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股指期货:微观流动性提振股市,股指期权:备兑防御为主
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 03:41
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Micro - liquidity boosts the stock market. The recent strength of the stock market is due to a macro - combination of weak earnings, loose liquidity, and a weak US dollar. However, due to crowded trading, tail risks should be guarded against, and it is recommended to wait and see [1][6]. - **Stock Index Options**: Adopt a covered - call defense strategy. The equity market was strong, but the Shanghai Composite Index failed to break through 3400 points. Option turnover remained low, and implied volatility declined in some varieties. The index faces resistance, so it is advisable to continue holding covered - call positions [2][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: With loose funds, the bond market is oscillating strongly. The central bank's large - scale net injection and weak export and inflation data support the bond market. In the short term, the long - end may remain volatile, and the short - end may be slightly stronger [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts and their spreads changed. Total positions also changed. The market opened higher and rose due to positive news and micro - liquidity. It is recommended to wait and see, with the risk of insufficient incremental funds [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.43% but did not break through 3400 points. Option turnover increased slightly but remained low, and implied volatility decreased. It is recommended to hold covered - call positions, with the risk of insufficient option market liquidity [2][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Trading volume, open interest, spreads, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts changed. The central bank conducted a large - scale net injection. It is recommended for trend, hedging, basis, and curve strategies, with risks such as insufficient monetary easing [6][7]. 3.2 Economic Calendar The report lists economic indicators for China and the US for the current week, including PPI, CPI, export and import rates, and money supply rates [8]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism is being held in the UK [9]. - The general offices of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the State Council issued an opinion on improving people's livelihood, including measures on social security, public services, and housing [9]. - In May, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.96 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. New energy passenger car retail sales were 1.021 million, a year - on - year increase of 28.2% [9]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring The report mentions to monitor data of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data content is not fully presented in the provided text.