截至2025年12月25日 09:36，中证家居家电指数(931241)上涨0.15%，成分股飞科电器(603868)上涨 4.06%，青岛金王(002094)上涨3.64%，江苏雷利(300660)、松霖科技(603992)、万和电气(002543)等个股 跟涨。 家居家电ETF(515730)多空胶着。拉长时间看，截至2025年12月24日，家居家电ETF近1周累计上涨 0.69%。 消息面上，12月24日，北京市进一步优化调整住房限购政策。一是放宽非京籍家庭购房条件，购买五环 内商品住房的社保或个税缴纳年限由"3年"调减为"2年"，五环外由"2年"调减为"1年"。二是多子女家庭 五环内可多购买1套房。另外，商贷利率不再区分首套房和二套房，二套房公积金贷款最低首付比例下 调至25%。 （数据来源：wind，截至2025/11/25，行业分布为中证三级行业分类。） 永赢$家居家电ETF(515730)$紧密跟踪中证家居家电指数(931241.CSI)，精选家用电器和家居用品龙头上 市公司。通过投资这只基金，或可高效捕捉政策提振消费扩内需红利，充分分享优质家居家电企业的成 长收益，并能有效分散个股风险，布局整 ...

兴业证券指出，库存低位叠加需求回暖，继续看好家电出口链投资机会。美联储降息预期升温，强化美 国地产与耐用品需求修复预期，叠加渠道库存回落至低位，补库与需求共振，预计北美敞口大且海外有 产能的出口链标的有望受益。25Q1家电出口高增，25Q2受关税扰动回落，25Q3因高基数及海外转产增 速放缓。展望后续，26Q2起外销进入较低基数区间，预计26年外销景气优于内销并于Q2起加速修复。 考虑国补退坡及高基数，家电内销预计承压，趋势上前低后高；外销景气预计优于内销，受关税影响缓 和、美联储降息催化及欧美需求修复支撑。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 家电ETF（159996）跟踪的是家用电器指数（930697），该指数从市场中选取涉及白色家电、黑色家电 及厨房小家电等制造与销售业务的上市公司 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the home appliance and tool industry, particularly the export chain related to durable consumer goods, which is expected to benefit from the recovery of the U.S. real estate market and anticipated interest rate cuts [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **U.S. Economic Context**: The U.S. is facing economic uncertainty, exacerbated by concerns over employment data and potential interest rate cuts expected in Q4 2023 and 2024 [2][12]. - **Real Estate Market Recovery**: A rebound in the U.S. real estate market is evident, with proposals to cut capital gains tax to stimulate the sector, positively impacting the durable consumer goods industry, especially tools [2][12]. - **Export Dependency**: The tool industry is highly reliant on exports, with leading domestic companies generating over 60% of their sales from the U.S. market [1][3]. Company-Specific Insights - **Quanfeng Holdings**: - Significant expansion in Vietnam, expected to cover 60% of U.S. market demand. - Anticipated double-digit price increases in the second half of the year, providing strong profit support. - Valuation recovery from a low of 5 times earnings to a potential 12-15 times [4][5]. - **Techtronic Industries (创科)**: - Reported stable mid-year performance with double-digit growth. - Strong brand presence in the electric tools sector, with potential to return to a valuation of over 20 times [6]. - **Giant Technology (巨星科技)**: - Excellent overseas capacity layout, with expected performance growth post-resolution of Southeast Asia capacity bottlenecks. - Currently valued at 15 times, with potential recovery to 20 times [6]. - **TaoTao Vehicle Industry**: - Early investment in Vietnam production capacity, with strong sales of golf carts. - Performance has consistently exceeded expectations, with profit forecasts raised and market capitalization expected to exceed 20 billion [11]. Industry Trends - **Lawn Mower Robot Market**: - Competitive but with significant growth potential, led by companies like Ecovacs and追觅. - The market has maintained a growth rate of 55-60% over the past 8-9 years, with expectations for continued growth in 2025 [8]. - **Robotic Vacuum Cleaner Market**: - The competitive landscape is easing due to national subsidy policies and internal market dynamics. - Profit forecasts for leading companies like Ecovacs and Roborock are optimistic, with expected profits of 18-20 billion in 2025 and a potential increase to 27 billion in 2026 [10]. Additional Considerations - **Response to Tariffs**: Chinese export chain companies have shown resilience by quickly shifting production overseas to maintain performance despite U.S. tariffs. Profit forecasts have been adjusted downwards, but recovery is anticipated as the U.S. market stabilizes [12]. - **Technological Advantages**: Chinese companies possess significant advantages in technology for borderless products, which may mitigate the impact of tariffs [9].