Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the home appliance industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight decline in fund holdings in the home appliance sector, with a 2.6% allocation in actively managed equity funds for Q4 2025, down 0.2 percentage points from Q3 [2][4]. - December retail sales for home appliances showed a year-on-year decline of 18.7%, indicating ongoing pressure despite a high base in the previous year [2][4]. - The European Union has mandated registration for imports of robotic lawn mowers from China, with potential anti-dumping duties estimated between 21.4% and 57.4% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that national subsidies are expected to transition smoothly, and leading companies in both black and white appliances are recommended for their stable operations and high dividends, including Midea Group (13.1X PE), Haier Smart Home (11.4X), TCL Electronics (12.7X), and Hisense Visual (12.7X) [4]. - It emphasizes the core drivers of smart home appliances' overseas expansion, recommending leading robotic vacuum manufacturers Roborock (20.3X) and Ecovacs (22.5X) [4]. - Companies with stable performance and upward potential include Ninebot (19.9X), Anfu Technology (56.8X), Hailong Cold Chain (15.9X), and Beiding Co. (35.3X) [4]. - The report also notes that home appliance companies are diversifying into new areas, recommending Rongtai Health (21.3X) and Wanlong Magnetic Plastic (21.9X) [4]. Market Data - In December 2025, the production of home air conditioners was 14.782 million units, down 18.7% year-on-year, with domestic sales at 5.397 million units, down 26.7% [2][4]. - The total domestic sales for the year reached 10.521 million units, a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year, while total exports were 9.318 million units, down 3.4% [2][4]. - The overall retail sales for home appliances in December 2025 amounted to 97.1 billion yuan, with a cumulative annual total of 1,169.5 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.0% year-on-year increase [2][4].

11 月家电社零偏弱，26 年 1 月错期影响下空调排产反弹 11 月社会消费品零售总额当月值 43,898.0 亿元，同比+1.3%，较 10 月 2.9%的增速有所回落；25 下半年，社零增速整 体呈逐月放缓态势。11 月家电社零当月规模约 1000 亿元，同比-19.4%，较 10 月增速降幅进一步扩大；从月度节奏 看，家电社零增速自 6 月高位后持续回落，至 10 月转负、11 月继续走弱，主要系：1）去年国补拉动形成较高基数， 使今年同期对比压力更大；2）今年国补力度边际退坡，叠加前期需求一定程度前置，终端需求回落，从而拖累家电社 零同比明显下滑。 空调方面，错期影响下 26 年 1 月内需排产出现阶段性回升，但零售端仍偏弱。2025 年家用空调排产计划值年内呈"先 高后低"走势，进入 2026 年初排产反弹，奥维云网推总数据显示 1 月空调内销排产 884 万台同比+32.0%、出口排产 1113 万台同比+14.0%，出口端实现自 2025 年 5 月以来连续 7 个月负增长后的首次由负转正。本轮排产改善更多来自 节日错期下的企业排产前置（2026 年春节落于 2 月，备货与排产窗口前移、部分 ...