Group 1: Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices - The escalation of conflict in the Middle East, particularly Israel's airstrike on Iran, has led to a significant surge in oil prices, with Brent and WTI reaching highs of $78.5 and $74.63 per barrel, respectively, marking daily increases of 12.0% and 13.2%[3] - Historical context shows that similar geopolitical tensions in the 1970s and 1980s resulted in oil supply reductions and subsequent economic impacts, including high inflation rates in the U.S. reaching peaks of 12.2% and 11.9% for overall and core CPI, respectively[4] Group 2: U.S. Economic Policy and Inflation - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced new tariffs on various steel household appliances, which may accelerate the rebound of core inflation, previously subdued by temporary factors[5] - The core PPI in the U.S. slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7% in May, indicating a potential shift in inflation dynamics due to the new tariffs and rising oil prices[5] - Federal Reserve Chair Powell has expressed concerns about potential stagflation risks, suggesting that the Fed's current stance may be relatively accommodative, with low probabilities for significant rate cuts this year[5] Group 3: Domestic Economic Outlook - China's mid-range consumer goods exports have weakened recently, and the new U.S. tariffs could introduce uncertainties in export dynamics, necessitating increased fiscal support to mitigate risks[5] - The central government may need to enhance subsidies for domestic consumption of durable goods, especially if export pressures increase due to U.S. tariff policies[5] - A potential small rate cut of 10 basis points may be considered to stabilize real estate expectations and stimulate durable goods consumption amid a low U.S. dollar index[5]