民生证券发布研报表示，掘金牧业景气大周期，把握养殖龙头估值切换。1）肉牛及原奶：看好国内牧 业大周期反转，海内外肉牛及原奶景气有望共振上行。2）生猪：官方产能调控将加速头部企业现金流 快速好转，并有望转型为红利标的，在全行业产能收缩的背景下，龙头的成本优势有望明显提高，强者 恒强。3）禽：供给波动幅度有限，行情有望随需求复苏，龙头企业凭借单位超额收益优势有望实现更 高现金流分红回报。4）饲料：畜禽养殖工业化加深，产业分工明确，饲料龙头凭借技术和服务优势， 有望进一步拉大竞争优势。5）宠物：稀缺消费成长行业，有望持续受益人口变化趋势。 投资建议：推 荐牧业、猪禽龙头、宠物。1）牧业推荐：优然牧业、现代牧业，建议关注中国圣牧。2）生猪推荐：华 统股份、德康农牧、牧原股份、温氏股份、天康生物、神农集团等。3）禽推荐：立华股份、益生股 份、圣农发展等。4）饲料推荐：海大集团。5）宠物推荐：乖宝宠物等。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（183） 优于大市 生猪行业反内卷有序推进，看好海内外牧业大周期反转 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。11 月 21 日生猪价格 11.67 元/ 公斤，周环比-0.4%；15kg 仔猪价格约 318 元/头，周环比+0.5%。 原奶：Q4 奶牛去化有望加速，原奶价格年底或迎拐点。11 月 13 日，国内主 产区原奶均价为 3.02 元/kg，周度环比维持，同比-3.2%。 豆粕：短期到港供给宽松，中长期供需支撑走强。11 月 21 日，国内大豆现 货价为4015 元/吨，周环比+0.08%，豆粕现货价为3070 元/吨，周环比-0.90%。 玉米：国内供需平衡趋于收紧，价格有望维持温和上涨。11 月 21 日国内玉 米现货价 2227 元/吨，周环比+0.72%。 橡胶：短期价格预计趋稳，中期看好景气向上。11 月 21 日，天然橡胶现货 价为 14800 元/吨，周环比+0.0%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。11 月 21 日，鸡苗价格 3.48 元/ 羽，周 ...

Group 1: Livestock Industry Outlook - The livestock industry is expected to experience a significant reversal, with both beef and milk prices projected to rebound, driven by a reduction in domestic beef production capacity and a historical high in the meat-milk price ratio, which may accelerate the culling of dairy cows [1][15][45] - Domestic beef prices have been on a downward trend, with a cumulative decline of nearly 20% since June 2023, reaching a low of 23.77 CNY/kg by February 2025, while the market price for beef has dropped to 51.38 CNY/kg, down 6.5% year-on-year [15][21] - The supply of beef is expected to tighten as the number of cull cows decreases, leading to a potential price increase for beef from 2025 to 2027, supported by both domestic and international market dynamics [21][45] Group 2: Swine and Poultry Farming - The swine industry is shifting focus from cyclical trends to company management and cash flow generation, with leading firms expected to benefit from improved cash flow due to capacity adjustments [2][9] - In poultry farming, supply fluctuations are anticipated to be limited, with leading companies likely to achieve higher cash flow and dividend returns as demand recovers [2][9] - The feed industry is expected to see increased industrialization and specialization, with leading feed companies leveraging technology and service advantages to enhance their competitive edge [2][9] Group 3: Pet Industry Insights - The pet industry is viewed as a promising new consumption sector, benefiting from demographic trends, with domestic brands rapidly emerging [2][9] - The performance of leading pet food companies is expected to remain strong, with significant growth potential similar to the rise of domestic brands in Japan [2][9] - Key recommendations include domestic brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., which are positioned well in the market [2][9] Group 4: Agricultural Commodities Overview - Agricultural commodities are currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations of upward movement in the medium to long term [3][9] - Corn supply is expected to increase marginally in the short term, while the long-term outlook remains strong due to solid bottom support [3][9] - Soybean imports are anticipated to rise, driven by cost recovery, while oilseed supply is expected to increase moderately, supported by policy measures [3][9]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月17日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（182） 优于大市 肉牛价格有望持续上涨，奶牛产能或将去化加速 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。11 月 14 日生猪价格 11.73 元/ 公斤，周环比-1.5%；15kg 仔猪价格约 316.5 元/头，周环比+1%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。11 月 14 日，鸡苗价格 3.55 元/ 羽，周环比+3%；毛鸡价格 7.16 元/公斤，周环比+3%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。11 月 14 日浙江快大三黄鸡/ 青 脚 麻 鸡 / 雪 山 草 鸡 斤 价 分 别 为 4.1/5.0/7.8 元 ， 周 环 比 分 别 +0.0%/-2.0%/+0.0%。 鸡蛋：在产父母代存栏维持增长，中期供给压力较大。11 月 14 日，鸡蛋主 产区批发均价价 3.76 元/斤，周环比+2.31%，同比-27%。 肉牛：新一轮牛价上涨开启，看好 2025 年牛周期反转上行。11 月 14 日，牛 肉市场价为 66.63 元/kg，周环比-0.25%，同比+1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [4]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the large cycle in animal husbandry by 2025, with domestic beef and raw milk markets expected to experience upward momentum [2]. - The pig farming sector is supported by anti-involution measures, which are likely to stabilize long-term prices [2]. - The pet consumption market is identified as a growing sector benefiting from demographic changes [2]. - The feed industry, particularly Haida Group, is expected to benefit from the recovery in aquaculture [2]. - The poultry sector is projected to see a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from improved domestic demand [2]. Summary by Sections Livestock - Pig prices as of November 7 are 11.91 CNY/kg, down 5% week-on-week; 15kg piglet prices are approximately 314 CNY/head, up 4% week-on-week [1]. - Beef prices are on the rise, with the market price at 66.80 CNY/kg, up 0.85% week-on-week and 22% year-on-year [1][2]. Dairy - The average price of raw milk in major production areas is 3.03 CNY/kg, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.01 CNY/kg and a year-on-year decline of 3.2% [2]. Feed - Domestic soybean prices are at 4012 CNY/ton, up 0.37% week-on-week, while soybean meal prices are at 3072 CNY/ton, up 0.85% week-on-week [2]. Poultry - White chicken prices are 6.95 CNY/kg, down 2% week-on-week, while yellow chicken prices are expected to benefit from improved domestic demand [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Livestock: Youran Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Guangming Meat [3]. - Pig farming: Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, and others [3]. - Pet industry: Guibao Pet and Reap Bio [3]. - Feed: Haida Group [3]. - Poultry: Lihua Co., Yisheng Co., and others [3].

Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the livestock sector, particularly in beef and dairy farming, predicting a turning point in the domestic beef cycle by 2025, with prices expected to rise significantly [1][14] - The report recommends a selection of stocks in the livestock and feed sectors, highlighting companies like Yuran Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, and Haida Group as key investment opportunities [1][3] Livestock Sector - The report anticipates a reversal in the beef cycle, with domestic beef prices expected to rise due to a combination of domestic supply adjustments and international price increases [14] - The dairy market is projected to improve, driven by a rising meat-to-milk price ratio, which may accelerate the culling of dairy cows and enhance profitability for dairy farming companies [14] - Key recommended stocks in the livestock sector include Yuran Agriculture, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu [14][18] Swine Sector - The report highlights a recovery in the swine sector, with a focus on leading companies like DeKang Agriculture and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from valuation recovery as the market stabilizes [15][19] - The average price of live pigs was reported at 12.49 CNY/kg, reflecting a 6% month-on-month increase, while the price of piglets decreased by 9.18% [2][21] - The report notes that the industry is experiencing a rational approach to breeding, with a stable number of breeding sows maintained [21][22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is expected to see increased demand, with prices for broiler chickens and chicks rising, indicating a recovery in consumption as the market enters a peak season [34][37] - The report mentions that the supply of yellow-feathered chickens remains low, which may benefit leading producers as domestic demand improves [40][41] - Recommended stocks in the poultry sector include Lihua Stock and Shengnong Development [19] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a growth area, with domestic consumption expected to continue rising, particularly in pet food and healthcare [16] - Key recommended companies in the pet sector include Guibao Pet and Reap Bio [16][19] Feed Sector - The feed sector is projected to benefit from a recovery in aquaculture and livestock production, with Haida Group highlighted as a leading player in the feed market [1][19] - The report indicates that the price of corn, a key feed ingredient, is currently at a historical low, providing a strong cost support for feed production [21][22] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that soybean meal prices are at historical lows, while corn prices have decreased by 5.37% month-on-month [2][21] - The overall agricultural sector is expected to experience a gradual recovery, with specific attention to the dynamics of supply and demand for key commodities [19][22]

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector experienced a market pullback on October 28, with the only agricultural ETF (159275) showing a decline of 0.5% during the trading day [1][2]. Market Performance - The agricultural ETF (159275) traded at 0.989, reflecting a decrease of 0.5% [2]. - Key stocks in the sector, including biological shares, poultry farming, and aquaculture feed, saw declines, with several stocks dropping over 2% [1]. Sector Analysis - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector's fundamentals are expected to improve gradually, suggesting that the current pullback may present a good investment opportunity [1]. - Oriental Securities is optimistic about the pig farming sector, citing recent policies and market forces that are driving capacity reduction, which will enhance long-term performance [1]. - The feed and animal health sectors are anticipated to benefit from a rebound in pig inventory, which could lead to improved profitability across the supply chain [1]. Valuation Insights - The agricultural sector's valuation remains relatively low, with the market's first agricultural ETF (159275) showing a price-to-book ratio of 2.57, which is at the 30.08 percentile of the past decade, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [5][6]. Future Outlook - Guosen Securities is optimistic about a reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly in beef and raw milk sectors, predicting a potential upturn in 2025 [7]. - The pig farming sector is expected to see a reduction in production capacity, which may positively influence stock prices and sector performance [7]. - The agricultural ETF (159275) tracks the CSI All Agricultural Index, which encompasses a wide range of industries within the agricultural sector, providing comprehensive exposure to potential recovery opportunities [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle in 2025, with both domestic and international beef and raw milk markets expected to improve [4] - The pig industry is supported by a trend of "anti-involution," which is likely to stabilize long-term prices [4] - The pet consumption sector is identified as a growing industry benefiting from demographic changes [4] - The feed sector, particularly Haida Group, is expected to achieve excess returns due to the recovery in aquaculture [4] - The poultry sector is anticipated to see a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from domestic demand recovery [4] Summary by Sections Swine - As of October 24, the price of live pigs is 11.82 CNY/kg, up 6.01% week-on-week [2] - The price of 15kg piglets is approximately 17.66 CNY/kg, down 1.83% week-on-week [2] - The industry is experiencing orderly progress in "anti-involution," which is expected to support profitability [14] Poultry - The supply of white chickens has slightly increased, with a focus on seasonal consumption recovery [2] - As of October 24, the price of chicken seedlings is 3.36 CNY/piece, up 2.13% week-on-week [15] - The price of broilers is 6.88 CNY/kg, up 0.15% week-on-week [15] - Yellow chicken supply remains at a low level, with potential benefits from improved domestic demand [15] Beef - A new round of beef price increases has begun, with a positive outlook for the beef cycle reversal in 2025 [2] - As of October 24, the average price of beef is 66.61 CNY/kg, up 0.36% week-on-week [16] Raw Milk - The average price of raw milk in major production areas is 3.04 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but down 2.88% year-on-year [3] - The report anticipates an acceleration in the reduction of dairy cows in Q3, potentially leading to a price turning point by year-end [3] Soybean Meal - Short-term supply is expected to be ample, while medium to long-term supply and demand are projected to strengthen [3] - As of October 24, the domestic soybean spot price is 3997 CNY/ton, up 0.09% week-on-week, and soybean meal is 2984 CNY/ton, down 0.86% week-on-week [3] Corn - Domestic supply and demand balance is tightening, with prices expected to maintain moderate increases [3] - As of October 24, the domestic corn spot price is 2249 CNY/ton, down 0.64% week-on-week, but up 0.10% year-on-year [3] Sugar - Short-term imports are increasing, with attention on import rhythms and fluctuations in crude oil prices [3] - As of October 24, the spot price in Guangxi Nanning is 5750 CNY/ton, down 0.69% week-on-week [3] Rubber - Short-term prices are expected to stabilize, with a positive outlook for mid-term market conditions [3] - As of October 24, the price of Thai rubber is 1860 USD/ton, up 0.54% week-on-week [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle in 2025, with both domestic and international beef and raw milk markets expected to improve [4] - The pig industry is supported by a trend of "anti-involution," which is likely to stabilize long-term prices [4] - The pet consumption sector is identified as a growing industry benefiting from demographic changes [4] - The feed sector, particularly Haida Group, is expected to achieve excess returns due to the recovery in aquaculture [4] - The poultry sector is anticipated to see a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from domestic demand recovery [4] Summary by Sections Swine - As of October 24, the price of live pigs is 11.82 CNY/kg, up 6.01% week-on-week [2] - The price of 15kg piglets is approximately 17.66 CNY/kg, down 1.83% week-on-week [2] - The industry is experiencing orderly progress in "anti-involution," which is expected to support profitability [14] Poultry - The supply of white chickens has slightly increased, with a focus on seasonal consumption recovery [2] - As of October 24, the price of chicken seedlings is 3.36 CNY/piece, up 2.13% week-on-week [15] - The price of eggs in major production areas is 3.69 CNY/jin, down 1.99% week-on-week and down 30.34% year-on-year [2][15] Beef - A new round of beef price increases has begun, with a positive outlook for the beef cycle reversal in 2025 [2] - As of October 24, the average price of beef is 66.61 CNY/kg, up 0.36% week-on-week [16] Raw Milk - The average price of raw milk in major domestic production areas is 3.04 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but down 2.88% year-on-year [3] Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean spot price is 3997 CNY/ton, up 0.09% week-on-week, while soybean meal is priced at 2984 CNY/ton, down 0.86% week-on-week [3] Corn - The domestic corn spot price is 2249 CNY/ton, down 0.64% week-on-week but up 0.10% year-on-year [3] Sugar - The price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi, is 5750 CNY/ton, down 0.69% week-on-week [3] Rubber - The price of Thai rubber is 1860 USD/ton, up 0.54% week-on-week, while full latex in Shandong is priced at 14700 CNY/ton, up 5.00% week-on-week [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [4] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle in 2025, with both domestic and international beef and milk markets expected to rise [3] - The report highlights the support for long-term pig prices due to industry restructuring, recommending undervalued leading companies in the sector [3] - The pet consumption sector is identified as a growth area benefiting from demographic changes [3] - The report suggests that the white chicken market will see a long-term increase in consumption, while yellow chicken may benefit first from domestic demand recovery [3] Summary by Sections Livestock - Beef prices are expected to rise, with the average price on October 17 at 25.73 yuan/kg, down 0.16% week-on-week but up 8.20% year-on-year [2] - The report anticipates a significant increase in raw milk prices by the end of the year, with the average price at 3.04 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week but down 2.88% year-on-year [2] - The pig market is experiencing a price drop, with the average price at 11.10 yuan/kg, down 0.36% week-on-week and 37.32% year-on-year [1][2] Poultry - The white chicken market shows a slight increase in supply, with prices for chicks at 3.24 yuan/bird, up 0.31% week-on-week but down 24.83% year-on-year [1] - The yellow chicken supply remains at a low level, with prices for various types of yellow chicken showing mixed trends [1] Feed and Grains - Soybean meal prices are supported by a favorable supply-demand balance, with current prices at 3,010 yuan/ton, up 0.13% week-on-week [2] - Corn prices are expected to maintain a moderate increase, with current prices at 2,205 yuan/ton, down 1.12% week-on-week but up 1.10% year-on-year [2] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Livestock: YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, China Shengmu, Guangming Meat [3] - Pork: DeKang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, Huazhong Agriculture, Wen's Food Group, and others [3] - Pet Industry: Guibao Pet, Reap Bio [3] - Feed: Haida Group [3] - Poultry: Lihua Co., Yisheng Co., and others [3]