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兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委:多因素推动黄金进入闪耀周期
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-04-09 20:00
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the rise in gold prices is supported by the restructuring of the international monetary system, the increase in macro leverage ratios, and the current economic cycle, with gold's upward trend expected to continue [2][3][4] - Gold entered a bull market in 2019, starting at around $1300 per ounce, and has seen a nearly 20% increase since the beginning of 2023, with prices recently surpassing $3100 per ounce [2][3] - The restructuring of the international monetary system, particularly after the Ukraine crisis, has led to doubts about the dollar's ability to serve as a reliable reserve currency, increasing gold's appeal as a hard currency [3] Group 2 - The global macro leverage ratio is rising, and if the supply of credit currency increases faster than the supply of gold, it will lead to a relative increase in gold prices [3] - The current global economy is characterized by a Kondratiev wave downturn, historically associated with a 100% probability of gold price increases during such periods [4] - The end of the current gold bull market may be seen in 1 to 3 years, but there are no current signs indicating its conclusion [4] Group 3 - China has a vast market size that can provide significant demand and serve as a testing ground for enterprise innovation, enhancing both hard technology and soft services [5] - The Chinese economy is undergoing a phase where domestic consumption is expected to drive growth, with a strategic focus on expanding consumption as a long-term goal [6] - Key areas for consumption growth include digital consumption related to TMT sectors, emotional value-driven consumption, and tourism, particularly among the aging population [6] Group 4 - Effective asset allocation is crucial for wealth preservation, with a recommendation to balance high-risk and low-risk assets [7] - Including a certain proportion of gold in investment portfolios can smooth returns and reduce volatility, although excessive allocation may erode overall returns [7] - The recent entry of insurance funds into the gold market is expected to enhance China's position in the global gold market and support the development of Shanghai as an international financial center [7]