宠物食品行业升级
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乖宝宠物(301498):自有品牌势能强劲 龙头成长确定性强
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-21 06:38
Core Viewpoint - The company, Guibao Pet, has rapidly developed its own brands in the pet food industry, with significant growth in market share and sales performance, particularly in the high-end segment [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Guibao Pet was established in 2006, initially focusing on pet snacks for export and OEM processing. The company launched its own brand "Maifudi" in 2013 to enter the domestic market [1]. - The company has expanded its brand portfolio, introducing high-end pet food brands such as "Fuleijiate" in 2019 and the high-end sub-brand "BARF" in 2021 [1]. - According to Euromonitor data, Guibao Pet is projected to hold the largest market share among domestic brands in the pet food industry by 2024 [1]. Group 2: Sales Performance - The two main brands, Maifudi and Fuleijiate, have shown rapid growth, with GMV on major e-commerce platforms (Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo) increasing by 23.5% and 146.8% year-on-year respectively in the first half of 2025 [1]. - The pet food sales across the three major e-commerce platforms grew by 13% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating a sustained growth trend in the industry [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The pet food sector is expected to experience significant growth, with projections indicating a high single-digit growth in 2024 and a potential growth of 60% to 90% by 2030 [2]. - The competitive landscape in China's pet food industry remains fragmented, with opportunities for domestic brands to increase their market share, potentially reaching 10% to 18% when compared to markets in Japan, South Korea, and Thailand [2]. Group 4: Brand Development and Innovation - The company has effectively identified trends and leveraged strong R&D capabilities to launch high-quality new products, resulting in an increasing share of mid-to-high-end brands [3]. - The product matrix is well-rounded, with strong performance across various categories, and the company maintains a stable ranking in sales during major promotional events [3]. Group 5: Export Business - The export business has experienced fluctuations due to external factors such as tariffs and global economic conditions, but is expected to recover to double-digit growth in 2024 [4]. - The company has expanded its production capacity in Thailand, which is anticipated to positively impact export performance in the long term, despite short-term challenges [4]. Group 6: Profitability - The company's gross margin is projected to increase from 28.8% in 2021 to 42.3% in 2024, driven by favorable raw material costs and improved product and channel structures [5]. - The net profit margin is expected to rise from 5.4% in 2021 to 11.9% in 2024, indicating significant potential for profitability compared to global leaders like Nestlé and Colgate [5]. Group 7: Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are set at 6.43 billion, 7.94 billion, and 9.63 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 22.6%, 23.4%, and 21.4% respectively [6]. - The expected net profit for the same period is forecasted to be 760 million, 970 million, and 1.22 billion yuan, with growth rates of 21.4%, 28.0%, and 25.7% respectively [6].