Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum & Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Analyst: Wang Rong (Chief Analyst/Assistant Director of the Institute) [2] - Date: November 16, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Aluminum prices faced callback pressure at the 22,000 level due to weakening short - term macro risk appetite, but the supply - demand gap may still attract capital. Key bearish risks include a macro recession and over - expected Indonesian electrolytic aluminum production [3][5] - Alumina prices were dragged down by short - term systematic risk appetite, and the fundamental supply pressure remained unsolved [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - **Aluminum**: The price hit a yearly high of 22,000 this week but fell at the end of the week. The SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,840, up 0.53% for the week [5][7] - **Alumina**: The price first rose and then fell, briefly breaking through the 2,800 level. The alumina main contract closed at 2,822, down 0.25% for the week [6][7] 2. Transaction Data - **Spread**: A00 spot premium strengthened, while alumina spot premium weakened. The SHFE aluminum near - month spread weakened [11][12] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract increased significantly, and the trading volume increased slightly. The open interest of the alumina main contract increased slightly and remained at a historical high, while the trading volume decreased slightly [15] - **Open Interest - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - inventory ratio of SHFE aluminum declined, and that of alumina continued to fall and was at a historical low [20] 3. Inventory - **Bauxite**: Port inventory and inventory days increased. The inventory of 43 sample enterprises and alumina plants increased in October. Guinea's port shipments and sea - floating inventory rebounded [25][30][31] - **Alumina**: The national total inventory continued to increase. As of November 13, the national alumina inventory was 4.301 million tons, up 83,000 tons week - on - week [52] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: There was a slight inventory build - up. As of November 13, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 7,000 tons to 614,000 tons [53] - **Processed Products**: The spot and in - plant inventories of aluminum rods decreased. The raw material and finished product inventory ratios of aluminum profiles and aluminum strips and foils diverged [59][62] 4. Production - **Bauxite**: Domestic bauxite supply was stable, with a slight decline in production in October. Imported bauxite was an important factor driving supply growth [67] - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate remained stable, with a weekly production of 1.843 million tons, up 3,000 tons week - on - week, and the supply remained loose [72] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating capacity remained at a high level, with a weekly production of 854,400 tons, up 40 tons week - on - week. The proportion of molten aluminum increased seasonally [75] - **Downstream Processing**: The production of recycled aluminum rods, aluminum rods, and aluminum strips and foils increased slightly. The overall operating rate of downstream leading enterprises increased slightly [78][79] 5. Profit - **Alumina**: The smelting profit declined marginally, with a profit of 135.4 yuan/ton for metallurgical - grade alumina. Profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan were stable, and Guangxi had better profit performance [86] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remained at a high level, but market expectations were disturbed by uncertain factors [98] - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [99] 6. Consumption - **Import and Export**: The import losses of alumina and SHFE aluminum narrowed. In September 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly [108][110] - **Consumption Volume**: The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [115]