Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Urea: The domestic urea fundamentals face multiple factors such as rising supply, continuous realization of export demand, transfer of enterprise inventory to the middle - downstream and ports, and insufficient domestic demand support. After the Indian tender results are announced, the short - term market positive factors are exhausted, and the 01 contract will still run weakly. In the medium - term, there will be a game stage among various factors. In the long - term, the pressure of new production capacity in the industry is still high [4]. - Soda Ash: Recently, the changes in indicators such as supply, demand, and inventory of soda ash are relatively limited, and the fundamental driving force is insufficient. Subsequently, the warming of macro - sentiment and anti - involution themes will continue to boost market sentiment. The futures price shows obvious characteristics of a phased bottom, but currently does not have the momentum for a trend - based upward movement. It is recommended to continue to adopt a wide - range shock thinking [5]. - Glass: The supply - demand contradiction of glass has not been significantly reversed, and the industry has different expectations for the future. The glass factory has a certain price - holding mentality, and the short - term glass futures price has obvious characteristics of a phased bottom, but currently there is insufficient new driving force in the market. If external factors such as macro - warming and anti - involution are combined with the realization of peak - season demand, the glass futures price may be significantly boosted [6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market and Raw Material Situation in the Industrial Chain - Futures Prices: As of September 12, the weekly change of the urea main contract was - 3.2%, the soda ash main contract was + 0.16%, and the glass main contract was + 1.2% [13]. - Related Futures Varieties: This week, the trends of related varieties were differentiated, with urea being the weakest and glass being the strongest [15]. - Coal Prices: The prices of Qinhuangdao Youhun steam coal (5500), Shaanxi Yulin bituminous coal fines (Q5500), Yangquan anthracite washed small lumps, and Yangquan anthracite washed medium lumps showed little change from September 5 - 11 [19]. - LNG Prices: The LNG prices of some domestic regions such as Inner Mongolia Huineng and Inner Mongolia Xingsheng showed certain fluctuations from September 5 - 11 [23]. - Two - Alkali Raw Material Salt: This week, the raw salt price remained basically stable [24]. - Ammonia Prices: The price of Shandong synthetic ammonia decreased by 1.39% week - on - week from September 4 - 11 [27]. 2. Urea: Market Positive Factors Exhausted, Short - Term Weak Operation of the Futures Market - Spot Prices: This week, the urea spot market price showed a weak trend. The prices in Shandong and Henan decreased by 20 yuan/ton and 40 yuan/ton respectively week - on - week [30]. - Production: This week, the urea production level increased slightly, with the industry's operating rate rising by 1.23 percentage points to 79.34%. The operating rates of small and large - granular urea increased by 1.01 and 2.13 percentage points respectively [34][40]. - Output: This week, the daily urea output fluctuated around 180,000 tons, and the weekly output increased by 1.58% week - on - week [43][45]. - Inventory: This week, the urea enterprise inventory increased by 3.44% to 1.1327 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 11.52% to 549,400 tons [46]. - Downstream Demand: This week, the operating rate of melamine decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 55.38%, the operating rate of adhesives decreased by 2.27 percentage points to 48.75%, and the price of vehicle - use urea decreased significantly [58][62][65]. - International Market: The Indian tender results were announced, and the procurement quantity did not exceed expectations. The subsequent supply quantity from China needs to be monitored [71]. - Related Products: This week, the prices of some phosphate fertilizer products declined, and the potash fertilizer price remained stable [73]. 3. Soda Ash: Limited Changes in Supply and Demand, Focus on the Impact of External Factors - Spot Prices: This week, most of the soda ash spot quotations were stable, and individual regions still showed a downward trend. The mainstream average prices of light and heavy soda ash in some regions changed slightly week - on - week [82][85]. - Production: This week, the soda ash production level increased slightly, with the industry's operating rate rising by 1.07 percentage points to 87.29%. The weekly output increased by 1.25% to 761,100 tons [91][97]. - Inventory: This week, the soda ash enterprise inventory was 1.7975 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.35%. The enterprise inventory has been decreasing for three consecutive weeks, but the decrease was very limited [102][110]. - Import and Export: In July, China's soda ash export volume was 161,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.66% [111]. - Cost and Profit: This week, the cost center of soda ash continued to decline slightly [114]. 4. Glass: Cautious Industry Mentality, Focus on the Quality of Future Demand - Futures Prices: This week, the glass futures price showed a weak shock trend, and the closing price of the main 01 contract on Friday was 1,180 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.2% [6]. - Spot Prices: This week, the glass spot price rebounded locally, and the average price of the domestic float glass market on Friday was 1,164 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton from last Friday [6]. - Supply: This week, one production line of the glass industry produced finished products, and the supply level increased slightly. The daily melting volume in production as of Friday was 160,200 tons per day, an increase of 600 tons per day from last week [6]. - Inventory: This week, the glass enterprise inventory was 61.583 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.33%. The inventory fluctuation range was limited, and the de - stocking trend was not obvious [6]. - Demand: Currently, the glass demand has not shown the characteristics of the peak season, but the purchasing sentiment of the middle - downstream was acceptable this week, and the glass factory orders increased slightly. However, the demand is still differentiated between regions, and the terminal demand has not been substantially improved [6].