行 行业周报 业 内需主导奠定明年经济基调，短期关注出口链改善 ——轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 | 研 | | | | | ——轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 究 | 分析师： | 袁艺博 | | SAC NO： S1150521120002 | 2025 | 年 | 月 | 12 | | | 15 | 日 | | | | 轻工制造 | | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | | | | | | 纺织服饰 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |  行业要闻 | | | | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师 | | | （1）中央经济工作会议在北京举行。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 袁艺博 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | yuanyb@bhzq.com | | | （2）《关于加强商务和金融协同更大力度提振消 ...

在线上的出 2025 年 12 月 15 日 ted by street the see the series of the see on the see on the series of the see of the see of the see the series of the seen the series of the sering the sering the sering 相关研究 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 猪价底部震荡亏损延续， 宠物食品线上销售情况 农林牧渔周观点（2025.12.8-2025.12.14） 本期投资提示: 7.00% 4.00% 1.00% -2.00% -5.00% 资料来源：iFinD，申万宏源研究 请务必仔细阅读 ...

行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 15 日 猪价底部震荡亏损延续，关注11月 宠物食品线上销售情况 看好 —— 农林牧渔周观点（2025.12.8-2025.12.14） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 1．本周农业股市场表现 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 0.1%，沪深 300 下跌 0.1%。个股涨幅前五名：*ST 正邦 （19.4%）、生物股份（17.2%）、平潭发展（13.8%）、罗牛山（13.7%）、神农科技 （12.3%），跌幅前五名：西王食品（-15.4%）、海利生物（-13.0%）、华英农业（- 12.4%）、好当家（-11 ...

证券研究报告 2025.12.14 农业周报：宠食新消费品牌发力大促 王思洋 分析员 陈泰屹 分析员 龙友琪 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080523070004 SFC CE Ref：BTG198 siyang5.wang@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080524020011 taiyi.chen@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080524010004 youqi.long@cicc.com.cn 行业动态 行业近况 本周（12.8-12.12）农林牧渔涨幅+0.3%，跑赢大盘 0.4ppt。涨 幅前三个股为正邦/生物股份/罗牛山，分别+19%/+17%/+14%。 评论 畜禽产业链：11 月样本上市猪企出栏环比下降。1）生猪养殖： 商品猪/二元母猪/7kg仔猪价格周环比+2.1%/-0.5%/+1.2%；11 月样本上市猪企出栏量环比减少 5.5%；涌益 17 省育肥栏舍利用 率环比-6.5ppt；本周商品猪出栏均重周环比-0.2%，关注北方动 物疫病情况；德康"百村百万"家庭农场基地投运。2）禽养 殖：鸡苗/毛鸡/鸡产品价格周环比+1.4%/+0.8%/+0.6%；哈 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, driven by recent policies and market conditions, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3][9] - The report identifies several investment opportunities across different segments of the agriculture industry, including pig farming, feed, planting, and pet food sectors [3][43] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - The pig farming industry is experiencing accelerated capacity reduction, with current pig prices and expectations both weak, leading to a significant decline in profitability [9] - In November, 14 listed pig companies collectively slaughtered 16.82 million pigs, a decrease of 2.21% month-on-month but an increase of 22.48% year-on-year [13] - The average selling price of pigs showed a slight recovery, with prices ranging from 11.1 to 12.53 yuan/kg, although still down approximately 30% year-on-year [15] Feed Sector - The report notes that raw material prices for feed are stabilizing at the bottom, with corn prices slightly down and soybean meal prices up [28] - As of December 12, corn prices averaged 2,356.67 yuan/ton, down 0.08%, while soybean meal prices rose by 1.54% to 3,159.43 yuan/ton [28] Planting Sector - The report indicates a confirmed upward trend in grain prices, suggesting favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries, with significant investment opportunities [3][43] Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry is in a growth phase, with increasing domestic brand recognition and continuous growth among leading companies [3][43]

据天眼查APP显示，乖宝宠物食品集团股份有限公司成立于2006年06月26日，注册资本40047.284万人 民币。（数据宝） 12月12日乖宝宠物大宗交易一览 | 成交量（万 | 成交金额（万 | 成交价格 | 相对当日收盘折溢价 | 买方营业 | 卖方营业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股） | 元） | （元） | （%） | 部 | 部 | | 142.53 | 9867.59 | 69.23 | 0.00 | 机构专用 | 机构专用 | （文章来源：证券时报网） 乖宝宠物12月12日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量142.53万股，成交金额9867.59万元，大宗交易成 交价为69.23元。该笔交易的买卖双方均为机构专用席位。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，乖宝宠物今日收盘价为69.23元，下跌0.50%，日换手率为3.60%，成交额为 4.47亿元，全天主力资金净流出223.03万元，近5日该股累计上涨2.68%，近5日资金合计净流出985.16万 元。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为3.03亿元，近5日增加1423.23万元，增幅为4.93%。 ...

研究所： 证券分析师： 程一胜 S0350521070001 chengys01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 熊子兴 S0350522100002 xiongzx@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 王思言 S0350524010001 wangsy02@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/12/05 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 农林牧渔 | -0.9% | -0.5% | 11.6% | | 沪深 300 | -0.9% | 2.8% | 16.9% | 相关报告 《农林牧渔行业周报：生猪去化或将加速（推荐） *农林 牧渔*程一 胜，熊子 兴，王思 言》 —— 2025-11-10 2025 年 12 月 08 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 《农林牧渔行业周报：双十一开启，关注宠物板块 行情（推荐）*农林牧渔*程一胜，熊子兴，王思言》 ——2025-10-20 《农林牧渔行业周报：如何看生猪板块持续性（推 荐）*农林牧渔*程一胜，熊子兴，王思言》—— 2025-09-22 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月07日 2025年12月08日 农林牧渔 2025 年 12 月投资策略 优于大市 牧业大周期反转预计在即，核心推荐港股奶牛养殖标的 月度重点推荐组合：优然牧业（牧业大周期受益龙头），现代牧业（国内牧 业龙头企业）、牧原股份（生猪养殖龙头）。 各细分板块推荐逻辑：1）肉牛及原奶：牧业大周期反转预计在即，看好国 内肉奶景气共振上行，牧业公司业绩有望迎来高弹性修复。2）生猪：头部 企业现金流快速好转，并有望转型为红利标的，在全行业产能收缩的背景下， 龙头的成本优势有望明显提高，强者恒强。3）宠物：宠物作为新消费优质 赛道，长期景气受益人口趋势，且国内自主品牌正快速崛起，头部宠食标的 中期业绩增长确定性仍较强。4）饲料：畜禽养殖工业化加深，产业分工明 确，饲料龙头凭借技术和服务优势，有望进一步拉大竞争优势。5）禽：供 给波动幅度有限，行情有望随需求复苏，龙头企业凭借单位超额收益优势有 望实现更高现金流分红回报。 农产品价格跟踪：1）生猪：11 月末生猪 11.25 元/公斤，月环比-10%，7kg 仔猪价格约 216 元/头，月环比+18%。2）禽：11 月末白鸡毛鸡价格 7.10 ...

Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks [1][12] - The monthly recommended portfolio includes YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from the livestock cycle recovery [1][3] - The report highlights the expected upward trend in domestic beef and milk prices, suggesting a strong recovery in the performance of livestock companies [1][14] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is projected to experience a major turnaround, with a focus on dairy farming stocks such as YouRan Agriculture and Modern Farming [1][14] - The report indicates that the domestic beef and milk markets are likely to see a price rebound, driven by a reduction in production capacity and improved demand dynamics [1][14] - The anticipated "meat-milk resonance" is expected to enhance profitability for dairy farming companies, with significant earnings recovery potential [1][14] Swine Sector - The swine sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in prices, with leading companies like Huazhong and Muyuan Foods positioned to benefit from valuation corrections [1][14] - The report notes that the cash flow of leading swine companies is improving, which may lead to higher dividend payouts in the future [1][15] - The current market conditions suggest that the swine industry is stabilizing, with a focus on maintaining reasonable breeding levels [22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is experiencing a slight increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery to support price stabilization [24] - The report highlights that the white-feathered chicken market is showing signs of recovery, with prices expected to improve as the consumption season approaches [24] - Leading poultry companies are anticipated to maintain strong profitability amid changing supply dynamics [24] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a promising growth area, with domestic brands gaining traction and expected to benefit from rising consumer sentiment [1][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for local pet food brands to capture market share, particularly in the high-end segment [1][16] - The performance of leading pet food companies is projected to remain strong, driven by product upgrades and direct sales strategies [20] Feed Sector - The feed sector is expected to benefit from deeper industrialization in livestock farming, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages [1][14] - The report indicates that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a strong cost support for livestock producers [1][14] - The anticipated tightening of supply-demand balance in the feed market is expected to lead to gradual price recovery [1][14] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that the price of live pigs was 11.25 yuan/kg at the end of November, down 10% month-on-month, while the price of 7kg piglets increased by 18% [2][22] - The report also highlights that corn prices have increased by 4% month-on-month, indicating a potential bottoming out in the market [2][22] - The overall agricultural sector is showing resilience, with the SW Agricultural Index outperforming the broader market [2][22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The industry is experiencing dual support for pig prices due to supply and demand factors, with expectations for continued pressure on large pig sales from individual farmers [4][13] - The overall trend indicates a reduction in breeding stock, with significant implications for the industry as losses in pig farming accelerate [26] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - There is significant short-term pressure on large pig sales from individual farmers, while large farming groups face less pressure to meet annual sales targets [4][13] - As of December 5, 2025, the average price of pigs nationwide is 11.19 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 4.40 yuan/kg [4][13] Weekly Perspective - The pig farming sector is facing losses, leading to an accelerated reduction in breeding stock. The price of pigs continues to decline, creating deeper losses for farmers [26] - Recommendations include companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [26] Market Performance (December 1-5) - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 1.86 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37% while the agricultural index fell by 1.49% [28][32] - Notable stock performances include Haodangjia (+16.15%), Xiwang Food (+10.26%), and Biological Shares (+9.66%) [28][35] Price Tracking (December 1-5) - The average price of pigs on December 5 is 11.20 yuan/kg, with a slight increase from the previous week [38] - The average price of piglets is 19.26 yuan/kg, also showing a week-on-week increase [38] - Other agricultural products such as white feather chicken and beef have seen price increases, with corn futures rising by 2.50% [38][49] Major Meat Import Volumes - In October 2025, pork imports totaled 70,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%, while chicken imports were 7,100 tons, down 72.1% [55][57] Feed Production - In October 2025, the total industrial feed production in China was 29.07 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.2% [57]