Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core View - Polyolefins are trading in a consolidating manner. The consumption of polyolefins has entered a relative off - season, and the spot prices are generally mediocre. The price fluctuations of the futures market follow costs and market sentiment. With the cooling of the Middle East conflict and the decline of international oil prices, the cost support has weakened, and polyolefins are gradually consolidating to digest selling pressure. Attention should be paid to the supply contraction effect during the summer equipment maintenance [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - For Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LL), the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7288, 7258, and 7284 respectively, with price changes of 10, 16, and - 7, and price change rates of 0.14%, 0.22%, and - 0.10%. The trading volumes were 58745, 525, and 307887, and the open interests were 116541, 2367, and 421336, with changes of 2138, 301, and - 11185 [2]. - For Polypropylene (PP), the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7067, 7060, and 7067 respectively, with price changes of 13, 23, and - 2, and price change rates of 0.18%, 0.33%, and - 0.03%. The trading volumes were 30531, 454, and 229429, and the open interests were 106189, 4816, and 391848, with changes of 48, 320, and - 2340 [2]. - The current spreads for LL (January - May, May - September, September - January) are 30, - 26, - 4, and for PP are 7, - 7, 0 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - In the raw materials market, the current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2400 yuan/ton, 6335 yuan/ton, 567 US dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6880 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - In the spot market, the current price ranges for LL in East China, North China, and South China are 7200 - 7650 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7550 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the price ranges in East China, North China, and South China are 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, 7000 - 7100 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News and Evaluation - On July 14, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for August 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was 66.98 US dollars per barrel, down 1.47 US dollars or 2.15% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was 69.21 US dollars per barrel, down 1.15 US dollars or 1.63% from the previous trading day [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The polyolefin market is in narrow - range consolidation. The spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remain stable. The polyolefin consumption has entered a relative off - season, and the overall spot price performance is average. The disk price fluctuates more following the cost and market sentiment. With the cooling of the Middle East conflict and the decline of international oil prices, the cost support weakens. Polyolefin is gradually digesting selling pressure through sideways consolidation. Attention should be paid to the cooling of cost - end raw materials mainly based on crude oil and the reality of the seasonal demand off - season. The effectiveness of supply contraction during the summer equipment maintenance should be focused on [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Fluctuations**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7243, 7221, and 7282 respectively, with changes of - 19, - 27, and - 2 compared to the day before, and corresponding percentage changes of - 0.26%, - 0.37%, and - 0.03%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7042, 7032, and 7078 respectively, with changes of 1, - 9, and 4 and percentage changes of 0.01%, - 0.13%, and 0.06%. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 44517, 180, and 301296 respectively, and the open interests were 106805, 1584, and 448681 respectively, with changes of - 5366, 54, and 4549. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 28869, 598, and 210061 respectively, and the open interests were 107738, 3668, and 414623 respectively, with changes of - 330, 481, and 4430. - **Spreads**: The current spreads for LL (January - May, May - September, September - January) were 22, - 61, and 39 respectively, compared to previous values of 14, - 36, and 22. For PP, the current spreads were 10, - 46, and 36 respectively, compared to previous values of 0, - 33, and 33 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2400 yuan/ton, 6575 yuan/ton, 558 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6980 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2415 yuan/ton, 6610 yuan/ton, 570 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6980 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton. - **Mid - stream Spot**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7750 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Market News - The strong US employment market supports the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged. Investors are waiting for clarification on President Trump's plan to impose tariffs on multiple countries. It is expected that OPEC and its production - cut allies will further increase crude oil production in August, and international oil prices continue to decline cautiously. On July 4, 2025 (US Independence Day), there was no settlement price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange, but electronic trading was normal. The last trading price of the August 2025 futures electronic disk was 66.50 dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.50 dollars or 0.75% from the previous trading day's settlement price, with a trading range of 66.04 - 67.18 dollars. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was 68.30 dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.50 dollars or 0.73% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 67.75 - 68.89 dollars [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text Core Viewpoints - The short - term domestic macro expectations have increased, the market may trade the strong reality, the demand remains at a relatively high level to support the futures price, the supply is expected to increase, the inventory tends to accumulate but the pressure is weak, and the short - term iron ore futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly in a range. The i2509 contract price ranges from 695 yuan/ton to 720 yuan/ton, and the outer - market FE07 contract price ranges from 93 to 96 US dollars/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - Yesterday, the black series fluctuated narrowly, the finished product end was relatively weak, and the demand continued the off - season characteristics. The supply of iron ore showed a seasonal increase, but the carbon element gave way to the iron element, the blast furnace profit was considerable, and the domestic demand was at a relatively high level, supporting the price. Since June, the basis of iron ore has returned from the spot to the futures, the spot price has dropped significantly compared with the end of May, while the futures price has been relatively stable [2] Supply - This week, the overseas ore shipments increased significantly compared with the previous week, and the arrivals also increased significantly. June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments, and it is expected that the shipments will continue to increase steadily, and the domestic actual supply will increase significantly, with the support of the supply side weakening marginally. Later, attention should be paid to the delivery of non - mainstream mines [2] Demand - The domestic molten iron production ended five weeks of decline and rebounded slightly. The current steel mill profitability rate is high, the blast furnace profit is considerable, the short - process is in deep loss, and the iron - scrap difference has widened significantly. It is expected that the short - term demand for iron ore will be strong, and the high demand will support the price [2] Inventory - The inventory of imported ore at steel mills has increased, and the daily consumption has increased due to the resumption of production of individual steel mills. The port inventory has decreased slightly this period. It is expected that the inventory will accumulate slightly later, but the pressure is weak due to high demand [3]

Group 1 - The report anticipates that the A-share market will continue to experience a slight upward trend in July, driven by dividends and technology sectors [2][4][8] - Since the beginning of 2025, A-share indices have shown wide fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.89% and the ChiNext Index down by 5.79% as of June 23, 2025 [3][10][11] - The report highlights that the dividend sector, particularly banks and insurance, has performed well, while the consumer sector has been relatively weak due to the impact of the liquor industry [35][36] Group 2 - The report suggests that the technology sector, particularly semiconductors, components, and gaming, may present breakthrough opportunities in July [8][36] - The analysis indicates that the macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with expectations of new policy measures to support technology innovation and consumption [5][30] - The report identifies three categories of industries based on profit growth and PE ratios, emphasizing sectors like small metals, automation equipment, and precious metals as potential investment opportunities [32][36]

Group 1: Market Reactions - LME three-month aluminum surged to a three-month high due to U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to rising energy prices and potential disruptions in aluminum transportation in the Middle East [1][4] - On June 21, LME three-month aluminum rose by $39, or 1.53%, closing at $2,588.50 per ton, with an intraday peak of $2,654.50, the highest since March 21 [1][2] Group 2: Energy Costs and Supply Concerns - In some regions of the Middle East, energy accounts for 40%-45% of aluminum smelting costs [3] - Concerns about escalating conflicts in the Middle East and potential disruptions in oil and gas supplies have intensified [4] - If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, it could significantly impact transportation, as Middle Eastern countries produce nearly 9% of the world's aluminum [4] Group 3: Copper Market Dynamics - LME three-month copper increased by $34, or 0.35%, closing at $9,667.50 per ton, with spot copper contracts premium soaring to $340 per ton, the highest since October 2022 [5] - The rise in copper prices is partly attributed to a decline in copper inventory in LME-approved warehouses and U.S. investigations into potential tariffs on imported copper [5][6] - LME has imposed new restrictions on holders of large positions in near-month contracts due to low inventory levels [7]

Group 1 - The core discussion between Canadian Prime Minister Carney and U.S. President Trump focused on alleviating the Middle East conflict [1] - They emphasized the commitment to strengthening NATO at the upcoming summit [1] - The conversation also included updates on ongoing trade negotiations between the two countries [1]

Group 1 - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran is reshaping the power dynamics in the Middle East, raising questions about the strategic capabilities of both nations [1] - Israel claims its attacks on Iran are acts of self-defense against an imminent nuclear threat, but lacks evidence to substantiate the urgency of this threat, which raises concerns about the erosion of international law [3] - Currently, Israel appears to hold the initiative in the conflict, having weakened Iran's defensive capabilities, but it faces limitations in achieving its military objectives regarding Iran's nuclear program [5] Group 2 - The confrontation between Iran and Israel has escalated qualitatively, with Iran claiming to possess hypersonic missiles that can evade advanced defense systems, indicating a significant enhancement in its military capabilities [7] - The potential for the conflict to escalate regionally is high, especially with the involvement of the U.S., which could lead to devastating attacks and impact global economic and energy markets if Iran responds aggressively [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall neutral for commodities and stock index futures, wait for fundamental verification; allocate more gold on dips [5] Core Viewpoints - Focus on the verification of economic facts, the domestic economic foundation needs to be consolidated, and pay attention to the possibility of further fiscal stimulus [1] - Trump's tariff policies are uncertain, and the market is affected by various factors such as economic data and central bank policies [2] - The Israel-Iran conflict is intensifying, which may lead to significant fluctuations in the prices of crude oil, commodities, and financial markets [3] - Commodities are affected by short-term geopolitical conflicts, and different types of commodities have different price trends [4] Market Analysis - In April, domestic data was mixed, with exports slightly exceeding expectations, investment weakening, fiscal revenue and expenditure rising, and consumption under pressure [1] - In May, China's industrial增加值 growth slowed down, consumption strengthened, and investment declined. Exports increased slightly year-on-year, and imports decreased [1] - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism reached a consensus, and China and Russia exchanged views on the Middle East situation [1] - The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff order exceeded his authority, but the measure can continue to take effect during the appeal process [2] - The US retail sales in May decreased significantly, and the Fed kept interest rates unchanged but the outlook is uncertain [2] - The Israel-Iran conflict has intensified, with both sides launching attacks on each other, and the international community has called for a ceasefire [3] Commodity Analysis - From the perspective of tariff review, different commodities have different price trends under the influence of tariffs [4] - Energy prices are sensitive to Middle East geopolitical events, and the medium-term supply is expected to be relatively loose [4] - Gold is recommended to be allocated on dips [4][5] Strategy - Overall neutral for commodities and stock index futures, wait for fundamental verification [5] - Allocate more gold on dips [5] To-Do News - Japan plans to cut the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds by 10% from July and increase the issuance of short-term bonds [2][7] - Israel's air defense system may only last about 10 days due to the rapid consumption of interceptor missiles [3][7] - International oil prices have risen due to the possibility of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz [3][7] - US officials are preparing to strike Iran in the coming days [3]

Group 1 - The official estimate indicates that approximately 100 pieces of shrapnel have landed on Jordanian territory since the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are attempting to rebound from a weekly low of $3,360 amid rising demand for the US dollar due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Reports suggest the US may attack Iran this weekend, increasing demand for the dollar and impacting gold prices [2]. - Gold prices broke the critical support level of $3,377 but found new buyers near the weekly low of $3,363 due to renewed interest in safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions [2][4]. - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at 4.25%-4.5%, aligning with expectations, while keeping forecasts for two rate cuts this year unchanged [2][3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The bullish bias for gold remains intact, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) above the midline, currently close to 55 [9]. - Gold needs to reclaim the $3,377 resistance level on a sustained basis to initiate a new upward trend, with the next significant resistance at $3,400 and static resistance at $3,440 [9]. - Immediate downside support is at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $3,348, with further support at the 50-day SMA of $3,308 [11][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming "June Festival" holiday in the US may lead to liquidity shortages, potentially exaggerating gold price volatility [5]. - Traders will closely monitor developments in the Middle East conflict for new trading signals regarding gold prices [6].