装备制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 25 日 [T分析师： able_Author 赵晓闯] 执业证书号：S1030511010004 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：donglyn@csco.com.cn 邮箱：zhaoxc@csco.com.cn 分析师：杨贵洲 执业证书号：S1030524060001 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：yanggz1@csco.com.cn 研究助理：董李延楠 电话：0755-83199599 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 7 月工程机械出口增速提升 [Table_ReportType]装备制造行业周报（8 月第 4 周） [Table_S 市场行情回顾 ummary] ： 上周 5 个交易日机械设备、电力设备及汽车行业指数涨跌幅 分别为+2.75%、+2.28%及+4.7%，在 31 个申万一级行业中排名 分别为第 17、20、7 位；同期沪深 300 涨跌幅为+4.18%。 行业观点： 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Repor ...

标准化地铁车厢、巨型工程装备、百余米长风电叶片……这些"巨无霸"产品的顺畅运输，是江苏制 造"造得好、运得出"的关键一环。近年来，全省大件运输审批量呈几何级暴增，2018年仅0.2万件， 2024年飙升至31.2万件。 过去，办理大件运输许可耗时费力。一场由省交通运输厅主导的"高效办成一件事"改革，正通过智 能化手段，将"多头跑""人工审"的堵点，转变为 "数据跑""系统批"的坦途，为全省制造业发展注入强劲 动能。 审批"秒办"，智能系统全国首创 7月5日晚7时，中车南京浦镇车辆有限公司车间，一列刚下生产线的地铁车厢在巨型液压平板车上 精准落位。承运企业南京金浦利轨道车辆装备有限公司员工金健在手机上轻点确认， 电子运输许可证 跃然屏上，全程耗时仅需数十秒。车队即刻启程，驶向苏州。 "零等待，高效率！"扬州市腾达物流有限公司总经理张善刚用6个字概括真实体验。"以往运输3辆 Ⅲ类大件烘干机，传统核查需等待4—5天，仅押车费每天每车就需1000元。若未能按时送达港口，单日 泊位费违约损失高达2万—5万美元，加之海轮舱位需提前预订，延误将导致巨额损失，因此必须预留一 周走程序。"张善刚激动地告诉记者，上个月，公司进入 ...

沪指本周累计涨3.49%，深证成指累计涨4.57%，创业板指累计涨5.85%。A股后市怎么走？看看机构怎 么说： ①中信证券：此轮行情并不是散户市 中信证券发文称，从各类资金情况来看，此轮行情持续到现在主要的发起者和推动者并非散户；事实上 本轮行情从起步到加速，核心线索都是围绕产业趋势和业绩；既然都是聪明的钱入场占主导地位，就不 能执迷于类比过往行情走势。随着2020~2021年发行的产品整体步入盈亏平衡区域，市场会有个新旧资 金接力的过程；未来行情的延续需要的是新的配置线索，而不是拘泥于"钱多"和流动性。配置上，建议 继续聚焦资源、创新药、游戏和军工，开始关注化工，逐步增配一些"反内卷+出海"品种，9月消费电子 板块也值得关注。 ②光大证券：市场中长期仍然有望持续上行，或以"轮动补涨"特征为主 光大证券研报指出，展望未来，市场仍然有望继续上行。目前来看，支撑股票市场上涨的逻辑并没有发 生变化，市场估值目前也较为合理，并未出现明显透支。此外，还有一些新的积极因素正在出现，如美 联储降息周期可能会开启、公募资金发行出现回暖。综合来看，市场中长期仍然有望持续上行。当前来 看，本轮行情或许会以"轮动补涨"特征为主， ...

Group 1: Market Trends - A-shares have shown strong performance since August, driven by improved global manufacturing sentiment and rising domestic demand[3] - The overall valuation of the TMT and military sectors has reached historical highs, indicating limited room for further expansion[4] - The shift from small-cap growth represented by the National Index 2000 to large-cap growth represented by the ChiNext Index is evident, reflecting accelerated industry rotation[4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing sector's profitability is expected to improve, with the lower limit of net profit margins confirmed by February 2025[4] - As of July, the electricity consumption in the secondary industry has shown a continuous recovery for five months, indicating a positive trend in production activity[4] - The average ROE for non-financial companies in the A-share market is projected to improve in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, suggesting a broadening of profit recovery across sectors[4] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors benefiting from overseas manufacturing recovery, such as industrial metals and capital goods, as they are expected to see increased demand[5] - The insurance sector is likely to benefit from capital returns reaching a bottom, alongside brokerage firms[5] - Opportunities in domestic demand-related sectors are emerging, particularly in food and beverage and electric equipment, as large-cap stocks begin to outperform[5] Group 4: Risks - There is a risk that domestic economic recovery may fall short of expectations, which could impact market performance[6] - A significant downturn in the global economy could also pose risks to the A-share market[6]

1、水暖卫浴陶瓷：厨卫产品及设备、卫浴洁具、水龙头、淋浴房、瓷砖、岩板、马赛克、陶瓷机械等 2、石材及机械设备：天然石、大理石、花岗岩、人造石、石英石、石材切割机、抛光、制造机械等 9、工程机械：挖掘机、装卸机、推土机、工程车辆及配件、工程钻探机械及掘进机、铲土运输机械、钢筋和预应力机械、沥青设备、轨道设备、混凝土机 械、装修机械、电动工具、桩工机械、路面机械、压实机械、工程起重机械和吊车、筑路和清运机械、镗床和挖掘设备、工程建设机械及配件、岩凿机械、 隧道挖掘机器、发动机和发电机、测量设备及仪器、检测维修设备及其配件、传输设备、机械手臂、轮胎、气液压及气动设备、道路、桥梁及隧道的设计和 建设、道路维护及修复机器及材料、设计、建设及修复工程技术和服务等 4、空调制冷：家用空调、中央空调、电风扇、空气处理设备、制冷蓄冷设备、通风设备等 5、清洁及维护设备：工业清洗、家用清洁、管路清洁、环卫设备、空气净化、环保技术、维修设备等 6、建筑钢材：钢结构、不锈钢、H型钢、螺纹钢、轴承钢、槽钢、钢管、钢板、线材、钢铁炉料等 7、玻璃及材料：建筑玻璃、家具玻璃、装潢玻璃及各类配件等 8、照明建材：照明设备、灯具配件及开关、 ...

2025 年 8 月 22 日 行业研究 7 月部分消费品对北美出口边际改善，工程机械品类出口保持高景气度 ——机械行业海关总署出口月报（十四） 机械行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：黄帅斌 执业证书编号：S0930520080005 0755-23915357 huangshuaibin@ebscn.com 分析师：陈佳宁 执业证书编号：S0930512120001 021-52523851 chenjianing@ebscn.com 分析师：汲萌 执业证书编号：S0930524010002 021-52523859 jimeng@ebscn.com 分析师：李佳琦 执业证书编号：S0930524070006 021-52523836 lijiaqi@ebscn.com 分析师：庄晓波 执业证书编号：S0930524070018 0755-25310400 zhuangxiaobo@ebscn.com 分析师：夏天宇 执业证书编号：S0930525070006 021-52523805 xiatianyu@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2 ...

2025 年 08 月 22 日 策略研究团队 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） 耿驰政（联系人） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 （1）科技成长+自主可控+军工：液冷、机器人、游戏、AI 应用、军工（导弹、 无人机、卫星、深海科技），此外关注与指数共振度较高的金融科技与券商板块。 （2）受益于"PPI 边际改善预期+部分低位补涨"的顺周期品种扩散：钢铁、化 工、有色金属、建材有望受益，保险、白酒、地产或存估值修复机会。 （3）具备反内卷弹性、更"广谱"方向：本轮反内卷的范围已超越传统周期品， 光伏、锂电、工程机械、医疗、港股恒生互联网等部分制造与成长方向同样具备 中期潜力。 gengchizheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125050007 证券化率指标—判断指数牛估值空间的一种参考 本轮行情与分子端盈利表现出现一定错位。我们在 2025 年 7 月 12 日发布的报告 《剖析市场突破的核心动力》中指出，从交易行为、资金流向到制度支持，多重 因素共同构筑了市场上行的内在基础。在宏观预期相对缺位的背景下，本轮行情 与以往典型的"指数牛"存在相似特 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in China's engineering machinery import and export trade, with a total trade value of 5.504 billion USD in July 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.1% [1] - In the first seven months of 2025, the total import and export trade value reached 35.076 billion USD, showing a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [1] - The import value for July 2025 was 266 million USD, which is a 15.9% increase compared to the previous year, while the export value was 5.238 billion USD, reflecting a 19.3% year-on-year growth [1] Group 2 - The export value in RMB for July 2025 was 37.538 billion CNY, marking a 20% increase year-on-year, and for the first seven months, the export value was 240.511 billion CNY, which is a 12% year-on-year growth [1] - The import amount for the first seven months of 2025 was 1.59 billion USD, with a year-on-year increase of 4.13% [1] - The overall positive trend in the engineering machinery sector indicates a robust demand and potential investment opportunities in the industry [1]

Summary of Mechanical Industry Research and Conference Call Industry Overview - The mechanical industry is characterized by high valuations, reflecting market expectations for growth. Investment requires in-depth analysis to identify companies with growth potential for value investment [1][2][3] - The industry can be categorized into long-cycle, short-cycle, and growth-oriented segments, each requiring different valuation methods such as PB, PE, or PS [1][3][5] Key Insights - **Midstream Equipment**: Historically focused on demand, but profit growth and elasticity are less than resource and consumer goods, limiting investment value. A return to supply-demand balance is necessary, with attention to competitive dynamics and overseas market expansion for revenue and profit growth [1][6][8] - **Production Elasticity**: The mechanical industry has high production elasticity, which limits price increase potential. In a competitive environment, market share is being redistributed, and the focus has shifted from new demand to stock renewal, particularly in the construction machinery sector [1][7][8] - **General Equipment**: Exhibits cyclical growth attributes, with higher investment success rates during upturns. A framework for tracking manufacturing includes macro (PMI, business investment) and mid-level data (forklift sales, Japanese machine tool orders) to assess manufacturing health [1][10][11] Valuation and Economic Indicators - Different sub-industries have distinct valuation approaches. Cyclical sub-industries typically follow PB or PE methods, while high-growth sectors like semiconductor equipment may use PS. Growth-oriented sectors rely on future profit forecasts [5][19] - Price adjustments for companies are influenced by exchange rate fluctuations and industrial gas prices, with oxygen prices serving as an economic barometer reflecting demand changes in steel and other industries [12][19] Competitive Landscape and Market Dynamics - The mechanical industry is experiencing changes in supply-demand relationships due to economic slowdowns, with a focus on competitive dynamics and market share stabilization. Overseas markets present significant growth opportunities, often two to three times larger than domestic markets [8][9][30] - The importance of large clients is emphasized, as they provide market recognition and can help companies break through market bottlenecks, enhancing performance certainty and valuation expectations [23][24] Sector-Specific Trends - **Engineering Machinery**: The sector's growth is driven by downstream demand from real estate, infrastructure, and urbanization. The shift from large projects to smaller, scattered projects is noted, with equipment renewal becoming a key driver [27][29] - **Data Analysis**: The engineering machinery sector can be analyzed using various data sources, including customs data and foreign financial reports, to understand market dynamics and risks [30][31] External Influences and Future Outlook - External factors such as national policies and demand from state-owned enterprises significantly influence company growth. Differentiated strategies can lead to rapid advancements in sectors like lithium batteries and laser technology [25][26] - The capacity ramp-up cycle affects profit release, with companies experiencing profit growth exceeding revenue growth during this phase [26] Conclusion - The mechanical industry presents a complex landscape with high growth potential, driven by technological advancements and changing market dynamics. Investors should focus on identifying companies with strong growth capabilities and adapting to evolving economic conditions to maximize investment value [20][21][37]

Group 1 - The report suggests an industry allocation strategy termed "4+1," focusing on technology growth, self-control, and military sectors, including liquid cooling, robotics, gaming, AI applications, and military technologies such as missiles, drones, satellites, and deep-sea technology. Additionally, it highlights the fintech and brokerage sectors due to their high correlation with indices [1] - The cyclical sectors benefiting from the expectation of marginal improvement in PPI and some low-level rebound include steel, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and building materials, with potential valuation recovery opportunities in insurance, liquor, and real estate [1] - The report identifies sectors with anti-involution elasticity and broader potential, indicating that the current anti-involution trend extends beyond traditional cyclical industries, with mid-term potential in solar energy, lithium batteries, engineering machinery, healthcare, and certain manufacturing and growth directions in Hong Kong's Hang Seng Internet [1] - Structural opportunities for overseas expansion are noted, particularly due to the easing of China-Europe trade relations, benefiting high-export categories like automobiles and wind power, as well as niche exports such as snacks [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of stable dividend stocks, gold, and optimized high-dividend assets for foundational investment [1]