证券研究报告 | 2026年03月03日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-03-02 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4182.59 | 14465.78 | 4728.66 | 15802.18 | 4174.69 | 1464.77 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.47 | -0.20 | 0.38 | -0.56 | -1.32 | -1.56 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 13458.92 | 16748.26 | 7526.81 | 5980.02 | 7384.02 | 793.48 | $$\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ ($\frac{\pi}{10}$) 宏观与策略 宏观专题:从价格（结构）的确定性看股债变化-2026 年一季度经济与市 场展望 固定收益专题研究:【资金晴雨表・月度观察】3 月利率展 ...

Group 1 - Guangzhou is launching a series of diverse promotional activities for the Spring Festival in 2026, aiming to create a comprehensive and enjoyable consumption experience for the public [1] - The government is implementing a national subsidy policy for home appliances and digital products, offering a 15% discount, with maximum subsidies of 500 yuan for digital products and 1500 yuan for home appliances [1] - A lucky draw for invoices will run until July 31, allowing consumers to win up to 800 yuan after making purchases and obtaining invoices [1] Group 2 - The Guangzhou government will distribute 50 million yuan in dining consumption vouchers before and after the Spring Festival, encouraging financial institutions and platform companies to offer additional commercial coupons [2]

Core Viewpoint - The evolution of the Spring Festival Gala sponsorship reflects the transformation of China's economy and consumer behavior over the past 40 years, showcasing the shift from material scarcity to technological innovation and brand storytelling [4][5]. Group 1: 1980s to Early 1990s - The Era of Material Scarcity - The transition from a planned economy to a market economy in the 1980s led to a scarcity of goods, making items like watches and bicycles symbols of wealth and status [6][7]. - The first brand to sponsor the Spring Festival Gala was Kambas watches in 1984, which used 3,000 quartz watches as payment, marking the beginning of brand sponsorship in the event [7][9]. - Kambas became a household name, with production reaching 1.26 million units by 1987 and over 2 million by 1991, highlighting the impact of the Gala on brand visibility and market demand [9][10]. Group 2: Mid-1990s to Early 2000s - The Rise of Consumerism - The late 1990s saw a surge in consumer spending, with households moving from basic necessities to larger purchases like televisions and refrigerators [12][14]. - In 1995, Shandong Kongfu Banquet Wine became the first "advertising king" of the Spring Festival Gala, paying 30.79 million yuan, initiating a trend among liquor companies [12][14]. - The sales of Qin Pool Wine skyrocketed from 180 million yuan in 1995 to 950 million yuan in 1996 after winning the sponsorship, demonstrating the immediate impact of Gala advertising [17]. Group 3: 2000s to 2010s - The Era of Brand Awareness - The early 2000s marked a shift towards household appliances as the main consumer focus, with Midea becoming a prominent sponsor, securing 16 sponsorships from 2003 to 2019 [18][20]. - The cost of advertising during the Gala increased significantly, with Midea's sponsorship rising from 6.8 million yuan in 2005 to 57.2 million yuan in 2011, reflecting the growing value of the event [20]. - Brands began to focus on storytelling and emotional connections with consumers, as seen with Haier and Gree, indicating a maturation of brand marketing strategies [21]. Group 4: Mid-2010s to Present - The Digital Economy and Technological Innovation - The rise of internet companies has transformed the Spring Festival Gala into a platform for digital engagement, with WeChat's "red envelope war" in 2015 significantly increasing viewer interaction [24][26]. - The Gala has become a battleground for tech giants, with platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou participating in interactive sponsorships, showcasing the shift towards a two-way communication model [29]. - The introduction of robots and AI technologies in recent Galas reflects China's transition from manufacturing to intelligent manufacturing, highlighting the importance of innovation in the economy [31].

今天傍晚到夜里：阴天有雨夹雪或小雪，东北风4~5级，阵风7级左右，夜里减小至3级 明天：阴天转多云，东北风转偏南风2~3级 气温：1℃~8℃ 明日，郑州市机动车不限行。 明天就是除夕了，假期模式已开启。此刻的你，或许已和家人围坐炉前，或许还在归家的列车上，但不管身在何处，心之所向皆是团圆。新春将至，祝大 家万事胜意、幸福安康！ 春节假期首日交通出行人数预计超2.8亿人次 预计2026年2月15日（春运第14天，农历腊月二十八），全社会跨区域人员流动量28592万人次，比2025年同期增长10.5%。 2月15日全国铁路预计发送旅客1395万人次 2月15日是春节假期第一天，全国铁路预计发送旅客1395万人次，计划加开旅客列车1568列。 2026年北京小客车指标配额公布 2月15日，北京市发布2026年小客车指标配额和配置比例，2026年北京市常规小客车指标配额为10万个，另外增发新能源指标8万个。 "最快女护士"张水华签约特步 2月15日，张水华再签运动品牌，成为该品牌签约跑者。这是她继2月10日，35岁生日当天签约某运动眼镜品牌后，短短数日内再获运动品牌青睐。 谷爱凌吐槽国际雪联安排不公平 2月14日在晋 ...

Group 1 - The provincial consumer protection committee has issued consumption tips for the 2026 Spring Festival, urging consumers to practice rational spending and avoid counterfeit products [1] - Consumers are advised to prioritize products that meet A-class safety standards when purchasing clothing and to check for fabric quality to avoid inferior items [1] - When selecting traditional crafts such as ceramics and metal decorations, consumers should ensure that edges are smooth and free of burrs, and purchase from authorized channels to avoid counterfeit goods [1] Group 2 - In the purchase of home appliances, consumers should clarify their core needs and focus on basic functionality and energy efficiency, avoiding overpriced items with limited practicality [2] - For pet care during the Spring Festival, consumers are encouraged to choose certified pet caregivers and to establish clear agreements regarding care frequency and fees to prevent disputes [2] - The consumer protection committee emphasizes the importance of retaining purchase receipts and provides resources for consumers to report disputes, ensuring the protection of their rights [2]

2月9日，深圳市七届人大七次会议开幕，《关于深圳市2025年预算执行情况和2026年预算草案的报告》 提请大会审查。聚焦深圳"钱袋子"，今年预算报告有何看点？财政支出如何惠民生、促发展？ 收入结构居于全国最优水平之列 深圳属于计划单列市，财政管理体制不同于一般城市，来源于深圳辖区的一般公共预算收入分中央级收 入和地方级收入。 《关于深圳市2025年预算执行情况和2026年预算草案的报告》显示，2025年，来源于深圳辖区的一般公 共预算收入达11302亿元，已连续五年超过1万亿元。其中，地方级收入4163.8亿元、增长6.4%。地方级 收入中，税收收入3510.6亿元、增长7.5%，非税收入653.1亿元、增长0.6%；税收占比84.3%，收入结构 居于全国最优水平之列。 值得关注的还有地方政府债务的情况。据介绍，经积极争取，财政部下达深圳市2025年地方政府债务限 额1063亿元，首破千亿元，已全部发行。其中，一般债券68亿元，专项债券995亿元。 据了解，近年来，深圳发行的地方政府债券以专项债券为主，专项债券在支持强基础、补短板、惠民 生、扩投资方面发挥了积极作用。此外，国家开展专项债券项目"自审自发"试点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chongqing government issued a notification aimed at stabilizing the real estate market through a series of integrated policy measures to promote healthy development and positive cycles in the housing industry [1] Group 1: Reducing Housing Costs - The notification introduces multiple subsidies and credit support policies to lower the burden of home purchases for residents, including one-time subsidies for families with multiple children and first-time homebuyers [2] - A 0.5% subsidy on the total transaction amount is provided for first-time home purchases in the central urban area, while talent home purchase vouchers are also available [2] - Housing provident fund loan policies are optimized to reduce the number of recognized housing units for families using the fund to purchase new homes [2] - Increased housing credit support is offered, allowing families without existing homes to benefit from first-home loan policies [2] Group 2: Encouraging "Sell Old Buy New" - The notification encourages the circulation of the second-hand housing market by providing subsidies for residents who sell their old homes and buy new ones within a year [3] - A 1% subsidy on the total transaction amount is available for those who sell one home and buy a new one, and a 1.5% subsidy for selling two small homes and purchasing a larger one [3] - Personal income tax refunds are offered for taxpayers who sell their homes and buy new ones within a year [3] Group 3: Focus on Quality Upgrades - The notification supports the development of high-quality residential projects, encouraging real estate developers to optimize designs and upgrade products [4] - Green building materials used in new residential projects are included in the calculation of green material application ratios, with financial support for projects meeting green building standards [4] - Consumers purchasing high-efficiency home appliances for new homes can receive a subsidy of 15% of the final sales price, capped at 1,500 yuan per item [4] Group 4: Revitalizing Existing Stock - The notification encourages the use of existing housing for rental purposes and supports financial institutions in providing loans for managing second-hand homes [6] - State-owned enterprises are guided to acquire existing homes for use as affordable housing, with subsidies provided for bulk purchases [6] - The minimum down payment for purchasing commercial properties is adjusted to 30% [6] Group 5: Optimizing Service Processes - The notification aims to enhance government services and improve transaction efficiency, including the promotion of online signing and regulatory services for second-hand homes [7] - A one-stop service channel for buying and selling homes is established to streamline the process [7] - Policies for urban renewal and the renovation of old housing are encouraged to improve living conditions [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company Snow Qi Electric emphasizes that its market value is influenced by macroeconomic conditions, industry environment, and market sentiment, and outlines strategies to enhance its intrinsic value and align it with market perception [2]. Group 1: Business Strategy - The company focuses on core business operations, enhancing intrinsic value through R&D innovation, technology upgrades, and business expansion [2]. - It is increasing investment in new product development and optimizing its R&D system and product layout, having acquired Wuliang Intelligent and Shengbang Electric, and is constructing an electronic technology park and a high-end smart home industrial park [2]. Group 2: Investor Relations - The company is strengthening communication with investors, adhering to relevant laws and regulations, and ensuring proper information disclosure to convey its business layout, operational highlights, and growth logic [2]. - It aims to actively return value to shareholders by strengthening its core business and establishing a regular dividend mechanism to enhance investor recognition and understanding of the company's value [2].

Core Insights - The implementation of the appliance trade-in and digital product subsidy policy has shown positive effects, with significant sales figures reported in January [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In January, sales of six categories of home appliances and four categories of digital and smart products exceeded 15 million units, generating nearly 59 billion yuan in sales [1] - The trade-in program for home appliances resulted in 6.813 million units sold, driving sales of 29.71 billion yuan, while the purchase of new digital and smart products reached 9.115 million units, contributing 29.21 billion yuan in sales [1] - Offline sales for both home appliance trade-ins and new digital product purchases accounted for nearly 80% of total sales, showing a year-on-year growth of approximately 20% [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The subsidy standard for home appliance trade-ins has been raised to first-level energy efficiency, accelerating the sales of high-performance appliances [1] - Online sales of first-level energy-efficient water heaters and televisions increased by 35.7% and 28.9% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The share of mid-to-high-end smartphone models in sales exceeded 70%, and smart glasses were included in the subsidy program for the first time, achieving sales of 7.197 million yuan [1] Group 3: Future Directions - The Ministry of Commerce plans to continue supporting the implementation of the trade-in and subsidy policies, focusing on enhancing support for offline retail and promoting the replacement of old products with new ones [1]

Group 1 - The Central Government's No. 1 Document for 2026 emphasizes the development of new agricultural productivity and the integration of artificial intelligence with agriculture, promoting applications of drones, IoT, and robotics [1] - The People's Bank of China announced a reverse repurchase operation of 800 billion yuan to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [2] - In January 2026, A-share new accounts reached 4.9158 million, a month-on-month increase of 89% and a year-on-year increase of 213% compared to January 2025 [3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce reported that the effects of the old-for-new appliance and digital product subsidy policies are becoming evident, with sales of 6 categories of home appliances and 4 categories of digital products exceeding 15 million units and sales revenue nearing 59 billion yuan in January [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in retail prices for gasoline and diesel by 205 yuan and 195 yuan per ton, respectively [5] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is considering including copper concentrate, which has high trade volume and liquidity, in its reserve scope [6] Group 3 - Some rumors regarding adjustments to the value-added tax rates for the gaming and financial sectors have been circulating, but experts and industry insiders have stated that these rumors lack authenticity [7] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to the price fluctuation limits for silver futures contracts to 19% and changed the margin requirements for maintaining positions to 20% [8] - Ningde Times announced a share buyback of 15.9908 million A-shares as of January 31, while Kweichow Moutai reported a buyback of 416,900 shares by the end of January 2026 [9] Group 4 - Han Jian He Shan announced plans to acquire 99.9978% of Xingfu New Materials, adding a PEEK business line [10] - Fulin Precision announced a capital increase in its subsidiary Jiangxi Shenghua in collaboration with Ningde Times [10] - Hongfu Han announced a contract worth 480 million yuan with Guangdong Quanxiang to provide robotics and other products [10] Group 5 - COMEX gold futures rose by 6.83% to $4,970.5 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 10.27% to $84.915 per ounce [13] - The U.S. Congress passed a funding bill for multiple federal departments, resolving a partial government shutdown that began on January 31 [14] - The U.S. military shot down an Iranian drone near the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea [16] Group 6 - WTI crude oil futures rose by 1.72% to $63.21 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 1.55% to $67.33 per barrel [17] - Major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.34%, Nasdaq down 1.43%, and S&P 500 down 0.83%, while precious metals saw gains [18] - AMD reported fourth-quarter revenue of $10.27 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34%, and a net profit of $2.52 billion, up 42% year-on-year [19]