1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: High oil prices bring continuous pressure, and the overall inventory is high. With the Middle - East conflict, high - oil prices, a rebounding US dollar, and a significant reduction in the Fed's expected interest rate cuts this year, the copper price may continue to adjust this week. The downstream consumption is gradually recovering as the copper price falls. The reference range for the Shanghai Copper 2605 contract is [88000, 98000] [4]. - **Aluminum**: Although high - oil prices create macro - pressure on non - ferrous metals, the fundamentals of the aluminum market are stronger than those of the copper market recently, and the copper - aluminum price ratio may continue to return. The threat to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz persists, giving strong support to overseas prices. Domestic demand is gradually recovering after the holiday, and terminal support is gradually strengthening. The reference range for the Shanghai Aluminum 2605 contract is [22500, 24500] [4]. - **Alumina**: There is still pressure on alumina supply and demand, but the Middle - East conflict and Guinea's bauxite policy have some impact on market expectations. Attention should be paid to the recent rebound. The reference range for the Alumina 2605 contract is [2800, 3250] [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: From March 13 - 20, 2026, the average price of copper in the Yangtze River Color Market dropped from 100630 yuan/ton to 95950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4680 yuan/ton; the average price of aluminum dropped from 25100 yuan/ton to 24030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1070 yuan/ton; the alumina spot price index rose from 2698 yuan/ton to 2752 yuan/ton, an increase of 54 yuan/ton [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The LME copper total inventory increased by 30525 tons to 342350 tons; the LME aluminum total inventory decreased by 15625 tons to 429675 tons; the AO warehouse receipt of alumina increased by 25143 tons to 399103 tons [8]. - **Weekly News**: LME updated a series of lending rules, which will take effect on March 17, 2026; Peru's proposal to shorten the mining concession period may affect investment; the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may lead to a shortage of raw materials in the GCC region; EU's carbon tariff on imported aluminum has led to a sharp drop in January's import volume [10]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Domestic Market**: In January - February 2026, the domestic economy started well, with strong import and export performance and a significant rebound in investment growth. However, the real estate market continued to adjust, and consumption rebounded but remained at a low level. The first - quarter economic "good start" is expected, but the overall situation is "strong supply and weak demand" [12]. - **Overseas Market**: On March 19, the Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%. After the meeting, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year significantly cooled, with the expected number of cuts dropping from 1.02 to 0.59 times [19]. - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: There will be adjustments to domestic refined oil prices on March 23; important economic data such as the euro - zone's March manufacturing PMI and China's January - February industrial enterprise profits will be released this week [20]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Market Analysis 3.3.1 Copper - **Spot Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the given content. - **Futures Market**: The report shows the historical trends of the positions of Shanghai copper futures, options, and international copper futures [27]. - **Overseas Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the given content. - **Market Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of copper inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, LME, COMEX, and Shanghai bonded areas [33]. - **Downstream Consumption**: From March 13 - 19, the operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 81.51%, a month - on - month increase of 8.6 percentage points. It is expected to further increase to 83.76% this week. The downstream cable and enameled wire industries also benefited from the copper price decline, with their operating rates steadily rising [35]. 3.3.2 Aluminum - **Domestic Market**: The report shows the historical trends of 6063 aluminum rod inventory and electrolytic aluminum spot inventory [38]. - **Futures Market**: The report shows the historical trends of the positions of alumina futures, options, aluminum futures, and options [41]. - **Overseas Market**: The report shows the historical trend of LME aluminum total inventory [44]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of March 19, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 62.9%. Different sub - industries showed different trends, with some industries' operating rates rising and some remaining stable [46]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: As of March 19, the SMM ADC12 price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 25000 yuan/ton. The price is expected to maintain a weak and narrow - range shock in the short term [49]. - **Cost and Profit**: The report shows the historical trends of electrolytic aluminum cost, profit, and the prices of related raw materials [51]. 3.3.3 Alumina - **Spot Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the given content. - **Futures Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the given content. - **Market Supply and Demand**: As of March 19, China's alumina production capacity was 113.9 million tons, and the operating capacity was 89 million tons, with an operating rate of 75.11%. The supply decreased slightly, while the demand increased slightly [61]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of March 20, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2819.19 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit was - 75.4 yuan/ton [62].