提高人民生活品质。自2024年9月政策全面实施以来，已累计发放直达消费者的补贴超4.8亿份，一大批 绿色、低碳、智能的新产品进入百姓生活。2025年，每卖出两辆家用新车，就有一辆享受了汽车以旧换 新补贴。 繁荣线下实体商业。更多消费者选择到店体验购物并享受补贴，联动产生休闲娱乐、餐饮等跨场景消 费。相关机构数据显示，家电以旧换新线下门店较为集聚的商圈，周边1公里范围内相关商户消费额增 长超30%。 （文章来源：经济日报） 牵引产业提质升级。汽车以旧换新中，新能源汽车占比近60%，带动新能源乘用车零售市场份额连续9 个月超过50%，其中11月份达59.4%。家电以旧换新中，一级能效（水效）产品占比超90%。通讯器材 类商品销售额连续11个月保持增长。 促进经济绿色转型。2025年，报废汽车回收量增长24.5%，实现循环利用钢材约960万吨、铜铝锂等有 色金属约130万吨，减少碳排放约2450万吨。 本报北京1月2日讯（记者冯其予）商务部发布的最新数据显示，2025年，以旧换新相关商品销售额超 2.6万亿元，惠及超3.6亿人次。其中，汽车以旧换新超1150万辆，家电以旧换新超1.29亿件，手机等数 码产品购新超9 ...

转自：京报网_北京日报官方网站 #2025以旧换新惠及超3.6亿人次#【#2025以旧换新商品销售额超2.6万亿元#】#2025电动自行车以旧换新 超1250万辆#2025年以来，商务部与各地区、各相关部门一道，深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部 署，扎实有序推进实施消费品以旧换新政策，取得显著成效。2025年，以旧换新相关商品销售额超2.6 万亿元，惠及超3.6亿人次。其中，汽车以旧换新超1150万辆，家电以旧换新超1.29亿件，手机等数码产 品购新超9100万部，家装厨卫"焕新"超1.2亿件，电动自行车以旧换新超1250万辆。具体看：一是支撑 消费持续扩大。1—11月，社会消费品零售总额同比（下同）增长4.0%，较上年同期加快0.5个百分点， 以旧换新带动社零总额增长超1个百分点；家电零售额已超2024年全年，突破万亿元大关并创历史新 高。二是牵引产业提质升级。汽车以旧换新中，新能源汽车占比近60%，带动新能源乘用车零售市场份 额连续9个月超过50%，其中11月份达59.4%。家电以旧换新中，一级能效（水效）产品占比超90%。通 讯器材类商品销售额连续11个月保持增长。三是促进经济绿色转型。2025年，报废 ...

转自：北京日报客户端 四是提高人民生活品质。自2024年9月政策全面实施以来，已累计发放直达消费者的补贴超4.8亿份，一 大批绿色、低碳、智能的新产品进入百姓生活。2025年，每卖出两辆家用新车，就有一辆享受了汽车以 旧换新补贴。老旧电动自行车淘汰更新量超过2024年的9倍，换新的电动自行车均具备符合现行国家标 准的产品合格证和CCC证书，安全性更好的铅酸电池车辆占比约90%。 五是繁荣线下实体商业。更多消费者选择到店体验购物并享受补贴，联动产生休闲娱乐、餐饮等跨场景 消费。相关机构数据显示，家电以旧换新线下门店较为集聚的商圈，周边1公里范围内相关商户消费额 增长超30%。 来源：商务部 一是支撑消费持续扩大。1—11月，社会消费品零售总额同比（下同）增长4.0%，较上年同期加快0.5个 百分点，以旧换新带动社零总额增长超1个百分点；家电零售额已超2024年全年，突破万亿元大关并创 历史新高。 二是牵引产业提质升级。汽车以旧换新中，新能源汽车占比近60%，带动新能源乘用车零售市场份额连 续9个月超过50%，其中11月份达59.4%。家电以旧换新中，一级能效（水效）产品占比超90%。通讯器 材类商品销售额连续1 ...

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation in Qinghai Province is stable and progressing steadily as of November 2023, with efforts focused on high-quality development [1] Industrial Production - The industrial added value above designated size increased by 7.1% year-on-year from January to November, with a 0.2 percentage point increase compared to the previous period [2] - The manufacturing sector showed significant contributions, with a 10.4% increase in added value, driving a 6.4 percentage point growth in industrial added value [2] - Key industries performed well, with 18 out of 35 industrial categories experiencing growth, resulting in a growth rate of 51.4% [2] - Notable growth in specific sectors includes non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing at 23.5%, and chemical raw materials and products manufacturing at 8.8% [2] - Major product outputs saw rapid increases, including lithium iron phosphate (74.9%), lithium-ion batteries (46.0%), and carbonates (22.1%) [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 9.6% year-on-year, but the decline rate narrowed by 2.1 percentage points compared to the previous period [3] - High-tech service industry investment grew by 20.2%, with a notable increase in information transmission and IT services at 52.4% [3] - Industrial technological transformation project investments surged by 23.7%, reflecting a 10.0 percentage point increase from the previous period [3] - Infrastructure investment, accounting for 33.8% of total fixed asset investment, grew by 19.4%, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous period [3] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 948.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [4] - Among 19 categories of goods, 12 categories experienced retail sales growth, including hardware and electrical materials (44.3%) and household appliances (21.8%) [4] - Other categories with notable growth include beverages (21.0%), books and magazines (14.4%), and construction materials (10.3%) [4]

天眼查App显示，近日，成都捷嘉全通讯器材有限公司成立，法定代表人为王小铭，注册资本3万人民 币，经营范围为一般项目：通讯设备销售；计算机及通讯设备租赁；信息技术咨询服务；软件开发；技 术服务、技术开发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广；机械设备租赁；机械设备销售；环保 咨询服务；家用电器销售；办公设备销售；五金产品批发；电子产品销售；服装服饰批发；服装服饰零 售；销售代理。（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）许可项目：第二类增 值电信业务；第一类增值电信业务。（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批准后方可开展经营活动，具 体经营项目以相关部门批准文件或许可证件为准）。 ...

Economic Growth Overview - In November 2025, China's industrial added value grew by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The service production index increased by 4.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to October[3] - Retail sales of consumer goods rose by 1.3% year-on-year, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[3] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing added value increased by 8.4%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate by 3.6 percentage points[3] - The export delivery value showed a marginal recovery, with a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, improving by 2.0 percentage points from October[3] - The service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November, with a 0.1 percentage point increase compared to the previous month[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, a drop of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Infrastructure and manufacturing investments maintained expansion, with cumulative year-on-year growth rates of 0.1% and 1.9%, respectively[3] - Equipment purchase investment rose by 12.2% year-on-year, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall investment growth[3] Risks and Outlook - Risks include potential underperformance of growth stabilization policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalation of geopolitical conflicts[3]

Group 1: Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply-demand gap for the midstream sector improved, with the demand-investment growth rate difference rising to 7.6% in November from 6.4% in October[1] - Midstream demand growth was 8.9% in November, down from 9.3% in October, while midstream investment growth fell to 1.3%[3] - The demand-investment growth rate difference for midstream has been increasing since May 2024 and turned positive in March 2025[3] Group 2: Future Projections - Historical data suggests that the midstream demand-investment growth rate difference is likely to remain positive, indicating potential price stabilization in the next two years[2] - The midstream PPI (Producer Price Index) is expected to stop declining and start rising, with a notable month-on-month increase of 0.04% in November, the first positive change since June 2024[4] - If the midstream PPI stabilizes, the year-on-year PPI is likely to continue rising, positively impacting midstream ROE (Return on Equity)[4] Group 3: Economic Data Overview - November's industrial value-added growth rate was 4.8%, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.44%[20] - Retail sales growth in November was 1.3%, down from 2.9% in October, indicating weak consumer demand[22] - Real estate sales area decreased by 17.3% year-on-year in November, showing ongoing challenges in the property market[27]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 1 、分析方法：以需求增速与投资增速的差值衡量供需矛盾，核心逻辑是若需求增速持续超过投资增速，随 着产能逐渐折旧退出，供需之间的相对关系，有望从"供强需弱"转为"供弱需强"。 2 、指标构建：关键在于需求。将社零、出口、固投与行业层面的上游、中游、下游进行匹配，得到上、 中、下游的需求与投资增速差。 3 、当前现象： 11 月，对于中游，需求与投资增速差进一步上行至 7.6% ，前值为 6.4% ，这一差值自 2024 年 5 月开始持续上行，自 2025 年 3 月开始增速差转正。而上游与下游，观察到截至 10 月的情况， 增速差均尚未超过 0 。 4 、未来推演：从历史数据来看，中游需求与投资增速差持续回升，且增速差能回升至 0 以上，有希望看 到在未来 2 年的时间段内的某个时点，中游 PPI 定基指数止跌回升（即，价格止跌）。我们预计， 2026 年很有可能看到中游 PPI 定基指数持续止跌上行。 事实上，从 2025 年 11 月的数据来看，中游 PPI 环比 出现了久违的环比转正（ 2024 年 6 月 ...

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 宏观经济 2025年12月15日 宏观国债研究员：刘洋 从业资格证号： F3063825 交易咨询证号： Z0016580 联系方式： liuyang18036@greend h.com 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2025年12月15日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 11月消费投资低于预期 摘要 11月固定资产投资增速和社零增长均低于市场预期。11出口增速 超市场预期。11月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长低于市场预期， 11月服务业生产指数同比增速较10月回落0.4个百分点。11月国内房 地产销量同比和房价继续下行，12月上旬的数据也表现如此。截至今 年10月底，5000亿元新型政策性金融工具已全部完成投放，11月的 投资数据未表现出明显改观。中美在10月末元首会晤之后，不断拉长 合作清单、压缩问题清单，相对稳定的国际环境有利于中国出口。出 口信心稳定则有利民间投资增长。 1-11月份，全国固定资产投资同比下降2.6%，市场预期下降2.2 %，1-10月份为同比下降1.7%。分类来看，1-11月份广义基建投 ...

Economic Overview - In November, the national economy continued to show a stable and progressive development trend, with a focus on implementing proactive macro policies and promoting high-quality development [2][6] - The total grain production for the year is expected to exceed 1.4 trillion jin, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [2] Industrial Production - The industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.8% year-on-year in November, with a month-on-month increase of 0.44% [3] - The equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry saw significant growth, with increases of 7.7% and 8.4% respectively [3] - The production of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles grew by 100.5%, 20.6%, and 17.0% year-on-year respectively [3] Retail Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [4] - Online retail sales amounted to 144,582 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, and physical goods online retail sales accounted for 25.9% of total retail sales [4] - Service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in cultural, sports, and travel services [4] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, while manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% [5] - Infrastructure investment fell by 1.1%, and real estate development investment dropped by 15.9% [5] - Investment in high-tech industries, such as information services and aerospace manufacturing, saw significant increases of 29.6% and 19.7% respectively [5] Policy Impact - A series of proactive macro policies have effectively supported stable economic operations, leading to expanded consumer demand and increased key investments [7][8] - The implementation of consumption upgrade policies has resulted in significant sales growth in home appliances and communication equipment [8] - The industrial production growth was supported by policies promoting market demand and industrial upgrades [8] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking a continuous recovery trend [9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, indicating a narrowing decline trend since August [10][11] Long-term Economic Outlook - The resilience of the economy remains strong, with macro policies providing robust support and new growth drivers emerging [12][13] - The expansion of market demand and the continuous growth of new economic drivers are expected to positively impact economic development [12][14] - The upcoming economic policies aim to enhance domestic demand and optimize supply, ensuring a solid foundation for future growth [14]