Group 1: Fund Manager Dynamics - A well-known 'fund king' has never received a rating from Jinan due to significant style drift, operating open-end funds like closed-end funds, raising industry concerns [1] Group 2: Market Insights - Goldman Sachs' chief China equity strategist Liu Jinjun and his team support an overweight stance on the Chinese stock market, citing potential resilience in the RMB exchange rate and an expected moderate improvement in corporate earnings [2] - The first batch of innovative floating-rate funds will start selling on May 27, with most products expected to close fundraising in June [3] - Credit bond ETFs are set to officially implement a pledge-style repurchase business, with several public fund institutions' credit bond ETFs meeting the necessary conditions [4] Group 3: Banking Sector - With domestic deposit rates declining, over 70% of A-share listed banks have a dividend yield exceeding 4%, and some banks have yields surpassing 8%, making bank stocks more attractive than traditional savings [5] Group 4: New Fund Launches - 15 new public funds were launched, with over 70% being equity funds, primarily index funds, covering various sectors including fintech, internet, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods [6] Group 5: ETF Market Performance - A-shares experienced a collective adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.05%, Shenzhen Component down 0.41%, and ChiNext down 0.80%, while the Northbound 50 Index rose 1.94% [7] - The total market turnover was 10,339 billion, a decrease of 1,487 billion from the previous day, with nearly 3,800 stocks rising [7] - The gaming sector saw strong performance, with multiple gaming ETFs rising between 2.93% and 2.96% [9] Group 6: Hong Kong Market Trends - Hong Kong automotive stocks experienced a pullback, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect automotive ETF down 4.38% and the Hong Kong automotive ETF down 4.31% [11]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' chief China equity strategist Liu Jinjun and his team report that the Chinese yuan has appreciated approximately 1% since April 2, driven by several factors including stable central bank policies, improved export competitiveness, potential undervaluation of the yuan's real effective exchange rate, a general weakening of the US dollar, and increased demand for diversified asset investments [1] Group 1 - The central bank has maintained a stable yuan-to-dollar midpoint, contributing to the currency's appreciation [1] - China's export competitiveness has improved compared to 2017, supporting the yuan's strength [1] - There is a belief that the yuan's real effective exchange rate may be undervalued, which could provide further support for the currency [1] Group 2 - The overall weakening of the US dollar has created a favorable environment for the yuan [1] - Increased demand for diversified investments has been noted, which may lead to more foreign capital inflows into the Chinese stock market [1] - The potential resilience of the yuan supports a positive outlook for Chinese equities, with expectations of moderate improvement in corporate earnings [1]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and the China Financial Futures Exchange hosted the 2025 Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum, highlighting the resilience of China's exports due to the irreplaceability of high-end products and transshipment trade [1] - Liu Yuanchun emphasized that 2025 will be a complex year influenced by uncertainties from U.S. policies, technological innovation, real estate stabilization, and a package of incremental policy effects [1] - Despite increased external policy uncertainties, China's economy shows significant elasticity and resilience, with March and April export growth exceeding expectations, particularly to non-U.S. countries [1] Group 2 - The resilience of the RMB exchange rate is noted amidst trade policy uncertainties, while the U.S. dollar index has weakened, potentially due to changes in global capital flows and the restructuring of global capital order [2] - Concerns over the unsustainability of U.S. debt have led to rising yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds, which is a contributing factor to the dollar's weakness [2] - The current U.S. government's initiatives aim to reconstruct the manufacturing base, financial system, and global economic governance logic, with tariff policies being just the beginning of deeper challenges in the financial sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy interest rates, indicating a moderately loose monetary policy while the RMB maintains resilience in both domestic and offshore markets [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The reduction in reserve requirement and interest rates is expected to support the stable development of the Chinese economy, contributing to the resilience of the RMB exchange rate [1]. - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield remained stable at around 1.64%, keeping the China-U.S. interest rate differential at approximately -268 basis points, which has deterred speculative capital from shorting the offshore RMB [1][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The offshore RMB exchange rate showed limited volatility, with fluctuations of less than 200 basis points, indicating a calm market response to the monetary policy changes [3]. - Following the announcement, the offshore RMB rate initially fell from 7.188 to 7.229 but stabilized thereafter, reflecting a lack of strong short-selling interest from overseas speculators [4]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves increased by $41 billion in April, reaching $3.2817 trillion, which has contributed to the RMB's resilience against short-selling pressures [5][6]. - The increase in reserves is attributed to a decline in the U.S. dollar index from 104.3 to 99.6, enhancing the value of non-dollar assets in the reserves [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the potential for downward pressure on the RMB from the monetary policy adjustments, the ample foreign exchange reserves provide strong support against depreciation, deterring speculative short-selling [7]. - The RMB is expected to remain stable around the 7.2 level, influenced by the ongoing strength of the Asia-Pacific currencies and the negative correlation with the U.S. dollar index [2][7].

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 宏观 Macroeconomy 特朗普的两个目标均难实现 >>点击图片查看全文<< 特朗普政府试图通过加征关税促使美国贸易逆差收窄，制造业回流，我们认为这两个目标难以通过关税实现。首先，关税难以使得美国贸易逆差收 窄。从理论来看，提升关税并不一定能够缩减逆差（扩大顺差）。根据勒纳对称定理，对进口征税等同于对本国的出口征税。关税难以促使制造业回 流美国。全球供应链对中国的依赖度比较高，而且无论是从劳动者数量、质量，还是就业意愿来看，美国制造业回流都将面临着劳动力短缺的问题。 美国制造业成本高，也是其制造业回流的挑战。特朗普关税或对美国产生滞胀式影响，美国衰退风险加大。除了"滞胀"风险，特朗普的减税、削减支 出和关税组合或将损害美国大多数家庭，对低收入人群损害更大，加剧美国内部不平衡。实际上，从经济视角来看，美国没有非常突出的外部失衡问 题，但内部分配问题很严重。 资料来源：US Census Bureau，中金公司研究部 >>点击图片跳转报告原文<< 2025.04.23 | 张文朗 黄亚东等 02 宏观 Macroeconomy 从汇率、利 ...

中金研究 美国宣布加征关税之后，出现了股债汇"三杀"的罕见局面。除了交易因素以外，从基本面上来讲，市场在定价"美国的滞胀"以及一个"没那么差的欧元 区"。与美国罕见的股债汇"三杀"对应的是人民币汇率韧性。人民币汇率的韧性为松货币增加了空间。除了传统的松货币工具以外，干预风险溢价是更 值得关注的政策选择，央行的结构性工具目前已经在稳定资本市场上有所尝试。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 美国宣布加征关税之后，出现了股债汇"三杀"的罕见局面。除了交易因素以外，从基本面上来讲，市场在定价"美国的滞胀"以及一个"没那么差的欧元 区"。 从1971年1月到现在，美国股债汇同时出现明显下跌[1]的月份只有6个，如果4月美股、美债、美元不再大幅变化，2025年的4月将是1971年以来第7 个单月美国股债汇都出现明显下跌的月份。一般来说，美股下跌、美债上涨、美元上涨是投资者更适应的资产变化组合。但如果美国面临的是"滞胀"风 险，同时其他经济可以凭借"非美国"的力量支撑基本面，那么就有可能出现美国股债汇三杀的局面。2022年12月的美国股债汇三杀可以帮助我们理解这一 轮调整的逻辑。 与美国罕见的股债汇"三杀"对应的是 ...