Workflow
对美出口降温
icon
Search documents
【高端制造】9月对美出口降温趋势延续,机床及工程机械出口边际表现亮眼——机械行业海关总署出口月报(十六)(黄帅斌/庄晓波)
光大证券研究· 2025-10-25 00:04
Group 1: Consumer Products - Exports of electric tools and lawn mowers from China to North America decreased by 18% and 3% respectively from January to September, showing a decline in growth rates compared to the previous months [4] - The overall impact of tariffs on exports to North America remains significant and continues to persist [4] Group 2: Capital Goods - Industrial - The global manufacturing PMI for September was 49.7%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [5] - Manufacturing in Asia continues to show stable expansion, while Africa's manufacturing expansion has improved compared to the previous month; however, recovery in the Americas and Europe remains relatively weak [5] - Exports from China to emerging regions such as Africa and Latin America are growing rapidly [5] Group 3: Capital Goods - Construction Machinery - From January to September, the cumulative export growth rate for major construction machinery remained in double digits, with excavators, tractors, and mining machinery showing year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 32%, and 24% respectively [6] - Potential risks include slower-than-expected global economic recovery, worsening global tariff conditions, and increased shipping tensions affecting global freight [6]
【高端制造】8月对美出口降温趋势延续,工程机械品类出口保持高景气度——机械行业海关总署出口月报(十五)(黄帅斌/庄晓波)
光大证券研究· 2025-09-25 23:06
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing decline in exports to the US, particularly in the consumer goods sector, while the engineering machinery category maintains a high level of export growth [4] Group 2 - In the consumer goods sector, which includes electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers, the US retail data for August showed a month-on-month growth rate of +0.6%, exceeding the expected +0.2%. However, from January to August, China's exports of electric tools and lawn mowers to North America decreased by 16% and 2% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a significant negative impact from tariffs [4] - In the capital goods sector, particularly industrial machinery, the global manufacturing PMI for August was 49.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, approaching the neutral line of 50. Manufacturing in Asia continues to show moderate growth, while Africa's manufacturing recovery has weakened slightly but remains in the expansion zone. Exports to emerging regions like Africa and Latin America from China have seen rapid growth [4] - In the capital goods sector focused on engineering machinery, the cumulative export growth rate for major engineering machinery from January to August remained in double digits, with excavators, tractors, and mining machinery showing year-on-year export growth rates of 25%, 30%, and 23%, respectively [4]