晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 16 日 核心结论 分析师 【银行】因势而谋，重构平衡：商业银行债券配置回顾与展望 预计 2026 年银行仍维持一定配债需求，力度或略强于今年，测算得 26E 银 行债券配置金额 9.19 万亿元，同比增速 5.4%。 【国防军工】国防军工行业 2026 年度投资策略：十五五内需筑基，军贸突 围、民用开拓 重点关注：（1）军机航发链建议关注：光启技术，航发动力，图南股份，隆 达股份、航亚科技；（2）红外技术军民两用，建议关注：高德红外，睿创微 纳；（3）激光武器具备较高的反无人机领域应用前景，建议关注：锐科激光； （4）地缘冲突不断加剧，建议关注军贸催化受益标的：中航沈飞、中航成 飞、航天南湖、国睿科技等；（5）军转民为军工企业带来长期α，建议关注： 陕西华达、高华科技、佰奥智能等。 【宏观】11 月经济数据点评：化解供强需弱矛盾需进一步扩大内需 11 月工业和服务业同比增速继续回落；消费增速回落，受高基数和"双十 一"拖累；投资跌幅仍然较大；房地产市场持续下跌。当前经济增长动能仍 然偏弱，尤其是内需仍然偏弱。化解供强需弱矛盾需进一步扩大内需。 【家用电器】家用 ...

中央经济工作会议，对 26 年经济工作部署时提到，坚持内需主导，建设强 大国内市场，同时优化"两新"政策实施，即优化大规模设备更新和消费品 以旧换新政策。目前多地国补、省补情况交替，消费者已形成一定折扣购买 习惯，若明年补贴政策延续，有助于国内家电市场平稳落地，保障龙头业绩 稳定性。 黑白电：白电经营稳健，强调配置价值 行业动态跟踪 | 家用电器 强调龙头配置价值，关注智能终端持续创新 家用电器行业周度跟踪 行业更新：国补定调，平稳落地 白 电 ： 1 ） 奥 维 发 布 11 月 数 据 ， 线 上 ： 冰 / 空 / 洗 销 额 分 别 同 比 -23.17%/-26.13%/-6.17%、销量分别-28.31%/-26.24%/-13.65%、均价分别 +7.17%/+0.15%/+8.66% ； 线 下 ： 冰 / 空 / 洗 销 额 分 别 同 比 -49.18%/-51.76%/-40.4%、销量分别-39.52%/-44.77%/-29.27%、均价分别 -16.78%/-12.96%/-16.34%。我们认为销量悲观预期已充分反映，行业逐渐 度过基数压力最大时段，关注后续企业动作；2）铜价成本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new wave of compliance challenges in cross-border e-commerce is driven by geopolitical tensions, with significant regulatory actions from the US and EU targeting Chinese products, marking the end of an era characterized by rapid growth based on price advantages and platform benefits [1] Group 1: Regulatory Environment - The US Congress has issued a "final ultimatum" to Amazon, requiring full disclosure of product origin information by November 28, including the percentage of US-made components and seller entity attributes [2] - The EU has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into Chinese robotic lawnmowers, citing systemic cost and price distortions in production, with a one-year investigation period [3] - Germany has announced a 23% VAT on all e-commerce packages from China, effective November 24, eliminating previous tax exemptions, with nearly 70% of international small packages entering Europe originating from China [3] Group 2: Underlying Causes - The tightening of regulations is influenced by rising trade protectionism, with countries focusing on domestic manufacturing and supply chain security post-pandemic [5] - The competition for supply chain dominance is intensifying, as Chinese cross-border e-commerce shifts from low-cost distribution to brand and localization strategies [5] - Data security concerns are emerging as new trade barriers, with US lawmakers emphasizing the need to identify whether sellers are US entities, reflecting deeper worries about data flow [5] Group 3: Impact on Chinese Sellers - The introduction of a 23% VAT in Germany significantly erodes profit margins for low-margin sellers, with an example showing a nearly 5 Euro tax increase on a 20 Euro product [7] - The potential for high anti-dumping duties from the EU could undermine the competitiveness of Chinese high-tech products, particularly robotic lawnmowers, which saw an 80.6% increase in exports to the EU in the first nine months of the year [7] - Compliance complexity is increasing, as Amazon's origin labeling requirements necessitate sellers to overhaul their supply chain data management systems, posing significant challenges for small and medium-sized sellers [7] Group 4: Strategic Solutions - A fundamental strategic shift is required for Chinese cross-border e-commerce, focusing on building brand value rather than competing solely on price [10] - Developing compliance capabilities should be viewed as a core competitive advantage, with the establishment of specialized compliance teams to monitor legal changes in target markets [10] - Diversifying market presence is crucial to mitigate risks associated with over-reliance on a single market, with opportunities in emerging markets and localized operations through overseas warehouses [10] - Embracing technological changes to reshape marketing strategies is essential, as AI-driven tools like Amazon's shopping assistant can significantly enhance conversion rates [10] - Building supply chain resilience through diversified production locations and partnerships with local firms can help balance cost and compliance needs [10] Group 5: Industry Evolution - The cross-border e-commerce sector is transitioning from a focus on quick profits to a more mature, detail-oriented approach, with compliance becoming a competitive edge [11] - Sellers who adapt quickly to the new regulatory environment may find opportunities for transformation, positioning themselves as leaders by prioritizing compliance and brand development [11]

继电动车后，中国机器人割草机近日又被欧盟贴上"倾销"标签，发起"反倾销"调查，这种做法忽视了中 国机器人割草机在技术、性能和环保优势方面对欧洲消费者的实际价值，这一不公正待遇引发了市场关 注。 11 月 19 日，欧盟委员会在《欧盟官方公报》C/2025/6235 号文件中发布公告，对原产于中国的机器人 割草机（robot lawn mowers）启动反倾销调查。调查对象界定为"无需直接人工控制、能够对草坪、公 园及运动场草坪进行修剪的电动机器人割草机"，无论是否包含其运作所必需的充电座、边界线或无线 导航设备，均纳入"被调查产品"的范围。有关调查将在公告发布一年，但不超过14个月内完成。 公告发布后，一位贸易法律专家指出，欧盟委员会此举是出于贸易保护主义考量，而非基于足够的事实 和法律依据，延续了欧盟近年来在涉华案件中广泛适用"显著扭曲"（significant distortions）条款的做 法。 反倾销调查站不住脚 "我们新一代智能割草机器人Segway Navimow X系列产品售价远低于传统人工割草一年的费用，为用户 节省了大量的割草成本。"一位九号公司公关经理告诉《人民日报》记者。就欧盟拟对割草 ...

1、 2025中国机器人大赛暨RoboCup机器人世界杯中国赛圆满落幕 10月19日下午，2025中国机器人大赛暨RoboCup机器人世界杯中国赛（中国机器人大赛赛区）在石家庄国 际会展中心顺利落下帷幕。本次大赛历时三天，汇聚了来自全国的300余所高校、近1700支队伍，超过50 00名选手，围绕机器人智能控制、系统集成与场景应用等方向展开激烈角逐，赛事整体注重学科交叉与实 战能力，强调机器人在智能制造、民生服务等场景中的实际应用价值。经过多轮比拼，最终共有58支队伍 荣获冠军，58支队伍获得亚军，58支队伍获得季军。参赛选手在比赛中展现出良好的工程素养、创新思维 和团队协作能力，多项技术方案体现出较高的实用潜力与推广价值。 2、 斗山机器人与大同合作实现农业机器人商业化 斗山机器人公司10月20日表示，已与农业机械公司大同签署谅解备忘录，将"共同开发设备上人工智能(A I)技术，并在农业机器人领域开展业务合作"。根据协议，两家公司同意在以下领域开展合作：开发针对智 能农场和户外农业环境优化的田间机器人；开发和商业化适用于非结构化农业环境的设备载人工智能；开 拓田间机器人的全球市场。两家公司的目标是开发安装在 ...