资本市场在现代金融运行中牵一发而动全身，建设一个稳定健康运行的资本市场，是金融强国建设的重要支 撑。《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出，"提高资本市场制度包容性、 适应性，健全投资和融资相协调的资本市场功能"，为建立健全功能完善的资本市场、进一步提升我国资本市 场核心竞争力与国际影响力指明了方向。 迈向更高质量发展 党中央、国务院对资本市场发展高度重视。2023年中央金融工作会议提出，更好发挥资本市场枢纽功能。 2024年中央经济工作会议提出，深化资本市场投融资综合改革。再到"十五五"规划建议提出，提高资本市场 制度包容性、适应性。充分凸显出资本市场在金融强国建设中的重要性。 过去5年，我国资本市场改革持续向纵深推进，规模稳步扩大，体系不断健全，功能更好发挥，尤其是2025年 以来，A股市场总体稳健活跃，总市值超过100万亿元，实现了量的合理增长和质的有效提升。当前，世界百 年变局加速演进，内外部发展环境发生复杂深刻变化，都对资本市场功能作用发挥提出了新任务、新要求。 "十五五"时期加快建设金融强国，需要建设更高质量的资本市场。"强大的资本市场是建设金融强国的重要组 成部分。"中 ...

白银方面，多头资金通过 ETF 和实物交割方式大量增持驱动价格偏强运行，全球库存紧张的情况或未 真正缓解，但价格高位运行可能抑制工业领域的需求。随着 CME 等交易所提保短期资金情绪驱动价 格"非理性"的上涨走势有望终结带来降波，后续关注还需全球大宗商品指数调仓可能带来被动减持的回 调风险，在高波动率的行情下建议在 70 美元上方保持轻仓低多的思路。 当前白色金属（白银、铂族金属等）价格上涨，核心原因是市场供应持续紧张，再加上年底假期里市场 流动性差，把这个紧张效应放大了，而且中国这边的交易活跃度大幅提升，也是推动价格涨的重要因 素。之前黄金涨的时候，白银和铂族金属大多时候都跟不上，现在大家觉得这两种金属有补涨空间、相 对价值高，就愿意进场交易，而后面的快速拉升又吸引了更多人关注，尤其是突破关键技术位、创下新 高之后，热度更高了。 现在最关键的问题是，这种上涨势头明年能不能延续，还是说今年涨太多，明年得停下来整理，波动也 变小。要知道白银、铂金、钯金主要用在工业上，所以市场需求的反应很关键——价格和波动涨太猛， 最后可能让企业减少采购（也就是需求破坏），缓解市场紧张，这样对投资者的吸引力也会下降，但需 求端的 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is better to be on the sidelines [1][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to hold long positions cautiously; aluminum suggests more waiting and watching; nickel advises waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][10] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash are to be watched temporarily; polyolefins are expected to trade weakly sideways [1][18] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be slightly bullish; apples are slightly bullish; red dates are expected to rebound from the bottom [1][26] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are to be shorted on rallies in the near - term contracts and cautiously bullish in the far - term contracts; eggs' 02 contract is suitable for hedging on rallies for breeding enterprises; corn is to avoid chasing high in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain - holding entities; soybean meal is to be treated bullishly in the near - term and bearishly in the far - term; oils have limited rebound, with soybean and palm oil not recommended to chase the rally and rapeseed oil showing a weak trend [1][30] Core Viewpoints The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on macro - economic events, supply - demand relationships, cost - profit factors, and policy expectations. Different products face different market situations, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed according to their characteristics [1][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: In the medium to long term, it is optimistic. After December's PMI returned to expansion and with strong expectations of early policy support at the beginning of the year, the market may develop further. However, geopolitical and precious metal risks increase, and the potential for a callback should be noticed [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade sideways. The current low static returns of bonds, high - intensity long - term bond supply, and short - lived market reactions to positive factors do not provide sufficient reasons for institutions to increase bond allocations significantly [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: It is in a state of short - term balance between bulls and bears. The bearish logic is high imported Mongolian coal inventory, weak demand, while the bullish side relies on domestic mine production cuts and cost support. Short - term trading is recommended [7] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade in a range. The futures price is above the electric furnace off - peak electricity cost, with neutral valuation. After major meetings, the expected policies are stable, and the supply - demand pattern has weakened with increased production, decreased demand, and seasonal inventory accumulation [7] - **Glass**: It is better to wait and watch. Although there are positive expectations on the supply side, the demand is weak. There are still potential positive driving factors in the short term, but the overall market is complex, and the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash can be considered [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It has reached new highs and is recommended to hold long positions cautiously. In the short term, it is in a high - volatility and high - uncertainty stage, with potential over - valuation. However, in the long term, due to supply shortages and increased demand, it still has upward potential [10] - **Aluminum**: It has fallen from high levels. It is recommended to strengthen waiting and watching. The current supply - demand situation is weak, and the upward pressure is large, especially considering the seasonal impact and new production capacity [12] - **Nickel**: It is expected to trade sideways. It is advised to wait and watch or short on rallies. The overall nickel market is in a state of excess, and although there are short - term price rebounds, the long - term excess situation is expected to continue [13][14] - **Tin**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas supply disturbances and downstream demand recovery [14] - **Gold and Silver**: They are expected to trade in a range. Supported by the US GDP growth and Fed's policies, and with the weakening of the US economic data, their medium - term price centers are expected to rise. Gold is recommended for range trading, and silver is recommended to hold long positions with caution in new positions [15][16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply and demand are in a state of game. Although the downstream demand is strong, there are still uncertainties in supply, such as the situation of mines in Yichun [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to trade in a low - level range. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. However, due to low valuation and potential policy and cost - side disturbances, it may continue to trade in a wide low - level range [18] - **Caustic Soda**: It is in a low - level range and recommended to wait and watch temporarily. There are short - term delivery pressures, and the medium - term support depends on the improvement of related commodity atmospheres, but the rebound space is limited without production cuts [20] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade in a range. The current valuation is relatively high, and considering factors such as overseas supply and the Spring Festival effect, it is advised to be cautious and bearish in the short term [20] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade in a range. During the high - yield period of Southeast Asian rubber tapping, the supply increases, but there are also factors supporting the price. The inventory is rising, and the tire production capacity utilization rate is affected by holidays [21] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply and demand are both decreasing. The production is reduced due to maintenance, and the agricultural and industrial demand is also changing. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [22] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade in a range. The domestic supply is recovering, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is stable, but the traditional downstream demand is weak. The price is affected by geopolitical and port arrival factors [24] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to trade weakly sideways. In December, the price was under pressure due to supply and demand. Although there is a supply reduction expectation in the first quarter of 2026, the demand improvement is limited, and the upward space is restricted [24][25] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to wait and watch temporarily. The supply is in excess, but with the reduction of supply and cost support, the downward space may be limited [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to be slightly bullish. According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply and demand situation is adjusted, and with stable consumption and policy expectations, the price may maintain a slightly bullish trend [26][28] - **Apples**: They are expected to be slightly bullish. The market of late - harvested Fuji apples in storage is stable, and the sales in different producing areas have their own characteristics [28] - **Red Dates**: They are expected to rebound from the bottom. The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost over, and the market transactions in different regions have different performances [29][30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: In the short term, the price fluctuates and is under pressure. In the long term, although there is capacity reduction, it is still above the equilibrium level, and the cost is decreasing. It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish in the far - term contracts, and the industry can hedge on rallies [30][31] - **Eggs**: The current basis is low and the valuation is high. In the short term, the price may rise seasonally, but it is not advisable to short. In the medium - term, the new - laying pressure is small, and in the long - term, the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to hedge on rallies for the 02 and 03 contracts [33][34] - **Corn**: In the short term, the upward driving force of the spot price is insufficient, and it is not advisable to chase the high. In the long term, the demand will gradually release, and there is strong support at the bottom, but the supply - demand pattern in the 2025/2026 year is relatively loose, which limits the upward space [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to trade in a range. In the short term, the M2603 contract can be bought on dips, and attention should be paid to the pressure levels. The far - term 05 contract is affected by different factors and has different price trends [37][38] - **Oils**: The rebound of soybean and palm oil is limited, and it is not recommended to chase the rally. Rapeseed oil shows a weak trend, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated [38][43]

耶鲁大学终身金融学教授陈志武：学术巨擘与思想引航者 一、个人简介：跨文化学术桥梁的构建者 陈志武教授是美籍华人经济学家，1962年出生于湖南茶陵，现任香港大学香港人文社会研究所所长、经济及工商管理学院郑氏讲席教授（金融学），并兼任 北京大学光华管理学院、清华大学经济管理学院特聘教授。他以计算机科学为起点，1983年获中南工业大学（现中南大学）计算机学士学位，1986年获国防 科技大学系统工程硕士学位，后赴耶鲁大学深造，1990年获得金融学博士学位。其学术生涯横跨中美两国顶尖学府：1990-1995年任教于威斯康辛-麦迪逊大 学，1995-1999年晋升俄亥俄州立大学金融学副教授，1999年成为耶鲁大学管理学院金融学终身教授，直至2017年转任香港大学。 陈志武教授的演讲主题紧扣时代脉搏，兼具学术深度与现实指导性，近期核心主题包括： 经济转型中的金融价值：在2019年上海高级金融学院"SAIF-CAFR名家讲堂"上，他以《经济转型中的金融价值与发展》为题，剖析金融资本在21世纪的核心 地位，强调"资本回报率增长速度高于劳动收入增长速度"背景下，投资资产对个人财富积累的关键作用。他通过腾讯创始人马化腾的财富案例， ...

党的二十届四中全会，是在以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业关键时期召开的一次重要 会议，审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下称"十五 五"规划建议），系统谋划了我国"十五五"时期发展的战略蓝图，其中明确提出加快建设金融强国，为 金融工作开启新征程、续写新篇章提供了根本遵循和行动指南。作为现代金融体系的重要组成部分，期 货市场应积极发挥发现价格、管理风险、配置资源功能，深化业务转型升级，创新衍生品服务模式，将 专业优势转化为服务实体经济的具体实践。 2024年，国务院办公厅转发中国证监会等部门的《关于加强监管防范风险促进期货市场高质量发展的意 见》（下称《意见》），勾勒出了我国期货市场中长期发展的新路径。深入贯彻落实党的二十届四中全 会精神，全面落实《意见》部署，是期货行业当前和今后一个时期把准方向、谋划发展、推动实践的根 本指引。作为国有金融企业，宏源期货坚决把思想和行动统一到习近平总书记重要讲话精神和全会决策 部署上，深刻领会核心要义，准确把握实践要求，积极推动党的二十届四中全会精神和《意见》要求落 到实处，聚焦主责主业，坚持服务实体经济，主动对接服务国家战略 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-06 现货升贴水坚挺 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-36.25美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化650元/吨至23970元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水105元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日630元/吨至23870元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水5元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日680元/吨至23890元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水35元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-05沪锌主力合约开于23435元/吨，收于23820元/吨，较前一交易日525元/吨，全天交易日成交 141147手，全天交易日持仓89942手，日内价格最高点达到23930元/吨，最低点达到23400元/吨。 库存方面：截至2026-01-05，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为11.48万吨，较上期变化0.87万吨。截止2026-01-05，LME 锌库存为105850吨，较上一交易日变化-475吨。 市场分析 单边：谨慎偏多。 套利：中性。 风险 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 节后第 ...

文 | 预见能源 一边是中国石油将中油资本3%的股权无偿划给国家电网旗下公司，另一边是中油资本掏出11.29亿元， 买下国家电网的英大期货。 这远不止是一桩简单的资产买卖。它像一把钥匙，试图打开一扇门——门后是传统能源巨头在转型深水 区最渴望的东西：从依赖石油天然气"一条腿走路"，到构建一个融合电、氢、碳和金融工具的综合能源 生态圈。 这场"油电联姻"，揭示了中国能源央企竞争的新逻辑：未来的较量，不再是单纯比拼谁家油田储量多， 而是看谁能更巧妙地用资本纽带织就一张覆盖更广、韧性更强的产业网络。 一笔交易，两层深意 中石油和国家电网的这次握手，设计得很精巧，一步棋里藏着两个意图。 中石油为什么如此积极？这笔交易精准地对应了它向综合能源公司转型的几块核心拼图。 首先，是给激进的转型策略装上"安全气囊"。能源转型之路布满价格波动的陷阱，无论是油气还是新能 源电力，市场价格起伏都很大。拿下英大期货，意味着中石油可以更专业地使用期货、期权这些金融工 具，提前锁定未来收益或成本，把不可控的市场风险，转化为可计算、可管理的财务成本。这能让它在 开拓新业务时，胆子可以更大一点，步子可以更稳一点。 其次，是拿到进入电力核心生态 ...

2025年，我国期货市场在深化改革与创新开放的浪潮中，迈出了高质量发展的关键步伐。这一年，市场 格局持续优化、监管框架不断完善、业务模式与技术能力创新协同，共同勾勒出一条清晰的行业变革主 线，期货市场也在功能深化、结构优化和制度完善方面取得了系统性进步。展望2026年，期货市场将朝 着更加成熟、更具国际影响力的发展方向稳步前进。 市场规模、结构与集中度实现新跃升 2025年，期货市场在规模、参与者结构和行业格局三个维度均发生了深刻且积极的变化。 其中，期货市场成交量、资金量、客户权益和行业盈利情况均实现新突破。数据显示，2025年前11个 月，全国期货市场累计成交量为81.17亿手，累计成交额为675.45万亿元，已超过2024年全年水平；期货 市场资金总量与期货公司客户权益相继突破2万亿元，其中期货公司客户权益较2024年年底增长超 30%；2025年1—10月，期货公司累计营业收入和累计净利润分别为341.79亿元、97.13亿元，同比实现 增长。 市场结构优化是期货市场深度和广度显著提升的直观体现。2025年，期货市场结构向专业化、机构化不 断演进。数据显示，2025年期货公司特殊法人客户权益稳步增长， ...

243个日夜，我们共同绘制了2025年期货市场的运行图谱。 这一年，在与市场的同频共振里，我们怀抱期望，也学会坦然；历经挑战，也收获喜悦。每一次经历， 无论好坏，皆是成长的印记。 期货从业者敬业坚守：奔走田间厂矿感知产业冷暖，输出风控策略护航企业远行。 市场组织者务实果断：贴合产业优化制度规则，监测异动拨乱纠偏，打造高质量运行系统。 也因此，我们见证了市场发展与进步：资金总量突破2万亿元，有效客户数突破270万个，法人客户持仓 占比逾65%；上市公司参与度持续提升，保险机构加速入场，境外客户显著增长，交易者结构持续优 化。 面对不确定性，我们勇于创新突破，加速完善市场服务体系。2025年，期货和期权总数增至164个，成 熟期货品种基本实现期权全覆盖，系列期权、月均价期货增加市场厚度；程序化交易、互联网营销等管 理制度落地实施，市场更趋公平规范；行业加速数字化转型，投研、风险管理业务装上"智慧大脑"，服 务高效、策略精准。 2026年的篇章已悄然翻开，站在新的起点回望2025年，既有惊涛骇浪的考验，也有从容不迫的应对。 这一年，不确定性成为最鲜明的底色。从关税战的一波三折，到地缘局势的此消彼长，从去美元化的资 ...

徽商期货武汉营业部荣膺"武汉市钢材流通优秀服务商" 12月25日，第三届湖北钢铁供应链大会在武汉圆满落幕，本届大会以"破卷突围，向新而行"为核心主 题，旨在推动钢铁行业产业链共建，深化多维度供应链协同，破解行业内卷难题，构建价值共创的共赢 生态圈，共同探索湖北省钢铁行业高质量发展新路径。会上，徽商期货公司武汉营业部凭借在钢材流通 领域的专业服务和贡献，荣获"武汉市钢材流通优秀服务商"称号。 作为深耕武汉市场的专业期货服务机构，营业部自成立以来，始终聚焦本地钢材企业需求，提供专业的 期货、期权场内外风险管理工具服务，目前已与武汉及周边地区二十余家钢材企业建立了深厚的合作关 系。在钢材市场波动频繁的背景下，通过专业的风险管理方案，帮助钢材企业有效规避价格风险，稳定 生产经营。其专业团队为多家企业量身定制了套期保值方案，帮助企业实现风险管理体系搭建，提升企 业经营稳定性，助力企业从现货贸易商向产业链价值整合者成功转型。 （图/文：张凯锋） 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：戴明 SF006 徽商期货武汉营业部荣膺"武汉市钢材流通优秀服务商" 12月25日，第三届湖北钢铁供应链大会在武汉圆满落幕，本届 ...