Report Title - "Middle East Impact Continues, Copper and Aluminum Prices Diverge - Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report 2026.03.30" [1] Report Author - Liu Peiyang [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Copper**: High oil prices bring continuous pressure, European and American stock markets are under pressure to adjust, and the overall inventory is high. Copper prices may continue to adjust this week. The reference range for the Shanghai Copper 2605 contract is [90,000, 98,000] [4]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - pressure from high oil prices is unfavorable to non - ferrous metals, but the fundamentals of the aluminum market are stronger than those of the copper market recently, and the copper - aluminum price ratio may continue to return. The reference range for the Shanghai Aluminum 2605 contract is [23,500, 25,000] [4]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand pressure of alumina remains, but the Middle East conflict and Guinea's bauxite policy have a certain impact on market expectations. Pay attention to the recent rebound. The reference range for the Alumina 2605 contract is [2,800, 3,100] [4]. Summary by Directory 01. Market Review - **Weekly Market Data (2026.3.20 - 2026.3.27)**: For copper, the average price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Spot Market decreased from 95,950 yuan/ton to 95,690 yuan/ton; the futures closing price of the main contract of CU increased from 94,740 yuan/ton to 95,930 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the average price of A00 aluminum in the Yangtze River Spot Market decreased from 24,030 yuan/ton to 23,870 yuan/ton; the futures closing price of the main contract of AL decreased from 24,020 yuan/ton to 23,935 yuan/ton. For alumina, the spot price index increased from 2,752 yuan/ton to 2,776 yuan/ton; the futures closing price of the main contract of A0 decreased from 3,041 yuan/ton to 2,930 yuan/ton [8]. - **Weekly News**: Chile's Codelco expects the supply disruption caused by the Middle East conflict to increase its copper production cost by about 5%, and sets the 2026 copper production target range at 133 - 136 million tons. Iran attacked two aluminum production facilities in the Middle East, exacerbating the already tense global supply situation. The San Ciprian electrolytic aluminum plant of Alcoa has restored 90% of its production capacity and plans to reach full - load production by mid - year [11]. 02. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Overseas Market**: The Middle East conflict continues. Before the attack, the international aluminum spot market had a high premium. The London Exchange aluminum price premium was around $60/ton, reaching a 19 - year high. The US aluminum ingot spot premium also remained at a historical high of over $2,293/ton [13]. - **This Week's Macroeconomic Forecast**: Key events and data include the Middle East war situation, China's March official manufacturing PMI, the US March ISM manufacturing index, the US February durable goods orders final value, the US March non - farm payrolls change, and the US March unemployment rate [14]. 03. Non - Ferrous Metals Market Analysis 1.1 Copper - **Spot Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the report. - **Futures Market**: Presented the historical trends of the positions of Shanghai copper futures, options, and international copper futures from 2022 to 2026 [20]. - **Overseas Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the report. - **Market Inventory**: Presented the historical trends of LME copper inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory, COMEX copper inventory, and Shanghai bonded area copper inventory from 2022 to 2026 [26]. - **Downstream Consumption**: From March 20th to 26th, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 83.17%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points. It is expected that the operating rate will increase by 0.59 percentage points to 83.76% this week [28]. 1.2 Aluminum - **Domestic Market**: Presented the historical trends of electrolytic aluminum spot inventory and 6063 aluminum rod inventory from 2022 to 2026 [31]. - **Futures Market**: Presented the historical trends of aluminum futures, options, alumina futures, and alumina options positions from 2022 to 2026 [34]. - **Overseas Market**: Presented the historical trend of LME aluminum total inventory from 2022 to 2026 [37]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of March 26th, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1.1 percentage points to 64% month - on - month, but the overall level was still lower than the same period last year [39]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: As of March 26th, the SMM ADC12 price decreased by 700 yuan/ton to 24,300 yuan/ton. The cost support weakened, demand was weak, and it is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term [43]. - **Cost and Profit**: Presented the historical trends of electrolytic aluminum cost, profit, and the prices of related raw materials from 2025 to 2026 [45]. 1.3 Alumina - **Spot Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the report. - **Futures Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the report. - **Market Supply and Demand**: As of March 26th, China's alumina production capacity was 113.9 million tons, the operating capacity was 89 million tons, and the operating rate was 75.14%. The demand for alumina slightly increased [55]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of the week of March 27th, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2,817.16 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit was - 41.75 yuan/ton [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term tin prices may show a weakening oscillation due to the Middle - East war situation suppressing market risk appetite. However, the medium - to - long - term bullish logic remains. If the conflict shows signs of ending, long positions can be established at low prices [1]. Nickel - The Indonesian export tax news has brought short - term sentiment boost, but the macro - economic outlook is uncertain. The raw material supply is tight, and the inventory digestion is insufficient. The nickel price is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract referring to 134,000 - 142,000 [2]. Stainless Steel - The cost logic of stainless steel is strong recently. The news and the tight raw material supply provide support. The steel mill production is increasing, and the demand is gradually recovering but the terminal acceptance is still weak. The price is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, with the main contract referring to 14,200 - 14,800 [5]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply disturbance has boosted market sentiment. The fundamental reality has weakened marginally in the short - term but still has resilience. The price is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract referring to 160,000 - 172,000 [7]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in an over - capacity stage, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. The short - term main contract is expected to run in the range of 2,800 - 3,100 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price is supported by supply - side constraints. The domestic market is expected to enter the de - stocking cycle in April, and the core operating range of Shanghai aluminum this week is expected to be 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy price is driven by the cost of electrolytic aluminum. It may show a pattern of weak supply and demand in the second quarter, and the short - term price is expected to run in the range of 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton, following the fluctuation of electrolytic aluminum [11]. Copper - The copper price is in an adjustment phase. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, and the inventory pressure has weakened. But the price is still suppressed. In the long - term, the long - cycle logic of copper supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged, and there may be opportunities for long - term long positions. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure at 97,000 - 98,000 [13]. Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand. The contradiction lies between the mine and smelting ends. The smelting cost supports the zinc price. The downstream may replenish inventory in the peak season, and the export space may be opened. The zinc price is expected to have limited room for further decline, and opportunities for price rebound on the right - hand side can be arranged [15]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon has cost support at the bottom and hedging and arbitrage pressure at the top. The supply is expected to increase seasonally in the second quarter, and the demand is expected to be stable. The price is expected to oscillate around 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [16]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a cycle of oversupply, and the price will continue to be under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.17%, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 10%. The import loss decreased by 19.10% [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 and 2605 - 2606 decreased, while those of 2606 - 2607 and 2607 - 2608 increased [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, tin ore imports decreased by 3.69%, SMM refined tin production decreased by 23.91%, and refined tin imports increased by 96.91% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory, social inventory, and SHEF warehouse inventory decreased, while LME inventory remained unchanged [1]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.25%, and the import loss of futures decreased by 23.75% [2]. - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production**: The cost of integrated MHP production of electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.69%, while that of integrated high - grade nickel matte production increased by 11.34% [2]. - **New Energy Material Prices**: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 0.03%, and that of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.95% [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 remained unchanged, 2605 - 2606 increased by 10, and 2606 - 2607 decreased by 80 [2]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 7.45%, and imports increased by 84.63%. SHFE inventory and social inventory increased, while bonded area inventory decreased [2]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained unchanged, and the basis remained unchanged [5]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged [5]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 increased by 10, 2605 - 2606 increased by 20, and 2606 - 2607 decreased by 10 [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel production increased by 44.07%, and stainless steel net exports increased significantly [5]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social inventory and cold - rolled social inventory increased slightly [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.96% and 0.98% respectively. The basis decreased by 1391.43% [7]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 decreased by 1860, 2605 - 2606 decreased by 380, and 2606 - 2607 increased by 380 [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, lithium carbonate production decreased by 15.13%, and demand decreased by 10.57% [7]. - **Inventory**: Total lithium carbonate inventory, downstream inventory, and smelter inventory decreased [7]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 1.28%, and the import loss of electrolytic aluminum increased by 286.2 [9]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of AL 2604 - 2605 decreased by 15, AL 2605 - 2606 increased by 5, and AL 2606 - 2607 increased by 15 [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, alumina production decreased by 10.63%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 8.91% [9]. - **Inventory**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.75%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.52% [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.41%, and the spreads of 2604 - 2605 decreased by 75 [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 41.31%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 30.99% [11]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 12.24% [11]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.01%, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 316.57% [13]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 increased by 50, 2605 - 2606 increased by 40, and 2606 - 2607 decreased by 20 [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, electrolytic copper production decreased by 3.13%, and imports decreased by 24.95% [13]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory, bonded area inventory, and SHFE inventory decreased, while LME inventory increased slightly [13]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 1.62%, and the import loss decreased by 80.83 [15]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of 2604 - 2605 decreased by 20, 2605 - 2606 increased by 5, and 2606 - 2607 increased by 5 [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, refined zinc production decreased by 9.99%, and imports decreased by 81.26% [15]. - **Inventory**: Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 6.24%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.24% [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of various industrial silicon products remained unchanged, and the basis increased [16]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of the main contract decreased by 1.26%, and the spreads of the near - month to the first - continuous contract decreased by 30% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, national industrial silicon production decreased by 26.58%, and the export volume decreased by 27.44% [16]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang factory inventory decreased by 4.90%, and social inventory increased by 1.27% [16]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average prices of N - type polysilicon products remained unchanged, and the N - type material basis decreased by 3.33% [17]. - **Futures Price and Month - to - Month Spread**: The main contract increased by 0.39%, and the spreads of the near - month to the first - continuous contract decreased by 242.86% [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, polysilicon production decreased by 23.61%, and the export volume increased by 20.51% [17]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 3.49%, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.42% [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - environment shows a pattern of "stable manufacturing and weak services" in the US, with overall expansion momentum slowing, high inflation restricting interest - rate cut space, and the eurozone's service sector decline dragging down overall recovery. The macro - environment suppresses industrial metals in the short term, but the resilience of the manufacturing industry provides bottom support [5][16]. - The current situation between the US and Iran is in a delicate stage where the "negotiation window period" and the "military preparation period" coexist. In the short term, oil prices and bulk commodities will still be dominated by geopolitical sentiment. Aluminum prices may fluctuate and adjust mainly due to the unclear situation in the Middle East [5][13]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has a change in production capacity, and downstream demand continues to pick up. However, the overall level of consumption recovery is still not as good as the same period last year, and the recovery intensity is intertwined with macro - environmental disturbances [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The US March S&P Global Composite PMI preliminary value dropped to 51.4, a new low in 11 months. Manufacturing and services showed a differentiated trend, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 52.4 and the services PMI dropping to 51.1 [5]. - Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to April 6th. The US and Iran are in a situation where negotiation and military preparation coexist, and the situation is highly uncertain [5]. - Domestically, the production capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry has changed, downstream demand continues to pick up, and the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has increased. However, the overall consumption level is still lower than the same period last year, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased again, but the increase is smaller than before [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: The production capacity of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has increased, and downstream demand continues to pick up [8]. - Bearish factors: There is still uncertainty in the US - Iran conflict, and the inventory of social electrolytic aluminum continues to accumulate [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis 3.3.1 US - Iran Conflict - The US proposed a 15 - item plan to end the conflict, covering nuclear plans, missile capabilities, and regional issues. In exchange, Iran may get sanctions lifted and support for civilian nuclear projects. The US is considering a one - month cease - fire for further negotiations [10]. - Military options are still on the table. Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities, and the US Department of Defense is formulating a "final blow" military option. Iran has organized over a million people for ground combat and warned of opening a new front [11]. - Iran responded, clearly putting forward four requirements, including stopping aggression, ensuring no recurrence of war, compensating for war losses, and ending the actions of resistance organizations [12]. 3.3.2 Manufacturing and Services in the US and Europe - In the US, the March S&P Global Composite PMI preliminary value dropped to 51.4. The manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, and the services PMI dropped to 51.1. The US economic data shows a "stable manufacturing, weak services" differentiation, with overall expansion momentum slowing, and high inflation restricting interest - rate cut space [14][16]. - In the eurozone, the March S&P Global Composite PMI dropped from 51.9 to 50.5. The manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4, and the services PMI dropped from 51.9 to 50.1. The service sector decline drags down the overall recovery [16]. 3.3.3 Bauxite Supply - In February, China's bauxite production was 4.7567 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 10.92% and a year - on - year increase of 6.13%. In December, China's imported bauxite was 14.67 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.88% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.02%. The global bauxite supply in 2026 is expected to be loose, with an estimated increase of 40 - 50 million tons mainly in Guinea [19]. - Guinea is discussing controlling the amount of ore put on the market. China's imports of bauxite and its concentrates in February increased by 18.1% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to February increased by 18.7% year - on - year [20]. 3.3.4 Alumina Market - Some domestic alumina enterprises have carried out maintenance and production cuts, which has supported the alumina price in the short term. However, the suppression of new domestic and foreign production capacity is obvious, and more overseas alumina may flow into China. The alumina price still faces upward pressure [22]. 3.3.5 Electrolytic Aluminum Production - In February, domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 3.46 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.91%. Overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.37 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In March, the operating capacity of new overseas electrolytic aluminum projects is expected to continue to rise, but there is a risk of production cuts in Mozambique [27]. 3.3.6 Aluminum Processing - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 2.1 percentage points to 64%, and the operating rates of various sectors showed a differentiated recovery, but the overall level is still lower than the same period last year [29]. 3.3.7 Real Estate Market - In early 2026, the real estate market showed signs of adjustment slowdown. Investment, construction, new construction, and sales data all showed different degrees of decline, but the decline in housing prices narrowed, and the number of rising cities increased. The government is expected to introduce more policies to support the demand side of the real estate market [34]. 3.3.8 New Energy Vehicles and Photovoltaic - In February, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in China decreased by 32% year - on - year and 22.1% month - on - month. From January to February, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 19.1% year - on - year [36]. - From January to February 2026, the new photovoltaic installed capacity in China was 32.48 GW, a 17.71% decrease compared with the same period in 2025. The cumulative installed capacity reached 123 GW, a 33.2% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2026 will remain at a high level, which will provide important support for the demand for non - ferrous metals [36]. 3.3.9 Aluminum Inventory - LME aluminum inventory continued to decline, reaching 423,075 tons. SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 8.56% to 452,044 tons in the week of March 20th [39]. - The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate, but the accumulation rate slowed down. As of March 26th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major Chinese markets was 1.371 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons compared with Monday of this week [43]. 3.3.10 Recycled Aluminum - In February, the operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry dropped significantly, mainly due to the Spring Festival holiday, environmental protection control, and weak demand. In March, the operating rate is expected to recover, but the recovery rhythm depends on the actual fulfillment of terminal orders [47]. - This week, the operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry continued to rise, but the overall level has not returned to the pre - holiday level. The release of production capacity is restricted by factors such as insufficient terminal orders and high raw material prices [51]. 3.3.11 Aluminum Import and Export - In 2026, from January to February, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased by 12.8% year - on - year, and the import decreased slightly. The export - strong and import - stable pattern provides an important outlet for the digestion of domestic aluminum industry production capacity [57]. 3.3.12 Recycled Aluminum Alloy Inventory - As of March 27th, the social inventory of domestic recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 0.89 million tons month - on - month to 4.49 million tons, and the in - factory inventory decreased by 0.11 million tons month - on - month to 8.04 million tons [60]. 3.4后市研判 - The price of aluminum alloy will follow the price of electrolytic aluminum and continue to adjust [64]. - In the case of the unclear situation in the Middle East, aluminum prices in the Shanghai Futures Exchange will mainly fluctuate and adjust [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: High oil prices bring continuous pressure, and the overall inventory is high. With the Middle - East conflict, high - oil prices, a rebounding US dollar, and a significant reduction in the Fed's expected interest rate cuts this year, the copper price may continue to adjust this week. The downstream consumption is gradually recovering as the copper price falls. The reference range for the Shanghai Copper 2605 contract is [88000, 98000] [4]. - **Aluminum**: Although high - oil prices create macro - pressure on non - ferrous metals, the fundamentals of the aluminum market are stronger than those of the copper market recently, and the copper - aluminum price ratio may continue to return. The threat to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz persists, giving strong support to overseas prices. Domestic demand is gradually recovering after the holiday, and terminal support is gradually strengthening. The reference range for the Shanghai Aluminum 2605 contract is [22500, 24500] [4]. - **Alumina**: There is still pressure on alumina supply and demand, but the Middle - East conflict and Guinea's bauxite policy have some impact on market expectations. Attention should be paid to the recent rebound. The reference range for the Alumina 2605 contract is [2800, 3250] [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: From March 13 - 20, 2026, the average price of copper in the Yangtze River Color Market dropped from 100630 yuan/ton to 95950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4680 yuan/ton; the average price of aluminum dropped from 25100 yuan/ton to 24030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1070 yuan/ton; the alumina spot price index rose from 2698 yuan/ton to 2752 yuan/ton, an increase of 54 yuan/ton [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The LME copper total inventory increased by 30525 tons to 342350 tons; the LME aluminum total inventory decreased by 15625 tons to 429675 tons; the AO warehouse receipt of alumina increased by 25143 tons to 399103 tons [8]. - **Weekly News**: LME updated a series of lending rules, which will take effect on March 17, 2026; Peru's proposal to shorten the mining concession period may affect investment; the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may lead to a shortage of raw materials in the GCC region; EU's carbon tariff on imported aluminum has led to a sharp drop in January's import volume [10]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Domestic Market**: In January - February 2026, the domestic economy started well, with strong import and export performance and a significant rebound in investment growth. However, the real estate market continued to adjust, and consumption rebounded but remained at a low level. The first - quarter economic "good start" is expected, but the overall situation is "strong supply and weak demand" [12]. - **Overseas Market**: On March 19, the Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%. After the meeting, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year significantly cooled, with the expected number of cuts dropping from 1.02 to 0.59 times [19]. - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: There will be adjustments to domestic refined oil prices on March 23; important economic data such as the euro - zone's March manufacturing PMI and China's January - February industrial enterprise profits will be released this week [20]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Market Analysis 3.3.1 Copper - **Spot Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the given content. - **Futures Market**: The report shows the historical trends of the positions of Shanghai copper futures, options, and international copper futures [27]. - **Overseas Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the given content. - **Market Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of copper inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, LME, COMEX, and Shanghai bonded areas [33]. - **Downstream Consumption**: From March 13 - 19, the operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 81.51%, a month - on - month increase of 8.6 percentage points. It is expected to further increase to 83.76% this week. The downstream cable and enameled wire industries also benefited from the copper price decline, with their operating rates steadily rising [35]. 3.3.2 Aluminum - **Domestic Market**: The report shows the historical trends of 6063 aluminum rod inventory and electrolytic aluminum spot inventory [38]. - **Futures Market**: The report shows the historical trends of the positions of alumina futures, options, aluminum futures, and options [41]. - **Overseas Market**: The report shows the historical trend of LME aluminum total inventory [44]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of March 19, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 62.9%. Different sub - industries showed different trends, with some industries' operating rates rising and some remaining stable [46]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: As of March 19, the SMM ADC12 price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 25000 yuan/ton. The price is expected to maintain a weak and narrow - range shock in the short term [49]. - **Cost and Profit**: The report shows the historical trends of electrolytic aluminum cost, profit, and the prices of related raw materials [51]. 3.3.3 Alumina - **Spot Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the given content. - **Futures Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the given content. - **Market Supply and Demand**: As of March 19, China's alumina production capacity was 113.9 million tons, and the operating capacity was 89 million tons, with an operating rate of 75.11%. The supply decreased slightly, while the demand increased slightly [61]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of March 20, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2819.19 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit was - 75.4 yuan/ton [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Alumina - The alumina main contract fluctuates strongly, with increasing open interest, spot discount, and weakening basis. The raw material side shows a seasonal recovery in bauxite mining in Guinea, but due to geopolitical conflicts, shipping capacity decreases and shipping costs rise, leading to only a small decline in bauxite prices. On the supply side, smelters have gradually resumed work, with the industry operating at a relatively high level, and the domestic alumina supply remains high, with a long - term oversupply. On the demand side, the geopolitical disputes in the Middle East limit electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the region, affecting global supply and reducing alumina demand in the Middle East, which may impact domestic export demand. Domestically, the replacement of electrolytic aluminum production capacity gradually ramps up, and the demand for alumina is stable. Overall, the alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of oversupply and stable demand. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding. The view is to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract fluctuates, with increasing open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. On the raw material side, alumina prices rise due to geopolitical factors, while aluminum prices remain strong, and aluminum smelters still have good profit margins. On the supply side, the capacity replacement projects of electrolytic aluminum plants are gradually put into production, and with good smelting profits, the upstream operation is expected to remain at a high level, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is stable. On the demand side, the downstream operation has improved during the week, but high aluminum prices still suppress consumption continuity. Downstream aluminum processing enterprises mostly adopt a strategy of buying on dips, the market demand has slightly recovered, the downstream inventory has decreased, and the accumulation rate of electrolytic aluminum social inventory has slowed down. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a stage of stable supply and slightly recovering demand. In terms of options, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.65, a month - on - month increase of 0.0254, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the green bars are slightly converging. The view is to conduct short - term long trading with a light position on dips, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Cast Aluminum - The cast aluminum main contract fluctuates downward, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. On the supply side, the price of scrap aluminum fluctuates upward with aluminum prices. Scrap aluminum holders mostly adopt a strategy of selling at high prices. Since recycled aluminum enterprises were actively purchasing in the early stage, they currently adopt a strategy of purchasing on demand, resulting in a mediocre performance in the scrap aluminum spot market. In terms of production, cast aluminum production dropped significantly in February and is expected to rebound significantly after resuming work in March, so the domestic cast aluminum alloy supply will increase. On the demand side, downstream die - casting plants, having replenished their inventories in the early stage, currently also adopt a strategy of purchasing on a just - in - time basis and mostly take a wait - and - see attitude, resulting in a dull trading performance in the cast aluminum alloy spot market. Overall, the fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a stage of increasing supply and mediocre demand. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the green bars are slightly converging. The view is to conduct short - term long trading with a light position on dips, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,800 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,048 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quotation is 3,364.50 US dollars/ton, down 27.50 US dollars, and the LME aluminum inventory is 440,325 tons, down 2,500 tons. The Shanghai aluminum main - second contract spread is - 135 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the alumina main - second contract spread is - 38 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan. The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 307,325 lots, down 3,577 lots; the open interest of the alumina main contract is 273,929 lots, down 6,625 lots [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 24,510 yuan/ton, down 390 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,680 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country is 25,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of AOO aluminum in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 24,960 yuan/ton, down 510 yuan. The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 1,405 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 290 yuan, down 200 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national alumina operating rate is 82.10%, down 0.39 percentage points; the alumina production is 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the alumina production capacity utilization rate is 83.00%, down 1.00 percentage point. The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons; the alumina supply - demand balance is 28.90 million tons, up 2.32 million tons. The average price of crushed primary aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 19,250 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the average price in Shandong metal scrap is 18,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. China's import volume of aluminum scrap and waste is 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; the export volume is 70.80 tons, down 0.73 tons. The export volume of alumina is 21.00 million tons, up 4.00 million tons; the import volume is 22.78 million tons, down 0.46 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the export volume is 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons. The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,540.20 million tons, unchanged. The electrolytic aluminum operating rate is 98.93%, up 0.04 percentage points; the aluminum product production is 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 43.00 million tons, down 11.00 million tons. The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 27.08 million tons, down 39.41 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.55 million tons, down 0.51 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126.00 million tons, unchanged. The National Housing Climate Index is 91.45, down 0.44. The aluminum alloy production is 182.50 million tons, unchanged. The automobile production is 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 22.28%, up 0.28 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 31.29%, down 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main at - the - money option is 22.72%, down 0.0190 percentage points; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.68, up 0.0247 [2]. Industry News - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on seven aspects: supporting the construction of a strong domestic market; accelerating the cultivation and growth of new drivers; promoting high - level scientific and technological self - reliance; increasing efforts to improve people's livelihood; promoting new urbanization and regional coordinated development; accelerating the comprehensive green transformation; and strengthening financial scientific management. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council emphasizes focusing on "two major" and "two new" areas, planning and implementing a number of major projects and landmark projects in advance. It will also deeply implement the "AI+" special action of central enterprises, accelerate digital and intelligent transformation, and create a number of emerging pillar industries according to the situation of each enterprise. It will also optimize the layout and adjust the structure of the state - owned economy around the "three concentrations" of state - owned capital. - The National Energy Administration data shows that from January to February, the cumulative social electricity consumption was 1654.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%, with the growth rate 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Among them, the electricity consumption growth rates of the charging and swapping service industry and the Internet data service industry reached 55.1% and 46.2% respectively. - The "Fed whisperer" said that the Fed tends to remain silent this week, and recent shocks have become two - way factors. - US President Trump said he hopes to postpone his visit to China by about one month due to the war with Iran and has requested to postpone the China - US summit. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said that China and the US are maintaining communication on President Trump's visit to China [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Aluminum**: This week, there were no significant production increases or decreases in the supply side, and the operating capacity remained stable. On the demand side, the aluminum rod and aluminum plate industries continued to resume production, with an increase in capacity utilization. However, the sharp increase in spot prices suppressed transactions, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate. The spill - over of overseas geopolitical risks intensified macro risks, and the market showed a strong and volatile trend [3]. - **Alumina**: This week, alumina supply increased slightly, but overall supply was still in excess. In the short term, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will remain stable, and the demand for alumina will continue to be high. This week, the spot price of alumina rose, trading picked up, and the factory inventory decreased slightly, but the total inventory was still high. In the short term, the logic of rising energy costs is dominant, and the price will be volatile and slightly stronger [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Aluminum Futures and Spot**: The report presents data on the closing price and trading volume of Shanghai Aluminum futures and LME aluminum futures, as well as the basis, spread, and price differences in different regions of aluminum spot [5][10][11]. - **Alumina Futures and Spot**: It shows the closing price and trading volume of alumina futures, as well as the spot price, basis, spread, and price differences in different regions of alumina [14][15][18]. 3.2 Upstream Supply - **Bauxite**: It includes the monthly production of domestic bauxite by province, monthly import volume, and port inventory [22][23]. - **Alumina**: The monthly production, weekly operating rate by province, monthly import volume, and import profit and loss of alumina are presented [25][28][30]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The monthly and weekly production, monthly net import, and import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum are shown, as well as the weekly delivery volume of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods [34][35][39]. 3.3 Downstream Demand - **Aluminum Products Production**: The production of aluminum rods, profiles, rods, plates, foils, and primary aluminum alloy ingots is presented on a weekly or monthly basis [40]. - **Industry Operating Rate**: The weekly and monthly operating rates of various aluminum - related industries, such as aluminum profiles, plates, foils, and cables, are shown [44][52]. - **Exports**: The monthly export volume and export profit of unforged aluminum and aluminum products are presented [56][57]. - **Related Industries**: Data on the construction, automotive, power grid, and photovoltaic industries, such as housing construction and completion area, vehicle production, power grid investment, and photovoltaic installation volume, are also provided [61][62][64]. 3.4 Inventory - **Bauxite Inventory**: The monthly inventory of bauxite in China and in specific provinces is presented [69]. - **Alumina Inventory**: The factory inventory and inventory days of alumina enterprises, as well as the SHFE alumina warehouse receipt volume, are shown [72][73]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: The LME aluminum inventory, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt quantity, social inventory, inventory days of electrolytic aluminum, and the spot inventory of aluminum rods and the combined inventory of aluminum ingots and rods are presented [73][74][76]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of domestic and imported bauxite, 32% ion - membrane caustic soda, pre - baked anodes, power coal, Dutch natural gas, and European electricity are presented [78][79][80]. - **Cost and Profit of Alumina and Electrolytic Aluminum**: The cost and profit of alumina and electrolytic aluminum are shown [78][80].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints Tin - The short - term market sentiment is volatile, and it is recommended to be cautious. There is still a long - term bullish logic for tin prices, and short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions [3] Copper - In the short - term, due to multiple factors, copper prices are oscillating around 100,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the center of copper prices is expected to rise. Short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions [5] Zinc - The zinc fundamentals are generally good. The price downside space may be limited without significant recession risks at the macro level. However, if the downstream production resumption in the peak season fails to meet expectations, the domestic inventory pressure may suppress the upside space [7] Industrial Silicon - The cost increase may strongly support the bottom of industrial silicon prices. In March, supply and demand are expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the production and sales recovery and cost fluctuations [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is currently oversupplied, but the low - cost photovoltaic power may be beneficial to the long - term development of photovoltaic demand. It is recommended to wait and see for now [10] Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to continue wide - range oscillations, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short - term, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged [11] Nickel - The overseas macro uncertainty increases, and the raw material end contradictions support the price. The demand has improved slightly, but high inventory restricts the price increase. The disk is expected to oscillate strongly [12] Stainless Steel - The overseas macro risk uncertainty increases, the raw material end is tight, and the cost supports the price. The supply and demand are in a continuous game, and the short - term is expected to oscillate and adjust [16] Lithium Carbonate - The macro risk persists, and the fundamentals maintain resilience but lack strong drivers. The disk is expected to oscillate widely around the macro expectations, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [19] Aluminum Alloy - The short - term market will continue to oscillate in the context of weak supply and demand. The key turning points of the market lie in the downstream production resumption rhythm, order recovery, and scrap aluminum circulation improvement [21] Summary by Directory Tin Price and Spread - The price of Yangtze River 1 tin is 394,000 yuan/ton, down 1,350 yuan or 0.34%. The LME 0 - 3 spread is 400, up 40.00%. The import profit and loss is - 8,294.19 yuan/ton, up 870.91 yuan or 9.50%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.89 [1] Fundamental Data - In December, the tin ore import volume was 17,637 tons, up 16.81% month - on - month. In February, the SMM refined tin output was 11,490 tons, down 23.91% month - on - month [2] Inventory - The SHEF weekly inventory is 11,663 tons, down 4.82%. The social inventory is 13,082 tons, down 0.21%. The SHEF daily warehouse receipt is 12,360 tons, up 23.22%. The LME daily inventory is 8,630 tons, up 0.29% [3] Copper Price and Spread - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 100,670 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper spread is 82 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [5] Fundamental Data - In February, the electrolytic copper output was 114.24 million tons, down 3.13% month - on - month. In December, the electrolytic copper import volume was 26.02 million tons, down 4.02% month - on - month [5] Inventory - The domestic social inventory is 57.39 million tons, down 0.57%. The bonded area inventory is 0 million tons, down 100%. The SHFE inventory is 42.51 million tons, up 8.59% [5] Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 24,310 yuan/ton, up 0.08%. The import profit and loss is - 2,665 yuan/ton, up 82.05 yuan [7] Fundamental Data - In February, the refined zinc output was 50.46 million tons, down 9.99% month - on - month. In December, the refined zinc import volume was 0.88 million tons, down 51.94% month - on - month [7] Inventory - The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory is 26.88 million tons, up 4.88%. The LME inventory is 0.02 million tons, down 0.15% [7] Industrial Silicon Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of South China SI4210 industrial silicon is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [9] Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon output is 27.57 million tons, down 26.58% month - on - month. The national operating rate is 38.02%, down 21.33% month - on - month [9] Inventory - The Xinjiang factory warehouse inventory is 13.98 million tons, up 0.58%. The social inventory is 55.20 million tons, down 0.18% [9] Polysilicon Price and Spread - The average price of N - type re -投料 is 46,000 yuan/ton, down 2.65%. The主力 contract price is 42,760 yuan/ton, up 0.40% [10] Fundamental Data - The weekly polysilicon output is 1.90 million tons, up 1.06%. The monthly polysilicon output is 7.70 million tons, down 23.61% [10] Inventory - The polysilicon inventory is 35.70 million tons, up 2.59%. The silicon wafer inventory is 28.35 million tons, down 2.28% [10] Aluminum Price and Spread - The SMM A00 aluminum price is 25,260 yuan/ton, up 0.92%. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum is - 3,974 yuan/ton, down 3368 yuan [11] Fundamental Data - In February, the alumina output was 660.02 million tons, down 10.63% month - on - month. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output was 346.00 million tons, down 8.91% month - on - month [11] Inventory - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 129.40 million tons, up 3.03%. The LME inventory is 44.7 million tons, down 0.63% [11] Nickel Price and Spread - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 140,950 yuan/ton, up 0.86%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel price is 144,350 yuan/ton, up 0.80% [12] Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel output is 32,600 tons, down 7.45% month - on - month. The refined nickel import volume is 23,394 tons, up 84.63% [12] Inventory - The SHFE inventory is 61,769 tons, up 1.61%. The social inventory is 84,537 tons, up 10.45%. The LME inventory is 286,248 tons, down 0.29% [12] Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [16] Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel output (43 companies) is 190.08 million tons, up 44.07% month - on - month. The stainless steel import volume is 14.50 million tons, up 29.32% [16] Inventory - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) is 53.21 million tons, down 1.19%. The SHFE warehouse receipt is 5.13 million tons, down 0.34% [16] Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 158,000 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 154,500 yuan/ton, down 0.80% [19] Fundamental Data - In February, the lithium carbonate output was 83,090 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand was 111,503 tons, down 10.57% [19] Inventory - The lithium carbonate total inventory in February was 28,323 tons, down 4.76%. The lithium carbonate downstream inventory was 39,997 tons, down 5.01% [19] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 25,200 yuan/ton, up 0.40%. The Foshan crushed raw aluminum refined - scrap spread is 3,066 yuan/ton, up 11.45% [21] Fundamental Data - In February, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot output was 35.80 million tons, down 41.31% month - on - month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot output was 20.93 million tons, down 30.99% [21] Inventory - The recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory is 3.91 million tons, down 5.56%. The recycled aluminum alloy factory finished product inventory is 13.60 million tons, down 8.11% [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of both supply and demand increase. It's suggested to trade with a light position in a volatile market and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a situation of both supply and demand increase, with seasonal accumulation of aluminum ingot inventory. It's recommended to trade with a light position by buying short on dips and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of both supply and demand increase, with downstream purchasing意愿 driving industrial inventory reduction. It's advised to trade with a light position by buying short on dips and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum is 25,240 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures is 2,865 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] - The spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai aluminum is - 130 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of alumina is - 35 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 3,457 US dollars/ton, up 57 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 450,125 tons, down 2,250 tons [2] - The closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy is 23,990 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the registered warehouse receipts of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 55,360 tons, down 540 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 25,260 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 25,100 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan [2] - The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 130 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is 26.51 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 1,110 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 20 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 19,000 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap is 18,400 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan [2] - The export volume of alumina is 21 million tons, up 4 million tons; the import volume of alumina is 22.78 million tons, down 0.46 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum is 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons [2] - The production of aluminum products is 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 42.96 million tons, down 11.04 million tons [2] - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 27.08 million tons, down 39.41 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.55 million tons, down 0.51 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of automobiles is 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles; the national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - The production of aluminum alloy is 182.50 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 23.39%, down 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 32.60%, unchanged [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum is 28.7%, up 0.0070; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.70, down 0.1340 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In February, automobile production and sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and new energy vehicle production and sales also decreased year - on - year [2] - The China Development Forum 2026 will be held in Beijing from March 22nd to 23rd [2] - The latest US inflation data in February met market expectations, but the impact of the oil price surge caused by the Iranian situation was not reflected [2] - G7 leaders discussed the Middle East situation and its economic impact [2] - The energy price surge caused by the Iranian war is reshaping the European Central Bank's policy expectations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the Iran - related geopolitical situation, with different trends in various sectors. The prices of many futures varieties have fluctuated, and the market is in a state of high volatility. It is necessary to closely monitor the development of the situation in the Middle East, especially the situation of the Strait of Hormuz and the production and export of Iran [7][11]. - The prices of most commodities are expected to be in a state of high - volatility. Some commodities may continue to rise under the influence of geopolitical factors, but if the situation eases, there may be significant corrections [7][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Market - After the news that Iran did not block the Strait of Hormuz on March 5, the bullish sentiment in the container shipping European line quickly declined, with concentrated exits of long - position funds and a sharp drop in futures prices, especially in the far - month contracts [7]. - The situation between the US and Iran is still evolving, and the Strait of Hormuz is still de facto not open, and Red Sea navigation is difficult to resume in the short term. It is currently the off - season for container shipping demand, and the war has disrupted the supply - demand structure. Shipping companies have announced price increases, but it is uncertain whether they will be implemented. Maersk has temporarily stopped accepting cargo bookings to and from some Middle Eastern countries [7]. - The EC2604 contract still has the possibility of rising but with large fluctuations. If the situation in Iran eases, there may be a significant decline [7]. 3.2 Crude Oil Market - After the news that the Chinese naval escort fleet successfully escorted three Chinese - owned oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz on March 5, the bullish sentiment in the domestic crude oil market declined, and the price gap between domestic and foreign crude oil began to narrow [11]. - Iran has stated that it will selectively strike ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration is considering measures to deal with the soaring oil prices, such as using the national emergency oil reserve. The US has a limited tolerance for long - term significant increases in oil prices. The IEA believes that the current supply is sufficient and has not launched a reserve - release plan [11]. - The US military has increased intelligence personnel for operations against Iran, and the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran is expected to last longer, with Brent crude oil prices breaking through $85 per barrel. It is expected that crude oil prices will be in a strong - side shock in the short term, and it is difficult to continue to rise significantly. The domestic oil price increase is expected to be weaker than that of foreign markets, and the price gap will tend to normalize [11]. 3.3 Chemicals Market 3.3.1 Fuel Oil - After the suspension of the Strait of Hormuz, the deliverable high - sulfur fuel oil supply in Asia has tightened, with a reduction of 43,500 tons in fuel oil warehouse receipts. Asian refineries have shifted to importing high - sulfur fuel oil from Russia and Venezuela, reducing their dependence on Middle Eastern raw materials [14]. - Iran's statement of restricting the passage of ships from the EU, Israel, and their allies has cooled the speculative enthusiasm for chemicals. The fuel oil price has risen slightly following the crude oil price, and the bullish sentiment in the market has declined. If the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, the futures market may quickly give back some of the geopolitical premium, and high volatility due to capital games should be vigilant [14]. 3.3.2 Asphalt - In the North China region, mainstream refineries have stopped producing and shipping asphalt, resulting in a contraction of regional spot supply. Shandong refineries have continuously raised prices and are strongly committed to price control. The rigid demand in the northern region is weak, and bad weather restricts terminal construction. The market trading is mainly for arbitrage and inventory, and the storage of high - priced resources has slowed down. In the southern region, the prices of major refineries remain firm, but the actual rigid demand support is limited. Overall, the market is in a state where it is easy to rise and difficult to fall, and the subsequent development of the conflict should be monitored [17]. 3.3.3 LPG - The rise in crude oil prices has driven market sentiment. Domestic refineries have limited supply and still have a certain willingness to raise prices. In the East China region, prices have risen across the board, and in Fujian, prices have remained stable. For imported gas, although the arrival of ships at the terminal has increased and the supply is not tight, due to the impact of the conflict on the arrival of ships in the second half of the month, importers are reluctant to sell. Some upstream refineries have reduced production or stopped production, and the supply of LPG is expected to decrease. On the demand side, some downstream plants in South China have stopped production, and there is an expectation of production reduction. It is recommended to pay close attention to the production dynamics of Middle Eastern crude oil and the navigation situation of the Strait of Hormuz. The price is expected to be in a high - volatility state [20]. 3.3.4 Methanol - Urea - The domestic methanol market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Due to the spill - over risk of the Middle East geopolitical situation, many global refineries have reduced production or stopped production, and the production and shipment of Iranian methanol plants have been affected. Only a small part of the methanol production capacity in Iran is currently operating. Urea is mainly priced domestically, with both supply and demand increasing and inventory rising. The overseas urea price has risen significantly due to the geopolitical conflict, but it has little impact on the domestic market due to export restrictions. It is recommended to pay attention to the production and shipment of Iranian methanol plants. The price is expected to be in a high - volatility state, and methanol prices are likely to rise [23]. 3.3.5 Pure Benzene - Styrene - The chemical futures sector has been strong, with many varieties reaching the daily limit. The aromatics series (pure benzene/styrene) is directly downstream of crude oil and naphtha, and is supported by cost - side and supply - shortage factors. The domestic pure benzene market has a slightly improved pattern of reduced supply and increased demand, and April is the maintenance season. The domestic styrene market has a healthy supply - demand situation, with an expected increase and then decrease in the operating rate, and the export volume in March is expected to be optimistic. Some domestic petrochemical plants have reduced production or stopped production in advance. In the context of the ongoing Middle East war, the prices of pure benzene and styrene are likely to rise [27]. 3.3.6 Polyethylene - Polyvinyl Chloride - The polyethylene industry has three main production processes. The geopolitical impact has brought double benefits of cost and import to the domestic polyethylene market. The polyvinyl chloride has two main production methods, and the ethylene - based method is more affected. The domestic polyethylene market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, with high inventory after the Spring Festival and difficulty in cost transfer. The polyvinyl chloride market has a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality, with high operating rates, increased inventory, and weak demand recovery. Some domestic petrochemical plants have reduced production or stopped production in advance. In the context of the ongoing Middle East war, the prices of polyethylene and polyvinyl chloride are likely to rise, but the increase may be less than that of other oil - related chemicals [30][31]. 3.3.7 Propylene - Polypropylene - Propylene is a key downstream product of LPG, and China mainly produces it domestically with multiple production processes. Due to the transportation risk in the Strait of Hormuz and the reduction of Middle Eastern crude oil production, the supply of LPG is expected to shrink, which will affect propylene production. The propylene market is in a game situation, with sellers wanting to raise prices but the proportion of premium transactions decreasing, and buyers being cautious. The polypropylene market has strong cost support due to the rising crude oil price, and the spot price has risen rapidly. The downstream factories have resumed production and have purchasing demand [34]. 3.3.8 Polyester Series (PX - EG - PTA - PR - PF) - Short - term trend: As long as the geopolitical tension in the Middle East does not ease, the high - risk premium of crude oil prices will continue, providing strong cost support for the polyester chain. PX, PTA, and EG prices are expected to be in a strong - side shock. Among them, ethylene glycol (EG) may have the greatest price elasticity, PTA may follow the cost but its processing margin may be squeezed, and short - fiber (PF) may have relatively weak upward persistence. If the Middle East situation eases, the polyester series will decline with the cost. If the crude oil price remains high for 1 - 2 weeks and the downstream demand does not recover, the polyester chain may turn from a strong trend to a shock - decline [36]. - Operational suggestions: For the single - side strategy, be cautiously bullish and avoid chasing high prices. For the arbitrage strategy, consider going long on PTA and short on PF, or going long on EG and short on PTA. For the option strategy, investors who are bullish but worried about a significant decline can consider buying call options or constructing a bull - spread portfolio. For risk management, reduce positions, increase trading flexibility, and industrial customers can use futures for hedging [38][39]. 3.3.9 Rubber Series - Natural rubber: The overall trend of RU and NR this week is weaker than that of BR. The supply in the Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas is in the off - season, and the domestic inventory has been increasing after the Spring Festival. The terminal demand is not optimistic, and the overseas export orders of tire factories have been affected by the geopolitical conflict. The short - term market is expected to be in a shock - consolidation state. - Synthetic rubber: BR has continued to strengthen this week. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to an expected reduction in crude oil supply, and the market is worried about the increase in raw material costs due to the decline in the load of domestic cracking plants. There is a shortage of raw material supply. The short - term bullish expectation for butadiene rubber still exists, but the export situation has some uncertainties, and the support from the natural rubber market is weakening. It is not recommended to chase high prices. Operational suggestions: Wait and see or build long positions at low prices for RU and NR; for BR long positions, consider buying out - of - the - money put options for hedging [42]. 3.4 Aluminum Industry Chain 3.4.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - Alumina - Since the intensification of the Middle East situation last weekend, the non - ferrous metal sector represented by copper has fully priced in geopolitical risks and declined significantly. However, electrolytic aluminum has performed well. The suspension of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced the supply capacity of Middle Eastern electrolytic aluminum, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract rising by more than 5% this week and the LME London aluminum rising by more than 7%. The structural contradiction between the large electrolytic aluminum production capacity and the low alumina self - sufficiency rate in the Middle East has been exacerbated by the suspension of the Strait of Hormuz, and the impact has been reflected in the production reduction of Middle Eastern electrolytic aluminum [46]. - As the suspension of the Strait of Hormuz continues, concerns about inflation and economic recession in the Shanghai aluminum market have restricted the upward space of electrolytic aluminum. The domestic electrolytic aluminum spot price has risen significantly this week, but the downstream support is limited, and the operating rates of aluminum rods and aluminum sheets and foils need to be further restored [46]. - In the long term, the demand for electrolytic aluminum is supported by the acceleration of new energy and power grid investment, and there is a supply gap due to geopolitical factors and rising power costs. It is recommended to be bullish on Shanghai aluminum and go long at low prices [47]. 3.4.2 Caustic Soda - The caustic soda futures market has risen significantly this week. The market trading logic is still related to the spill - over impact of the Middle East situation, which has led to the reduction of PVC plant loads in East and Southeast Asia and an increase in overseas caustic soda procurement. The domestic futures market sentiment has been boosted [50]. - The domestic caustic soda market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand. The demand is restricted by the limited growth of alumina production capacity and the surplus situation of alumina. The supply is unlikely to decrease in the short term due to the increase in the enthusiasm for chlor - alkali co - production. The inventory is at a high level in recent years. In the long term, the domestic caustic soda production capacity is growing rapidly, and the downstream demand needs to be further recovered. It is recommended to be bearish on caustic soda in general, but be cautious in the short term due to the impact of sentiment and funds, and consider shorting the far - month contracts at high prices [50][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: For caustic soda, it is expected to be strongly volatile; for alumina, it is expected to be in low - level oscillation, and for electrolytic aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, they are expected to be strongly volatile [23][24][26] - Medium - to - long - term: For caustic soda, pay attention to the demand increase brought by the commissioning of new alumina production capacity and the recovery of downstream operation, and consider going long on dips if the operation is smooth; for electrolytic aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, they are expected to be strongly volatile under the quantitative easing environment, and alumina will be in wide - range low - level oscillation without large - scale production cuts [24][27] 2. Core View - The current strong performance of caustic soda futures is due to reduced exports from the Middle East, upcoming traditional demand season, new alumina production capacity, and approaching maintenance season. Alumina has an obvious supply surplus, and its price is under pressure. Electrolytic aluminum's supply is affected by the Middle East situation, and demand is picking up [23][26] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Aluminum Industry Chain Related Variety Price and Basis Trends - The report presents the trends of domestic alumina, cast aluminum alloy, caustic soda, and aluminum spot and futures prices and their basis [5][6] 3.2 Caustic Soda Supply - As of March 6, the weekly operating rate of caustic soda enterprises was 86.4%, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, and the weekly output was 855,000 tons, a 15,000 - ton increase. The weekly inventory was 55,000 tons, a 9,100 - ton increase [9] 3.3 Aluminum Raw Material Supply - As of February 27, the bauxite port inventory was 26.1449 million tons, 602,300 tons more than before the holiday. As of the end of January, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants was 24.54 million tons, a 120,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 2.54 - million - ton increase year - on - year [12] 3.4 Alumina Supply - As of March 6, the weekly operating rate of alumina enterprises was 82.62%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week, and the weekly output was 1.783 million tons, a 2,000 - ton decrease. The total inventory was 5.722 million tons, a 37,000 - ton increase from the previous week [15] 3.5 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - As of the end of January, China's primary aluminum production was 3.786 million metric tons. As of the end of February, the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry was 98.94%. As of the end of December last year, the inventory was 644,000 tons [18] 3.6 Major Three - Exchange Aluminum Inventory Trends - As of March 5, the LME aluminum inventory was 459,100 tons, a decrease of 8,425 tons from last Friday; the SHFE aluminum inventory was 356,000 tons, an increase of 58,600 tons from last Friday; the COMEX aluminum inventory was 4,401 metric tons, a decrease of 1,043 metric tons from last week. Overall, the global major three - exchange electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to accumulate this week [21][22] 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - Caustic soda: In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile. In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to the demand increase brought by the commissioning of new alumina production capacity and the recovery of downstream operation, and consider going long on dips if the operation is smooth [23][24] - Alumina, SHFE aluminum, and cast aluminum alloy: In the short - term, alumina is in low - level oscillation, and SHFE aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are strongly volatile. In the medium - to - long - term, SHFE aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are expected to be strongly volatile under the quantitative easing environment, and alumina will be in wide - range low - level oscillation without large - scale production cuts [26][27]