实物货币与信用避险逻辑
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金属周报 | 宏观逻辑切换,贵金属与铜价分化反弹
对冲研投· 2026-03-30 04:02
Group 1 - The metal market showed a mixed trend last week, with precious metals temporarily shifting away from the actual interest rate pricing framework towards physical currency and credit risk aversion logic, leading to a rebound in gold and silver prices [2][3] - COMEX gold rebounded to around $4,500, with a slight weekly decline of 0.05%, while copper prices were supported by fundamental destocking and macro sentiment recovery, trading in the range of 95,000-96,000 yuan/ton [2][5] - Oil prices remained high due to ongoing geopolitical risks, with Brent crude testing the $100 mark, as concerns over long-term production capacity persisted [2][7] Group 2 - The previous market pricing for liquidity shocks has paused, with rising U.S. Treasury yields driven by inflation expectations and supply-demand imbalances rather than solely tightening expectations, leading to a shift in pricing logic for precious metals [4] - Domestic copper inventories have decreased for three consecutive weeks, with a significant reduction of 52,000 tons to 359,000 tons, supporting copper prices despite macro headwinds [6][10] - The geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on oil facilities have reinforced inflation expectations, impacting the transmission path to precious metals, which are now moving in tandem with oil prices [8][25] Group 3 - COMEX copper prices fluctuated, with the main contract trading between $5.3120 and $5.4615 per pound, closing the week up approximately 2.8% [10] - The copper concentrate treatment charge (TC) has further declined to -$68.9 per ton, leading to expectations of production cuts due to increased losses for smelters [12][21] - Global visible copper inventories have slightly decreased, with total inventories across major exchanges down by 13,000 tons, indicating a clear trend of destocking domestically while overseas inventories continue to accumulate [18][37] Group 4 - The gold-silver ratio has narrowed slightly, reflecting a stronger rebound in silver compared to gold, while the gold-copper ratio has declined, indicating a recovery in industrial demand expectations [27] - COMEX gold inventory decreased by approximately 600,000 ounces, while silver inventory fell by about 5.92 million ounces, indicating a tightening supply situation [38][42] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 23 tons to 1,101 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings rose by 475 tons to 15,992 tons, suggesting renewed interest in precious metals [42]