Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][4]. Core Views - The report anticipates a reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly benefiting Hong Kong dairy farming stocks [1]. - The monthly recommended stock portfolio includes leading companies in various segments: Yuran Agriculture, Modern Farming, Muyuan Foods, Dekang Agriculture, and Lihua Co., among others [1][3]. - The report highlights the expected upward trend in domestic beef and milk prices, driven by a recovery in the livestock cycle and improved cash flow for leading companies [1][14]. Summary by Sections Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to experience a significant turnaround, with recommendations for Yuran Agriculture and Modern Farming as key beneficiaries [1][14]. - The report notes that domestic beef production capacity is decreasing, which may lead to price increases through 2028 [14]. - The improvement in raw milk prices is anticipated to benefit dairy farming companies, with a projected profit increase for Yuran Agriculture and Modern Farming [17]. Swine Sector - The swine sector is highlighted for its potential recovery, with leading companies like Huazhong, Dekang Agriculture, and Muyuan Foods recommended for investment [1][14]. - The report indicates that the industry is moving towards a more stable price center, supported by a reduction in production capacity and improved cash flow for leading firms [15][20]. Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is expected to see a recovery in demand, with recommendations for Lihua Co. and Shengnong Development [1][18]. - The report notes that the supply of white feather chickens is increasing, but demand is expected to improve, leading to potential price recovery [22][24]. Pet Sector - The pet food market is identified as a growing segment, with a focus on domestic brands like Guibao Pet [1][16]. - The report emphasizes the long-term growth potential of the pet sector, driven by rising consumer sentiment and market expansion [16]. Feed Sector - The feed sector is expected to benefit from deeper industrialization in livestock farming, with leading companies like Haida Group recommended [1][18]. - The report notes that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a strong support level for future price recovery [18].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a favorable outlook for the livestock sector, particularly dairy farming, anticipating a significant cyclical reversal in the industry [1][12] - The recommended stocks include leading companies in various segments such as dairy, pork, poultry, and pet food, indicating a diversified investment strategy [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to experience a cyclical reversal, with both beef and milk prices projected to rise, benefiting companies like Yuran Agriculture and Modern Farming [14][17] - The domestic beef market is anticipated to improve due to reduced production capacity and favorable pricing dynamics, with beef prices currently at 61.88 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.59% [29] - The report highlights the potential for significant earnings recovery for dairy farming companies as milk prices are expected to rebound, driven by improved market conditions [14][17] Pork Sector - The pork sector is witnessing a stabilization in prices, with January 2026 pork prices at 12.16 yuan/kg, down 4% month-on-month, while piglet prices have surged by 57.86% [20][21] - Leading companies in the pork industry, such as Muyuan Foods and Huazhong Holdings, are expected to benefit from improved cash flows and dividend returns as the market stabilizes [15][19] - The report notes that the industry is undergoing a rationalization process, with a focus on reducing production capacity and enhancing profitability for leading firms [20][21] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is experiencing a slight increase in supply, with broiler prices showing a month-on-month increase of 2.94% to 7.70 yuan/kg, indicating a potential recovery in demand [22][23] - The report suggests that the white-feathered chicken industry is poised for price recovery as domestic demand stabilizes, supported by seasonal consumption trends [22][24] - The overall outlook for poultry remains positive, with expectations of improved profitability driven by demand recovery and supply adjustments [22][24] Pet Food Sector - The pet food market is identified as a high-growth area, with domestic brands gaining market share and expected to benefit from rising consumer sentiment [16][18] - The report highlights the strong performance of leading pet food companies, which are focusing on product upgrades and direct sales strategies to capture market opportunities [16][18] - The pet food export volume has increased by 12.99% month-on-month, indicating robust demand in international markets [16][18] Feed Sector - The feed industry is expected to benefit from the deepening industrialization of livestock farming, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages to enhance competitive positioning [1][3] - The report notes that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a supportive cost structure for livestock producers [20][21] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, indicating that soybean meal prices are at historical lows, while corn prices have shown a slight increase to 2333 yuan/ton [2][21] - The overall agricultural market is characterized by a focus on supply-demand dynamics, with expectations of tightening supply for key commodities like soybeans and corn [20][21]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a favorable outlook for the livestock sector, particularly dairy farming, anticipating a significant cyclical reversal benefiting Hong Kong-listed dairy farming companies [1][12] - The investment strategy highlights a recommended monthly portfolio including leading companies in various segments such as dairy, pig farming, and pet food [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to experience a cyclical reversal, with both beef and milk prices projected to rise, driven by a reduction in domestic beef production and a historical low in milk prices [14][29] - Key recommendations include Yuran Dairy and Modern Farming, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated price recovery in raw milk and beef [14][17] Pig Farming Sector - The pig farming sector is witnessing a stabilization in prices, with a notable increase in piglet prices, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for leading companies [20][21] - Recommended companies in this sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and Huazhong Holdings, which are expected to benefit from improved cash flow and dividend returns [3][15] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is seeing a slight increase in supply, with expectations of demand recovery supporting price stability, particularly for broiler chickens [22][24] - Leading companies such as Lihua Agricultural and Shengnong Development are highlighted for their competitive advantages in cost management and market positioning [18][19] Pet Food Sector - The pet food market is identified as a high-growth area, benefiting from rising consumer sentiment and the emergence of domestic brands [16][18] - Companies like Guibao Pet Food are recommended for their strong growth potential in this segment [3][16] Feed Sector - The feed industry is expected to deepen its industrialization, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages to enhance competitive positioning [1][3] - The report notes that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a supportive cost structure for producers [20][21] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting fluctuations in pork, chicken, and feed prices, with implications for overall market dynamics [2][21] - The analysis indicates that soybean meal prices are at historical lows, while corn prices are stabilizing, suggesting a tightening supply-demand balance in the medium term [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [1][4]. Core Insights - The livestock sector is expected to experience a cyclical recovery, with meat cattle and raw milk prices anticipated to rise due to domestic and international market conditions [3]. - The pig farming sector is supported by capacity control measures, which are likely to enhance cash flow for leading companies, positioning them as attractive investment opportunities [3]. - Poultry supply is expected to stabilize, with leading companies benefiting from demand recovery and higher cash flow returns [3]. - The feed industry is set to gain from deeper industrialization and clear division of labor, allowing leading companies to expand their competitive advantages [3]. - The pet industry is identified as a growth sector benefiting from demographic trends [3]. Summary by Sections Swine - As of January 23, 2026, the price of live pigs is 12.87 CNY/kg, up 1.42% week-on-week, while the price of 7kg piglets is approximately 343.33 CNY/head, up 11.09% week-on-week [1][13]. - The industry is witnessing a controlled reduction in production capacity, which is expected to support profitability for low-cost producers [13]. Poultry - The price of chicken seedlings is 1.63 CNY/bird, down 31.80% week-on-week, while the price of broilers is 7.34 CNY/kg, down 1.08% week-on-week [1][14]. - Supply is slightly increasing, and there is a focus on seasonal consumption recovery [3]. Beef - The price of fattened cattle is 25.66 CNY/kg, up 0.59% week-on-week, and the beef market price is 61.55 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week [2][14]. - A new round of price increases for beef is anticipated, indicating a potential upward trend in the beef cycle [2]. Raw Milk - The average price of raw milk is 3.03 CNY/kg, up 0.33% week-on-week, with expectations for a price turning point in 2026 [2][14]. - The reduction in dairy cow numbers is likely to continue, impacting supply dynamics [2]. Feed - The domestic soybean spot price is 4072 CNY/ton, stable week-on-week, while the soybean meal price is 3186 CNY/ton, up 0.31% week-on-week [2][14]. - The feed industry is expected to strengthen due to favorable supply-demand dynamics [2]. Corn - The domestic corn spot price is 2331 CNY/ton, up 0.30% week-on-week, with a tightening supply-demand balance expected to support moderate price increases [2][14]. Rubber - The price of natural rubber is 15900 CNY/ton, up 1.92% week-on-week, with a positive outlook for the mid-term market [2][14].

进口牛肉限制政策分析 "配额+关税"落地，后续国内进口预计量减价增。政策保护国内肉牛产业的信号明确，商务部决定自 2026年1月1日起以"国别配额及配额外加征关税"的形式对进口牛肉采取保障措施，保障措施实施期限为 3年，对来自巴西、阿根廷、乌拉圭、新西兰、澳大利亚、美国等其他国家和地区的配额外进口将加征 55%关税。综合考虑各国牛肉生产及贸易优劣势差异后，该行预估未来国内实际可从美国、新西兰、乌 拉圭进口的牛肉有限，或难达配额数量。在中性情形假设下，预计2026年最终我国配额内合计进口牛肉 量将达234万吨，或较2024全年牛肉进口量减少接近20%，未来牛肉进口压力将显著减轻。 海外牛价周期展望 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，牧业大周期反转明确，奶牛及肉牛相关产业受益。对于奶牛 养殖行业，肉牛大周期上行有望明显增厚其奶牛淘汰和犊牛外销收益，同时原奶行情改善利好主业盈利 修复，肉奶共振背景下同样具备较高业绩修复弹性。对于肉牛养殖或屠宰加工行业，业绩将直接受益牛 肉景气上行。 国信证券主要观点如下： 全球牛价正在进入上行周期。主产区中，美国中西部草场因2020-2022年拉尼娜气象周期导致的严重干 旱而 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the livestock industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The implementation of import beef restrictions through a "quota + tariff" system is expected to reduce the volume of imported beef while increasing prices, signaling strong protection for the domestic beef industry [1][12]. - Global beef prices are entering an upward cycle due to reduced supply in major producing regions and strong demand in consuming areas, with a projected price increase of nearly 60% from the bottom by the end of 2025 [2][52]. - Domestic beef supply and demand dynamics indicate a price increase trend that may continue until 2028, driven by a significant reduction in cow numbers and subsequent tightening of beef supply [3][19]. Summary by Sections Import Beef Policy Analysis - The Chinese government has implemented protective measures for the domestic beef industry, with a quota and additional tariffs on imported beef starting January 1, 2026, for a duration of three years [1][12]. - The expected import volume for 2026 is projected to be approximately 2.34 million tons, a reduction of nearly 20% compared to 2024 [1][15][42]. Overseas Beef Price Cycle Outlook - Global beef prices are expected to maintain an upward trend due to supply reductions in major producing areas and strong demand in consuming regions [2][44]. - The FAO reports that global beef prices have increased by nearly 60% from their lowest point as of December 2025 [2][52]. Domestic Beef Supply and Demand Analysis - The domestic beef industry is experiencing a turning point, with a significant increase in prices anticipated until 2028 due to a reduction in cow numbers and a tightening supply [3][19]. - The report highlights that the beef production cycle has a lag effect, with the impact of cow culling expected to be felt from early 2026 through 2028, leading to a widening supply gap [3][20].

Group 1 - The livestock ETF (159865) rose over 1.2%, with institutions indicating that the accelerated reduction in pig production capacity may support sector expectations [1] - Guosen Securities predicts an imminent reversal in the livestock cycle, optimistic about the domestic meat and dairy sectors experiencing a synchronous upward trend, with livestock companies likely to see high elasticity recovery in performance [1] - Domestic beef production capacity reduction may reach levels comparable to the 2019 pig cycle, with a price turning point expected in 2025, potentially leading to continuous price increases until 2028 [1] Group 2 - Domestic raw milk prices have declined for nearly four years, leading to continuous losses and production capacity exit pressure, while the meat-to-milk price ratio has reached historical highs, likely accelerating the elimination of dairy cows and achieving "meat and milk resonance" [1] - In pig farming, leading enterprises are experiencing rapid cash flow improvement and are expected to transform into profitable entities, with cost advantages becoming more pronounced amid industry-wide capacity contraction [1] - In poultry farming, supply fluctuations are limited, and market conditions are expected to improve with demand recovery, allowing leading companies to achieve higher cash flow dividend returns due to excess unit returns [1] Group 3 - The feed industry benefits from the deepening industrialization of livestock and poultry farming, with clear industry division of labor, and leading feed companies are expected to further enhance competitive advantages through technology and service [1] - The pet sector is emerging as a high-quality consumption track benefiting from long-term demographic trends, with domestic brands rapidly rising, and leading pet food companies showing strong mid-term performance growth certainty [1] Group 4 - The livestock ETF (159865) tracks the CSI Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming, feed processing, and veterinary drug production to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [2] - The constituent stocks cover the entire livestock industry chain, demonstrating strong industry representativeness [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [1][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a potential upward trend in the beef and dairy sectors, driven by a reversal in the agricultural cycle, with domestic and international beef and dairy markets expected to resonate positively [3]. - The pig farming sector is anticipated to benefit from capacity control measures, leading to improved cash flow for leading enterprises, which may transform them into dividend stocks amidst industry-wide capacity reduction [3]. - Poultry supply fluctuations are expected to be limited, with demand recovery likely to enhance the performance of leading companies, which can achieve higher cash flow returns due to their excess yield advantages [3]. - The feed sector is projected to deepen industrialization, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages to widen their competitive edge [3]. - The pet industry is identified as a growing sector benefiting from demographic trends [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - The report provides a weekly summary of agricultural product fundamentals, indicating a slight decrease in pig prices and a stable outlook for beef prices [12][13]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The average price of live pigs on December 26 was 11.52 CNY/kg, down 0.43% week-on-week and down 26.48% year-on-year [13]. - The price of 7kg piglets was approximately 217.38 CNY/head, down 0.54% week-on-week and down 40.87% year-on-year [13]. 2.2 White Chicken - The price of chicken seedlings was 3.34 CNY/bird, down 0.89% week-on-week, while the price of broilers was 7.78 CNY/kg, up 6.87% week-on-week [13][14]. 2.3 Yellow Chicken - Prices for various types of yellow chicken remained stable, with slight fluctuations observed [14]. 2.4 Eggs - The main production area price for eggs was 2.92 CNY/jin, down 4.89% week-on-week and down 17.75% year-on-year, indicating significant supply pressure [14]. 2.5 Beef - The price of fattened bulls was 25.20 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week, and the beef market price was 60.91 CNY/kg, down 0.21% week-on-week but up 20.02% year-on-year [2][14]. 2.6 Raw Milk - The average price of raw milk was 3.03 CNY/kg, up 0.33% week-on-week, with expectations for accelerated dairy cow liquidation in Q4 [2][14]. 2.7 Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean price was 4015 CNY/ton, stable week-on-week, while soybean meal was priced at 3134 CNY/ton, up 0.51% week-on-week [2][14]. 2.8 Corn - The domestic corn price was 2300 CNY/ton, down 0.04% week-on-week but up 10.42% year-on-year, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance [2][14]. 2.9 Rubber - Short-term prices are expected to stabilize, with a positive outlook for the medium term [2]. 2.10 Sugar - Short-term imports are increasing, with attention on import rhythms and fluctuations in crude oil prices [2]. 2.11 Palm Oil - Short-term supply is weak while demand remains strong, with medium-term policy support expected [2]. 2.12 Cotton - Inventory pressure is neutral, with demand still needing recovery [2]. 2.13 Red Dates - The new season is expected to maintain high production, with attention on seasonal consumption support [2]. 3. Market Trends - The report includes a weekly performance summary of agricultural stocks, indicating fluctuations in various sectors [12].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月23日 2025年12月24日 牧业大周期更新点评 重视牧业大周期反转，肉奶联动有望打开成长空间 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 | | 农林牧渔  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 鲁家瑞 | 021-61761016 | lujiarui@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520110002 | | 证券分析师： | 李瑞楠 | 021-60893308 | liruinan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523030001 | | 证券分析师： | 江海航 | | jianghaihang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524070003 | 事项： 据农业农村部统计，截至 2025 年 12 月 18 日，国内主产区牛肉均价为 65.73 元/kg，较年初低点累计上涨 16%；主产区生鲜乳均价为 3.02 元/kg，较年初累计下跌约 3%；肉奶比（牛肉价格/生鲜乳价格）已接近 22，创历史新高。 国信农业观点：1） ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月21日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（187） 优于大市 牧业产能维持去化，看好肉奶周期共振反转 鸡蛋：在产父母代存栏维持增长，中期供给压力较大。12 月 19 日，鸡蛋主 产区价格 3.07 元/斤，周环比-0.65%，同比-5.98%。 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。12 月 19 日生猪价格 11.57 元/ 公斤，周环比+2.03%；7kg 仔猪价格约 218.57 元/头，周环比-0.43%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。12 月 19 日，鸡苗价格 3.37 元/ 羽，周环比-0.30%；毛鸡价格 7.28 元/公斤，周环比+0.55%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。12 月 18 日浙江快大三黄鸡/ 青 脚 麻 鸡 / 雪 山 草 鸡 斤 价 分 别 为 5.0/5.9/7.5 元 ， 周 环 比 分 别 +8.70%/+5.36%/-8.54%。 肉牛：新一轮牛价上涨开启，看好牛周期反转上行。12 月 12 日，国内育肥 公牛出栏价为 25.40 元/kg，环比+0.79 ...