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社零数据点评:1-2月社零同比+4%,服务消费市场稳健增长
CMS· 2025-03-18 02:41
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance exceeding the benchmark index [3]. Core Insights - The social retail sales total for January-February 2025 reached 83,731 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4%. The service consumption market is showing stable growth, particularly in dining and travel services, while e-commerce is recovering faster than the overall retail market [1][2][4]. - The report highlights the impact of the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" policy, which is expected to drive positive trends in service consumption and the retail industry [1][2]. - In terms of category performance, essential goods such as grain, oil, and food saw a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, while discretionary categories like cosmetics and clothing showed improvements with growth rates of 3.3% and 4.4%, respectively [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Scale - The industry comprises 132 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 1,158 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 1,055.2 billion yuan [3]. Industry Index Performance - The absolute performance of the industry index over the past month is -10.8%, with a 6-month performance of 44.2% and a 12-month performance of 11.1%. Relative performance shows a decline of -7.9% over the past month, but a positive 35.6% over 6 months [4]. Retail Sales Breakdown - In January-February, the retail sales of essential goods grew by 11.5% for grain and oil, and 5.5% for daily necessities. The retail sales of household appliances increased by 10.9%, while the telecommunications equipment category, driven by new government subsidies for mobile phones, surged by 26.2% [2][19].