() 国泰君安期货 GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 中东局势升级下的铝市评估： AL潜在供应扰动较大 AO关注交易情绪 发布时间：2026年3月1日 铝品系 周末因中东局势快速升级，截至当前多方军事力量 对峙仍未有明显消褪（国际暗金价格略降温），且伊朗 官媒亦首次承认封锁霍尔木兹海峡，海外涉及多大宗商 品的断供窗口期可能打开。从铝产业链影响来看，主要 有以下3点： (1) 电解铝的海外供应减量扰动：中东（涉及伊 朗、阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯、巴林、卡塔尔、阿曼）电解 铝总产量接近可占到全球9.4%左右比重、氧化铝总产量 接近可占到3.2%，中东国家电解铝的出口占比偏高，多 国合计出口占其国内产量的比重接近65.5%，阿联酋、 伊朗、巴林出口占比更甚，静态评估预计影响到460万 吨年出口量，单月影响可能在38万吨左右（当前全球显 性库存数接近160万吨），如果海峡封锁时间过长，将 较大程度影响到中东以外的铝锭供应市场。 (2) 就上游来看,原料端-铝土矿及氧化铝的供应 链脆弱：中东国家在氧化铝及铝土矿上均处在严重依赖 海外供应的输入国地位，若运输渠道受限，也将影响中 东电解铝的生产及供应能力，除沙特阿拉伯之 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客 为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 23,845.00 -220.00 | +10.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -40.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,820.00 -65.00 | -50.00↓ +1.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 252,168.00 | +4008.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 340,118.00 | +35111.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 47,325.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 366,6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing "Spring Breeze Action" and employment assistance activities across China, particularly in Yunnan Province, focusing on enhancing employment services, integrating industry development, and addressing the employment needs of key groups through innovative service models [1]. Group 1: Industry Empowerment and Local Employment - Yunnan's human resources department is promoting the integration of industry and employment, leveraging unique plateau industries to support local job creation and stable income [2]. - In Weixin County, the local government is utilizing its 560,000 acres of bamboo resources to provide specialized training in bamboo cultivation and management, enabling residents to participate in various bamboo industry operations and achieve stable employment [2]. - The "Happiness Community" in Yanshan County is connecting with 39 large-scale vegetable planting bases to create over 50,000 job opportunities, facilitating local employment for returning labor [3]. Group 2: Cross-Regional Collaboration - Yunnan is deepening cooperation with regions like Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Fujian to match labor resources with quality job opportunities, exemplified by a series of recruitment fairs that brought together over 170 companies and offered thousands of job positions [7]. - The establishment of employment service platforms in various counties, such as the "Happiness Community" and the comprehensive employment service complex in Yiliang County, enhances job-seeking convenience for local residents [9]. Group 3: Service Innovation and Community Engagement - The return of migrant workers during the Spring Festival is seen as an opportunity to enhance grassroots governance and employment services, with Yunnan creating tailored employment service scenarios to meet local needs [12]. - Initiatives like the "Spring Breeze Send Jobs" night market and dynamic labor information tracking in various regions aim to effectively connect returning workers with job opportunities [13]. - Yunnan's employment bureau is actively engaging with returning migrant workers through various outreach efforts, including financial support and policy guidance, to ensure their successful reintegration into the local job market [17].

冠军矩阵多点开花，筑牢产业发展"压舱石"。在滨州的产业版图上，"冠军力量"已渗透到产业链各关键 环节，形成了覆盖多领域、贯通传统与新兴的发展格局。82项冠军产品覆盖8个产业，其中优势产业贡 献51项、新兴产业占据31项，这种多元化布局，让滨州现代产业体系抗风险能力更强、内生增长动力更 足。 先进制程逻辑芯片用电子级氢氟酸全国市场占有率第一、高韧性轻量化铝合金轮毂全国市场占有率第 一、宽幅纤维素纤维印染布全球市场占有率第一…… 近日，滨州产业"冠军榜"再添新绩，全球、全国冠军产品总数从67项增至82项，其中全球冠军19项。这 组沉甸甸的数据，不是简单的数量叠加，而是滨州深耕产业升级、构建现代产业体系的生动注脚，更是 全市"6638N"产业集群能级稳步跃升、市场主体活力持续迸发的集中彰显，见证着一座工业城市从"产 品领先"向"体系制胜"的转变。 产业兴则城市兴，产品强则产业强。冠军产品是产业竞争力的重要标杆，更是区域经济高质量发展 的"硬核支撑"。滨州82项"冠军产品"的突围，从来不是孤军奋战的偶然，而是多领域协同突破、全链条 精准发力的必然结果，勾勒出一幅传统产业筑基、新兴产业赋能、特色产业添彩的产业升级画卷。 ...

滨州日报/滨州网讯 黄河奔腾东渐，渤海潮涌向前。在黄河三角洲这片充满生机与活力的沃土上，滨州 锚定高质量发展首要任务，以产业集群建设为纲，正在走出一条实体经济筑基、创新驱动赋能、多元协 同共进的转型发展之路。 如今的滨州，已然构建起"6大千亿级优势产业集群为引领、6个国家级产业集群为标杆、38个省级产业 集群为骨干、N个新兴产业集群为潜力"的"6638N"现代产业集群新格局。这不仅是一幅脉络清晰的产业 发展图谱，更是驱动城市能级跃升、实现内涵式发展的核心引擎，彰显着黄河之滨、渤海之畔的实干担 当与奋进力量。 传统产业蝶变，集群赋能"老树发新芽" 高质量发展绝非另起炉灶，而是在传承中创新、在升级中突破。2025年，滨州六大千亿级优势产业集群 总营收达1.4万亿元。以集群化发展为抓手，滨州推动传统优势产业摆脱路径依赖，实现从"规模扩 张"到"质量引领"的历史性跨越。 新兴产业布局，蓄势赋能新质生产力 从铝产业涅槃重生，到纺织、化工等传统产业升级，滨州用集群化思维激活了传统产业内生动力， 让"老树"萌发"新芽"、绽放"新枝"。 细分领域突围，"小集群"撑起"大格局"产业集群的活力，既在于"顶天立地"的千亿级支柱，更 ...

通过组团式帮扶实现教育资源与产业发展深度联动，最终达成"富矿精开"，是2024年起贵州省提出的质 量强省创新举措。 1月26日，围绕这一话题，贵州省政协委员、贵州民族大学党委书记吕国富在接受记者提问时，亮出随 身携带的"宝贝"——一小块黑磷。 "贵州省坐拥丰富磷矿，以前相关企业想吃'高精尖'红利，却苦于没技术。现在这个难题已被攻破，提 纯后的黑磷新材料有望撬动千亿级产业。"吕国富介绍，为破解贵州磷化工产业技术痛点，贵州省委、 省政府出面搭台，邀请来自北京大学、清华大学等顶尖学府的"学术大咖"到贵州开展学科帮扶。经过探 索，"精准滴灌"的"民大+名校+名企"模式逐步成熟。目前，贵州民族大学的化学工程与技术学科正逐步 成为参与产业升级的"探路人"；以前"论吨卖"的磷矿石，现在成了"按克算"的新材料。 转自：中国质量报 推动转型升级 促进质量提升 2026年贵州省两会代表、委员纵论以科技创新支撑质量强省 □ 本报记者 李 嘉 1月26日至31日，在贵州省2026年两会上，来自不同领域、不同界别的人大代表、政协委员直面媒体提 问，围绕技术帮扶、科技创新、产业振兴等话题，分享履职实践，纵论以科技创新推动质量强省建设。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For alumina, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of stable supply and weak demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of excessive supply and weak demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 23,385 yuan/ton, a decrease of 570 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan [2] - The main - second - contract spread of Shanghai Aluminum is - 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan; the main - second - contract spread of alumina is - 198 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan [2] - The main - contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum are 207,370 lots, a decrease of 17,386 lots; the main - contract positions of alumina are 359,707 lots, a decrease of 15,991 lots [2] - LME aluminum canceled warrants are 54,525 tons, unchanged; the total inventory of alumina is 265,223 tons, an increase of 42,736 tons [2] - The three - month quotation of LME electrolytic aluminum is 3,059 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 40 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory is 495,175 tons, a decrease of 8,014 tons; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.64, a decrease of 0.09 [2] - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 21,915 yuan/ton, a decrease of 680 yuan; the registered warrants of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 66,791 tons, unchanged [2] - The main - second - contract spread of cast aluminum alloy is - 220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 340 yuan; the inventory of Shanghai Aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 216,771 tons, an increase of 19,718 tons [2] - The main - contract positions of cast aluminum alloy are 4,361 lots, a decrease of 169 lots; the inventory of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 74,068 tons, an increase of 1,635 tons [2] - The warrants of Shanghai Aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 150,289 tons, a decrease of 423 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 23,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 420 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,555 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 23,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum is 23,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 1,685 yuan/ton, an increase of 480 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan [2] - The aluminum premium and discount in Shanghai Wumao is - 170 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the LME aluminum premium and discount is - 27.72 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.73 US dollars; the basis of alumina is - 235 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of pre - baked anodes in the northwest region is 5,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national alumina start - up rate is 83.49%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points [2] - The alumina output is 801.08 tons, a decrease of 12.72 tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate is 84.00%, a decrease of 1.00 percentage point [2] - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 tons, an increase of 25.33 tons; the alumina supply - demand balance is 28.90 tons, an increase of 2.32 tons [2] - The average price of broken primary aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 18,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan; the average price of broken primary aluminum in Shandong metal scrap is 17,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan [2] - China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments is 194,102.07 tons, an increase of 31,482.14 tons; China's export volume of aluminum scrap and fragments is 70.80 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons [2] - The export volume of alumina is 21.00 tons, an increase of 4.00 tons; the import volume of alumina is 22.78 tons, an increase of 31.36 tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 77.20 tons, an increase of 3.00 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 189,196.58 tons, an increase of 43,086.86 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,536.20 tons, an increase of 12.00 tons [2] - The export volume of primary aluminum is 37,575.30 tons, a decrease of 15,472.39 tons; the aluminum product output is 613.56 tons, an increase of 20.46 tons [2] - The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 54.00 tons, a decrease of 3.00 tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 68.40 tons, a decrease of 1.60 tons [2] - The export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.55 tons, a decrease of 0.51 tons; the total built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126.00 tons, unchanged [2] - The aluminum alloy output is 182.50 tons, unchanged; the national real estate climate index is 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 [2] - The automobile output is 341.15 vehicles, a decrease of 10.75 vehicles [2] 3.5 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 40.04%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 31.38%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 22.18%, a decrease of 0.0399 percentage points; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.88, a decrease of 0.0161 [2] 3.6 Industry News - The central bank held the 2026 credit market work conference, focusing on supporting key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises [2] - The US January "small non - farm" ADP employment number was lower than expected, with only 22,000 new private - sector jobs added in January [2] - The US January ISM services PMI index slightly declined to 53.8, better than market expectations, but new order growth slowed and export orders shrank at the fastest rate since March 2023 [2] - Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, emphasizing the importance of the Taiwan issue and the need for the US to handle arms sales to Taiwan carefully [2] - According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in January were 900,000, a year - on - year increase of 1%. Tesla China's wholesale sales were 69,129, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [2] - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, said that efforts should be made to ensure the basic housing needs of young people, develop affordable rental housing, public rental housing, and配售型保障性住房, and support local governments to appropriately increase the area of affordable housing according to the needs of multi - child families [2]

Group 1 - The domestic non-ferrous metal market showed a downward trend, with the main contract for aluminum futures opening at 23,800.00 CNY/ton and experiencing a decline of 1.92% by midday, reaching a low of 23,435.00 CNY/ton [1] - The overall performance of aluminum prices is weak, with institutions indicating that the market is in a phase of adjustment due to reduced new orders from downstream aluminum processing enterprises and a general decline in operating rates as the Spring Festival approaches [2] - Domestic aluminum production capacity has slightly increased, leading to a rise in inventory levels, while the demand side remains weak, suggesting that aluminum prices will primarily experience fluctuations during this off-peak consumption season [2] Group 2 - The recent ADP employment data from the U.S. fell significantly below market expectations, indicating a slowdown in the labor market, which has led to market participants adopting a wait-and-see approach for clearer economic guidance [2] - Inventory levels for aluminum are at their highest in nearly three years, contributing to a seasonal weakness in supply and demand dynamics [2] - The aluminum industry in the Middle East, particularly in Iran, faces fundamental vulnerabilities due to imbalances in internal capacity and raw material self-sufficiency, as well as an inefficient energy system, which may affect market stability [2]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum industry is experiencing a significant divergence in the pricing and profitability of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, with electrolytic aluminum profits rising sharply while alumina prices remain under pressure, leading to a clear shift in profit distribution within the industry [1][5]. Group 1: Electrolytic Aluminum Market - Since late December last year, the price of electrolytic aluminum has significantly increased, with the Shanghai aluminum futures price reaching a historical high of 26,185 yuan/ton in January [1]. - The profitability of the electrolytic aluminum sector has been supported by rising futures prices, despite weak demand from downstream processing enterprises [2]. - The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum continues to increase slightly, with daily output around 12.3 million tons, while downstream demand has weakened due to seasonal factors and high prices [2][4]. Group 2: Alumina Market - The alumina sector is facing severe structural oversupply, with nominal production capacity nearing 110 million tons and operational capacity around 93 million tons, significantly exceeding the demand from electrolytic aluminum [4]. - The average price of alumina has dropped from 2,750 yuan/ton to 2,650 yuan/ton since mid-December, falling below the industry average cost [3]. - Despite some production cuts and maintenance in alumina plants, the average daily output remains above 260,000 tons, indicating persistent high levels of supply [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The divergence in pricing and profitability between electrolytic aluminum and alumina is attributed to differences in capacity constraints, demand structure, and the nature of the products [5][6]. - The lack of a profit-sharing mechanism within the aluminum industry means that even with high profits in electrolytic aluminum, aluminum smelters are reluctant to accept high-priced alumina [4][5]. - The current market structure and supply constraints suggest that the disparity in profitability between electrolytic aluminum and alumina will continue until there are substantial changes in production capacity and profit distribution mechanisms [6].

7根肋骨骨折， 他却说"帮扶不 能停"｜东西协 作故事⑤_南方 +_南方plus 一周至少深入三 次基层，且从不 提前打招呼—— 这是广西德保县 挂职县委常委、 副县长高文忠一 贯的工作风 格，"坐在办公 室里发现不了问 题，提前打了招 呼，更看不到真 问题。"在他看 来，干部必须要 放下架子、扑下 身子，才能服务 好人民。 作为深圳市坪山 区选派至德保的 协作干部，高文 忠自2024年2月 赴任以来，始终 以务实担当的作 风奋战在粤桂协 作最前沿，用实 际行动助力乡村 振兴和区域协调 发展。去年年底 出差途中，高文 忠遭遇严重交通 事故，导致7根 肋骨及胸椎骨 折，由于心系帮 扶工作，高文忠 在未完全康复的 情况下毅然提前 返岗，继续奔走 基层一线。 干在实处 政策资金精准落 地 铝项目年产值将 达20亿元 山清水秀，民风 淳朴，但经济与 产业发展滞后 ——这是高文忠 初到德保时的第 一印象，也是当 地长期面临的客 观现实困境。 "有高文忠这样 的干部，百色协 作事业必能做 高文忠（左二）正与村民交流。 好。"在前不久 召开的东西部协 作培训会议上， 广东省农业农村 厅党组成员、副 厅长陈东作出了 这样的评 ...