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终端集中补库,关注宏观情绪变动
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 05:09
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Recently, terminal customers have been actively replenishing their stocks, leading to a significant increase in the sales volume of filament yarns. However, the macro - sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to macro - level changes [1] - The cost side shows that crude oil maintains a strong current situation but a weak outlook. The PX market lacks significant positive factors, and the PXN spread is expected to fluctuate after compression. The PTA fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to potential maintenance due to low processing fees. The polyester demand is in the off - season, with terminal orders and operations declining rapidly, and filament yarn inventories are accumulating [2][3] - In terms of trading strategies, a neutral stance is recommended for PX, PTA, PF, and PR, with a slight upward bias in the short - term under the influence of macro - sentiment. Consider shorting the PTA processing fee when prices are high [4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spreads; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [8][9][11] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures include PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It shows figures on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Operations - Figures cover the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][33] Social Inventories and Warehouse Receipts - It includes figures on PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecasts, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show filament yarn sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament yarn load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament yarn factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing industries [50][52][63] Detailed PF Data - It includes figures on polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled price spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and processing fee [74][83][87] Detailed PR Fundamental Data - Figures cover polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, export processing fee, export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [92][94][101]