1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: High oil prices bring continuous pressure, and the overall inventory is high. With the Middle - East conflict, high - oil prices, a rebounding US dollar, and a significant reduction in the Fed's expected interest rate cuts this year, the copper price may continue to adjust this week. The downstream consumption is gradually recovering as the copper price falls. The reference range for the Shanghai Copper 2605 contract is [88000, 98000] [4]. - **Aluminum**: Although high - oil prices create macro - pressure on non - ferrous metals, the fundamentals of the aluminum market are stronger than those of the copper market recently, and the copper - aluminum price ratio may continue to return. The threat to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz persists, giving strong support to overseas prices. Domestic demand is gradually recovering after the holiday, and terminal support is gradually strengthening. The reference range for the Shanghai Aluminum 2605 contract is [22500, 24500] [4]. - **Alumina**: There is still pressure on alumina supply and demand, but the Middle - East conflict and Guinea's bauxite policy have some impact on market expectations. Attention should be paid to the recent rebound. The reference range for the Alumina 2605 contract is [2800, 3250] [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: From March 13 - 20, 2026, the average price of copper in the Yangtze River Color Market dropped from 100630 yuan/ton to 95950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4680 yuan/ton; the average price of aluminum dropped from 25100 yuan/ton to 24030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1070 yuan/ton; the alumina spot price index rose from 2698 yuan/ton to 2752 yuan/ton, an increase of 54 yuan/ton [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The LME copper total inventory increased by 30525 tons to 342350 tons; the LME aluminum total inventory decreased by 15625 tons to 429675 tons; the AO warehouse receipt of alumina increased by 25143 tons to 399103 tons [8]. - **Weekly News**: LME updated a series of lending rules, which will take effect on March 17, 2026; Peru's proposal to shorten the mining concession period may affect investment; the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may lead to a shortage of raw materials in the GCC region; EU's carbon tariff on imported aluminum has led to a sharp drop in January's import volume [10]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Domestic Market**: In January - February 2026, the domestic economy started well, with strong import and export performance and a significant rebound in investment growth. However, the real estate market continued to adjust, and consumption rebounded but remained at a low level. The first - quarter economic "good start" is expected, but the overall situation is "strong supply and weak demand" [12]. - **Overseas Market**: On March 19, the Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%. After the meeting, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year significantly cooled, with the expected number of cuts dropping from 1.02 to 0.59 times [19]. - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: There will be adjustments to domestic refined oil prices on March 23; important economic data such as the euro - zone's March manufacturing PMI and China's January - February industrial enterprise profits will be released this week [20]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Market Analysis 3.3.1 Copper - **Spot Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the given content. - **Futures Market**: The report shows the historical trends of the positions of Shanghai copper futures, options, and international copper futures [27]. - **Overseas Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the given content. - **Market Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of copper inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, LME, COMEX, and Shanghai bonded areas [33]. - **Downstream Consumption**: From March 13 - 19, the operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 81.51%, a month - on - month increase of 8.6 percentage points. It is expected to further increase to 83.76% this week. The downstream cable and enameled wire industries also benefited from the copper price decline, with their operating rates steadily rising [35]. 3.3.2 Aluminum - **Domestic Market**: The report shows the historical trends of 6063 aluminum rod inventory and electrolytic aluminum spot inventory [38]. - **Futures Market**: The report shows the historical trends of the positions of alumina futures, options, aluminum futures, and options [41]. - **Overseas Market**: The report shows the historical trend of LME aluminum total inventory [44]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of March 19, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 62.9%. Different sub - industries showed different trends, with some industries' operating rates rising and some remaining stable [46]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: As of March 19, the SMM ADC12 price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 25000 yuan/ton. The price is expected to maintain a weak and narrow - range shock in the short term [49]. - **Cost and Profit**: The report shows the historical trends of electrolytic aluminum cost, profit, and the prices of related raw materials [51]. 3.3.3 Alumina - **Spot Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the given content. - **Futures Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the given content. - **Market Supply and Demand**: As of March 19, China's alumina production capacity was 113.9 million tons, and the operating capacity was 89 million tons, with an operating rate of 75.11%. The supply decreased slightly, while the demand increased slightly [61]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of March 20, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2819.19 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit was - 75.4 yuan/ton [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - After the implementation of interest rate cuts and tariff policies, the copper market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The supply shortage of copper mines strengthens the price bottom, and downstream demand shows strong resilience. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the support around 87,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The aluminum oxide market shows regional differentiation, with the north showing signs of bottoming and the south continuing to decline. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is weak. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is strong, supported by macro factors and demand in some fields, and is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract ranging from 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy market maintains a high - level oscillation. The cost support is prominent, and the supply shows a contraction trend. The demand shows a mild recovery, and the social inventory accumulates weekly. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - After the macro positive expectations are fulfilled, the zinc price oscillates. The supply is expected to increase limitedly due to compressed smelting profits, and the demand is stable. There is a risk of a short squeeze in LME, and the export window is intermittently open. The zinc price has short - term support but may continue to oscillate without a clear turning point in the supply - side logic [9]. Tin - The supply of tin mines remains tight, and the demand is weak. Powell's hawkish statement may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The subsequent trend depends on macro factors and the supply recovery in Myanmar [11]. Nickel - The nickel price oscillates. The production of refined nickel is at a high level, the mine price is firm, but the supply of nickel ore in the Philippines is expected to decrease. The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the industry profit is shrinking. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market oscillates and weakens. The nickel ore price is firm, but the supply in the Philippines may decrease. The nickel - iron and chromium - iron prices are under pressure, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. The price is expected to weakly oscillate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is strong. The auction price of lithium mines provides support. The supply shows a slight decrease, and the demand is unexpectedly optimistic. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to remain strong in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 83,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 88,065 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 883 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 21,200 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 2,515 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 price is 21,300 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day [5]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,250 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 4,757 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 284,000 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 15,249.89 yuan/ton [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,200 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1,540 yuan/ton [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price is 12,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price is 80,000 yuan/ton, up 1.07% from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data Production - **Copper**: The electrolytic copper production in September was 1.121 million tons, down 4.31% from the previous month [1]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum oxide production in September was 7.6037 million tons, down 1.74% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, down 3.16% from the previous month [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in September was 661,000 tons, up 7.48% from the previous month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, up 4.43% from the previous month [5]. - **Zinc**: The refined zinc production in September was 600,100 tons, down 4.17% from the previous month [9]. - **Tin**: The SMM refined tin production in September was 10,510 tons, down 31.71% from the previous month [11]. - **Nickel**: The production of refined nickel products in China was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% from the previous month [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 1.8217 million tons, up 0.38% from the previous month [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production of lithium carbonate in September was 87,260 tons, up 2.37% from the previous month [17]. Inventory - **Copper**: The domestic social inventory of copper is 182,600 tons, up 0.55% from the previous week; the SHFE inventory is 104,800 tons, down 4.94% from the previous week [1]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China is 619,000 tons, up 0.16% from the previous day; the LME inventory is 460,000 tons, down 0.70% from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 54,800 tons, up 0.18% from the previous week [5]. - **Zinc**: The seven - place social inventory of zinc ingots in China is 161,500 tons, down 0.37% from the previous week; the LME inventory is 35,000 tons, down 0.85% from the previous day [9]. - **Tin**: The SHEF inventory of tin is 5,766 tons, up 1.32% from the previous week; the social inventory is 6,828 tons, down 2.69% from the previous week [11]. - **Nickel**: The SHFE inventory of nickel is 36,075 tons, up 4.81% from the previous week; the social inventory is 48,802 tons, up 2.29% from the previous week [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The social inventory of 300 - series (Wuxi + Foshan) is 492,200 tons, down 0.55% from the previous week; the SHFE warrant is 73,800 tons, unchanged from the previous day [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate in September was 94,539 tons, up 0.38% from the previous month [17].