铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年04月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint ◆ 电解铝目前现实端的表现还不算特别疲弱，当然从本周的情况来看，不论是去库还是现货市场的表现，相较于上周都有了一定程度的边际走弱。因 此，在短期内，目前这个价格仍然显得相对坚挺，但展望后市，特别是6、7、8三个月，我们预计下游消费将更明显转弱（尤其以光伏为代表）。 基于这一点，铝价的下行空间，可能会比上行空间更值得关注。宏观面上，短期市场对关税的情绪反馈有所钝化，但并不意味着这一事件的结束， 相反可能还在对此的渐进式消化过程中。 ◆ 后续更倾向于从"未来现实"的层面去寻找进一步的验证点，主要可能来自两个方向：第一个方向是海外端，尤其是关于铝元素的供需情况，是否 真的存在产需缺口，海外的库存消耗周期还有多久。第二个方向，看我们出口端的节奏变化，今年前几个月铝加工材出口表现比较糟糕，1-2月偏弱， 但3月开始略有修复，可能与某些重点区域企业个体化 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pricing of traditional large non - ferrous sectors is mainly driven by the macro - mainline, with the micro - fundamentals or balance - sheet pricing taking a back seat. Aluminum prices are likely to fluctuate within the current price range and await further guidance from the macro and micro aspects. The export demand for aluminum is expected to decline, and the short - term focus for aluminum prices is on the downside space [3]. - Alumina is in a low - level consolidation with a weak upward drive. The search for a price bottom continues, and attention should be paid to the marginal increase in supply in the second quarter [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum - **Market Situation**: Due to the repeated tariff events and the suppression of risk sentiment from overseas macro factors, aluminum prices failed to break through the 21,000 mark in the first quarter and recently dropped below 20,000. The short - term upward drive is weak, and the downward depth is affected by tariff uncertainties and domestic policy expectations. From the perspective of export demand, a decline is still expected [3]. - **Micro - fundamentals**: As of April 10, the weekly social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 30,000 tons to 744,000 tons. The weekly output of aluminum plate, strip, and foil and aluminum profiles declined, and the sample production schedule was slightly stable. The processing fee of aluminum rods increased by 140 yuan/ton to 410 yuan/ton, but the downstream processing profit is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [3]. Alumina - **Market Situation**: Affected by the swing of macro - pricing of traditional non - ferrous metals, alumina is in a low - level consolidation with a slight rebound. However, the main drive for price decline still exists. The market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is approaching the cost anchor. The market is currently relying on supply reduction, but the actual impact of production cuts is limited [4]. - **Micro - fundamentals**: The export window of alumina remains closed. As of April 10, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 53,000 tons to 3,443,000 tons (Aladdin data). The spot price of domestic alumina continued to decline, and the Australian FOB forward - spot price also decreased. The micro - fundamentals lack sufficient positive support, and the price is expected to continue to search for the bottom [4]. Trading End - **Spread**: The term B - structure of Shanghai aluminum has expanded, while that of alumina has narrowed. The near - month spread of Shanghai aluminum has rapidly narrowed [7][10]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest and trading volume of Shanghai aluminum's main contract have declined, while the open interest of alumina's main contract has decreased significantly, but the trading volume has slightly increased. The open - interest - to - inventory ratios of Shanghai aluminum and Shanghai alumina are relatively low [16][21]. Inventory - **Bauxite**: As of April 11, the port inventory and inventory days of imported bauxite increased. In March, the bauxite inventory of alumina enterprises slightly recovered. The port shipping volume decreased significantly, and the arrival volume decreased sharply [25][31][32]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory continued to rise, with a significant reduction in port inventory. As of April 10, the total alumina inventory was 3,443,000 tons, an increase of 53,000 tons from the previous week [43][52]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory continued to decline rapidly. As of April 10, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 30,000 tons to 744,000 tons [53]. - **Aluminum Products**: The spot and in - factory inventories of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the shipping volume decreased significantly. In February, the export of aluminum products declined and was at a historically low level for the same period [58][106]. Production - **Bauxite**: In March, the domestic bauxite supply showed a recovery trend, with significant increases in production according to both Steel Union and SMM data. Imported bauxite was an important factor driving the increase in total supply [65]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate of alumina decreased significantly. As of April 11, the total operating capacity was 82.4 million tons, a weekly decrease of 6 million tons. The weekly output of metallurgical - grade alumina was 1.681 million tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons from the previous week [68]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating capacity remained at a high level, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased seasonally. As of April 11, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum was 837,500 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous week [72]. - **Downstream Processing**: The output of aluminum rods increased, while the output of plate, strip, and foil decreased slightly. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises continued to decline, indicating that the peak season is coming to an end [73][76]. Profit - **Alumina**: The profit of alumina has shown obvious losses, but the loss amplitude is limited. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina according to the Steel Union's data was - 171.7 yuan/ton [88]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum has fully recovered. However, the complex global macro - economic situation and uncertain trade policies have interfered with market expectations [95]. - **Processing Materials**: The processing fee of aluminum rods increased significantly, and the profit improved to some extent [96]. Consumption - **Import and Export**: The import losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have significantly decreased. In February 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products declined, and the export profits of aluminum processing materials showed a divergent trend [104][106]. - **Consumption Volume**: The apparent demand for primary aluminum decreased month - on - month, while the automobile production increased significantly month - on - month [113].