白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。10 月 10 日，鸡苗价格 3.23 元/ 羽，周环比+1.25%，同比-26.26%；毛鸡价格 6.68 元/公斤，周环比-0.30%， 同比-6.70%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。10 月 10 日浙江快大三黄鸡/ 青 脚 麻 鸡 / 雪 山 草 鸡 斤 价 分 别 为 5.0/6.4/8.7 元 ， 周 环 比 分 别 -9.09%/-3.03%/-3.33%。 证券研究报告 | 2025年10月11日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（178） 优于大市 贸易冲突支撑豆粕价格，国内外肉牛价格 Q4 有望共振上行 周度农产品跟踪：新一轮牛价上涨已开启，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。10 月 10 日生猪价格 11.14 元/ 公斤，周环比-7.48%，同比-38.45%；7kg 仔猪价格约 188.57 元/头，周环比 -5.04%，同比-33.33%。 鸡蛋：在产父母代存栏维持增长，中期供给压力较大。10 月 10 日，鸡蛋主 产区价格 2.93 元/斤，周环比-10.12%，同比-25.06%。 肉牛：新一轮牛价上 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [4] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle in 2025, with both domestic and international beef and raw milk markets expected to rise [3] - The pig farming sector is supported by a stable price floor, with a focus on undervalued leading companies [3] - The pet consumption market is identified as a growing sector benefiting from demographic changes [3] - The feed industry, particularly Haida Group, is expected to see significant returns due to the recovery of the aquaculture market [3] - The poultry sector is projected to experience a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from domestic demand recovery [3] Summary by Sections Swine - The swine industry is progressing orderly with a stable production capacity, and pig prices are expected to maintain a favorable trend into 2025. As of September 12, the price of live pigs was 13.26 yuan/kg, down 3.35% week-on-week and down 31.86% year-on-year [1] - The price of 7kg piglets was approximately 284.29 yuan/head, down 9.95% week-on-week and down 29.43% year-on-year [1] Poultry - The supply of white chickens has slightly increased, with attention on seasonal consumption recovery. As of September 12, the price of chicken seedlings was 3.03 yuan/bird, down 8.46% week-on-week [1] - The price of eggs in major production areas was 3.58 yuan/jin, up 6.98% week-on-week but down 24.10% year-on-year [1] Beef - A new round of beef price increases has begun, with a positive outlook for the beef cycle reversal in 2025. As of September 12, the average price of beef in the domestic market was 61.25 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week and up 21.29% year-on-year [1][3] Raw Milk - The average price of raw milk in major production areas was 3.03 yuan/kg as of September 4, up 0.3% week-on-week but down 3.5% year-on-year [2] Soybean Meal - The short-term supply of soybean meal is ample, while the medium to long-term supply-demand balance is expected to strengthen. As of September 12, the domestic soybean spot price was 4044 yuan/ton, up 0.95% week-on-week [2] Corn - The domestic supply-demand balance is tightening, and prices are expected to maintain a moderate upward trend. As of September 12, the domestic corn spot price was 2357 yuan/ton, up 0.30% week-on-week and up 1.77% year-on-year [2] Sugar - Short-term imports are increasing, with attention on the import rhythm and fluctuations in crude oil prices. As of September 12, the spot price of sugar in Guangxi was 5900 yuan/ton, up 0.17% week-on-week [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [1][5][4] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle in 2025, the growth of pet consumption, and the undervaluation of leading companies in the breeding chain [3][4] - It highlights a new round of beef price increases and expects strong support for pork prices due to low production capacity [1][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Livestock - Pork prices are expected to maintain low volatility, with a price of 13.70 CNY/kg as of August 15, 2025, up 0.37% week-on-week [1][13] - The beef market is seeing a new price increase, with an average price of 60.58 CNY/kg, up 0.41% week-on-week and 24.91% year-on-year [1][15] - The report anticipates a sustained improvement in the beef and raw milk markets due to domestic and international demand [3] Poultry - White chicken supply has slightly increased, with a price of 7.06 CNY/kg, down 1.67% week-on-week [1][14] - Yellow chicken supply remains at a low level, with prices for various types showing increases of 13% to 5% week-on-week [1][14] - The report expects long-term consumption levels for white chicken to rise, benefiting from domestic demand recovery [3] Feed and Other Agricultural Products - Soybean prices are at 3953 CNY/ton, up 0.67% week-on-week, while soybean meal prices are at 3092 CNY/ton, up 2.79% week-on-week [2][15] - Corn prices are expected to maintain a moderate increase, with a current price of 2376 CNY/ton, down 0.34% week-on-week but up 1.19% year-on-year [2][15] - The report notes that sugar prices have increased slightly, with a current price of 5960 CNY/ton, up 0.85% week-on-week [2][15] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Livestock: Youan Livestock, Modern Animal Husbandry, China Shengmu, Guangming Meat [3][4] - Pet Industry: Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., RuiPu Bio [3][4] - Feed: Haida Group [3][4] - Swine: Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, Huazhong Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and others [3][4] - Poultry: Lihua Co., Yisheng Co., Shengnong Development [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [1][6]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle in 2025, with expectations of a simultaneous rise in domestic and international beef and raw milk markets [4]. - The pet consumption sector is identified as a growing industry that will benefit from demographic changes [4]. - The feed industry, particularly Haida Group, is expected to achieve excess returns due to the recovery of the aquaculture market [4]. - The pig farming sector shows insufficient expansion willingness, but a stable market is anticipated in 2025, with a focus on undervalued leading companies [4]. - The poultry sector is expected to see a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from domestic demand recovery [4]. Summary by Sections Livestock - Beef prices have started to rise, with the average price on August 8 being 60.33 yuan/kg, a 0.97% increase from the previous week and a 29.74% increase year-on-year [2][16]. - The pig price on August 8 was 13.65 yuan/kg, down 3.81% week-on-week and down 33.51% year-on-year [14]. - The report forecasts a stable pig market in 2025, with a focus on leading companies like Muyuan and Wens [4][5]. Poultry - The price of broiler chicks increased by 23.08% week-on-week to 3.36 yuan/chick, while the price of broilers rose by 7.16% to 7.18 yuan/kg [15]. - The report anticipates a long-term increase in consumption for white chickens and expects yellow chickens to benefit from improved domestic demand [4]. Feed and Other Agricultural Products - The report notes that soybean meal prices are at historical lows, with a current price of 3008 yuan/ton, a 0.33% increase week-on-week [3][16]. - Corn prices are expected to maintain a moderate upward trend, with the current price at 2384 yuan/ton, down 0.71% week-on-week but up 0.76% year-on-year [3][16]. - Sugar prices have decreased slightly, with the current price at 5910 yuan/ton, down 1.34% week-on-week [3][16]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Livestock: YouRan, Modern Farming, China Shengmu, and Guangming Meat [4][5]. - Pet industry: Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Ruipu Biotech [4]. - Feed industry: Haida Group [4]. - Pig farming: Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan, Huadong, Wens, and others [4]. - Poultry: Lihua, Yisheng, and Shengnong Development [4].