铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 日期：2025年11月16日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：短期宏观风偏走弱，22000关口位置遭遇一定回调压力 ◆ 短期微观供需上，年末去库将主要取决于4季度光伏排产的同比降幅，以及来料加工项下的铝锭进口减量，倾向看至年底降至 略高于去年底水位，但绝对位置应仍偏低。铝锭社库本周累库0.7万吨至61.4万吨，60整数关口的库存已维持将近2.5个月。下 游需求侧，本周仍相对有韧性。截至11月14日，SMM华东现货贴水重新转平水，华南现货贴水先抑后扬，仍在贴水145元/吨。 下游方面，截至11月14日铝板带箔周度总产量继续环比回升，年初迄今累计同比下降-1.63%，降幅较前周连续第2周收窄； 截至11月14日铝型材产量仍在稳中下滑。下游加工利润看，铝棒加工费本周一度冲高至340元/吨后有所回落，但幅度温和， 周五较前周回落40元/吨至240元/吨，目前处在历年同期偏中低位， ...

铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年10月19日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：仍在考验21000关口 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 2 ◆ 市场对于中美此轮贸易摩擦是否升级依然心存担忧，但传统有色市场的风险偏好依然较强，尤其以本周伦敦LME年会周传递的情绪来看，资 金依然在热烈追捧例如铜、锡等供给端出现减量扰动的品种——在宏观相对不那么一致性看空的环境里，供给端容易决定高弹性的上涨品种。 而铝金属，则相对受到冷遇，价格走势也持续呈现出震荡收敛。 ◆ 后续针对此次中美关税问题，仍需动态观察是否出现更进一步升级的事态。若走悲观的情景，双方反制升级，并可能引发衰退交易。此种情 形之下，作为制造业罕见高利润品种的铝，不排除有被显著挤利润的向下空间。若此波宏观交易线条结束，中长期趋势性上看，我们在铝的 单边价格、波动率方向、冶炼利润上，继续保持看多方 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and silver, providing insights on their supply, demand, price trends, and investment strategies [1]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Emotions**: The market has digested the supply loss of Grasberg copper mine, with overseas banks raising long - term copper price expectations. The US government shutdown and Sino - US trade issues add to market uncertainty [1]. - **Domestic Supply**: Imported copper concentrate TC is at $80. September domestic copper output decreased by 50,600 tons month - on - month, and is expected to drop by 38,500 tons in October. September copper imports reached 485,000 tons, and consumption is under pressure from high prices [1]. - **Overseas**: ICSC lowered the 2025 copper concentrate supply growth from 2.86% to 1.4% (supply increment from nearly 500,000 tons to 300,000 tons) and next year's growth from 2.55% to 2.3% (supply increment from 800,000 - ton level to 500,000 - ton level). 2025 demand growth is expected at 3.3%, and 2026 at 2.1% [1]. - **Trend**: The copper price is likely to enter a high - level oscillation state after reaching near - record positions last week [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Supply**: Domestic alumina operating capacity is at a historical high of 80 million tons, with a significant surplus. Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable at around 44 million tons [1]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises decreased by 6.5% to 62.5%. September aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: During the National Day, aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 57,000 tons to 649,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 139,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: The aluminum market is oscillating to test previous highs, and the upside space is cautiously viewed [1]. Zinc - **Spot and Futures**: LME inventory is less than 38,000 tons, with a high 0 - 3 months premium. Domestic smelters prefer domestic ore procurement, and import ore TC has rebounded [1]. - **Demand**: Affected by multiple factors, domestic demand is not strong, and social inventory has reached a five - year high of 163,100 tons [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - **Market**: The external market's rising lead price was reversed by policy changes and domestic factory resumptions. LME lead inventory is at a high level of 237,000 tons [1]. - **Supply**: Both primary and secondary lead production are expected to increase in October. The supply of lead concentrate is still tight [1]. - **Demand**: Battery consumption is good, but the sustainability of consumption is in doubt [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Spot and Supply**: There are premiums for different forms of nickel. Nickel and nickel - iron inventories have increased, and stainless - steel inventory has decreased [1]. - **Trend**: The nickel price is weakly operating, with a downward - moving center of gravity [1]. Tin - **Supply**: There is no new news on tin ore resupply, and domestic production is expected to increase in October [1]. - **Demand**: High tin prices affect downstream purchases, and the export of related products has slowed [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai tin has significant two - way price movements. Short positions can be held near 290,000 yuan or sell put options with an execution price of 300,000 yuan for the 25LL contract [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures**: The lithium carbonate futures market is oscillating with light trading [1]. - **Spot**: The price is reported at 23,100 yuan, and the total output has growth potential [1]. - **Demand**: The demand for lithium iron phosphate materials is good, with expected growth in October [1]. - **Inventory**: The total market inventory has decreased, and downstream inventory is at a relatively high level [1]. - **Trend**: The lithium price is supported at a low level, but there is downward pressure [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Xinjiang enterprises plan to increase production in October, and southwest production areas may cut production in November [1]. - **Demand**: The production of polysilicon in October is less than expected, and the operating load of organic silicon enterprises remains stable [1]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory has increased by 200 tons to 545,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: There is a high risk of inventory accumulation in October, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The price has recovered and stabilized between 50,100 - 55,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply contraction is limited in October, and silicon wafer production cuts are frequent in Q4. Demand has decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory has increased by 1.4 million tons to 24 million tons [1]. - **Trend**: The effectiveness of the 40,000 - yuan/ton support level is being tested, and industry meeting news should be followed [1]. Silver - **Strategy**: Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market was affected by sudden tariff disturbances over the weekend, with risks focused on liquidity and recession themes. If the optimistic scenario unfolds, aluminum prices are likely to find buying points on pullbacks; if a recession occurs, there may be significant downward pressure on aluminum profit margins. In the long - term, the report remains bullish on aluminum's unilateral price, volatility, and smelting profit [3]. - The alumina market's center continues to move downward, with valuation and drivers in continuous game. Short - term spot prices are weak, and there is still a risk of further decline [4]. Summaries by Directory Aluminum - **Market Performance**: After the holiday, Shanghai aluminum initially strengthened with other non - ferrous metals but dropped at night on Friday due to Sino - US tariff issues. The decline was relatively mild. Market sentiment on Monday may further pull down prices, and the long - term trend remains bullish [3]. - **Fundamental Indicators**: The SMM East China and South China spot discounts widened. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 47,000 tons to 634,000 tons during the National Day holiday. Downstream production and processing profits generally weakened [3]. - **Downstream Demand**: The overall aluminum processing start - up rate dropped to 62.5% during the National Day holiday. Different downstream sectors showed different performances, with some facing challenges such as weak orders, financial pressure, and logistical constraints [3]. Alumina - **Market Trend**: After the holiday and on Friday night, alumina's performance was weak, and its center continued to move down, currently testing the 2800 support level. The short - term spot market remains weak [4]. - **Price and Inventory**: The spot price continued to decline. The all - caliber social inventory of alumina increased by 105,000 tons to 3.902 million tons as of October 9 [4][51]. Trading - **Price Spreads**: The A00 spot premium weakened, while the alumina spot premium strengthened. The monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum flattened [9][10]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract slightly declined, and the trading volume slightly increased. The open interest of the alumina main contract slightly increased and is at a historical high, and the trading volume also slightly increased [13]. - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum declined, and that of alumina continued to fall and is at a historical low [18]. Inventory - **Bauxite**: Port inventory and inventory days decreased. The inventory of 43 sample enterprises increased by 420,000 tons in September. The shipping volume and floating inventory from Guinea increased, while those from Australia decreased. The outbound volume was divided, and the inbound volume declined [23][28][29]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory continued to increase. As of October 9, the national alumina inventory was 3.902 million tons, an increase of 105,000 tons from the previous week [38][51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The inventory continued to accumulate. As of October 9, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 20,000 tons to 634,000 tons [52]. - **Processed Products**: The spot and in - plant inventories of aluminum rods were divided. The raw material and finished product inventory ratios of aluminum profiles and plate - strip foil were also divided [58][61]. Production - **Bauxite**: Domestic bauxite supply was generally stable. In September, the production of domestic bauxite decreased, with different trends in different provinces [64][66]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of October 10, the total operating capacity of alumina was 98.2 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons from the previous week. The weekly production of domestic metallurgical alumina was 1.863 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week [70]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating capacity remained at a high level. As of October 9, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum was 852,700 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week. The proportion of aluminum water increased seasonally [73]. - **Downstream Processing**: The production of recycled aluminum rods increased, the production of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the production of aluminum plate - strip foil decreased slightly. The start - up rate of leading downstream aluminum enterprises decreased slightly to 62.5% [76][78]. Profit - **Alumina**: The smelting profit declined marginally. The profit of metallurgical alumina was 135.4 yuan/ton. The profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan were stable, and the profit in Guangxi was better [91]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remained at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation and trade policy uncertainties interfered with market expectations [103]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [104]. Consumption - **Import and Export Profits and Losses**: The import losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum narrowed. In August 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly by 8,000 tons month - on - month. The export profits and losses of aluminum processed products were divided [112][114][117]. - **Consumption Volume**: The commercial housing transaction area declined, and the automobile production increased month - on - month [120].

铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年04月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint ◆ 电解铝目前现实端的表现还不算特别疲弱，当然从本周的情况来看，不论是去库还是现货市场的表现，相较于上周都有了一定程度的边际走弱。因 此，在短期内，目前这个价格仍然显得相对坚挺，但展望后市，特别是6、7、8三个月，我们预计下游消费将更明显转弱（尤其以光伏为代表）。 基于这一点，铝价的下行空间，可能会比上行空间更值得关注。宏观面上，短期市场对关税的情绪反馈有所钝化，但并不意味着这一事件的结束， 相反可能还在对此的渐进式消化过程中。 ◆ 后续更倾向于从"未来现实"的层面去寻找进一步的验证点，主要可能来自两个方向：第一个方向是海外端，尤其是关于铝元素的供需情况，是否 真的存在产需缺口，海外的库存消耗周期还有多久。第二个方向，看我们出口端的节奏变化，今年前几个月铝加工材出口表现比较糟糕，1-2月偏弱， 但3月开始略有修复，可能与某些重点区域企业个体化 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pricing of traditional large non - ferrous sectors is mainly driven by the macro - mainline, with the micro - fundamentals or balance - sheet pricing taking a back seat. Aluminum prices are likely to fluctuate within the current price range and await further guidance from the macro and micro aspects. The export demand for aluminum is expected to decline, and the short - term focus for aluminum prices is on the downside space [3]. - Alumina is in a low - level consolidation with a weak upward drive. The search for a price bottom continues, and attention should be paid to the marginal increase in supply in the second quarter [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum - **Market Situation**: Due to the repeated tariff events and the suppression of risk sentiment from overseas macro factors, aluminum prices failed to break through the 21,000 mark in the first quarter and recently dropped below 20,000. The short - term upward drive is weak, and the downward depth is affected by tariff uncertainties and domestic policy expectations. From the perspective of export demand, a decline is still expected [3]. - **Micro - fundamentals**: As of April 10, the weekly social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 30,000 tons to 744,000 tons. The weekly output of aluminum plate, strip, and foil and aluminum profiles declined, and the sample production schedule was slightly stable. The processing fee of aluminum rods increased by 140 yuan/ton to 410 yuan/ton, but the downstream processing profit is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [3]. Alumina - **Market Situation**: Affected by the swing of macro - pricing of traditional non - ferrous metals, alumina is in a low - level consolidation with a slight rebound. However, the main drive for price decline still exists. The market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is approaching the cost anchor. The market is currently relying on supply reduction, but the actual impact of production cuts is limited [4]. - **Micro - fundamentals**: The export window of alumina remains closed. As of April 10, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 53,000 tons to 3,443,000 tons (Aladdin data). The spot price of domestic alumina continued to decline, and the Australian FOB forward - spot price also decreased. The micro - fundamentals lack sufficient positive support, and the price is expected to continue to search for the bottom [4]. Trading End - **Spread**: The term B - structure of Shanghai aluminum has expanded, while that of alumina has narrowed. The near - month spread of Shanghai aluminum has rapidly narrowed [7][10]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest and trading volume of Shanghai aluminum's main contract have declined, while the open interest of alumina's main contract has decreased significantly, but the trading volume has slightly increased. The open - interest - to - inventory ratios of Shanghai aluminum and Shanghai alumina are relatively low [16][21]. Inventory - **Bauxite**: As of April 11, the port inventory and inventory days of imported bauxite increased. In March, the bauxite inventory of alumina enterprises slightly recovered. The port shipping volume decreased significantly, and the arrival volume decreased sharply [25][31][32]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory continued to rise, with a significant reduction in port inventory. As of April 10, the total alumina inventory was 3,443,000 tons, an increase of 53,000 tons from the previous week [43][52]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory continued to decline rapidly. As of April 10, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 30,000 tons to 744,000 tons [53]. - **Aluminum Products**: The spot and in - factory inventories of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the shipping volume decreased significantly. In February, the export of aluminum products declined and was at a historically low level for the same period [58][106]. Production - **Bauxite**: In March, the domestic bauxite supply showed a recovery trend, with significant increases in production according to both Steel Union and SMM data. Imported bauxite was an important factor driving the increase in total supply [65]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate of alumina decreased significantly. As of April 11, the total operating capacity was 82.4 million tons, a weekly decrease of 6 million tons. The weekly output of metallurgical - grade alumina was 1.681 million tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons from the previous week [68]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating capacity remained at a high level, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased seasonally. As of April 11, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum was 837,500 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous week [72]. - **Downstream Processing**: The output of aluminum rods increased, while the output of plate, strip, and foil decreased slightly. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises continued to decline, indicating that the peak season is coming to an end [73][76]. Profit - **Alumina**: The profit of alumina has shown obvious losses, but the loss amplitude is limited. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina according to the Steel Union's data was - 171.7 yuan/ton [88]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum has fully recovered. However, the complex global macro - economic situation and uncertain trade policies have interfered with market expectations [95]. - **Processing Materials**: The processing fee of aluminum rods increased significantly, and the profit improved to some extent [96]. Consumption - **Import and Export**: The import losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have significantly decreased. In February 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products declined, and the export profits of aluminum processing materials showed a divergent trend [104][106]. - **Consumption Volume**: The apparent demand for primary aluminum decreased month - on - month, while the automobile production increased significantly month - on - month [113].