Core Viewpoint - Recent changes in national subsidies for home appliances have emerged, with some regions implementing limits on the distribution of these subsidies, particularly in Jiangsu Province, while other areas like Shanghai continue to operate under existing policies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - Jiangsu Province has introduced a daily limit on national subsidies, which will be in effect until the end of the year, allowing consumers to claim subsidies online and offline with limited availability [1][2]. - In contrast, Shanghai has not made any adjustments to its subsidy policy, and it continues to operate as per the original plan, with no notifications of changes received [3]. - Other regions, such as Chongqing and parts of Guangdong, have reported that consumers can no longer access home appliance subsidies due to depletion of funds [2]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Anticipation of potential changes in subsidy policies has led to an increase in consumer activity in Shanghai, with more customers visiting stores to inquire about and purchase home appliances [1][3]. - A significant portion of consumers (71%) who have utilized the subsidies are motivated by the need to replace old appliances, indicating a focus on existing customer engagement [5]. Group 3: Market Trends - The home appliance market in China is expected to see a consumption peak in the second quarter of the year, driven by the upcoming "6·18 Mid-Year Promotion" and the optimization of subsidy funds [5][6]. - The total consumption of national subsidies is projected to reach approximately 2.1 trillion yuan, accounting for about 70% of the total subsidy scale of 3 trillion yuan [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The "limited allocation model" introduced in Jiangsu may serve as a template for future adjustments to national subsidy policies, focusing on resource optimization and high-quality development [7]. - The current subsidy distribution mechanism may evolve from a pre-allocation model based on redemption rates to a total pre-allocation model, improving cash flow for enterprises [7].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the home appliance sector, indicating a strong certainty in domestic demand growth and potential for export growth in emerging markets [7][40]. Core Insights - The adjustment of national subsidy policies aims to optimize resource allocation and enhance fund efficiency, guiding the industry towards high-quality development [3][14]. - The subsidy model is shifting from a "universal" approach to "precise control," with a pilot "quota allocation" model in Jiangsu expected to become a national standard [3][16]. - The current funding disbursement mechanism may transition from a pre-allocation based on reimbursement ratios to a "total pre-allocation" system, improving cash flow for enterprises [3][16]. - Online supervision is being strengthened to reduce arbitrage opportunities, with regions like Guangdong and Shanghai tightening cross-regional subsidies [3][16]. - The price system is expected to stabilize, with leading brands likely to initiate structural price increases as subsidy limits are imposed, leading to a more rational competitive environment [3][17]. Market and Sector Tracking - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 0.88%, while the Shenwan Home Appliance Index decreased by 1.4% [4][18]. - Key stock performers included Springlight Technology (+28.64%), Beilingsong (+21.17%), and Hesheng New Materials (+15.81%), while Midea Group (-4.25%), Hisense Visual (-3.98%), and Boss Electric (-3.74%) saw declines [4][18]. - Raw material prices showed a mixed trend, with copper prices up by 1.45% and aluminum prices down by 0.80% during the week [21][23]. Real Estate Data Tracking - In April 2025, the cumulative area of new residential construction was 131,639.8 thousand square meters, down 22.6% year-on-year [5][32]. - The cumulative area of residential construction was 4,319,367.5 thousand square meters, down 10.1% year-on-year [5][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: 1) Capitalizing on domestic demand and subsidy policies, particularly in the white goods sector [7][40]. 2) Investing in the black goods sector, which continues to show structural upgrade logic [7][40]. 3) Targeting the cleaning appliance segment, which remains promising in terms of growth [7][40].