1月30日，美国总统特朗普提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。 分析人士认为，沃什的提名之所以对黄金、白银"杀伤力"极强，并非因为市场突然相信美联储将转向激进加息， 而是沃什被视为能"重新锚定美联储公信力"的人选。这一变化直接挑战了过去数周盛行的"央行独立性削弱—货币 贬值—实物资产永涨"叙事，也成为贵金属多头集中平仓的触发器。 中金公司分析认为，由于美联储政策与美国经济尚未出现拐点，因此黄金牛市可能并未结束。但在黄金价格已经 脱离基本面指标与模型拟合后，市场波动或明显增大，具体点位预测难度较高，建议淡化黄金价格点位预测，更 关注资产趋势改变时点。 文/北京青年报记者 张鑫 1月31日，国际金价暂时定格在4900美元上下。COMEX黄金期货报4907.5美元/盎司，跌8.35%；现货黄金报 4865.35美元/盎司，跌9.45%。现货白银更是跌26.77%，报84.7美元/盎司。 自北京时间1月30日下午开始，黄金、白银价格便出现大幅波动，至北京时间1月31日凌晨抛售更为汹涌。Wind数 据显示，现货白银价格盘中一度暴跌35.89%；现货黄金价格一度下跌12.92%，盘中跌穿每盎司4700美元，最低触 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump has triggered hawkish expectations in the market, leading to a panic sell-off in precious metals, particularly gold and silver [1][8]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold and silver prices experienced significant volatility starting January 30, with silver plunging by 35.89% and gold dropping by 12.92%, reaching a low of $4682 per ounce [1]. - By the end of trading, spot gold closed at $4880.034 per ounce, down 9.25%, marking the largest single-day decline since April 1, 1980, and erasing all gains for the week [3]. - Spot silver fell by 26.42%, the largest single-day drop since February 28, 1983, closing at $85.259 per ounce, after reaching a historical high of $121.6540 per ounce on January 29 [5]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts believe Warsh's nomination is perceived as a move to restore the credibility of the Federal Reserve, challenging the narrative of weakened central bank independence and currency devaluation that had driven investors to precious metals [8]. - The market's expectation that Warsh is more hawkish than other candidates has led to a rebound in the dollar, decreasing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities [8]. - Technical indicators had already signaled that gold and silver were overbought and due for a correction, with gold's Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently hitting 90, the highest level in decades [8]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Despite the recent sell-off, some analysts suggest that it is still a good time to buy metals, viewing the drop below $100 as an opportunity, particularly near the 20-day moving average around $93 [9].