今年以来，我国消费市场在政策支持和内生动力的共同作用下呈现出"总体平稳、结构优化"的发展态势。 据国家统计局数据，7月社会消费品零售总额3.88万亿元，同比增长3.7%，增速比去年同期高1个百分点。1-7月，社会消费品零售总额28.42万亿元，同比增 长4.8%，服务零售额同比增长5.2%，商品和服务零售合并同比增长5%左右。 7月整体消费增速环比有所放缓，但政策驱动型消费却表现强劲。商务部表示，7月份限额以上单位家电、家具、通讯器材、文化办公用品零售额同比分别增 长28.7%、20.6%、14.9%和13.8%。受访专家认为，这种分化显示当前消费增长动力正在向政策引导、结构性托举型转变的深层逻辑。 8月22日召开的国务院常务会议提出，大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策，在稳投资、扩消费、促转型、惠民生等方面取得明显成效，要进一步强化财 税金融等政策支持。 | 指标 | 当期値 | | --- | --- | | 家用电器和音像器材类 | 978 | | 家具类 | 170 | | 通讯器材类 | 657 | 今年以来，以旧换新政策持续发力，涉及产品越来越多。在政策带动下，消费活力持续释放，效果显著。国家统计 ...

今年以来，我国消费市场在政策支持和内生动力的共同作用下呈现出"总体平稳、结构优化"的发展态势。 据国家统计局数据，7月社会消费品零售总额3.88万亿元，同比增长3.7%，增速比去年同期高1个百分点。1-7月，社会消费品零售总额28.42万亿元，同比增 长4.8%，服务零售额同比增长5.2%，商品和服务零售合并同比增长5%左右。 7月整体消费增速环比有所放缓，但政策驱动型消费却表现强劲。商务部表示，7月份限额以上单位家电、家具、通讯器材、文化办公用品零售额同比分别增 长28.7%、20.6%、14.9%和13.8%。受访专家认为，这种分化显示当前消费增长动力正在向政策引导、结构性托举型转变的深层逻辑。 8月22日召开的国务院常务会议提出，大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策，在稳投资、扩消费、促转型、惠民生等方面取得明显成效，要进一步强化财 税金融等政策支持。 在汽车消费方面，新能源车表现亮眼。据中国汽车流通协会乘联会数据，7月份乘用车零售量同比增长6.3%，其中新能源乘用车零售量增长12.0%，渗透率 达54%。 今年前七月，全国乘用车市场累计零售1272.8万辆，同比增长10.1%，其中7月乘用车零售182. ...

● 本报记者 连润 王舒嫄 近日召开的国务院常务会议和全国消费品以旧换新工作推进电视电话会议对下阶段消费品以旧换新作出 部署，释放出政策支持加力信号。 专家表示，从当前各地对以旧换新政策优化调整的路径看，后续以旧换新政策有可能在上调资金支持规 模、扩大品类范围等方面发力，同时将进一步强化政策协同与技术赋能，确保政策红利直达消费者，有 效扩大内需、提振消费。 政策效果明显 今年以来，以旧换新政策持续发力，范围有所扩大，涉及产品越来越多。在政策带动下，传统消费领域 和智能消费领域活力持续释放，政策效果显著。 最新数据显示，7月，限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类和通讯器材类商 品零售额同比分别增长了28.7%、13.8%、20.6%、14.9%，均明显快于商品零售额增速，继续支撑商品 销售增长。 以旧换新政策同样惠及汽车行业。最新发布的增值税发票数据显示，2024年4月至2025年7月，全国新能 源车销量同比增长81.7%，增长势头迅猛。 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示："消费品以旧换新政策加力扩围，对相关商品销售带动作用继续显 现。" 支持力度料加码 从中央层面看，加力支持以旧换新的政策信 ...

服务业发展势头良好，数字经济引领增长。1—6月，全市规模以上服务业营业收入10944亿元，同比增 长8.6%，增速较1—5月加快0.6个百分点。其中，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业增长12.7%，科学研 究和技术服务业增长6.2%，增速均有所提升。数字经济核心产业服务业、高技术服务业营业收入分别 增长12.6%和11.8%，成为服务业增长的重要引擎。这表明杭州在打造数字经济第一城方面持续发力， 数字技术创新与产业升级相互促进的发展格局进一步巩固。 杭州市统计局日前发布全市1—7月经济运行情况，数据展示了杭州经济强劲的脉搏——消费政策稳步推 进需求回升，消费市场继续恢复，出口突围验证开放路径有效，工业稳健支撑基本面，新质生产力的迅 速起势更预示着未来转型的动能所在，呈现出既稳得住、又迸发新活力的特点。 消费市场持续回暖，升级类消费表现亮眼。1—7月，全市社会消费品零售总额5271亿元，同比增长 5.1%。在"以旧换新"等促消费政策带动下，家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类商品零售额分别增长 86.3%和34.5%，新能源汽车零售额增长23.7%，显示绿色消费、智能消费成为新趋势。升级类消费需求 旺盛，体育娱乐用品 ...

Economic Growth - The main economic indicators in Gansu Province have shown steady growth in the first seven months of the year, with overall economic operation remaining stable [1][2] - The industrial production has increased significantly, with the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size growing by 9.5% year-on-year [1] Industrial Performance - The mining industry saw a value increase of 4.1%, while the manufacturing sector grew by 12.2%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry increased by 10.2% [1] - Out of 37 major industry categories, 25 reported growth in production activities [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in the province grew by 0.8% year-on-year, with a notable increase of 4.4% when excluding real estate development investments [1] - Infrastructure investment rose by 7.4%, and manufacturing investment increased by 10.0%, while real estate development investment declined by 14.2% [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 2500.8 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [2] - The "old for new" policy has positively impacted retail sales in categories such as home appliances (54.3% growth), communication equipment (37.0% growth), and furniture (20.8% growth) [2] Foreign Trade - The total import and export value reached 394.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.4% [2] - Exports grew by 33.2% to 95.5 billion yuan, while imports increased by 21.9% to 299.1 billion yuan [2] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative accounted for 74.4% of total trade, with a growth of 21.0% [2] Fiscal and Financial Stability - The general public budget revenue was 658.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, while expenditures increased by 5.3% to 2848.6 billion yuan [2] - By the end of July, the balance of deposits in financial institutions reached 30383.8 billion yuan, growing by 8.1%, and the loan balance was 29981.5 billion yuan, up by 4.3% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the stock index futures continued to fluctuate upwards, but market differentiation intensified, showing the characteristic of "strong index, weak stocks". The core contradiction lies in the game between policy expectations and economic reality. The market presents a game feature of "policy support" and "fundamental pressure", and it is necessary to focus on the matching degree between policy implementation efficiency and marginal improvement of economic data. Maintain optimism in the medium - long term, but be vigilant against short - term fluctuations caused by repeated expectations of peripheral liquidity [31] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On August 15, the three major A - share indexes continued their strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.60%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.61%. Most industry sectors rose, with only the banking sector falling. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2 trillion for three consecutive days, with a turnover of more than 2.2 trillion on that day, slightly lower than the previous trading day [1] - Last week, treasury bond futures rose collectively. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures had respective price changes of - 1.48%, - 0.29%, - 0.15%, and - 0.02% [2] - Last week, the domestic stock index futures market strengthened collectively. The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures had weekly increases of 3.09%, 2.19%, 4.88%, and 5.21% respectively [7] Fundamental Analysis - In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and by 0.38% month - on - month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year [8] - From January to July, the national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%. Residential investment was 412.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.9%. Various indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and completion area all declined [8] - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to July, it was 28.4238 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. The central bank will focus on the supply - side to promote consumption [9] - Last week, the central bank conducted 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and had 1126.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, with a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan. It also carried out 500 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operations. This week, there will be 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities and 22 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit maturities [10] Valuation Analysis - As of August 15, the PE, percentile, and PB of the CSI 300 Index were 13.42 times, 74.12%, and 1.42 times respectively; those of the SSE 50 Index were 11.55 times, 86.08%, and 1.28 times respectively; those of the CSI 500 Index were 30.95 times, 74.12%, and 2.09 times respectively; those of the CSI 1000 Index were 42.88 times, 69.8%, and 2.38 times respectively [14] - The stock - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield, with two calculation formulas provided [26] China - Buffett Indicator - On August 14, 2025, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 81.59%. The percentile of the current "total market capitalization/GDP" in historical data was 78.56%, and in the last 10 - year data was 78.99% [29] Comprehensive Analysis - The consumer recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, but there are structural highlights in consumption. Industrial production is stable, and high - tech manufacturing continues to lead. Policy - wise, the loose tone of monetary policy remains unchanged, but the rebound of US PPI may restrict the inflow of foreign capital. Domestic fiscal policy is still being implemented, and the impact of special treasury bonds on infrastructure may appear in the third quarter. The market volatility remains low, and investors expect limited short - term breakthroughs [31] Operation Recommendations - Unilateral: Control risks, buy on dips, and avoid chasing highs [32] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [33] - Options: Consider the covered call strategy to increase returns [34]

Economic Overview - In July, major economic indicators maintained overall stability, with new growth drivers emerging, supporting steady economic development despite existing risks and challenges [1] - The macroeconomic policies are showing effectiveness, leading to expanded market demand and enhanced market vitality [1] New Quality Productivity - The added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 9.3% year-on-year in July, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.6 percentage points [2] - The digital economy is rapidly developing, with the added value of digital product manufacturing increasing by 8.4% year-on-year in July [2] - Production of green low-carbon products is also on the rise, with new energy vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and wind turbine generators seeing production increases of 17.1%, 29.4%, and 19.3% respectively [2] Foreign Trade - In July, the total value of goods imports and exports grew by 6.7% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 8% and imports by 4.8% [3] - The diversification of trade is evident, with exports to ASEAN, the EU, and Belt and Road countries growing by 14.8%, 8.2%, and 11.7% respectively from January to July [3] - The export of integrated circuits surged by 21.8%, reflecting enhanced international competitiveness due to improved R&D capabilities [3] Consumption - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year in July, with service retail sales growing by 5.2% from January to July [4] - The "old-for-new" policy has positively impacted sales, with significant growth in retail sales of home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment [4] - Tourism and leisure-related consumption saw rapid growth during the summer, with double-digit increases in retail sales for travel services and recreational activities [5] Investment - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.6% year-on-year from January to July, with actual growth (adjusted for price factors) estimated between 4% and 5% [6] - Manufacturing investment rose by 6.2%, significantly outpacing overall investment growth [6] - Investment in high-tech industries, particularly in aerospace and information services, saw substantial increases of 33.9% and 32.8% respectively [6] Price Trends - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed positive changes, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [7] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a strengthening market demand [7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month decline of 0.2%, but the rate of decline has narrowed, marking the first reduction in the decline since March [7]

Economic Overview - The national economy shows a steady development trend, requiring continued macro policy support to effectively release domestic demand potential and promote a stable and healthy economic development [1][2] - In July, exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 5.9%, while social retail sales grew by 3.7%, lower than June's 4.8% and May's 6.4% [1] Consumption and Retail - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.0% year-on-year in July, down from 5.3% previously, with significant growth in home appliances (28.7%), furniture (20.6%), communication equipment (14.9%), and cultural office supplies (13.8%) [1] - The restaurant sector showed weak performance, with growth of only 1.1% in July compared to 5.9% in May [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year from January to July, a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, with manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments all showing a slowdown [1] - Manufacturing investment has decreased, while infrastructure projects, particularly "two heavy" projects, are expected to gain momentum in the second half of the year [1][3] Industrial Production - In July, the industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6.8% previously, influenced by slowing investment and consumption growth [2] - Producer prices for industrial products fell by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6% [2] Policy Measures - Starting in August, measures to expand consumption include the introduction of childcare subsidies and the exemption of fees for public kindergarten education for certain age groups [3] - The government is also encouraging service consumption through fiscal interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and service industry loans [3] Challenges and Outlook - The real estate sector and local infrastructure investment present ongoing challenges, requiring time to address accumulated issues [3] - Short-term factors such as extreme weather and adjustments in consumption subsidies have impacted July's economic data, but upcoming macroeconomic policies are expected to promote effective investment and release domestic demand potential [3]

Economic Performance - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year, while the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year [1] - From January to July, fixed asset investment rose by 1.6% year-on-year, indicating a steady economic development despite external and domestic challenges [1] Consumption Trends - The retail sales of consumer goods and services showed a combined growth of approximately 5% from January to July, reflecting a sustained expansion in consumption [1] - The sales of home appliances, cultural office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment saw significant year-on-year increases of 28.7%, 13.8%, 20.6%, and 14.9% respectively in July, driven by consumption promotion policies [1][2] Service Sector Growth - The service retail sector experienced rapid growth, particularly in cultural and tourism-related services, supported by increased consumer demand during the summer [2] - New consumption models such as online retail and live-streaming sales are gaining popularity, contributing to the emergence of new growth points in consumption [2][3] Industrial Production - In July, 35 out of 41 major industrial sectors reported year-on-year growth, with a growth coverage of 85.4%, indicating overall stability in industrial production [2] - High-tech manufacturing added value increased by 9.3% year-on-year, with significant growth in the production of green products such as new energy vehicles and lithium batteries [3] Economic Outlook - The economic foundation remains strong with significant potential for growth, supported by proactive macroeconomic policies and expanding market demand [3][4] - Upcoming policies aimed at stabilizing economic growth are expected to accelerate project funding and boost local infrastructure investment [4]

Economic Performance - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.38%[4] - The manufacturing sector's added value grew by 6.2%, indicating its core support role in the economy[4] - Fixed asset investment from January to July rose by 1.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.63% in July[4] Sector Analysis - 35 out of 41 industrial categories reported growth, achieving a growth coverage of 85.4%[4] - High-tech manufacturing saw a significant increase, with added value growing by 9.3%, led by integrated circuit manufacturing at 26.9%[4] - Real estate development investment from January to July was 53,580 billion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, marking a historical low[4] Consumer Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in July reached 38.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%[5] - Durable goods consumption, particularly in home appliances (+28.7%) and communication equipment (+14.9%), showed strong growth[5] - Service retail sales from January to July increased by 5.2%, driven by summer tourism and sports events[5] Future Outlook - The economic growth rate in the third quarter is expected to be lower than in the second quarter, primarily due to the real estate sector's challenges[5] - Despite potential slowdowns, achieving the annual economic growth target of 5% remains feasible due to ongoing export support and consumption policies[5] - Risks include the possibility of domestic demand recovery being slower than anticipated[5]