以下文章来源于中国宏观经济论坛 CMF ，作者梁明 中国宏观经济论坛 CMF . 创立于2006年，由中国人民大学国发院、经济学院、中诚信国际信用评级有限公司联合主办。依托人大经济学一级学科排名全国第一的优秀研究力量，诚 邀社会知名专家，集中从事中国宏观经济动态和重大经济问题研究，定期发布分析与预测报告。 文/ 商务部对外贸易研究所所长 梁明 "十五五"时期是中国式现代化建设承上启下的关键阶段，系统性、准确地 研判这一时期的全球化形势，显得格外重要。基于当前我们对"十五五"时 期全球化形势的深入研究，我将围绕全球化新形势、世界贸易增速是否低 于经济增速、"十五五"时期国际市场需求是否会出现明显放缓、中国经济 增长新动能以及相关政策建议等问题，进行分析与探讨 。 "十五五"时期的全球化形势，是机遇还是挑战？ 关于"十五五"时期的外部环境，我们的规划建议中已有清晰论述。在"十五五"时期，我们的发展既有有利的因素也有不利的环境。总体来看，我认为有利 的因素主要是两点：首先，新一轮科技革命和产业变革正在加速突破，这为全球经济增长提供了新的技术引擎；其次，我国运筹国际空间、塑造外部环境 有利因素的能力正在增强，这将为我 ...

机械设备行业 标配 （维持） 细分领域分化，关注三大主线 机械设备行业 2026 年上半年投资策略 投资要点： 2025 年 11 月 26 日 分析师：谢少威 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523010003 电话：0769-23320059 邮箱： xieshaowei@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 投 资 策 略 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 机械设备（申万）指数走势 ◼ 机械设备行业基本面回顾。截至2025年10月31日，SW机械设备行业1-10月区 间涨幅为55.20%，跑赢沪深300指数25.03pct，在申万行业中排名第五。机械 设备2025年前三季度实现营收和归母净利润分别同比增长6.11%、14.52%。毛 利率和净利率分别同比提升0.08pct、0.66pct。行业营收和归母净利润维持 增长，利润端增速快于收入端趋势延续，行业增收不增利情况持续好转。受 益于产品出海、成本及费用控制、产品 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 产品特性：消费品中电动工具、手动工具、割草机以欧美高端消费为主。 2025年1-10月，电动工具、手工工具、草坪割草机出口金额累计同比增速分别为-0.4%、-6%、37%，其中2025 年10月出口同比增速分别为-17%、-16%、-15%，增速环比变动-21pct、-16pct、-26pct。近年来，受全球关税 扰动等影响，越来越多企业在东南亚等地新增产能以满足海外订单，因此国内海关统计的机械出口金额同比有 所下降，同时，10月份消费品出口同比增速边际回落明显主要因同比高基数影响以及日历效应对出口数据造成 扰动，2025年10月工作日较2024年10月少1天，若按日均出口额看，10月电动工具、手工工具、草坪割草机出 口金额同比增速分别为-12%、-11%、-11%。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容 ...

点击注册小程序 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【金工】行业主题基金净值回撤，被动资金加仓各类宽基ETF——基金市场与ESG产品周报20251124 本周国内权益市场指数震荡下行，各类行业主题基金表现不佳，金融地产主题基金相对抗跌。不同投资范 围的ETF资金均呈现流入，各宽基主题ETF受被动资金显著加仓，TMT主题ETF资金净流入明显；主动偏 股基金仓位相较上周有所提升，主被动资金均存在加仓迹象。 （祁嫣然/马元心） 2025-11-24 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【钢铁】水泥、沥青开工率降至5年同期最低水平——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.11.17-11.23） （王招华/戴默） 2025-11-25 您可点击今日推送内容的第2条查看 【高端制造】同比高基数及日历 ...

2025 年 11 月 25 日 行业研究 同比高基数及日历效应拖累十月机械出口数据 ——机械行业海关总署出口月报（十七） 机械行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：黄帅斌 执业证书编号：S0930520080005 0755-23915357 huangshuaibin@ebscn.com 分析师：庄晓波 执业证书编号：S0930524070018 0755-25310400 zhuangxiaobo@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 24/11 25/02 25/05 25/08 机械行业 沪深300 资料来源：Wind 要点 消费品： 产品特性：消费品中电动工具、手动工具、割草机以欧美高端消费为主。 2025 年 1-10 月，电动工具、手工工具、草坪割草机出口金额累计同比增速分别为 -0.4%、-6%、37%，其中 2025 年 10 月出口同比增速分别为-17%、-16%、-15%， 增速环比变动-21pct、-16pct、-26pct。近年来，受全球关税扰动等影响，越来越 多企业在东南亚等地新增产能以满足海外订单，因此国内海关统计的机械 ...

Economic Overview - The A-share market has risen from 3350 points at the beginning of the year to around 4000 points, reflecting the real economic fundamentals, with technology and non-ferrous sectors performing well while consumption and coal sectors lagged [1] - Economic growth has been steady in the first three quarters, with the annual target remaining stable, but significant structural changes are occurring beneath the surface [3] Real Estate and Investment Trends - Real estate investment has declined for four consecutive years, with fixed asset investment experiencing its first decline on record, while exports and consumption have taken on a more significant role [3] - The adjustment in the real estate sector has led to a rationalization of housing prices, and new industries are emerging to support economic growth, with state-owned enterprises investing nearly 40% in strategic emerging industries like new energy and integrated circuits [3] Consumption and Export Dynamics - Core CPI has been rising, indicating a stable consumption market, while exports have shown unexpected growth despite a complex external environment, driven by diversified trade layouts [5] - ASEAN has been China's largest trading partner for five consecutive years, with over 90% of manufacturing exports going to this region, particularly in machine tools and auto parts [5] Price Trends and Corporate Profitability - The recent increase in CPI and the narrowing decline in PPI suggest an improvement in supply-demand relationships, with rising prices in industries like photovoltaic equipment and non-ferrous metal smelting, indicating a better profit environment for companies [7] - The best-performing non-ferrous sector is attributed to the continuous rise in gold prices, with the central bank increasing its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months, reaching 74.09 million ounces by the end of October [9] Sector Performance Insights - The communication and electronics sectors have surged due to the explosion of AI computing power and domestic substitution, exemplified by North Huachuang's net profit exceeding 5.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters [9] - Conversely, the consumption and coal sectors have underperformed due to low food prices affecting profitability and international commodity price declines putting pressure on traditional energy companies [10] Capital Flow and Market Dynamics - The continuous decline in 10-year treasury yields and bank deposit rates has lowered the opportunity cost of investing in the stock market, leading to increased capital inflows into equity funds and bank wealth management products [12] - A-share valuations remain reasonable compared to U.S. stocks, with attractive dividend yields, further drawing investor interest [12] Structural Market Trends - Companies like Laplace, a leader in photovoltaic equipment, have shown steady profit growth supported by N-type technology, indicating that market performance is based on solid fundamentals rather than mere speculation [14] - The structural market trends reflect the economic transition, with declining reliance on real estate, the rise of emerging industries, and optimized export patterns, all of which are mirrored in corporate profitability and capital flows [14] Future Outlook - Understanding the direction of economic transformation allows for better interpretation of stock market signals, with a focus on new productive forces, diversified exports, and technological advancements as key opportunities in a structural market [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in China's machine tool imports and exports in October 2025, indicating potential challenges in the industry [1] - In October 2025, the number of machine tool imports in China was 5,100 units, a year-on-year decrease of 44.1%, with an import value of 450 million USD, down 4.1% year-on-year [1] - The export figures for the same month showed that China exported 1.27 million machine tools, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%, while the export value was 1.002 billion USD, reflecting a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The article references several listed companies in the machine tool sector, including Shenyang Machine Tool (000410), Qinchuan Machine Tool (000837), and others, indicating a focus on key players in the industry [1] - The report cited is from Zhiyan Consulting, which provides a comprehensive analysis of the machine tool industry in China from 2026 to 2032, suggesting ongoing research and insights into market trends [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, emphasizing its expertise in providing in-depth industry research reports and tailored consulting services [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Changsha's import and export activities have shown steady growth in the first ten months of 2025, with total trade reaching 2334.1 billion yuan, a 1.9% increase year-on-year, and accounting for 53.4% of Hunan's total trade value [1] - Changsha's exports amounted to 1532.4 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.1%, while imports reached 801.7 billion yuan [1] - The number of foreign trade enterprises in Changsha exceeded 4300, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, with private enterprises contributing significantly to the trade stability [1] Group 2 - Exports of mechanical and electrical products from Changsha totaled 1046.9 billion yuan, a 9.2% increase, making up 68.3% of the city's total exports [2] - Key export categories included automobiles, electrical equipment, and audio-video devices, with respective export values of 208.6 billion yuan, 82.8 billion yuan, and 17.3 billion yuan, showing growth rates of 47.2%, 27.5%, and 16.2% [2] - The export of "new three types" products (electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and photovoltaic products) reached 131.3 billion yuan, a significant increase of 82.9% [2] Group 3 - Imports of mechanical and electrical products in Changsha were valued at 315.4 billion yuan, accounting for 39.3% of total imports [3] - Notable imports included integrated circuits and machine tools, with values of 214.9 billion yuan and 2.7 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 9% and 93% respectively [3] - The import of metal ores reached 212.9 billion yuan, showing a substantial increase of 64% [3]

Group 1 - The United States and Switzerland have reached a new tariff agreement, reducing tariffs from 39% to 15%, with Switzerland committing to invest approximately $200 billion in the U.S. by the end of 2028 [1][2] - The total investment includes commitments from Swiss pharmaceutical companies Roche ($50 billion) and Novartis ($23 billion), as well as investments from engineering group ABB and railway equipment manufacturer Stadler [1] - The agreement must be approved by the Swiss parliament and will subsequently undergo a national referendum, with the Swiss government emphasizing the need to lower costs for domestic companies [1][2] Group 2 - The tariff negotiations are critically important for Switzerland, as the U.S. is a major export market for Swiss goods such as watches, chocolate, pharmaceuticals, and machine tools [2] - The recent tariff crisis has led to a significant decline in Swiss technology exports to the U.S., with a reported drop of 14.2% in the third quarter compared to the previous year [1] - The economic impact of the tariffs has prompted discussions about Switzerland's neutral status and increased calls for strengthening relations with the European Union [2]

Group 1 - Switzerland will be able to export products to the US at a 1.5% tariff rate, similar to the EU, marking a victory for the Swiss economy [1] - Since August, Swiss exports to the US faced a 39% tariff, which was imposed by President Trump due to a significant trade deficit [1] - In return for the reduced tariffs, Switzerland has committed to investing a total of $200 billion in the US by 2028 [1] Group 2 - The new tariff will take effect "as soon as possible," and Swiss businesses are concerned about maintaining competitive parity with EU products [1] - The breakthrough in tariff negotiations is particularly important for the watchmaking, machinery, electrical, and metal processing industries [2] - Exports of Swiss machinery and electrical engineering products to the US fell by 14.2% year-on-year in Q3, with machine tool exports dropping by as much as 43% [2] - Watch exports to the US saw a year-on-year decline of approximately 20% in August and 56% in September [2] - The Swiss Mechanical and Electrical Engineering Association welcomed the agreement but cautioned that many factors still negatively impact the export outlook [2]