1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 1970s, during the two oil crises, the gold price increased nearly 20 - fold, rising from an average monthly price of $35 per ounce to a maximum of $675 per ounce. The gold price trends during the two oil crises had different rhythms and magnitudes of increase [3][8]. - In the short - term, the gold price has significantly corrected. This is mainly due to the high oil prices under the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the delay of interest - rate cut expectations, and liquidity tightening. In the long - term, the trend of de - globalization still exists, and it is expected that central banks will continue to purchase gold [3]. - Referring to the two oil crises, as oil prices remain high, the gold price will resume its upward trend. The central bank's gold purchases will dominate the rise of the gold price, and the valuation of the precious metals sector is at the lower level of the historical center, with a high safety margin [58][62][74]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Two Oil Crisis Reviews 3.1.1 First Oil Crisis (1973.10 - 1974.3) - **Oil Price**: After the outbreak of the Fourth Middle - East War in October 1973, the oil price rose from $3 per barrel to $13 per barrel. After the cancellation of the oil embargo on the US in March 1974, the oil price declined but stabilized at around $10 per barrel [8][9]. - **Inflation**: The rapid increase in oil prices led to double - digit CPI in the US in 1974, with a peak of 12.2% in November 1974 [10]. - **Economic Recession**: The US GDP growth rate started to decline in Q4 1973, turned negative in Q2 1974, and returned to positive growth five quarters later [11]. - **Gold Price**: In the early stage, the gold price fluctuated due to the strong US dollar index. From November 1973 to April 1974, it rose rapidly by 81%. After the oil price peaked in March 1974, the gold price briefly declined and then rose to a new high. From 1975 - 1976.8, due to economic recovery and the selling of gold by the IMF and the US Treasury, the gold price corrected by nearly 40% [17][19][22]. 3.1.2 Second Oil Crisis (1978 end - 1980 end) - **Oil Price**: Due to the Iranian Islamic Revolution and the Iran - Iraq War, the oil price rose from $13 per barrel to $43 per barrel, with an increase of about 180% in 1979 [29]. - **Inflation**: The inflation rate in the US accelerated, with the CPI year - on - year growth rate rising from 6.7% at the end of 1977 to 13.3% in April 1980 [29]. - **Economic Situation**: The US economy fell into stagflation again, with the GDP growth rate starting to decline in Q2 1979 [29]. - **Gold Price**: In 1979, due to the weak US dollar index, the gold price rose by 119%. In 1980, under the strong monetary tightening policy, the gold price first reached a peak and then corrected. After 1980, as the US gradually emerged from inflation, the gold price started a downward trend [27][30][33]. 3.2 Current Gold Price Analysis - **Oil Price Increase**: In late February 2026, due to the full - scale escalation of the US - Israel - Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the international oil price soared from $70 per barrel to over $110 per barrel, with an increase of nearly 50% [43]. - **Gold Price Decline**: The gold price did not rise but fell, mainly due to the strong US dollar, inflation concerns, and liquidity shocks. The gold price also moved in the same direction as the stock market, mainly affected by liquidity shocks [44][48][56]. 3.3 Future Outlook for Gold - **Resumption of Gold Price Increase**: Referring to the two oil crises, as long as the oil price remains high for a long time or has a second jump, forming a strong inflation expectation, and the macro - economy shows a decline in economic growth due to high oil prices, the gold price will resume its upward trend in a stagflation - like environment [61]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Since 2022, global central banks have accelerated their gold purchases. It is expected that central banks will continue to purchase gold, and the valuation of the precious metals sector is at the lower level of the historical center, with a high safety margin [62][73][74]. 3.4 Recommended Targets - The report recommends paying attention to Zijin Gold International, Chifeng Gold, Shan Gold International, Zhongjin Gold, Zhaojin Mining, Lingbao Gold, Shandong Gold, etc. [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, highlighting the complexities of the situation, including military actions, negotiation attempts, and market reactions to these developments [3][4][8]. Geopolitical Tensions - The US-Iran conflict is currently in a "fighting while negotiating" stalemate, with frequent signals for ceasefire and negotiations, but the information remains highly chaotic [3]. - Iran has shown unexpected resilience in its defense and counterattacks, while the US continues to increase military presence in the Middle East [3]. - The market is experiencing volatility due to these geopolitical risks, with oil prices surging since March, and expectations of interest rate hikes affecting various commodities [3]. Market Reactions - The article notes that since the onset of the conflict, oil prices have risen significantly, with expectations of inflation impacting the market dynamics for various commodities [3][9]. - There is a noted divergence in the performance of different asset classes, with precious metals and risk assets showing mixed trends, indicating market concerns about stagflation and recession [3][9]. Oil and Commodity Dynamics - The potential for a prolonged conflict could lead to significant disruptions in oil supply, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which could reduce oil exports from the Middle East by over 50% [7]. - The article emphasizes that the current rise in energy and chemical prices is driven not only by geopolitical factors but also by supply chain disruptions and production constraints [10]. Strategic Considerations - The article suggests that the US may face a dilemma in its military strategy, balancing between maintaining its global dominance and avoiding a prolonged conflict that could exacerbate inflation and complicate policy adjustments [8]. - The potential for a regional war is increasing, with April 6 being highlighted as a critical date that could influence the trajectory of the conflict [8]. Commodity Price Trends - The relationship between oil prices and other commodities, such as precious metals and base metals, is discussed, indicating that rising oil prices could suppress copper prices due to their interconnected market dynamics [9]. - The article also highlights the importance of monitoring the duration of the conflict, as prolonged tensions could lead to significant shifts in commodity pricing and market behavior [10]. Production and Supply Chain Impacts - The article outlines that the chemical sector may face challenges in returning to previous price levels due to ongoing logistical issues and supply chain disruptions caused by the conflict [10]. - It also notes that production profits in the chemical sector are expected to improve due to a balance in supply and demand, influenced by the ongoing geopolitical situation [10].

Market Overview - The Japanese stock market has shown a volatile trend, with the Nikkei 225 index remaining flat while the TOPIX index increased by 1.1%[3] - High oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have dampened investor sentiment, raising concerns about rising corporate costs and potential economic slowdown[3] - The Japanese yen is hovering around 160 yen per dollar, nearing historical intervention levels, which has become a focal point for investors[3] Historical Context - The first oil crisis (1973-1974) saw oil prices surge from $3 to $12 per barrel, a nearly 300% increase, severely impacting Japan's economy, which was heavily reliant on oil imports[4] - Inflation spiked dramatically, with the consumer price index rising from 4.5% in 1972 to 24.5% in 1974, while GDP growth plummeted from 8% to -1.23%[4] - The second oil crisis (1978-1979) resulted in oil prices rising from approximately $13 to over $35 per barrel, a 150% increase, but the impact on Japan's economy was less severe due to structural adjustments made after the first crisis[7] Economic Resilience - Post-first oil crisis, Japan reduced its oil dependency from 78% in 1973 to about 59% by 1980, diversifying its energy sources to include nuclear, natural gas, and renewables[8] - The implementation of the "Sunshine Project" in 1974 focused on renewable energy technology, leading to significant advancements in solar and hydrogen energy[6] - By the 1990s, Japan's solar technology had achieved industrial breakthroughs, capturing over 40% of the global market share in photovoltaics[8] Current Challenges - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, have raised concerns about Japan's energy security, with oil still accounting for nearly 40% of its energy consumption[14] - The government has initiated fuel subsidies to stabilize prices, setting a cap on gasoline prices at 184 yen per liter[13] - Japan's trade balance has been negatively affected, leading to significant trade deficits in the fiscal year 2022 due to rising energy costs[12] Market Outlook - The consensus for net profit growth among TOPIX constituents for FY2026 is projected at 13%, suggesting potential resilience in corporate earnings despite external pressures[18] - If WTI crude oil averages $100 per barrel in FY2026, Japanese companies could still achieve around 3% profit growth under unchanged conditions[18] - However, uncertainties remain regarding the impact of energy crises on market confidence and potential revaluation of the yen and interest rates[18]

Core Insights - The report analyzes the impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on global oil supply and prices, predicting a potential rise in Brent crude prices above $100 per barrel due to a supply reduction of nearly 20% [3][4][8] - Historical comparisons indicate that the current oil crisis resembles past events, particularly in terms of economic and monetary cycles, suggesting a potential for prolonged high oil prices or a rapid return to pre-crisis levels depending on geopolitical developments [17][18] - The report highlights the sectors that may benefit from the current crisis, including oil, precious metals, and defense, while also noting the potential for a shift in market focus towards more stable sectors like technology and consumer goods in the event of a price drop [23][27] Section Summaries Impact of the Closure of the Strait of Hormuz - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a significant reduction in oil supply, with predictions indicating a 20% decrease in oil and LNG supplies, and a 50% reduction in sulfur supply [3][4] - The Dallas Federal Reserve's model suggests that if the Strait remains closed for a quarter, WTI crude prices could rise to $98 per barrel, with a corresponding 2.9% decline in global GDP growth for Q2 2026 [8][11] Historical Comparisons - The report compares the current crisis to previous oil crises, noting that the economic environment prior to the current conflict is similar to that of the Kosovo War, characterized by fiscal expansion and demand recovery [17] - It discusses the potential outcomes of oil price movements post-crisis, indicating that if prices remain high for an extended period, inflation and demand could be adversely affected, while a quick price drop could lead to a return to previous economic trends [17][18] Sector Performance During Crises - Historical data shows that during past oil crises, sectors such as oil, precious metals, and defense typically outperform, while technology and consumer sectors may gain traction once the immediate crisis subsides [23][27] - The report emphasizes that no sector has consistently delivered absolute returns during bear markets following oil price spikes, indicating a complex relationship between oil prices and sector performance [23][27]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the ongoing US-Iran conflict on global oil prices and China's preparedness for potential oil crises, highlighting China's strategic oil reserves and alternative energy technologies as key factors in mitigating risks associated with oil dependency [3][5][10]. Group 1: Impact of US-Iran Conflict on Oil Prices - The conflict has escalated to target energy facilities, with significant attacks on oil infrastructure, leading to a surge in international oil prices, with Oman crude exceeding $160 per barrel [4][5]. - Analysts predict that continued destruction of Middle Eastern oil facilities could result in a loss of 40% of global oil production capacity, potentially triggering a third oil crisis [5][6]. Group 2: China's Preparedness for Oil Crises - Despite a high dependency on foreign oil (over 70%), China appears unaffected by the oil crisis due to extensive preparations made over the years [10][11]. - China's strategic oil reserve program, initiated in 2004, has evolved to include underground storage facilities, which are more secure and efficient than surface tanks [15][19][30]. Group 3: Underground Oil Storage Technology - China employs advanced underground storage techniques, utilizing water-sealed technology to prevent oil leakage and ensure safety [25][27]. - The country has also developed a network of underground salt cavern storage, which is cost-effective and allows for rapid oil reserve turnover [28][30]. Group 4: Coal-to-Oil Technology - China has developed coal-to-oil technology, which allows for the conversion of coal into high-quality synthetic fuels, providing an alternative to crude oil [40][48]. - The successful development of catalysts for this process has positioned China as a leader in coal-to-oil technology, enabling the production of clean fuels suitable for military and industrial use [46][49]. Group 5: Fertilizer Production and Food Security - China has advanced coal-based fertilizer production technologies, ensuring a stable supply of nitrogen fertilizers, which are critical for agriculture [56][62]. - This capability positions China to maintain food security and potentially control global fertilizer supply during oil crises, impacting global food production significantly [64][66]. Group 6: Diversified Oil Import Sources - China has diversified its oil import sources, limiting any single country's contribution to 15-20% of total imports, thereby reducing vulnerability to supply disruptions [82][86]. - The country has established energy cooperation projects with multiple oil-producing nations, ensuring a stable supply chain even during geopolitical tensions [89][91]. Group 7: Domestic Oil Production and New Energy - China maintains a domestic oil production level of over 200 million tons annually, which can sustain essential services even if global oil trade ceases [97][98]. - The development of shale oil technology and a shift towards renewable energy sources further reduce China's reliance on imported oil, positioning it for energy independence [100][102]. Group 8: Economic Implications of Oil Price Increases - While the oil crisis may lead to increased costs for consumers, China's industrial base is less likely to suffer catastrophic disruptions compared to smaller nations [120][124]. - The crisis may accelerate the transition to electric vehicles, further decreasing oil demand and enhancing China's energy autonomy [108][113].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing escalation of tensions in the Middle East is significantly impacting global oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude oil futures rising over 2% due to geopolitical developments, particularly involving Israel and Iran [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - As of March 27, WTI crude oil futures increased by 2.54% to $96.88 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures rose by 2.11% to $104.3 per barrel [2]. - The rise in oil prices is attributed to Israel's Defense Minister announcing an escalation in military actions against Iran, which has led to increased fears of supply disruptions [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - Israel's Defense Minister Katz stated that the Israeli military will expand its operations against Iran, targeting more areas and objectives due to ongoing missile attacks from Iran [2]. - Reports indicate that 26 individuals were killed in an attack on a residential area in Isfahan, Iran, highlighting the human cost of the conflict [2]. Group 3: Impact on Global Oil Supply - JPMorgan has warned that the disruption of oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz due to the conflict will lead to a "chain reaction" affecting global oil supply, with impacts expected to spread from Asia to the U.S. by April [6][7]. - The bank's analysts noted that the global oil system is shifting from supply shocks to inventory depletion issues, with the timing of these impacts being critical [7]. Group 4: Regional Oil Demand Projections - JPMorgan projects that oil demand in Southeast Asia could decrease by approximately 300,000 barrels per day in April, with potential declines exceeding 2 million barrels per day by May and approaching 3 million barrels per day by June if domestic inventories are limited [8]. - The Philippines has declared a national energy emergency due to the imminent threat to energy supplies from the Middle East conflict [8].

Core Viewpoint - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has significant implications for global oil supply and prices, leading to increased oil prices and market volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Market Impact - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening severe repercussions for any attempts to navigate through it [1]. - Any vessels traveling to or from ports associated with "U.S. and Israeli hostile forces" are prohibited from passage, further escalating tensions in the region [2]. - Following these developments, Brent crude oil prices rose by 1.3% to $103 per barrel, while WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.6% to $96 per barrel [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Major European stock indices opened higher but subsequently declined, with the Euro Stoxx 50 and Germany's DAX index both falling over 1%, and France's CAC40 down by 0.81% [5]. - U.S. stock futures also reversed from gains to losses, with the Nasdaq futures dropping from a 0.76% increase to a 0.26% decrease [5]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - Analysts at JPMorgan predict that the conflict between the U.S. and Iran will disrupt oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a shift from supply shocks to inventory depletion globally, starting from Asia and affecting Africa, Europe, and eventually the U.S. by April [8]. - The cryptocurrency market experienced a downturn, with Bitcoin falling by 3.45% to $66,700 per ounce, and Ethereum dropping by 3.82% [8]. - Over the past 24 hours, more than 120,000 traders faced liquidation, totaling approximately $447 million in losses across the market [10].

Group 1: Historical Oil Crises - Five oil crises since 1970 were triggered by geopolitical conflicts, including the 1973 Yom Kippur War, 1978 Iranian Revolution, 1990 Gulf War, 2003 Iraq War, and 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict[8] - The first oil crisis saw Brent crude prices rise by 381.5% from $2.7 to $13 per barrel over four months[9] - The second crisis resulted in a 218.2% increase in oil prices, from $13.2 to $42 per barrel over approximately one year[9] Group 2: Oil Price Dynamics - Geopolitical crises typically cause short-term oil price spikes lasting 3-5 months, followed by a higher price equilibrium[12] - The price increase after the first two crises was substantial, with average price levels rising by 387.8% and 197.8% respectively, while the last three crises saw increases of only 19%-27%[15] - Oil price shocks often lead to "stagflation," characterized by rising prices and slowing economic growth, as seen in four out of five crises[16] Group 3: Asset Performance During Crises - Stock markets generally face pressure during oil price spikes, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experiencing declines of 14.7% and 25.8% respectively during the 1990 crisis[29] - Bond markets exhibit a tug-of-war between recession fears and inflation expectations, with 10-year Treasury yields falling by 34.7 basis points during the 1973 crisis[30] - Commodity markets show varied responses, with natural gas prices rising significantly during crises, while agricultural products like soybeans often decline due to demand pressures[31][40] Group 4: Current Outlook - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in Iran may lead to further oil price spikes, with the duration of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz being a critical factor[43] - Stock markets are expected to remain under pressure in the short term, particularly during periods of rising oil prices[43] - The performance of long-term U.S. Treasuries is likely to be influenced by inflation expectations, while short-term bonds will fluctuate with Federal Reserve policy changes[43]

Group 1: Oil Crisis Historical Review and Investment Insights - The oil crisis typically begins with geopolitical conflicts and escalates due to expectations of supply disruptions, leading to short-term price spikes and long-term price increases [1][12] - The macroeconomic impact of oil crises has historically led to inflation followed by stagnation or similar conditions, with the 1970s crisis resulting in recession and stagflation in the US, while the 2022 situation only saw a technical recession [1][12] - Market narratives have evolved, reflecting learning effects from past crises, with shifts from valuation model failures to asset worship and supply-side reforms [1][12] - Asset performance during crises shows that commodities like oil benefit directly, while equities face valuation pressures, and bonds initially decline before rising due to inflation expectations [1][12] Group 2: Logistics and Transportation Sector - The daily traffic volume at Ganqimaodu Port has shown a steady recovery, with an average of 1,351 vehicles per day from March 16 to March 22, 2026, marking a 55.7% year-on-year increase [5][17] - The port's cargo throughput has also increased significantly, with a 35% year-on-year growth to 10.24 million tons as of March 15, 2026 [5][17] - Short-distance freight rates have stabilized and increased, averaging 65 RMB per ton in 2026, reflecting an 8.3% year-on-year rise [6][17] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Jiayou International reported a revenue of 2.486 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a 30.61% year-on-year increase, driven by the recovery of cross-border business and rising prices of coking coal [7][18] - The company is expected to benefit from the integration of mining services, logistics, customs clearance, and coal sales, enhancing its competitive advantage in the cross-border logistics market [7][18] - Northern International is projected to benefit from rising coking coal and European natural gas prices, with a target price of 18 RMB based on a 24x PE ratio for 2026 [31][32] Group 4: Social Services Sector - The social services sector is experiencing a policy-driven boost in consumer spending, particularly in travel and hospitality, with recommendations for various hotel and tourism companies [19][20] - The education sector is also seeing robust demand, with significant expansion opportunities in high school education and vocational training [20][23] - Traditional retail is undergoing transformation, with new consumption patterns emerging and companies adapting to changing market dynamics [20][23]

Historical Review - The oil crisis typically begins with geopolitical conflicts and escalates due to anticipated disruptions in oil supply, driven by factors such as production cuts, embargoes, and sanctions, resulting in short-term price spikes and a long-term upward shift in price levels [2] - The macroeconomic impact often leads to inflation followed by stagnation or stagflation; the 1970s oil crisis and the Russia-Ukraine conflict both caused inflationary pressures in the U.S., but the economy in the 1970s fell into recession and stagflation, while in 2022, only a technical recession occurred, remaining at a level of real inflation [2] - Market narratives have evolved, reflecting a learning effect; the crises of the 1970s shifted from valuation model failures and wage-inflation spirals to a focus on real assets and supply-side reforms, while 2022 centered around Federal Reserve tightening policies and energy transitions [2] - Asset performance during crises shows that commodities like oil benefit directly, while gold reflects pre-war risk aversion and post-war trends depend on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields; equities face valuation pressures, particularly in growth sectors, while bonds initially decline due to risk aversion but may rise with inflation expectations [2] Comparison of Past and Present - Similarities include the current position of the U.S. inflation cycle and concerns about debt vulnerabilities extending to developed economies like Japan [3] - Differences lie in the foundation of global economic growth, with current inflation levels at historical lows, central bank policies focusing more on price stability, and reduced reliance on oil due to improved energy efficiency [3] - These similarities and differences reshape current asset pricing logic, with global central banks having more mature tools to control inflation, though the risk of stagflation remains a concern [3] Lessons from History - The uncertainty surrounding the prospects of U.S.-Iran-Israel conflicts has led to a significant rise in oil prices, with a strong consensus on inflation but divided opinions on stagnation; asset price volatility has increased due to the unpredictable nature of conflicts and policy paths [4] - Since the conflict began in late February, asset performance has aligned closely with historical patterns, favoring oil, energy stocks, and defensive assets, indicating high market risk aversion and a shift in trading logic from "secondary inflation" to "stagflation" expectations [4] - Future investment strategies should focus on areas with stronger certainty, including strategic security in energy and supply chains, technology sectors aligned with future industry trends, and gold as a long-term beneficiary of weakened dollar credibility [4]