[Table_Title] 宽基 ETF 流出放缓，宏观流动性边际收敛 ——流动性周报 3 月第 1 期 最近一年走势 投资要点: 2026 年 03 月 03 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn 相关报告 《近期涨价链行情观点及 3-4 月布局思路*赵阳》— —2026-03-01 《流动性周报 2 月第 3 期：社融同比增速放缓，权 益基金发行回暖*赵阳》——2026-02-24 《流动性周报 2 月第 2 期：宽基流出明显收窄*赵 阳》——2026-02-10 《流动性周报 2 月第 1 期：宽基 ETF 继续大幅流 出*赵阳》——2026-02-02 《年报预报落地后，市场如何演绎？*赵阳》—— 2026-02-01 1. 本周（2026/02/23-2026/02/27，下同）宏观资金面边际收敛，央行通 过公开市场操作开展逆回购净回笼 7274 亿元，开展中期借贷便利净投放 3000 亿元。资金价格方面，短端利率、长端利率均有所上行，期限利差 有所走阔。 2. 本周股市资金供给端呈现结构性分化，权益基金发行大幅回落，杠杆 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continuation of the upward trend in the stock market since December 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 4200 points, marking a new high for the phase [1][11] - China's GDP for the year 2025 reached the target of 140 trillion yuan, supported by various economic data indicating a stabilization and improvement in the domestic macroeconomic fundamentals [1][11] - The trading volume in both stock markets has been increasing, with a notable divergence in fund flows: while the issuance of equity mutual funds has decreased, margin financing has seen significant net inflows [1][11] Group 2 - The overall micro liquidity shows a substantial net inflow of margin financing, alongside a return of net inflows from southbound funds [2][12] - The issuance scale of equity mutual funds has decreased, with new issuance at 20.36 billion units, down 20.58% from the previous period [3][13] - Northbound trading activity has increased, with the proportion of northbound trading volume reaching 12.92%, up from 11.88% in the previous period [4][14] Group 3 - Margin financing has seen a significant net inflow of 189.95 billion yuan, marking a 406.04% increase compared to the previous net inflow of 37.54 billion yuan [5][15] - The net subscription of existing stock ETFs has turned into a net outflow of 143.63 billion yuan, contrasting with a net inflow of 31.23 billion yuan in the previous period [6][16] - The total equity financing scale has risen to 71.88 billion yuan, reflecting a 28.71% increase from the previous period's total of 55.85 billion yuan [7][18] Group 4 - The net reduction in industrial capital has widened to 31.54 billion yuan, compared to a net reduction of 17.44 billion yuan in the previous period [8][19] - The lock-up release scale has decreased to 213.88 billion yuan, down 14.25% from the previous period's 249.43 billion yuan [9][19] - Southbound funds have seen a net inflow of 38.31 billion yuan, reversing from a net outflow of 1.10 billion yuan in the previous period, indicating a positive shift in investor sentiment [10][20]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations after reaching a new high in November, maintaining a high-level consolidation phase. The recent phone call between the leaders of China and the U.S. and Trump's announcement of a visit to China next year may lead to improved bilateral relations [1] - Expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have shifted, with several officials expressing dovish sentiments, potentially improving market liquidity [1] Public Funds - In November, the newly established equity public fund shares reached 71.644 billion, an increase of 16.821 billion from the previous month, ranking in the 94.44 percentile over the past three years [6] - The issuance of active equity funds in November was 25.500 billion, up by 9.612 billion month-on-month, while passive equity funds saw an issuance of 28.892 billion, an increase of 6.354 billion [6] - The net subscription for existing stock ETFs in November was 17.700 billion, a decrease of 33.587 billion from the previous month, with significant net subscriptions observed in strategy and thematic ETFs [6] Private Securities Funds - The scale of private securities funds reached 7.01 trillion in October, showing a significant increase compared to September [2] - The number of newly issued stock products in October was 995, a decrease of 53 from September, indicating a slight downward trend [2] - The average position of the private equity long-only index in September was 66.22%, up by 2.40 percentage points from August, placing it in the 44.1 percentile since 2010 [2] Northbound Capital - The average daily trading volume of northbound capital in November was 221.242 billion, a decrease of 14.35% from the previous month, with its share of total A-share trading falling to 11.56% [7] Margin Financing - As of the end of November, the total margin financing balance was 2.47 trillion, down by 0.52% month-on-month, with the financing balance at 2.46 trillion, a decrease of 0.50% [7] - In November, there was a net outflow of 12.613 billion in margin financing, with its trading activity showing a high-level decline [7] Institutional Investment - The number of new institutional accounts opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in November was 9,700, a year-on-year increase of 28.49%, while individual accounts saw a decline of 11.86% [3] Insurance Capital - In Q3 2025, the net increase in equity assets held by property and life insurance reached 863.994 billion [8] - Recent macroeconomic conditions are favorable for insurance capital to enter the equity market, with risk factors for long-term holdings being adjusted downwards [8] Banking Wealth Management - The number of wealth management products issued in November was 6,651, a month-on-month increase of 35.73%, with the number of products reaching maturity also rising significantly [8] - The proportion of newly issued equity wealth management products in November was 0.92%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points from the previous month [8] Industrial Capital - In November, the net reduction in industrial capital was 40.131 billion, with an average daily net reduction of 2.007 billion, indicating a continued trend of net reduction [9] - The three main capital flow indicators showed a narrowing decline in November, suggesting a potential end to the current market adjustment phase [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past 4 weeks, the domestic stock and bond markets both rose slightly, mainly due to the marginal relaxation of the capital market in October, with a slight decline in risk appetite and no unexpected overall trend [2]. - Looking ahead to November, profits will continue to run smoothly. After a slight improvement in the capital market at the beginning of the month, the risk of marginal convergence of macro - liquidity is increasing, and risk appetite is likely to continue to decline. The trend of bond - equity ratio favoring bonds and equity style favoring value remains unchanged. A combination of long - term bonds and value stocks is recommended [2][14][41]. - China's profit cycle may have entered a low - level narrow - range oscillation stage since the fourth quarter of last year. The private sector debt growth rate is introduced as a supplementary variable to proxy for profit, and currently, the further downward space of this data is limited [3]. - The domestic part of macro - liquidity corresponds to policies. In the long run, policies are endogenous and should conform to the economic cycle. China's policy goals of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio and financial institutions benefiting the real economy have remained stable [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1全社会债务情况 - As of the end of September, China's total social debt balance was 500.1 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.4%, down from the previous value of 8.8% [16]. - At the end of September, the debt balance of financial institutions (inter - bank) was 91.5 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 6.4%, down from the previous value of 8.0% [18]. - At the end of September, the debt balance of the real sector was 408.6 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.8%, down from the previous value of 8.9%. Among them, the household debt balance was 81.9 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 2.2%; the government debt balance was 117.1 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 14.5%; the non - financial enterprise debt balance was 209.7 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.5% [21][23]. - In September, the profit of industrial enterprises increased by 21.6% year - on - year, and the profit of state - owned enterprises increased by 7.5% year - on - year [26]. 3.2金融机构资产负债详解 - As of the end of September, the debt balance of broad financial institutions was 164.9 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.9%, down from the previous value of 6.1%. Among them, the bank debt balance was 135.5 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 7.1%; the non - bank financial institution debt balance was 29.4 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 0.8% [29]. - In September, the three quantitative indicators of monetary policy (base money balance growth rate, financial institution debt growth rate, and excess reserve ratio) showed two declines and one increase. Monetary policy continued to converge marginally in September, slightly relaxed in October, and the probability of further convergence remains high [7][14][31]. - The newly constructed NM2 has a similar trend to M2 but a lower absolute level since 2017. The recent situation indicates that the probability of further marginal convergence of monetary policy is still large [38]. 3.3资产配置 - In the past 4 weeks, the domestic stock and bond markets both rose slightly. Looking ahead to November, a combination of long - term bonds and value stocks is recommended [2][41]. - In September, the year - on - year growth rate of bank bond investment balance was 18.8%, lower than the previous value of 19.6%. The growth rate of the central bank and banks' total foreign asset balance was 3.6%, higher than the previous value of 3.4% [41][42]. - It is expected that the real economic growth rate of the United States will decline this year, inflation will remain high, and the nominal economic growth rate will decrease. The debt growth rate of the US real sector is expected to remain stable at around 3.4%. If the valuation of the US technology field is re - evaluated, global funds may flow from the US to China [15][42].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the 4000-point mark for the first time in ten years, indicating a potential bullish market sentiment as the U.S. and China engage in trade discussions in Kuala Lumpur [1][2] - The overall micro liquidity shows a net outflow of 304 billion CNY, with total supply at 301 billion CNY and demand at 605 billion CNY, indicating a cautious market environment [7][11] - The issuance of equity funds has significantly increased, with the new issuance of equity public funds reaching 220.92 million units, a 233.66% increase compared to the previous period [8][9] Group 2 - Northbound trading activity has decreased, with the proportion of northbound trading volume dropping to 13.85% of total A-share trading, down from 15.17% [11][13] - Margin financing continues to show net inflows, with a total margin balance of 24,322.97 billion CNY, indicating sustained investor participation despite a decrease in net inflow compared to the previous period [15][19] - The stock-type ETF has shifted from net inflow to net outflow, with a net redemption of 46.78 billion CNY, contrasting sharply with the previous net inflow of 879.64 billion CNY [22][24] Group 3 - The equity financing scale has risen significantly to 222.86 billion CNY, a 257% increase from the previous period, indicating a robust fundraising environment [27][29] - Industrial capital has shown a widening net reduction of 191.02 billion CNY, suggesting that major shareholders are continuing to reduce their holdings [30][34] - The lock-up release scale has increased to 1,234 billion CNY, a 46.20% rise from the previous period, with significant upcoming releases expected in the pharmaceutical and biological sectors [35][37] Group 4 - Southbound funds have seen a net inflow of 572.77 billion CNY, a 279.07% increase from the previous period, reflecting ongoing optimism towards the Hong Kong stock market [38][39] - The report indicates that the market sentiment is positively influenced by the potential for U.S. fiscal and monetary easing, which may benefit equity assets [2][38]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with the Sci-Tech 200 Index rising by 2.13% and individual stocks like ShenGong Co., Ltd. increasing by 20.01% [1] - The semiconductor sector is leading the gains, contributing to an overall rise in the technology sector, indicating a continuation of growth style in the market [1] - Institutions forecast that macro liquidity will improve, with the Federal Reserve's dot plot suggesting three interest rate cuts within the year, potentially driving global risk assets [1] Group 2 - The Sci-Tech 200 ETF Index closely tracks the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 200 Index, which selects 200 securities with smaller market capitalizations and better liquidity from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2] - The Sci-Tech 200 Index, along with the Sci-Tech 50 and Sci-Tech 100 indices, forms a series that reflects the overall performance of companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board across different market capitalizations [2]

Market Performance - On September 23, the market experienced a rebound after a significant drop, with the ChiNext index rising by 0.21% while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18% and the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.29% [2] - Over 4,200 stocks declined in the market, with a total trading volume of 2.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 372.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - The market saw a brief moment where the number of declining stocks exceeded 5,000, indicating high volatility [2] Technical Indicators - The Wind data indicated that the market indices, including the Wind All A Index and average stock price, approached the 30-day moving average, suggesting a weakening trend for most stocks [4] - The recent strong indices, such as the Shenzhen and ChiNext, experienced downward breaks of their 5-day or 10-day moving averages before slightly recovering [2][4] Market Sentiment and Expectations - There is a belief that a rebound is likely following the significant drop, supported by historical patterns of recovery after sharp declines [5] - The upcoming anniversary of the "9·24" market event is seen as a potential catalyst for market recovery, which could boost investor confidence [10] Fund Flows and External Influences - There were signs of capital inflow towards the end of the trading day, indicating a possible anticipation of market recovery [11] - External factors, such as the performance of US tech stocks, have influenced the A-share market, with some domestic tech stocks opening high but closing lower [11] Market Dynamics and Risks - Analysts suggest that the market's recent downturn may be attributed to profit-taking behavior ahead of the long holiday, particularly among leveraged funds [12] - The current financing balance stands at 2.4 trillion yuan, which, while not excessively high relative to market capitalization, indicates a significant amount of capital that could be affected by risk factors [12] Future Outlook - According to research from Huajin Securities, the market may see stronger performance in October and December due to potential policy shifts and expectations of liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve [15][16]

Group 1 - The market is transitioning to a phase of oscillating upward movement, with the Federal Reserve expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points and potentially two more times within the year [1][2] - The net inflow of funds into the market is significant, with a total supply of 137.2 billion and demand of 77.4 billion, resulting in a net inflow of 59.8 billion [2][9] - The issuance of equity financing has slightly decreased, with a total of 10.384 billion raised compared to 11.737 billion in the previous period, reflecting a 12% decrease [27] Group 2 - The issuance of new shares in equity public funds has increased slightly, with a total of 42.854 billion shares issued compared to 41.914 billion previously, marking a 2.24% change [11][12] - Northbound trading activity has seen a slight decline, with the proportion of northbound trading volume in the total A-share trading volume decreasing from 14.54% to 14.39% [12][15] - Margin financing has shown a net inflow of 88.382 billion, a decrease of 54.75% from the previous period, indicating a cooling in market investment sentiment [17][19] Group 3 - The net inflow of southbound funds has significantly increased, reaching 85.913 billion, a 132.55% change from the previous period, indicating a strong market sentiment towards Hong Kong stocks [37] - The net subscription amount for stock ETFs has narrowed to 5.936 billion from 12.232 billion, showing a decrease in recent inflows [23][24] - The scale of locked-up shares being released has decreased, with a total of 122.414 billion compared to 162.112 billion previously, reflecting a downward trend in A-share unlock scale [33][35]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the A-share market in China, focusing on the current bull market dynamics and investment strategies. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Outlook**: The current market shows insufficient evidence of tightening micro liquidity, maintaining an optimistic view for September and continuing the "re-inflation bull market" perspective. Short-term growth stocks may outperform, while mid-term large-cap stocks are expected to outperform small-cap stocks, and growth stocks are likely to outperform value stocks [1][2][3] 2. **Earnings and Inflation**: A return of corporate earnings and inflation will challenge leveraged investment strategies. Attention is recommended on indices such as the Shanghai 50, ChiNext 50, and CSI 300 [1][4] 3. **Market Sentiment**: The market sentiment remains optimistic with no significant intervention from state-owned funds. Recent ETF outflows indicate a rational market attitude, and the primary reason for market declines is attributed to profit-taking by leveraged funds [1][5][6] 4. **IPO and Financing Changes**: Future attention should be paid to changes in the funding landscape, including IPOs, refinancing, and share reductions. There has been a notable increase in share reduction activities since mid-June [1][10] 5. **Sector Performance**: Popular sectors like PCB, innovative pharmaceuticals, and communications have seen a decline in trading heat, but have not reached historical overheating levels [1][11] 6. **Historical Market Corrections**: Analysis of five bull markets from 2005 to 2021 indicates that macro and micro liquidity tightening are the primary causes of market corrections, with geopolitical events and policy changes being secondary factors [1][12] 7. **Investment Strategy**: In a bull market, long-term allocation is preferred over short-term trading to avoid missing upward opportunities. The current bull market is driven by dual policy easing, transitioning from valuation-driven to EPS growth-driven [1][18] 8. **Asset Price Dynamics**: The rise in asset prices is both a result of and a driver for economic recovery, with significant liquidity injections observed in the past [1][19][20] 9. **Market Structure Changes**: The A-share market is expected to move past the 3,000-point mark due to a shift in the investment landscape, with retail investors increasingly participating in the market [1][21][22] 10. **Local Government Influence**: Local government actions are focused on production rather than consumption, necessitating central government intervention to address issues like repeated construction in emerging industries [1][23][24] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Correction Factors**: The historical analysis of market corrections highlights that macro liquidity tightening has the most significant impact, with a median correction magnitude of over 80% [1][12][13] 2. **Future EPS Growth**: The transition to EPS growth as a primary driver of the bull market will require close monitoring of fundamental changes in the economy [1][18][31] 3. **Investment in Large-Cap Stocks**: The preference for large-cap stocks is based on their resilience during economic downturns and the self-reinforcing mechanism of ETF market dynamics [1][27] 4. **Sector-Specific Opportunities**: Recommendations include focusing on undervalued large-cap companies with high free cash flow returns across various sectors, including consumer goods and transportation [1][29]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and strategies of the A-share ETF market in China, particularly focusing on the actions of the national team and the macroeconomic environment affecting the market [1][2][14]. Core Insights and Arguments - **ETF Holdings and Changes**: As of mid-2025, the national team holds approximately 1.3 trillion RMB in A-share ETFs, representing 42% of the total market size, an increase of about 5 percentage points from the end of the previous year. Significant increases were noted in broad-based ETFs, particularly the CSI 300, which saw an increase of over 30 billion shares [2][14]. - **Sector Performance**: The national team increased holdings in sectors such as pharmaceuticals and liquor while reducing positions in healthcare, food and beverage, and 5G communication ETFs. Notably, the chemical and liquor ETFs experienced substantial net inflows in August [2][14]. - **Market Liquidity**: The central bank maintained a net injection of nearly 500 billion RMB, with a focus on MLF operations, leading to a slight increase in money market rates. The credit spread narrowed by approximately 4 basis points [5]. - **Stock Market Activity**: The overall A-share market saw a 1.9% increase, with daily trading volumes approaching 3 trillion RMB. Net inflows into the market reached 130 billion RMB, driven by accelerated financing [6][15]. - **Retail Investor Behavior**: Retail investors showed increased market participation, with direct inflows of 113.4 billion RMB and a shift to net inflows of 68 billion RMB through public and private funds [7][15]. - **Leverage and Foreign Investment**: Leverage funds saw a significant net inflow of 105.3 billion RMB, marking a new high for the year. Foreign investment also increased, with northbound trading accounting for 14% of total trading volume, indicating a growing interest in the Chinese stock market [8][9][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Fundraising and New Issuance**: Public funds raised over 20 billion RMB in new shares, with passive products dominating the market. The flexible allocation funds reached a record high of over 70% in equity positions [11][15]. - **ETF Performance**: The performance of various ETFs showed divergence, with broad-based ETFs experiencing outflows while industry-specific ETFs saw significant inflows, particularly in TMT and cyclical sectors [12][15]. - **Market Indicators**: The "stock-exchange hedging" indicator reached a warning zone, suggesting potential market corrections, while the AH hedging index indicated that A-shares were outperforming H-shares but had not yet entered a warning zone [13]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the A-share ETF market, investor behavior, and macroeconomic influences.