1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated upward. The spot import window for refined copper in China opened, but import profits significantly narrowed. Macro factors included Powell's dovish statement and news of potential easing of the Middle - East conflict between the US and Iran. US job vacancies decreased, and the euro - zone inflation rate rose. In China, the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs increased, and the central bank planned to strengthen monetary policy. LME, Comex, and SHFE copper inventories decreased, and domestic downstream restocking led to a rapid decline in social inventories. Short - term, the market is optimistic about the conflict - easing signal, but caution is still needed. It is recommended to operate within a range and gradually build long positions at key support levels, focusing on the performance of copper prices in the 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton range [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The domestic alumina factory inventory is at a three - month high, and with imported alumina arriving and new capacity in Guangxi coming online, the inventory is accumulating again. The high premium in the futures market has accelerated warehouse receipt registration, pressuring alumina. Attacks on two large aluminum plants in the Middle East are expected to drive up overseas aluminum prices. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory accumulation has shown signs of easing, and a de - stocking inflection point may be seen in April. In the short term, due to the influence of Middle - East geopolitics and unfulfilled domestic demand, the pattern of weak domestic and strong international prices is difficult to reverse quickly [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell by 0.75%, while Shanghai nickel rose by 0.13%. LME nickel inventory decreased, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased. Under the influence of tight nickel ore supply and rising freight, nickel ore prices are high, and nickel - iron prices and MHP discount coefficients are strengthening. However, primary nickel inventory is under pressure. With the tightening of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, there are short - term trading opportunities to go long based on the cost line, but attention should be paid to overseas geopolitics, market sentiment, and the potential impact of the July quota replenishment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price increase, influenced by macro factors, inventory decline, and strong domestic demand. Short - term operation suggestions are given [1]. - **Aluminum**: Different trends in alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy. Inventory accumulation and geopolitical factors affect the market [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Opposite price trends in LME and Shanghai nickel. Cost - side factors and inventory pressure co - exist [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Price changes in various copper products, inventory decreases in multiple exchanges, and changes in import - related indicators [1][4]. - **Lead**: Price changes in lead products, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [4]. - **Aluminum**: Price changes in aluminum products, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [5]. - **Nickel**: Price changes in nickel products, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [3][5]. - **Zinc**: Price changes, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [7]. - **Tin**: Price changes, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][10][13]. - **3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [15][18][20]. - **3.3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [23][25][27]. - **3.3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [29][31][33]. - **3.3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [35][37][40]. - **3.3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts show the smelting profit - related trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, and stainless steel from 2019 - 2026 [41][43][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, with rich experience and professional titles in the field of non - ferrous metals research [48][49].

Report Title - "Middle East Impact Continues, Copper and Aluminum Prices Diverge - Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report 2026.03.30" [1] Report Author - Liu Peiyang [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Copper**: High oil prices bring continuous pressure, European and American stock markets are under pressure to adjust, and the overall inventory is high. Copper prices may continue to adjust this week. The reference range for the Shanghai Copper 2605 contract is [90,000, 98,000] [4]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - pressure from high oil prices is unfavorable to non - ferrous metals, but the fundamentals of the aluminum market are stronger than those of the copper market recently, and the copper - aluminum price ratio may continue to return. The reference range for the Shanghai Aluminum 2605 contract is [23,500, 25,000] [4]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand pressure of alumina remains, but the Middle East conflict and Guinea's bauxite policy have a certain impact on market expectations. Pay attention to the recent rebound. The reference range for the Alumina 2605 contract is [2,800, 3,100] [4]. Summary by Directory 01. Market Review - **Weekly Market Data (2026.3.20 - 2026.3.27)**: For copper, the average price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Spot Market decreased from 95,950 yuan/ton to 95,690 yuan/ton; the futures closing price of the main contract of CU increased from 94,740 yuan/ton to 95,930 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the average price of A00 aluminum in the Yangtze River Spot Market decreased from 24,030 yuan/ton to 23,870 yuan/ton; the futures closing price of the main contract of AL decreased from 24,020 yuan/ton to 23,935 yuan/ton. For alumina, the spot price index increased from 2,752 yuan/ton to 2,776 yuan/ton; the futures closing price of the main contract of A0 decreased from 3,041 yuan/ton to 2,930 yuan/ton [8]. - **Weekly News**: Chile's Codelco expects the supply disruption caused by the Middle East conflict to increase its copper production cost by about 5%, and sets the 2026 copper production target range at 133 - 136 million tons. Iran attacked two aluminum production facilities in the Middle East, exacerbating the already tense global supply situation. The San Ciprian electrolytic aluminum plant of Alcoa has restored 90% of its production capacity and plans to reach full - load production by mid - year [11]. 02. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Overseas Market**: The Middle East conflict continues. Before the attack, the international aluminum spot market had a high premium. The London Exchange aluminum price premium was around $60/ton, reaching a 19 - year high. The US aluminum ingot spot premium also remained at a historical high of over $2,293/ton [13]. - **This Week's Macroeconomic Forecast**: Key events and data include the Middle East war situation, China's March official manufacturing PMI, the US March ISM manufacturing index, the US February durable goods orders final value, the US March non - farm payrolls change, and the US March unemployment rate [14]. 03. Non - Ferrous Metals Market Analysis 1.1 Copper - **Spot Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the report. - **Futures Market**: Presented the historical trends of the positions of Shanghai copper futures, options, and international copper futures from 2022 to 2026 [20]. - **Overseas Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the report. - **Market Inventory**: Presented the historical trends of LME copper inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory, COMEX copper inventory, and Shanghai bonded area copper inventory from 2022 to 2026 [26]. - **Downstream Consumption**: From March 20th to 26th, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 83.17%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points. It is expected that the operating rate will increase by 0.59 percentage points to 83.76% this week [28]. 1.2 Aluminum - **Domestic Market**: Presented the historical trends of electrolytic aluminum spot inventory and 6063 aluminum rod inventory from 2022 to 2026 [31]. - **Futures Market**: Presented the historical trends of aluminum futures, options, alumina futures, and alumina options positions from 2022 to 2026 [34]. - **Overseas Market**: Presented the historical trend of LME aluminum total inventory from 2022 to 2026 [37]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of March 26th, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1.1 percentage points to 64% month - on - month, but the overall level was still lower than the same period last year [39]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: As of March 26th, the SMM ADC12 price decreased by 700 yuan/ton to 24,300 yuan/ton. The cost support weakened, demand was weak, and it is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term [43]. - **Cost and Profit**: Presented the historical trends of electrolytic aluminum cost, profit, and the prices of related raw materials from 2025 to 2026 [45]. 1.3 Alumina - **Spot Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the report. - **Futures Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the report. - **Market Supply and Demand**: As of March 26th, China's alumina production capacity was 113.9 million tons, the operating capacity was 89 million tons, and the operating rate was 75.14%. The demand for alumina slightly increased [55]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of the week of March 27th, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2,817.16 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit was - 41.75 yuan/ton [56].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, highlighting military actions, diplomatic efforts, and the potential implications for regional stability and international relations [2][8][10]. Group 1: Military Actions - The U.S. aircraft carrier "George H.W. Bush" is expected to be deployed to the Central Command area, which includes the Middle East, amid ongoing conflicts with Iran [5]. - Iran has launched missile attacks on the U.S. military base in Saudi Arabia, resulting in injuries to multiple American soldiers, with at least 303 U.S. personnel reported injured in the ongoing military actions against Iran [8][9]. - Iranian officials have indicated that they are considering withdrawing from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, claiming it has not provided any substantial benefits to Iran [10]. Group 2: Diplomatic Efforts - U.S. Special Envoy Witkoff announced plans for talks with Iranian representatives, expecting a response to a proposed 15-point ceasefire plan [12][13]. - German Chancellor Merz criticized the U.S. for escalating the conflict rather than seeking peaceful resolutions, questioning the feasibility of U.S. and Israeli goals regarding regime change in Iran [14]. Group 3: Regional Implications - The ongoing military actions and diplomatic tensions pose risks not only to the directly involved parties but also to broader international security, as highlighted by Chancellor Merz's comments on the potential threats to Germany and other nations [14]. - Iran's military spokesperson emphasized the country's strong position in the conflict, suggesting that the U.S. and Israel will have to accept the realities of Iran's military capabilities [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the U.S. military actions against Iran are considered a serious strategic mistake by Russian officials, with potential repercussions for future U.S. administrations [3]. Group 1 - Medvedev states that the U.S. military actions against Iran represent a significant strategic error by the White House, suggesting that the next U.S. government may bear the consequences of this mistake [3]. - He highlights that the Middle East conflict is unlikely to resolve in the short term, noting that the peace process has been slow over the past 70 to 80 years, with no signs of peaceful resolution [3]. - Medvedev warns that if the U.S. initiates ground military operations in Iran, it could lead to catastrophic outcomes for all parties involved, drawing parallels to the consequences faced during the Vietnam War [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved, and there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter - involution. The Middle East situation boosts the energy - chemical industry. It is expected that plastic prices will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of downstream industries after the festival and the development of the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 27, new parking devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's HDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 80%, which is at a relatively low level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 2.16 percentage points to 39.75% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory has been reduced and is currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. Although the US has sent negotiation signals, the Middle East conflict still exists, and the risk of crude oil supply interruption has not been lifted, leading to a rebound in crude oil prices. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into operation in January 2026, and there are no plans to put new production capacities into operation in the first quarter. The downstream factories have increased their resumption of work after the Lantern Festival, and the rigid demand has been released intensively, causing the prices of agricultural films in North, East, and South China to continue to rise. However, downstream users are resistant to high prices and their procurement is more cautious, with low enthusiasm for spot transactions. The expectation of reduced plastic supply still exists due to the non - resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract opened higher and then increased positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 8,716 yuan/ton, the highest was 8,956 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 8,868 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.71%. The position increased by 4,709 lots to 326,742 lots [2] - Spot: The PE spot market showed a mixed trend, with price changes ranging from - 200 to + 200 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 8,580 - 9,470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 10,300 - 11,610 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 8,600 - 9,940 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 27, new parking devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's HDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 80%, at a relatively low level [4] - Demand: As of the week of March 27, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 2.16 percentage points to 39.75% week - on - week. After the fifth week of the Spring Festival, downstream industries resumed production one after another but have not returned to the normal level before the festival. The overall downstream operating rate of PE shows seasonal changes [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early inventory on Friday decreased by 35,000 tons week - on - week to 770,000 tons, 25,000 tons lower than the same period in the lunar calendar last year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose to $108/barrel. The ethylene prices in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained flat week - on - week at $1,400/ton [4]

Market Overview - US stock futures experienced a pullback, with S&P 500 futures down 0.8%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down 0.7%, and Nasdaq 100 futures nearly 1% lower, reflecting uncertainty regarding US-Iran relations and the Middle East conflict [1][2] Oil Market Impact - Brent crude futures rose above $107, while West Texas Intermediate crude surpassed $94, driven by mixed signals regarding the potential for a ceasefire in the ongoing conflict [2] Economic Concerns - Growing fears of a US recession are emerging as the oil price rally could lead to higher costs for consumers, with attention on weekly initial jobless claims as markets evaluate the Federal Reserve's response to rising oil prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - Global oil prices decreased significantly while U.S. stock futures increased following the news of a 15-point plan sent by the U.S. to Iran through Pakistan to resolve the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has been ongoing for four weeks [1] Group 1 - Oil prices experienced a notable decline as a result of the geopolitical developments [1] - U.S. stock futures saw an uptick, indicating a potential positive market reaction to the news of diplomatic efforts [1] - The conflict in the Middle East has now reached its fourth week, highlighting the ongoing instability in the region [1]

Group 1 - The report from CITIC Securities analyzes gold price movements before and after 12 major conflicts in the Middle East since 1970, indicating limited short-term price increases but an average mid-term increase of 10% over six months [1] - Five key factors influencing gold prices were identified, with at least three factors showing positive impacts during conflict periods, leading to an average six-month increase of 34% in gold prices [1] - The current conflict is expected to be driven by continued liquidity easing and weakened dollar credit, which are anticipated to further boost gold prices [1] Group 2 - Historical valuation advantages and stock price levels are expected to enhance the upward potential of the gold sector, with leading companies' PE ratios falling to historical lows of 15-20x [1] - The synchronization of recent stock price peaks with gold price peaks suggests a bullish outlook for stock prices driven by new highs in gold prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The oil funds have shown remarkable performance amidst a broader market decline, with several funds hitting the daily limit up on March 23, 2026, indicating strong investor interest and potential risks associated with price premiums in the secondary market [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - Multiple oil funds, including Southern Oil LOF (501018), Jiashi Oil LOF (160723), and E Fund Oil LOF (161129), experienced significant gains, with Southern Oil LOF leading at a year-to-date increase of 62.92% as of March 23, 2026 [2][3]. - The top seven performing oil funds have all outperformed the market, with Jiashi Oil LOF and E Fund Oil LOF both nearing a 60% increase year-to-date [2][3]. - The recent surge in oil fund prices has led to warnings about potential price premiums, with Jiashi Oil LOF reaching a historical high of 2.904 yuan [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The geopolitical situation, particularly conflicts in the Middle East, has significantly influenced oil prices, with supply disruptions leading to an increase in oil prices and a projected supply shortfall of 2 million barrels per day [7][8]. - The ongoing conflict has prompted a wave of new oil and gas-themed funds, with 12 fund companies reporting new oil and gas funds this year, indicating strong market demand [7]. - The average forecast for Brent crude oil prices in 2026 has been raised to $90 per barrel, up from a previous estimate of $78 per barrel, reflecting expectations of sustained high prices due to supply constraints [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The aluminum inventory accumulation is slowing down, the alumina market is in high - level oscillation, and the cast aluminum alloy market follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] - The short - term oil price fluctuations are not enough to change the Fed's forecast of four interest rate cuts this year [3] Summary Based on Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,020, down 160 from the previous day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price is 3,192, down 50. The LME注销仓单占比 is 36.45%, down 0.45% [1] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract is 3,041, up 14. The trading volume of the Shanghai alumina main contract is 707,158, down 273,561 [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 22,810, down 190. The trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract is 8,397, down 983 [1] Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 135.70 million tons, with no change from the previous day. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss is 7,660.95, down 451.76 [1] - **Alumina**: The domestic alumina average price is 2,752. The alumina Lianyungang CIF price in US dollars per ton is 328, with no change [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of Baotai ADC12 is 24,100, down 300. The three - place inventory total is 35,159, with no change [1] Other Information - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is all 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]