Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum & Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Analyst: Wang Rong (Chief Analyst/Assistant Director of the Institute) [2] - Date: November 16, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Aluminum prices faced callback pressure at the 22,000 level due to weakening short - term macro risk appetite, but the supply - demand gap may still attract capital. Key bearish risks include a macro recession and over - expected Indonesian electrolytic aluminum production [3][5] - Alumina prices were dragged down by short - term systematic risk appetite, and the fundamental supply pressure remained unsolved [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - **Aluminum**: The price hit a yearly high of 22,000 this week but fell at the end of the week. The SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,840, up 0.53% for the week [5][7] - **Alumina**: The price first rose and then fell, briefly breaking through the 2,800 level. The alumina main contract closed at 2,822, down 0.25% for the week [6][7] 2. Transaction Data - **Spread**: A00 spot premium strengthened, while alumina spot premium weakened. The SHFE aluminum near - month spread weakened [11][12] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract increased significantly, and the trading volume increased slightly. The open interest of the alumina main contract increased slightly and remained at a historical high, while the trading volume decreased slightly [15] - **Open Interest - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - inventory ratio of SHFE aluminum declined, and that of alumina continued to fall and was at a historical low [20] 3. Inventory - **Bauxite**: Port inventory and inventory days increased. The inventory of 43 sample enterprises and alumina plants increased in October. Guinea's port shipments and sea - floating inventory rebounded [25][30][31] - **Alumina**: The national total inventory continued to increase. As of November 13, the national alumina inventory was 4.301 million tons, up 83,000 tons week - on - week [52] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: There was a slight inventory build - up. As of November 13, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 7,000 tons to 614,000 tons [53] - **Processed Products**: The spot and in - plant inventories of aluminum rods decreased. The raw material and finished product inventory ratios of aluminum profiles and aluminum strips and foils diverged [59][62] 4. Production - **Bauxite**: Domestic bauxite supply was stable, with a slight decline in production in October. Imported bauxite was an important factor driving supply growth [67] - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate remained stable, with a weekly production of 1.843 million tons, up 3,000 tons week - on - week, and the supply remained loose [72] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating capacity remained at a high level, with a weekly production of 854,400 tons, up 40 tons week - on - week. The proportion of molten aluminum increased seasonally [75] - **Downstream Processing**: The production of recycled aluminum rods, aluminum rods, and aluminum strips and foils increased slightly. The overall operating rate of downstream leading enterprises increased slightly [78][79] 5. Profit - **Alumina**: The smelting profit declined marginally, with a profit of 135.4 yuan/ton for metallurgical - grade alumina. Profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan were stable, and Guangxi had better profit performance [86] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remained at a high level, but market expectations were disturbed by uncertain factors [98] - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [99] 6. Consumption - **Import and Export**: The import losses of alumina and SHFE aluminum narrowed. In September 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly [108][110] - **Consumption Volume**: The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [115]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is still testing the 21,000 mark. There are concerns about the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions, but the risk appetite in the traditional non-ferrous market remains strong. Aluminum is relatively neglected, and its price shows a convergent trend. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the development of Sino-US tariff issues. In the long term, there is a bullish outlook on aluminum's unilateral price, volatility, and smelting profit [3]. - For alumina, it is necessary to focus on whether the bottom has been found below 2,800. The spot market remains weak in the short term, but it has entered the test of cost valuation support. The downward space depends on the marginal surplus of the supply side [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Trading End - **Term Spread**: This week, the A00 spot premium strengthened, with the average SMM A00 aluminum premium changing from -50 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium changing from -115 yuan/ton to -105 yuan/ton. The alumina spot premium also strengthened, with the Shandong alumina premium to the current month changing from 23 yuan/ton to 39 yuan/ton, and the Henan alumina premium to the current month changing from 93 yuan/ton to 94 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai aluminum narrowed. The spread changed from -20 yuan to -25 yuan, and the spread percentage changed from -0.10% to -0.12% [10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract increased slightly, while the trading volume decreased slightly. The open interest of the alumina main contract increased slightly and is at a historical high, while the trading volume decreased slightly [13]. - **Open Interest - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum decreased, and the open interest - inventory ratio of alumina continued to decline and is at a historical low [18]. 3.2 Inventory - **Bauxite**: As of October 17, the port inventory of imported bauxite increased by 653,000 tons compared with last week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same. As of September, the port inventory and inventory days of Chinese bauxite continued to increase. In September, the inventory of 43 sample enterprises' bauxite increased by 420,000 tons, and the inventory days in alumina plants also increased. As of October 17, the port shipping volume and sea - floating inventory of Guinea bauxite decreased, while the port shipping volume of Australian bauxite increased slightly, and the sea - floating inventory decreased slightly. As of October 10, the outbound volume and arrival volume of bauxite decreased [23][28][29]. - **Alumina**: This week, the total alumina inventory continued to increase, with an increase of 63,000 tons compared with last week. As of October 16, the national alumina inventory was 4.017 million tons, an increase of 115,000 tons compared with last week [44][51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of October 16, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 19,000 tons to 615,000 tons, showing a destocking trend [52]. - **Processed Materials**: This week, the spot inventory and in - plant inventory of aluminum rods decreased. As of September, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles and aluminum strips and foils decreased slightly, while the raw - material inventory ratio increased slightly [56][59]. 3.3 Production - **Bauxite**: The domestic bauxite supply is mainly stable. In September, the domestic bauxite production decreased slightly. Imported bauxite is an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. In September, the bauxite production in Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi showed different trends [62][65]. - **Alumina**: The alumina capacity utilization rate remained basically stable. As of October 17, the total operating capacity of national alumina was 96.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons compared with the previous week. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 1.861 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared with last week [69]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of September, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate remained high due to profit repair. As of October 16, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum was 852,900 tons, an increase of 20 tons compared with the previous week. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, the proportion of aluminum water increased seasonally [72]. - **Downstream Processing**: This week, the production of recycled aluminum rods, aluminum rods, and aluminum strips and foils increased. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises remained unchanged. The operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased, the operating rate of aluminum cables remained unchanged, the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloys decreased, and the operating rate of primary aluminum alloys increased [75][76][78]. 3.4 Profit - **Alumina**: This week, the alumina profit decreased slightly, with the metallurgical - grade alumina profit at 135.4 yuan/ton. The profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, and the profit in Guangxi was better than that in other regions [82]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum profit remains at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [94]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods increased by 50 yuan/ton this week, but the downstream processing profit is still at a low level [95]. 3.5 Consumption - **Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have narrowed [104]. - **Export**: In August 2025, the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly, a decrease of 8,000 tons compared with the previous month. The export profit and loss of aluminum processed materials showed differentiation [106][109]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand of primary aluminum and aluminum rods showed different trends. The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [113][115][116].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and silver, providing insights on their supply, demand, price trends, and investment strategies [1]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Emotions**: The market has digested the supply loss of Grasberg copper mine, with overseas banks raising long - term copper price expectations. The US government shutdown and Sino - US trade issues add to market uncertainty [1]. - **Domestic Supply**: Imported copper concentrate TC is at $80. September domestic copper output decreased by 50,600 tons month - on - month, and is expected to drop by 38,500 tons in October. September copper imports reached 485,000 tons, and consumption is under pressure from high prices [1]. - **Overseas**: ICSC lowered the 2025 copper concentrate supply growth from 2.86% to 1.4% (supply increment from nearly 500,000 tons to 300,000 tons) and next year's growth from 2.55% to 2.3% (supply increment from 800,000 - ton level to 500,000 - ton level). 2025 demand growth is expected at 3.3%, and 2026 at 2.1% [1]. - **Trend**: The copper price is likely to enter a high - level oscillation state after reaching near - record positions last week [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Supply**: Domestic alumina operating capacity is at a historical high of 80 million tons, with a significant surplus. Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable at around 44 million tons [1]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises decreased by 6.5% to 62.5%. September aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: During the National Day, aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 57,000 tons to 649,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 139,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: The aluminum market is oscillating to test previous highs, and the upside space is cautiously viewed [1]. Zinc - **Spot and Futures**: LME inventory is less than 38,000 tons, with a high 0 - 3 months premium. Domestic smelters prefer domestic ore procurement, and import ore TC has rebounded [1]. - **Demand**: Affected by multiple factors, domestic demand is not strong, and social inventory has reached a five - year high of 163,100 tons [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - **Market**: The external market's rising lead price was reversed by policy changes and domestic factory resumptions. LME lead inventory is at a high level of 237,000 tons [1]. - **Supply**: Both primary and secondary lead production are expected to increase in October. The supply of lead concentrate is still tight [1]. - **Demand**: Battery consumption is good, but the sustainability of consumption is in doubt [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Spot and Supply**: There are premiums for different forms of nickel. Nickel and nickel - iron inventories have increased, and stainless - steel inventory has decreased [1]. - **Trend**: The nickel price is weakly operating, with a downward - moving center of gravity [1]. Tin - **Supply**: There is no new news on tin ore resupply, and domestic production is expected to increase in October [1]. - **Demand**: High tin prices affect downstream purchases, and the export of related products has slowed [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai tin has significant two - way price movements. Short positions can be held near 290,000 yuan or sell put options with an execution price of 300,000 yuan for the 25LL contract [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures**: The lithium carbonate futures market is oscillating with light trading [1]. - **Spot**: The price is reported at 23,100 yuan, and the total output has growth potential [1]. - **Demand**: The demand for lithium iron phosphate materials is good, with expected growth in October [1]. - **Inventory**: The total market inventory has decreased, and downstream inventory is at a relatively high level [1]. - **Trend**: The lithium price is supported at a low level, but there is downward pressure [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Xinjiang enterprises plan to increase production in October, and southwest production areas may cut production in November [1]. - **Demand**: The production of polysilicon in October is less than expected, and the operating load of organic silicon enterprises remains stable [1]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory has increased by 200 tons to 545,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: There is a high risk of inventory accumulation in October, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The price has recovered and stabilized between 50,100 - 55,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply contraction is limited in October, and silicon wafer production cuts are frequent in Q4. Demand has decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory has increased by 1.4 million tons to 24 million tons [1]. - **Trend**: The effectiveness of the 40,000 - yuan/ton support level is being tested, and industry meeting news should be followed [1]. Silver - **Strategy**: Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market was affected by sudden tariff disturbances over the weekend, with risks focused on liquidity and recession themes. If the optimistic scenario unfolds, aluminum prices are likely to find buying points on pullbacks; if a recession occurs, there may be significant downward pressure on aluminum profit margins. In the long - term, the report remains bullish on aluminum's unilateral price, volatility, and smelting profit [3]. - The alumina market's center continues to move downward, with valuation and drivers in continuous game. Short - term spot prices are weak, and there is still a risk of further decline [4]. Summaries by Directory Aluminum - **Market Performance**: After the holiday, Shanghai aluminum initially strengthened with other non - ferrous metals but dropped at night on Friday due to Sino - US tariff issues. The decline was relatively mild. Market sentiment on Monday may further pull down prices, and the long - term trend remains bullish [3]. - **Fundamental Indicators**: The SMM East China and South China spot discounts widened. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 47,000 tons to 634,000 tons during the National Day holiday. Downstream production and processing profits generally weakened [3]. - **Downstream Demand**: The overall aluminum processing start - up rate dropped to 62.5% during the National Day holiday. Different downstream sectors showed different performances, with some facing challenges such as weak orders, financial pressure, and logistical constraints [3]. Alumina - **Market Trend**: After the holiday and on Friday night, alumina's performance was weak, and its center continued to move down, currently testing the 2800 support level. The short - term spot market remains weak [4]. - **Price and Inventory**: The spot price continued to decline. The all - caliber social inventory of alumina increased by 105,000 tons to 3.902 million tons as of October 9 [4][51]. Trading - **Price Spreads**: The A00 spot premium weakened, while the alumina spot premium strengthened. The monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum flattened [9][10]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract slightly declined, and the trading volume slightly increased. The open interest of the alumina main contract slightly increased and is at a historical high, and the trading volume also slightly increased [13]. - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum declined, and that of alumina continued to fall and is at a historical low [18]. Inventory - **Bauxite**: Port inventory and inventory days decreased. The inventory of 43 sample enterprises increased by 420,000 tons in September. The shipping volume and floating inventory from Guinea increased, while those from Australia decreased. The outbound volume was divided, and the inbound volume declined [23][28][29]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory continued to increase. As of October 9, the national alumina inventory was 3.902 million tons, an increase of 105,000 tons from the previous week [38][51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The inventory continued to accumulate. As of October 9, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 20,000 tons to 634,000 tons [52]. - **Processed Products**: The spot and in - plant inventories of aluminum rods were divided. The raw material and finished product inventory ratios of aluminum profiles and plate - strip foil were also divided [58][61]. Production - **Bauxite**: Domestic bauxite supply was generally stable. In September, the production of domestic bauxite decreased, with different trends in different provinces [64][66]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of October 10, the total operating capacity of alumina was 98.2 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons from the previous week. The weekly production of domestic metallurgical alumina was 1.863 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week [70]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating capacity remained at a high level. As of October 9, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum was 852,700 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week. The proportion of aluminum water increased seasonally [73]. - **Downstream Processing**: The production of recycled aluminum rods increased, the production of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the production of aluminum plate - strip foil decreased slightly. The start - up rate of leading downstream aluminum enterprises decreased slightly to 62.5% [76][78]. Profit - **Alumina**: The smelting profit declined marginally. The profit of metallurgical alumina was 135.4 yuan/ton. The profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan were stable, and the profit in Guangxi was better [91]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remained at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation and trade policy uncertainties interfered with market expectations [103]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [104]. Consumption - **Import and Export Profits and Losses**: The import losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum narrowed. In August 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly by 8,000 tons month - on - month. The export profits and losses of aluminum processed products were divided [112][114][117]. - **Consumption Volume**: The commercial housing transaction area declined, and the automobile production increased month - on - month [120].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current reality of electrolytic aluminum is not particularly weak, but it has shown a marginal weakening compared to last week. In the short term, the price remains relatively firm, but in the future, especially from June to August, downstream consumption is expected to weaken more significantly, and the downside space of aluminum prices may be more worthy of attention. The market's emotional feedback on tariffs has become dull in the short term, but the event may still be in the process of gradual digestion. [3] - Alumina prices are continuing to grind at the bottom, and it is necessary to examine the willingness of funds. Although the micro - fundamentals currently lack sufficient bullish support, the recent stabilization and rebound of the spot side may be partly due to the replenishment of northern electrolytic aluminum production areas, the short - term price support of alumina manufacturers, and the increase in tender prices by middlemen. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End: Spreads, Volume, and Open Interest - **Term Spreads**: The term structure of SHFE aluminum is gradually shifting to a C - structure, with the average SMM A00 aluminum premium changing from 50 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium changing from 35 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton. The term B - structure of alumina is narrowing, with the premium of Shandong alumina to the current month changing from 24 yuan/ton to - 7 yuan/ton, and that of Henan alumina changing from 59 yuan/ton to 28 yuan/ton. [9] - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between near - term contracts of SHFE aluminum are narrowing. [10] - **Open Interest and Volume**: The open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract has significantly declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The open interest of the alumina main contract has continued to rise, with a slight decline during the week, and the trading volume of the alumina main contract has also slightly declined during the week. [12] - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of the SHFE aluminum main contract has slightly decreased but is higher than the same period last year. The open interest - to - inventory ratio of alumina has continued to decline and is at a historically low level. [16] 3.2 Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - **Bauxite**: - Port inventory and inventory days have increased synchronously. As of April 25, the weekly import bauxite port inventory of SteelHome has shown a significant increase, with a week - on - week increase of 390,000 tons, and the port inventory days have also increased synchronously. [20] - In March, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises across the country has slightly increased, with a month - on - month increase of 220,000 tons, while the bauxite inventory days in alumina plants have decreased. [26] - Port shipments and sea - drifting inventory have both declined significantly. As of April 25, the weekly shipments from Guinea and Australian ports have decreased significantly, and the Australian sea - drifting inventory has also decreased significantly, while the Guinea sea - drifting inventory has slightly increased. [27] - Out - port and in - port volumes have declined significantly. As of April 18, the out - port volumes from Australian and Guinean ports and the in - port volume of bauxite under the SMM caliber have all decreased significantly. [32] - **Alumina**: - The total national inventory has decreased, but the port inventory has increased significantly. This week, the total alumina inventory has decreased by 70,000 tons week - on - week. The in - plant inventory has decreased, the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory has slightly decreased, the port inventory has increased significantly, and the station/on - the - way inventory has slightly decreased. [42] - The full - caliber inventory of阿拉丁 has decreased. As of April 24, the national alumina inventory has decreased by 260,000 tons week - on - week, with a significant decrease in the in - plant inventory, a stable electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory, a significant increase in the port inventory, and a decrease in the yard/station/on - the - way inventory. [46] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory has continued to decline at a fast pace. As of April 24, the weekly inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased by 24,000 tons to 664,000 tons, and the de - stocking pace is faster than in previous years. [52] - **Aluminum Rods**: The spot and in - plant inventories have continued to decline, and the out - port volume has slightly increased. This week, the downstream aluminum rod spot and in - plant inventories have decreased by 33,000 tons and 13,500 tons respectively week - on - week. [53] - **Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Foil**: The raw material and finished product inventory ratios have declined significantly. Since March, the finished product inventory ratios of aluminum profiles and plate - foil have decreased significantly, and the raw material inventory ratio of plate - foil has continued to decline, while that of aluminum profiles has remained relatively flat. [55] 3.3 Production: Output, Capacity, and Operating Rate - **Bauxite**: Domestic bauxite supply has recovered, but the increase is limited. In March, the domestic bauxite output under both the SteelHome and SMM calibers has increased significantly, and imported bauxite supply is still an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. [60] - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate has continued to decline, and the fundamental pattern of oversupply has not been reversed. As of April 25, the total operating capacity of alumina in the country is 82 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.7 million tons in the weekly operating capacity. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output is 1.594 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons week - on - week, but it is still at a high level in recent years. [63] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating capacity has remained at a high level, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased seasonally. As of March, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has continued to remain at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate has significantly recovered due to profit repair. As of April 24, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum under the SteelHome caliber is 840,800 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons week - on - week, and the output level remains at a six - year high. [67] - **Downstream Processing**: - The output of aluminum profiles and plate - foil has significantly increased. This week, the output of recycled aluminum rods has continued to decline, the output of aluminum rods has increased slightly, and the output of plate - foil has continued to rise. [70] - The operating rate of leading enterprises has slightly increased, providing some micro - level support. This week, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream enterprises has increased by 0.15% to 62.52%. The operating rates of plate - strip and foil have remained flat, the operating rate of aluminum profiles has slightly increased, the operating rate of aluminum cables has remained unchanged, the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy has continued to be under pressure, and the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy has slightly increased. [71][75] 3.4 Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - **Alumina**: Profits have improved, and attention should be paid to the price of imported ore. This week, the profit of alumina has improved, with the profit of metallurgical - grade alumina under the SteelHome caliber being - 56.9 yuan/ton, and the loss has narrowed. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan have all shown slight losses, while the profit performance of Guangxi is better than that of other regions. [81] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Profits have fully recovered, but uncertain factors are interfering with market expectations. The profits of electrolytic aluminum have fully recovered, but the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertain factors and interfered with market expectations. [88] - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods has significantly declined, and the downstream processing profit remains at a low level. The weekly processing fee of aluminum rods has decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the downstream processing profit remains at a low level. [89] 3.5 Consumption: Import Profit and Loss, Export Profit and Loss, and Apparent Demand - **Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and SHFE aluminum have declined. [97] - **Export**: In March, the export of aluminum products has significantly recovered. In March 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products has significantly increased, with a month - on - month increase of 98,000 tons. [99] - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for aluminum rods has significantly recovered, and the monthly output of automobiles has increased significantly. [106]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pricing of traditional large non - ferrous sectors is mainly driven by the macro - mainline, with the micro - fundamentals or balance - sheet pricing taking a back seat. Aluminum prices are likely to fluctuate within the current price range and await further guidance from the macro and micro aspects. The export demand for aluminum is expected to decline, and the short - term focus for aluminum prices is on the downside space [3]. - Alumina is in a low - level consolidation with a weak upward drive. The search for a price bottom continues, and attention should be paid to the marginal increase in supply in the second quarter [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum - **Market Situation**: Due to the repeated tariff events and the suppression of risk sentiment from overseas macro factors, aluminum prices failed to break through the 21,000 mark in the first quarter and recently dropped below 20,000. The short - term upward drive is weak, and the downward depth is affected by tariff uncertainties and domestic policy expectations. From the perspective of export demand, a decline is still expected [3]. - **Micro - fundamentals**: As of April 10, the weekly social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 30,000 tons to 744,000 tons. The weekly output of aluminum plate, strip, and foil and aluminum profiles declined, and the sample production schedule was slightly stable. The processing fee of aluminum rods increased by 140 yuan/ton to 410 yuan/ton, but the downstream processing profit is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [3]. Alumina - **Market Situation**: Affected by the swing of macro - pricing of traditional non - ferrous metals, alumina is in a low - level consolidation with a slight rebound. However, the main drive for price decline still exists. The market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is approaching the cost anchor. The market is currently relying on supply reduction, but the actual impact of production cuts is limited [4]. - **Micro - fundamentals**: The export window of alumina remains closed. As of April 10, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 53,000 tons to 3,443,000 tons (Aladdin data). The spot price of domestic alumina continued to decline, and the Australian FOB forward - spot price also decreased. The micro - fundamentals lack sufficient positive support, and the price is expected to continue to search for the bottom [4]. Trading End - **Spread**: The term B - structure of Shanghai aluminum has expanded, while that of alumina has narrowed. The near - month spread of Shanghai aluminum has rapidly narrowed [7][10]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest and trading volume of Shanghai aluminum's main contract have declined, while the open interest of alumina's main contract has decreased significantly, but the trading volume has slightly increased. The open - interest - to - inventory ratios of Shanghai aluminum and Shanghai alumina are relatively low [16][21]. Inventory - **Bauxite**: As of April 11, the port inventory and inventory days of imported bauxite increased. In March, the bauxite inventory of alumina enterprises slightly recovered. The port shipping volume decreased significantly, and the arrival volume decreased sharply [25][31][32]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory continued to rise, with a significant reduction in port inventory. As of April 10, the total alumina inventory was 3,443,000 tons, an increase of 53,000 tons from the previous week [43][52]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory continued to decline rapidly. As of April 10, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 30,000 tons to 744,000 tons [53]. - **Aluminum Products**: The spot and in - factory inventories of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the shipping volume decreased significantly. In February, the export of aluminum products declined and was at a historically low level for the same period [58][106]. Production - **Bauxite**: In March, the domestic bauxite supply showed a recovery trend, with significant increases in production according to both Steel Union and SMM data. Imported bauxite was an important factor driving the increase in total supply [65]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate of alumina decreased significantly. As of April 11, the total operating capacity was 82.4 million tons, a weekly decrease of 6 million tons. The weekly output of metallurgical - grade alumina was 1.681 million tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons from the previous week [68]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating capacity remained at a high level, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased seasonally. As of April 11, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum was 837,500 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous week [72]. - **Downstream Processing**: The output of aluminum rods increased, while the output of plate, strip, and foil decreased slightly. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises continued to decline, indicating that the peak season is coming to an end [73][76]. Profit - **Alumina**: The profit of alumina has shown obvious losses, but the loss amplitude is limited. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina according to the Steel Union's data was - 171.7 yuan/ton [88]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum has fully recovered. However, the complex global macro - economic situation and uncertain trade policies have interfered with market expectations [95]. - **Processing Materials**: The processing fee of aluminum rods increased significantly, and the profit improved to some extent [96]. Consumption - **Import and Export**: The import losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have significantly decreased. In February 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products declined, and the export profits of aluminum processing materials showed a divergent trend [104][106]. - **Consumption Volume**: The apparent demand for primary aluminum decreased month - on - month, while the automobile production increased significantly month - on - month [113].