事件： 近期宠物行业相关公司如乖宝宠物、中宠股份、佩蒂股份等股价有所回调，依依股份股价表现相对较 强。 点评： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 农林牧渔行业 超配（维持） 国内市场仍有扩容空间 国产龙头仍有增长动力 宠物行业跟踪点评 2025 年 7 月 23 日 分析师：魏红梅（SAC 执业证书编号：S0340513040002） 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 跟 踪 点 评 行 证券研究报告风险等级及适当性匹配关系 | 低风险 | 宏观经济及政策、财经资讯、国债等方面的研究报告 | | --- | --- | | 中低风险 | 债券、货币市场基金、债券基金等方面的研究报告 | | 中风险 | 主板股票及基金、可转债等方面的研究报告，市场策略研究报告 | | 中高风险 | 创业板、科创板、北京证券交易所、新三板（含退市整理期）等板块的股票、基金、可转债等 | | | 方面的研究报告，港股股票、基金研究报告以及非上市公司的研究报告 | | 高风险 | ...

2025 年 07 月 21 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 证券分析师： 程一胜 S0350521070001 [Table_Title] 看好生猪长期价值重估机会 ——农林牧渔行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/07/18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 农林牧渔 | 2.9% | 5.5% | 9.5% | | 沪深 300 | 4.7% | 7.6% | 15.3% | 相关报告 《农林牧渔行业周报：宠物保持高景气度，生猪板 块布局底部（推荐）*农林牧渔*程一胜，熊子兴， 王思言》——2025-06-30 《农林牧渔行业周报：生猪或迎猪价和政策拐点叠 加，布局底部（推荐）*农林牧渔*程一胜，熊子兴， 王思言》——2025-06-09 《农林牧渔行业周报：618 宠物经济火热，国产品 牌强势崛起（推荐）*农林牧渔*程一胜，熊子兴， 王思言》——2025-05-26 《农林牧渔行业周报：宠物经济火热，长期看好国 产品牌发展（推荐）*农林牧渔*程一胜，熊子兴， 王思言》——2025-05-13 《农林牧渔 ...

行 业 及 产 业 2025 年 07 月 20 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱珺逸 (8621)23297818× zhujy@swsresearch.com 二季度能繁存栏环比微增， "反内卷"下重视优质猪企长期价值 看好 ——农林牧渔周观点（2025.7.14-2025.7.20） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 风险提示：生猪、肉鸡价格持续低迷；宠物食品自主品牌销售不及预期；养殖疫情爆发。 报 告 农林牧渔 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 - ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 0.1%，沪深 300 上涨 1.1%。个股涨幅前五名：生物股份（13.6%）、宏辉果 蔬（13.0%）、瑞普生物（9.5%）、朗源股份（8.2%）、ST 天山（7.3%）；跌幅前五名 ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 07 月 20 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《7 月 USDA 农产品报告下调全球玉 米、水稻、小麦产量，上调大豆产量 —行业点评报告》-2025.7.15 《生猪龙头 2025Q2 利润高增，犊牛 价格持续上行牛周期景气有支撑—行 业周报》-2025.7.13 《供给收缩与宏观催化共振，2025Q3 猪 价 存 在 强 支 撑 — 行 业 周 报 》- 2025.7.6 10 短期供给增加致猪价下滑，震荡消化后中枢或抬升 ——行业周报 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 王高展（分析师） | 朱本伦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | chenxueli@kysec.cn | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | zhubenlun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030001 | 证书编号：S0790525070003 | 证书编号：S0790124060020 | 周观察：短期供给 ...

农林牧渔 zhangmz@ccnew.com 13681931564 市场需求疲软，畜禽价格低迷 ——农林牧渔行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 《农林牧渔行业月报：畜禽价格低迷，宠物 食品 618 消费表现亮眼》 2025-06-23 《农林牧渔行业半年度策略：周期掘金，向 新而行》 2025-06-18 《农林牧渔行业月报：指数表现强势，宠物 出口数据维持快速增长》 2025-05-20 联系人：李智 投资要点： 风险提示：畜禽价格大幅波动，粮价大幅波动，动物疫病的发生；我 国生物育种商业化应用不及预期；食品安全问题，自然灾害事件。 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共15页 盈利预测和投资评级 | 公司简称 | 24EPS 25EPS | | 25PE | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 牧原股份 | 3.30 | 3.76 | 10.26 | 增持 | | 普莱柯 | 0.27 | 0.52 | 26.60 | 增持 | | 秋乐种业 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 58.8 ...

Group 1 - The company's self-owned brand sales performance is outstanding, with significant growth in domestic and overseas markets [2][3] - The company maintains a strong focus on R&D, with cumulative expenses reaching 227 million yuan over three years, leading to product innovation and market recognition [2] - The new factory in Thailand, with an investment of approximately 200 million yuan, will begin full production in the second half of this year, helping to mitigate tariff risks on overseas business [3] Group 2 - The investment recommendation is to maintain a "buy" rating with a target price of 119.7 yuan, based on projected EPS of 1.9/2.34/2.98 yuan for 2025-2027 [2] - The company ranks highly in various sales channels, with its brands, Maifudi and Fuleijiate, performing well in both online and offline markets [2] - The company is expected to achieve a valuation of 63x for 2025, reflecting its strong competitive position in the pet food industry [2]

Overview - The role of pets in families is evolving from animals to family members, leading to a significant increase in pet owners' focus on pet health and a willingness to purchase health products for pets [1][12] - The market for pet health products in China is projected to reach 12.65 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 15.73%, and over 80% of this market is attributed to dog and cat health products [1][12] Development Background - The increase in pet ownership is driven by demographic changes such as an aging population, rising divorce rates, and declining birth rates, leading to more people seeking companionship from pets [6][10] - Over 90% of pet owners now consider their pets as family members, which enhances their willingness to spend on pet care, thus driving the growth of the pet health product market [6][10] Industry Chain - The upstream of the pet health product industry includes suppliers of basic nutritional raw materials such as vitamins and minerals, as well as functional raw materials like glucosamine and probiotics [8] - The midstream involves the production and manufacturing of pet health products, while the downstream includes sales channels such as pet stores, veterinary clinics, and e-commerce platforms [8] Current Market Situation - The demand for pet health products is becoming more refined and personalized, with increasing interest in products targeting specific health functions such as joint protection and digestive care [1][12] - Companies are encouraged to develop more personalized products to meet the diverse needs of different pet breeds, ages, sizes, and health conditions [1][12] Competitive Landscape - The pet health product market in China is relatively concentrated, with key players including Shanghai Hongxing Pet Products Co., Ltd., Shenzhen Hongrui Biotechnology Co., Ltd., and others [15][17] - Notable companies like Guobao Pet Food Group Co., Ltd. reported a total revenue of 5.245 billion yuan in 2024, with health products contributing 0.46 billion yuan, accounting for 0.88% of total revenue [19] Future Trends - Functional health products such as those for joint health and immune support are expected to dominate the market, while personalized health products based on genetic testing and AI algorithms are anticipated to emerge [21] - There is a growing consumer preference for natural and organic ingredients in pet health products, aligning with concerns about food safety and health [21]

Investment Ratings - The report provides investment ratings for several companies in the agriculture sector, with "Buy-A" for Haida Group (002311.SZ), "Buy-B" for Shennong Development (002299.SZ) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ), and "Hold-A" for Guai Bao Pet (301498.SZ) and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891.SZ) [2] Core Insights - The agriculture sector has shown resilience, with the agricultural index outperforming the broader market, indicating potential investment opportunities [3][4] - The report highlights the cyclical nature of the pig farming industry, emphasizing that the current downturn may not necessarily lead to prolonged losses due to potential recovery in raw material costs and macro demand in 2025 [5][6] - Haida Group is identified as a key investment opportunity due to its strong fundamentals and potential growth in overseas feed business [4][5] Industry Performance - The agriculture sector's performance for the week of July 7-13 shows a 1.09% increase, with top-performing sub-industries including fruit and vegetable processing, meat chicken farming, and feed production [3][22] - The average price of live pigs in key provinces has decreased, with prices in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan at 14.35, 16.39, and 14.78 CNY/kg respectively, reflecting a decline of 3.37%, 6.56%, and 2.31% week-on-week [4][31] - The average pork price has slightly increased to 20.60 CNY/kg, while the average wholesale price of piglets has decreased to 26.00 CNY/kg, indicating mixed trends in the market [4][31] Company-Specific Analysis - Haida Group is expected to benefit from a recovery in the feed industry as raw material prices stabilize and the breeding sector improves [4][5] - Wens Foodstuff Group, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture are recommended for their potential to outperform market expectations as the pig farming industry enters a profitability cycle [5] - Guai Bao Pet and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. are highlighted for their strong brand positioning and growth potential in the pet food market, particularly in 2025 [6]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades Gambol from Neutral to Buy, with a revised target price (TP) of Rmb120, indicating a 25% upside from the closing price on July 10 [9][33]. Core Insights - The pet food industry is experiencing significant growth, with Gambol's domestic sales expected to rise by 32% year-on-year in 2Q25, while the overall market remains fragmented, presenting opportunities for market share gains [2][9]. - The report anticipates a 19% year-on-year growth in Gambol's topline for 2Q25, driven by strong domestic performance despite challenges in overseas markets due to tariffs [1][11]. - New product development and domestic margin expansion are critical for future growth, with Gambol's innovative product offerings expected to capture market share from long-tail brands [3][8]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - Gambol's stock price has declined by 25% since the downgrade to Neutral, but the report suggests this correction is overdone, providing a favorable entry point for investors [2]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit (NP) growth of -2% year-on-year in 2Q25, primarily due to increased expenses related to staff incentives and new factory depreciation [1][11]. Market Dynamics - The pet food market is characterized by a trend towards premiumization, with established brands like Gambol and China Pet Foods leading in sales growth [8][13]. - The report notes that long-tail brands represent 70% of the market share, indicating a potential for consolidation as consumers increasingly focus on food quality and functionality [2][9]. Financial Projections - For 2025E, Gambol's domestic revenue is projected to grow by 34% year-on-year, with a domestic net profit margin (NPM) expansion of 1.2 percentage points [32]. - The report revises the net income estimates for covered pet food companies by 0-5% to account for tariff impacts, while maintaining a positive outlook on Gambol and China Pet Foods [9][32].

Group 1: Core Views - The report suggests that the food and beverage industry is expected to see a valuation recovery as market sentiment improves, with a focus on low-priced leading companies in the liquor sector and structural opportunities in the food sector [2][7][10]. Group 2: Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is experiencing a phase of demand decline due to seasonal factors and regulatory impacts, leading to pressure on high-end liquor prices, while mass consumption remains stable [7][13]. - Major companies like Moutai are expected to maintain their performance due to strong brand positioning, while others are entering an adjustment phase, with varying adjustment speeds among companies [7][14]. - Q2 performance forecasts for major liquor companies indicate a range of revenue and profit changes, with Moutai expected to see a 9% increase in both revenue and profit [14][15][16]. Group 3: Food Sector - The food sector shows signs of recovery, with segments like beverages, snacks, and pet food experiencing upward trends, while beer and restaurant supply chains face structural challenges [21][24]. - The beverage industry remains vibrant with new product launches and a clear trend towards reduced sugar options, while competition intensifies [24][30]. - Dairy products are seeing mixed performance, with some segments like low-temperature dairy and cheese growing, while others face challenges [24][33]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading liquor companies with a safety margin for investment, as well as food companies that are expected to exceed mid-year performance expectations [10][28]. - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Nongfu Spring, Uni-President China, and Tianwei Foods, among others [10][28].