Group 1 - Japan's real wages in November fell by 2.8% year-on-year, marking the largest decline since January of the previous year, primarily due to a significant drop in one-time bonuses [1][4] - The inflation rate remains high at 3.3%, which poses challenges for the Bank of Japan as it continues to signal interest rate hikes [2][6] - The average nominal wage growth was only 0.5%, the lowest since December 2021, influenced by a 17% drop in special bonuses [5][6] Group 2 - Fixed wages increased by 2.0%, slightly lower than the 2.4% increase in October, while overtime pay rose by 1.2% [6] - The largest labor union in Japan, Rengo, aims for an overall salary increase of at least 5% this year [3][6]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's household consumption is experiencing a significant decline due to rising prices outpacing income growth, leading to a drop in real consumption for two consecutive months [1] Group 1: Consumption Data - In October, the average monthly consumption expenditure for households with two or more members was 306,900 yen (approximately 1,980 USD), showing a nominal year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] - However, after adjusting for inflation, real consumption unexpectedly dropped by 3% year-on-year, which was much worse than the industry expectation of a 1% increase [1] - On a month-on-month basis, the adjusted real consumption decreased by 3.5%, indicating a further widening of the decline [1] Group 2: Spending Categories - Among ten major consumption categories, seven, including food, housing, utilities, and transportation, saw a year-on-year decrease in spending [1] - Conversely, spending on education, healthcare, and clothing increased [1] - The most significant factor contributing to the decline in monthly consumption was a 9.3% year-on-year drop in automobile spending, as consumers shifted towards purchasing microcars and used cars [1] Group 3: Trends and Projections - Mobile communication fees have also been on a downward trend, decreasing year-on-year for four consecutive months as users switch to lower-priced plans [1] - Data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications indicates that Japan's real average monthly household consumption has been declining for two consecutive years in 2023 and 2024 [1] - Experts suggest that with ongoing price increases and declining real wages, it is challenging to expect an increase in real consumption [1]

Core Points - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito failed to secure a majority in the recent Japanese Senate elections, marking the first time since the LDP's establishment in 1955 that it has lost majority seats in both houses simultaneously [1][3] - Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated he would continue to serve despite the coalition's losses, indicating a commitment to his role [1][6] - Analysts attribute the coalition's defeat to public dissatisfaction with rising prices, ineffective policy responses, and an aging image of traditional parties, revealing deeper crises in policy response and public communication [3][4] Election Results - The ruling coalition obtained a total of 47 seats, falling short of the 50-seat majority target [3] - The coalition's loss in the Senate follows a previous failure to secure a majority in the House of Representatives, officially transitioning to a minority government [3] Public Sentiment - Ishiba's cabinet support rate has dropped to 20.8%, the lowest since he took office, with over 40% of respondents citing a lack of leadership and policy failures as reasons for their discontent [4][6] - The decline in real wages, which fell by 2.9% year-on-year, has significantly reduced household purchasing power, leading to increased public frustration [3] Political Landscape - The absence of a mandatory re-election process for the Prime Minister in the Senate allows Ishiba to remain in power despite the losses [7] - The fragmented opposition parties are unlikely to unite quickly to propose a no-confidence motion against Ishiba, allowing him to potentially stay in office for the short term [7] Trade Negotiations - The ongoing U.S.-Japan trade negotiations are critical, with U.S. President Trump pressuring Japan for potential tariffs, which complicates the political situation for Ishiba [9] - Analysts express concerns about Japan's bargaining power being weakened due to the coalition's diminished status, complicating negotiations on tariffs in key sectors like agriculture and automobiles [9][10] Future Challenges - The ruling coalition will face significant challenges in the upcoming extraordinary Diet session, where it must secure support for the 2025 supplementary budget addressing price measures and U.S. tariff responses [10]