2025 年 10 月 20 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 程一胜 S0350521070001 chengys01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 熊子兴 S0350522100002 xiongzx@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 王思言 S0350524010001 wangsy02@ghzq.com.cn 投资要点: 生猪：生猪调控持续深化，看好板块价值重估机会 投资建议：生猪行业进入调控期以来，相关部门召开会议强化调控措施， 通过减少产能手段调控猪价，短期看由于下半年生猪出栏量或有增加以 及大猪库存或有消化，猪价依然面临下行压力，我们持续认为，调控猪 价是抗通缩的最有效方式之一，相关单位进行政策调控，最终是希望猪 价恢复合理区间，因此这一轮调控不太可能会很激烈，更可能是调控-加 码-修正，政策具有持续性。由于生猪行业产能调控，更多机会来自于低 成本带来的业绩兑现以及分红提升带来的价值重估，首推头部猪企牧原 股份、温氏股份，建议关注德康农牧、神农集团、巨星农牧。 家禽：禽板块基本面有望改善 投资建议：①白羽鸡引种端：据中国畜牧业协会数据，2025 年 9 月，祖 ...

证券之星消息，10月20日饲料板块较上一交易日下跌2.12%，海大集团领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3863.89，上涨0.63%。深证成指报收于12813.21，上涨0.98%。饲料板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002696 | 百洋股份 | 6.58 | 1.86% | 14.96万 | 9751.94万 | | 001366 | 播恩集团 | 12.47 | 1.80% | 1.65万 | 2052.20万 | | 000702 | 正虹科技 | 7.06 | 0.57% | 5.33万 | 3760.26万 | | 002548 | 金新农 | 4.75 | 0.42% | 20.92万 | 9948.57万 | | 002567 | 唐人神 | 4.79 | 0.42% | 16.51万 | 7898.80万 | | 001313 | 劃與廣 | 7.05 | 0.28% | 3.28万 | 2312.69万 | | 603363 | 傲农生物 | ...

Market Overview - The feed sector experienced a decline of 1.72% on October 16, with Lude Environment leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3916.23, up 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13086.41, down 0.25% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Lude Environment (688156) closed at 19.27, down 5.54% with a trading volume of 32,200 shares and a turnover of 63.1 million yuan [1] - Bangji Technology (603151) closed at 25.31, down 4.71% with a trading volume of 24,500 shares and a turnover of 63.1 million yuan [1] - Aonong Biological (603363) closed at 5.36, down 2.90% with a trading volume of 937,200 shares and a turnover of 5.16 million yuan [1] - Baiyang Co., Ltd. (002696) closed at 6.58, down 2.81% with a trading volume of 1,311,500 shares and a turnover of 205 million yuan [1] - Zhenghong Technology (000702) closed at 7.11, down 2.74% with a trading volume of 121,500 shares and a turnover of 86.7 million yuan [1] - Jinxinnong (002548) closed at 4.75, down 2.26% with a trading volume of 297,700 shares and a turnover of 144 million yuan [1] - Lusi Co., Ltd. (920419) closed at 18.08, down 2.22% with a trading volume of 13,400 shares and a turnover of 24.4 million yuan [1] - Guibao Pet (301498) closed at 92.70, down 1.90% with a trading volume of 13,300 shares and a turnover of 125 million yuan [1] - Haida Group (002311) closed at 60.71, down 1.89% with a trading volume of 64,500 shares and a turnover of 394 million yuan [1] - Tianma Technology (603668) closed at 15.20, down 1.87% with a trading volume of 196,100 shares and a turnover of 300 million yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The feed sector saw a net outflow of 101 million yuan from institutional investors and a net outflow of 38.49 million yuan from retail investors, while individual investors had a net inflow of 140 million yuan [1] - Specific stock capital flows include: - Tiankang Biological (002100) had a net inflow of 23.90 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 9.12 million yuan [2] - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891) had a net inflow of 4.99 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors experiencing a net outflow of 22.73 million yuan [2] - Lude Environment (688156) had a net inflow of 2.92 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 7.56 million yuan [2] - Haida Group (002311) had a net inflow of 2.44 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors experiencing a net outflow of 26.56 million yuan [2] - Other stocks like Bangji Technology (603151) and Petty Co., Ltd. (300673) also showed varying capital flows with net outflows from institutional and retail investors [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral outlook for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, with a focus on the performance of specific companies within the industry [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the performance of 22 key listed companies in the agricultural sector, with an expected 47% year-on-year drop in combined earnings for the first three quarters of 2025. However, certain segments, such as egg production and animal health, are expected to show notable growth [4][5]. - The pig farming sector is experiencing losses due to falling prices, with the average price of live pigs dropping to 13.9 yuan/kg, a 28% decrease year-on-year. This has led to a significant decline in profits for major pig farming companies [4][5]. - In the poultry sector, while white chicken prices are stabilizing, yellow chicken is seeing seasonal demand increases. The average price for commodity broiler chicks is reported at 2.67 yuan/chick, down 13% year-on-year [4]. - The animal health segment is witnessing a recovery in demand driven by improved cash flow for downstream customers, with a 6.73% increase in vaccine approvals from July to September 2025 [4]. - The pet food industry is maintaining high growth domestically, with online sales growth of 7% in Q3 2025, despite a decline in export performance due to tariffs [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Pig Farming - The average profit for self-bred and purchased pig farming is reported at 43.2 and -116.7 yuan per head respectively, indicating a significant disparity in profitability among companies [4][5]. - Major pig farming company Muyuan Foods is expected to report a 50% year-on-year decline in net profit for Q3 2025 [4]. Poultry Farming - The report notes a seasonal recovery in yellow chicken prices, while white chicken prices remain under pressure due to oversupply [4]. - The average price for commodity egg-laying chicks is reported at 3.24 yuan/chick, reflecting a 4% year-on-year decrease [4]. Animal Health - The demand for veterinary vaccines is recovering, with a notable increase in sales driven by improved cash flow in the farming sector [4]. - The prices of veterinary raw materials have increased, with prices for certain antibiotics rising by 34% and 26% year-on-year respectively [4]. Pet Food - Domestic pet food companies are expected to continue high growth rates, with specific companies like Guibao and Petty showing year-on-year profit increases of 2% and flat performance respectively [4][5].

关于公司第一期限制性股票激励计划 首次授予部分第一个归属期归属结果暨股份上市的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证本公告的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重要内容提示： 证券代码：301498 证券简称：乖宝宠物 公告编号：2025-053 乖宝宠物食品集团股份有限公司 本次归属股票上市流通安排：本次归属的限制性股票无其他限售安排， 股票上市后即可流通。 公司于2025年8月23日召开第二届董事会第十二次会议和第二届监事会第十 一次会议，审议通过了《关于第一期限制性股票激励计划第一个归属期归属条 件成就的议案》，近日，公司已办理完成了第一期限制性股票激励计划（以下 简称"本次激励计划"）限制性股票首次授予部分的第一个归属期股份归属登 记工作，现将有关事项说明如下： 一、本次激励计划实施情况概要 （一）本次激励计划概述 2024年7月24日，公司召开2024年第一次临时股东大会，审议通过了《关于 公司〈第一期限制性股票激励计划（草案）〉及其摘要的议案》，其主要内容 如下： 1、激励工具：限制性股票（第二类限制性股票）。 2、标的股票来源：向激励对象定向发行的本公司人民币A股普通股股票。 ...

10月15日，乖宝宠物盘中上涨2.02%，截至10:03，报93.35元/股，成交6021.83万元，换手率0.37%，总 市值373.44亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出240.48万元，特大单买入482.44万元，占比8.01%，卖出408.90万元，占 比6.79%；大单买入442.53万元，占比7.35%，卖出756.55万元，占比12.56%。 乖宝宠物今年以来股价涨19.96%，近5个交易日跌0.62%，近20日跌5.56%，近60日涨1.37%。 分红方面，乖宝宠物A股上市后累计派现3.68亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，乖宝宠物十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第三大流 通股东，持股1190.17万股，相比上期增加4.49万股。易方达创业板ETF（159915）位居第八大流通股 东，持股199.61万股，为新进股东。富国天益价值混合A/B（100020）位居第十大流通股东，持股 123.51万股，持股数量较上期不变。信澳星奕混合A（011188）、交银内需增长一年混合（010454）、 交银品质增长一年混合A（012582）、富国消费主题混合A（519915）退出十大 ...

Market Overview - The feed sector experienced a decline of 1.02% on October 14, with Zhongchong Co., Ltd. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3865.23, down 0.62%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12895.11, down 2.54% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Baiyang Co., Ltd. saw a significant increase of 9.97%, closing at 6.84, with a trading volume of 164,800 shares and a turnover of 110 million [1] - Other notable performers included Lude Environment (+3.39%), Tiankang Biological (+1.19%), and Tangrenshen (+0.42%) [1] - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. reported a decline of 5.82%, closing at 53.38, with a trading volume of 141,600 shares and a turnover of 760 million [2] - Aonong Biological and Tianma Technology also experienced declines of 2.18% and 1.75%, respectively [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The feed sector saw a net outflow of 183 million from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 185 million [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks showed that Baiyang Co., Ltd. had a net inflow of 36.87 million from main funds, while Tiankang Biological had a net inflow of 15.21 million [3] - Conversely, Zhongchong Co., Ltd. experienced a significant net outflow of 76 million from main funds [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The agriculture sector shows defensive value amid renewed US-China tariff disturbances, with the sector currently at a relatively low level, suggesting improved investment logic and a recommendation for increased allocation [5][14] - The pig farming sector is experiencing losses, with both pigs and piglets facing declining prices, leading to accelerated liquidation. The average price of pigs is reported at 11.24 yuan/kg, marking a year-low [15][34] - The beef and poultry sectors benefit from improved domestic demand and tariff disturbances, with beef prices at 66.04 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.41% and a year-on-year increase of 8.32% [22][19] - The seed and planting sector is positively impacted by the escalation of US-China agricultural product tariffs and domestic food security needs, with corn prices rising to 2304 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.54% since the beginning of the year [29][31] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The agriculture sector's defensive value is highlighted due to renewed US-China tariff disturbances, with the sector benefiting from tariff countermeasures and food security logic [5][14] Weekly Insights - The pig farming sector is facing significant losses, with prices continuing to decline, suggesting a potential golden opportunity for investment as liquidation accelerates [34][15] - Recommendations include companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others in the pig farming sector [34] Market Performance (10.6-10.10) - The agriculture index outperformed the market by 0.67 percentage points, with notable gains in stocks like Aonong Biological and Xuelong Biological [38][45] Price Tracking (10.6-10.10) - The average price of pigs was reported at 11.18 yuan/kg, down 1.08 yuan from the previous week, while the price of piglets was 18.72 yuan/kg, down 1.65 yuan [48][50] - The average price of yellow feathered chickens reached 13.80 yuan/kg, marking a new high for 2025 [22][49] Key News (10.6-10.10) - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a notice on promoting agricultural product consumption, aiming to enhance supply and market channels [46]

从资金流向上来看，当日饲料板块主力资金净流入2.1亿元，游资资金净流出9204.2万元，散户资金净流 出1.18亿元。饲料板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603363 傲农生物 | | 1.25亿 | 21.95% | -4285.39万 | -7.55% | -8179.88万 | -14.41% | | 002891 中宠股份 | | 1.00亿 | 16.21% | -5697.18万 | -9.22% | -4324.54万 | -7.00% | | 002100 天康生物 | | 6868.94万 | 11.89% | 734.41万 | 1.27% | -7603.35万 | -13.16% | | 002385 | 大北农 | 677.98万 | 2.02% | -499.73万 | -1.49% | -178.25万 | -0.53% | | 301498 乖 ...

行 业 及 产 业 2025 年 10 月 08 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱珺逸 (8621)23297818× zhujy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 十一猪价显著下跌，仔猪肥猪养殖同亏，关注产能去化进程 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数上涨 0.2%，沪深 300 上涨 2.0%。个股涨幅前五名：华绿生物（6.0%）、宏辉果蔬（4.1%）、万 辰集团（3.7%）、生物股份（3.2%）、海南橡胶（3.1%）。投资分析意见：重视生猪养殖"反内卷"进程，把握优质猪企 价值重估确定性。基本面+政策共同驱动下，生猪养殖行业产能去化节奏有望加快，关注板块左侧布局机会。十一期间行 业供给充裕，猪价跌速加快，肥猪与仔猪养殖均陷入亏损或将加快产能调减。向后展望，在亏损 ...