Core Viewpoint - The ongoing military conflict between Ukraine and Russia has led to significant disruptions in Russia's oil supply, with Ukrainian forces targeting key energy infrastructure, resulting in a "oil crisis" within Russia [1][4]. Group 1: Impact on Russian Oil Supply - Ukrainian military has intensified attacks on Russian energy facilities, including oil refineries and power substations, causing severe disruptions in energy production [1][2]. - The new Shakhytsynsk refinery in Saratov Oblast, a major oil fuel supplier with a storage capacity of 210,000 cubic meters, was significantly damaged, leading to a loss of operational capability [1]. - As of now, 10% of Russian refineries are reported to be offline due to attacks or equipment failures, contributing to a rise in domestic fuel prices [4]. Group 2: Regional Energy Crisis - The attacks have led to gasoline shortages in multiple regions of Russia, with wholesale prices for 95-octane gasoline increasing by over 55% since the beginning of the year [4]. - The railway transport system in Voronezh has been severely disrupted following attacks on local substations, affecting fuel supply logistics [2]. - The energy crisis is exacerbated by seasonal fuel demand increases, with reports indicating a noticeable "oil crisis" in both Russia and parts of Ukraine under Russian control [4]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The situation highlights the effectiveness of Ukrainian military tactics against Russian energy infrastructure, raising concerns about the sustainability of Russia's energy supply in the face of ongoing conflict [4]. - Despite the severity of the situation, military analysts suggest that a complete collapse of Russia's energy system is not imminent, with expectations of a price stabilization by September [4].

Group 1 - Japan is currently taking a strong stance against the U.S. regarding tariffs, refusing to easily accept a proposed 25% tariff and responding with strong condemnation to U.S. threats of retaliation [1] - Historical context shows that Japan's previous compliance with U.S. demands, such as the Plaza Accord in 1985, led to significant economic downturns, including a prolonged period of stagnation known as the "Lost Decade" [3][6] - Japan's economy experienced a significant bubble in the 1980s, with real estate prices in Tokyo reaching over 200 million RMB per square meter and the Nikkei index peaking above 37,000 points, which was only recently surpassed [4][6] Group 2 - The current economic situation for Japan is precarious, as it has lost access to Russian oil and gas, making it increasingly reliant on the U.S. for energy resources [7] - Japanese manufacturers are considering relocating factories to the U.S. to reduce costs, which poses a risk to Japan's domestic manufacturing base and economic stability [7] - Japan holds over $1 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, which serves as a potential leverage point in negotiations, although Japan's diplomatic relations with other countries have weakened, limiting its options [8]

以色列方面，以军继续空袭伊朗军事目标，并首次远程空袭伊朗的战略导弹指挥中心。国际原子能机构 总干事格罗西就伊朗局势向联合国安理会发表声明，通报了伊朗核设施受损情况。据报道，在美国袭击 后，伊朗核设施遭受了大面积破坏，其中一些建筑可能含有核材料。其地下隧道的入口也受到了影响， 纳坦兹设施也受到了直接影响，但内部受损程度无法确定。此前该设施已遭到严重破坏，而如今又再次 遭到美国钻地弹的袭击，目前未报告场外辐射增加。防止核辐射扩散关系到民众健康，后续要持续关注 伊朗核设施泄漏的情况。 在当前国际局势动荡不安，中东局势冲突升级的背景下，A股市场表现也出现了一定的震荡调整，但并 没有出现抛售。前期表现强势的创新药板块继续有所表现，但出现了分化。华为发布光刻机取得突破的 消息提振了投资者对于国产芯片的信心，这可能有利于推动科技行情的启动。 下半年行情即将到来，整体来看，在经过两个月的调整之后，7月份市场有望延续科技股的强势表现， 出现上涨行情。相对于上半年特别是二季度市场的震荡调整，下半年市场有望实现突破，从而产生较强 的赚钱效应。下半年行情有望突破3000点到3400点的箱体，实现震荡上行的走势。 伊朗外长阿拉格奇6月 ...

Group 1 - The conflict between Israel and Iran is escalating, impacting the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and creating new shocks to the international energy market, which could affect global supply chains and economic growth [1] - Historical conflicts in the Middle East have led to significant volatility in global energy markets, and the current situation is expected to lead to a period of turbulence in international oil prices [1][2] - Iran's oil production remains over 3 million barrels per day, with exports around 2 million barrels per day, but any disruption due to the conflict could significantly impact international energy supply [2] Group 2 - The potential impact of the conflict on other Gulf oil-producing countries, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, is noteworthy, although they have not yet been directly affected [3] - Iraq's security situation is critical, as it lies in the path of the conflict, and any escalation could disrupt its oil production [3] - The possibility of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz is a significant variable that could lead to a spike in international oil prices, although Iran is unlikely to take such action unless absolutely necessary [4] Group 3 - The overall impact of the conflict on Iran's oil exports is manageable, as other OPEC+ countries have the capacity to compensate for any potential shortfall [5] - The current global oil demand is slowing, and supply remains relatively ample, which may buffer the effects of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4][5] - The ongoing conflict poses risks of escalation, including potential Iranian attacks on U.S. military bases and threats to the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to further instability in the international energy market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The current conflict poses minimal risk to oil supply, differing from previous oil crises, as Iran accounts for only 1.6% of global oil production and has not reported any supply disruptions [1] Industry Summary - Iran's contribution to global oil production is limited to 1.6%, indicating that its geopolitical issues may not significantly impact overall supply levels [1] - There have been no reported supply interruptions from Iran, suggesting stability in the oil market despite ongoing conflicts [1]

Global Asset Price Review - Global political instability continues to rise, with significant events including U.S.-China communications and armed conflict between Israel and Iran, leading to a substantial increase in oil prices [1][6] - Brent crude oil prices surged by 12.80% this week, while gold prices increased by 3.65% [1][8] - Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, with specific performance metrics showing emerging markets at 0.60%, Hang Seng Index at 0.42%, and S&P 500 down by 0.39% [1][6] Global Fund Flows - There was a notable outflow from global money markets and developed market equities, with U.S. equity funds experiencing a significant outflow of $90.8 billion [2][13] - In contrast, U.S. fixed income funds saw an inflow of $54.2 billion, indicating a shift in investor preference [2][13] - Domestic capital outflow from China amounted to $21.46 billion, while foreign capital inflow was $5.95 billion, highlighting a trend of passive inflows and active outflows in the Chinese market [2][13][16] Global Market Risk Indicators - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices showed a general pullback, with a rise in the bullish sentiment among retail investors, as the bullish ratio increased to 36.67% [4] - The risk-adjusted return metrics for the A-share market remain significantly higher than those of overseas markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index's ERP at 71% [3][10] Macro Economic Observations - U.S. economic data indicates signs of stagflation, with manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs weakening, and the CPI showing a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [5] - The market anticipates a delay in interest rate cuts, with a 71.3% probability of a rate cut in September [5]

2025 年 06 月 15 日 全球地缘不确定性上升，"石油危 机"情景预演 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250606-20250614) 相关研究 - 证券分析师 金倩婧 A0230513070004 jinqj@swsresearch.com 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 fengxy2@swsresearch.com 林遵东 A0230524100005 linzd@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 涂锦文 A0230123070009 tujw@swsresearch.com 联系人 涂锦文 (8621)23297818× tujw@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共20页 简单金融 成就梦想 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 大 类 资 产 配 置 告 ⚫ 全球资产价格回顾：本周（20250606–20250614）。本周全球政治不稳定性持续上升。中美方面，人 民日报消息，中美双方进行了专业 ...

宏 观 研 究 2025 年 06 月 13 日 中东冲突升级、美再加征关税，美联储还能降息吗？ ——宏观周报（第 8 期） 投资要点： 宏 观 定 以色列向主要产油国、OPEC 成员国之一的伊朗发动空袭，中东地区 冲突局势再度升级，原油价格大幅飙升。当地时间 6 月 12 日凌晨，以色列 对 OPEC 成员国之一的伊朗发动袭击，受此影响，原油现货价格大幅飙升， 6 月 13 日盘内布伦特原油和 WTI 原油价格一度分别上冲至最高 78.5 美元/ 桶、74.63 美元/桶，日内最高涨幅分别高达 12.0%和 13.2%。此前国际原油 价格受 OPEC+增产计划影响而持续低位运行的局面或将有所逆转。 期 报 告 1970s-1980s 两次石油危机的背景均为中东地区冲突局势升级造成的 原油供给锐减，美联储放任通胀和坚定实施定量紧缩的两种截然不同决策 模式和相应收效或已为鲍威尔指明方向。1973 年 10 月以色列发动第四次 中东战争，OPEC 决定联合实施较为严格的石油出口禁运，第一次石油危 机爆发。本轮油价飙升首先传导至美国的工业品出厂价格，并逐步向 CPI 和核心 CPI 传导，至 1974 年 11 月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in gold prices in 2023, from 620 CNY per gram to a peak of 836 CNY per gram, has sparked a nationwide investment trend in gold, reminiscent of the "golden aunt" phenomenon in 2013, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [2] Historical Context of Gold Price Surges First Phase (1970-1980) - Gold prices surged from 35 USD to 850 USD, marking a 2300% increase following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [4] - This phase led to global central banks adjusting their foreign exchange reserves, increasing gold purchases and challenging the dollar's dominance [5] - Gold production entered an expansion cycle, with countries like South Africa and Russia ramping up mining activities [5] - The oil crisis and high inflation positioned gold as a key asset against currency devaluation [5] - The Federal Reserve was compelled to adopt aggressive interest rate hikes, reaching 20%, to curb inflation, which ultimately ended the gold bull market but initiated the development of modern financial derivatives like gold futures [5] Second Phase (2008-2011) - Following the 2008 financial crisis, gold experienced a second bull market with a 166% increase [7] - The demand for gold as a safe haven led to the democratization of investment, exemplified by the rise of gold ETFs and regular central bank gold purchases [7] - The consumer market saw structural changes, with high gold prices driving a shift towards lightweight jewelry and innovations in gold leasing and collateral financing [7] Third Phase (2018-Present) - The current bull market, driven by geopolitical tensions and policy conflicts, has seen gold prices rise over 100% from 2018 to 2025 [9] - Increased market volatility and speculative trading in futures markets have been observed, with COMEX gold futures premiums reaching 60 USD per ounce and physical inventory surging by 18.6 million ounces in a month [9] - Competition from alternative assets has become more pronounced, with significant growth in platinum orders and a 30% increase in sales of K-gold and silver jewelry in China [9] - Fluctuations in monetary policy have led to a shift in the correlation between gold and U.S. equities, reflecting gold's dual role as a safe haven and a risk asset [9]