证券研究报告·公司深度研究·工程机械 徐工机械（000425） 中国工程机械龙头，矿机成套打开第二增长 曲线 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 92,848 | 91,660 | 105,319 | 118,657 | 134,836 | | 同比（%） | (1.03) | (1.28) | 14.90 | 12.66 | 13.64 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,326 | 5,976 | 7,016 | 9,028 | 11,866 | | 同比（%） | 23.51 | 12.20 | 17.40 | 28.68 | 31.44 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.45 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.77 | 1.01 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 27.04 | 24.10 | 20.53 | 15.95 | 12.14 | [Table_Tag] [Tabl ...

小挖产线已进入全面爬坡阶段，海外市场持续高 增长；公司1月销售继续实现增长，出口业务连续 21年稳居行业首位——0223调研日报 2026/02/23 16:13 今日内容： 中联重科：小挖产线已进入全面爬坡阶段，海外市场持续高增长 【小挖产线已进入全面爬坡阶段】 公司2025年建成紧凑型机型新产线，涵盖小型挖机、滑移装载机、轮式挖掘机，该产线具备 全球领先的生产制造能力，已进入产能全面爬升阶段，小挖产品质量、一致性显著提升，制 造成本稳步下降，有效支撑公司小挖全球市场发展战略。 从行业情况来看，未来国内小挖销售量占挖机总销售量的比例预计会持续维持在高位，同时 小挖产品也受海外市场青睐。2026年公司将进一步加快推进小型挖机市场破局，打造土方机 械板块增长引擎。 【海外市场持续高增长】 2026年将重点布局西欧、澳洲等高端市场，研发更多符合当地法规和使用习惯的产品，上述 区域海外网点投入将对公司业绩提升提供增量支撑。除此以外，非洲、拉美等区域经过此前2- 3年持续投入已进入收获期，矿山开拓需求持续增长，中东、东南亚等区域基础设施建设需求 持续增长。 【农业机械获得行业客户特别关注】 全球农机市场规模约为1万亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - XCMG Group aims to strengthen its position in the mining machinery sector, targeting over 40 billion yuan by 2030, while also anticipating a recovery in the domestic market by 2026 and implementing strategies to enhance profit margins and expand overseas markets [2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Mining Machinery Business - XCMG has developed a comprehensive range of mining machinery products, including two-bridge mining trucks, excavators, electric shovels, articulated trucks, and wide-body dump trucks, positioning itself as a leading player in both domestic and global markets [2]. - The company is optimistic about future growth in the mining machinery sector, driven by increased demand for new energy minerals, advancements in mining technology, and solid technical reserves recognized by international clients [2]. Group 2: Domestic Market Outlook - The domestic engineering machinery market is showing positive signs, particularly in earth-moving machinery, which has seen consecutive months of positive sales [3]. - Factors such as the government's strategic initiatives, urbanization disparities, and the demand for equipment upgrades are expected to drive a recovery in the domestic market, with projections for continued growth into 2026 [3]. Group 3: Profit Margin Enhancement - XCMG plans to improve its profit margins through a strategy of "one stability, one reduction, and four adjustments," aiming for a year-on-year increase in gross margin [4]. - Specific measures include stabilizing prices, reducing costs across various sectors, and adjusting product, industry, market, and customer structures [4]. Group 4: Overseas Market Expansion - XCMG's marketing network spans over 190 countries, providing comprehensive product marketing and value chain services, with significant export growth anticipated [5]. - The company expects continued demand in overseas markets, driven by improved product quality, enhanced distribution channels, and accelerated localization strategies [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that XCMG Machinery is developing a comprehensive range of mining machinery products, including two-bridge mining trucks, excavators, electric shovels, articulated trucks, and wide-body dump trucks, to provide a complete solution for open-pit mining operations [1] - The company aims to achieve a target of over 40 billion by 2030 for its mining machinery segment, which includes both surface and underground mining equipment and spare parts, as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [1]

格隆汇2月12日丨中联重科(000157.SZ)披露投资者关系活动记录表显示，矿山机械坚持"面向高端、面 向全球、面向全生命周期价值"发展方向，公司提供矿挖+矿卡的整体化产品及服务解决方案。利用研 发优势开发多款新能源型产品，全生命周期成本优势明显，对标国际一线品牌能耗大幅降低。高端产品 研发实力方面，公司可以生产400吨以上矿挖，以及300吨以上的电传动自卸车。近几年公司矿山机械市 场增速优于行业。 ...

证券日报网2月12日讯 ，中联重科在接受调研者提问时表示，矿山机械坚持"面向高端、面向全球、面 向全生命周期价值"发展方向，公司提供矿挖+矿卡的整体化产品及服务解决方案。利用研发优势开发 多款新能源型产品，全生命周期成本优势明显，对标国际一线品牌能耗大幅降低。高端产品研发实力方 面，公司可以生产400吨以上矿挖，以及300吨以上的电传动自卸车。近几年公司矿山机械市场增速优于 行业。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The current upturn in the mining machinery industry is driven by geopolitical tensions and the demand for resource supply chain stability, rather than just commodity price increases and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The mining machinery industry's high prosperity is expected to continue due to increased capital expenditure from mining companies responding more quickly to price changes, influenced by geopolitical factors [2] - The global market share of Chinese mining machinery remains low, with only 19.21% of the top 50 global mining equipment manufacturers' sales attributed to Chinese companies, indicating significant room for growth [3] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - Chinese mining machinery has competitive advantages in terms of cost-effectiveness and customized equipment design, which positions it well in the context of a self-sufficient resource supply chain [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is expected to boost the overseas expansion of Chinese mining machinery, further increasing its market share as investments in energy and metal mining projects grow [4] - The current phase of the mining machinery industry's prosperity is expected to last longer, presenting investment opportunities, particularly in companies like XCMG Machinery, NPE Mining Machinery, SANY International, Shantui, Tongli, and Northern Heavy Industries [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [5] Core Viewpoints - The current upturn in the mining machinery sector is expected to be more sustained, presenting investment opportunities. The sector is currently in the first phase of a three-phase cycle, which includes bulk raw material development, energy extraction, and construction utilization. Companies involved in mining machinery are likely to benefit from this upward trend [3] - The ongoing geopolitical disturbances globally are expected to enhance the high prosperity of the mining machinery industry. Unlike previous cycles, the current upturn is driven by intensified competition for resources and a stronger demand for supply chain stability, leading to increased capital expenditures by mining companies [8] - The trend towards self-sufficiency in resource supply chains presents significant growth potential for domestic mining machinery manufacturers. Currently, Chinese mining machinery holds a relatively low global market share, with only 19.21% of the top 50 global mining equipment manufacturers' sales attributed to Chinese companies [8] - The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is anticipated to drive the export of Chinese mining machinery, further increasing its market share. Increased foreign investment in energy and metal mining projects under the BRI is expected to boost demand for related equipment [8] Summary by Sections - **Investment Suggestions and Targets**: The report identifies several companies that are expected to benefit from the mining machinery industry's upturn, including XCMG Machinery, NPE Mining Machinery, SANY International, Shantui, Tongli Co., and Northern Heavy Industries [3] - **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights that the mining machinery industry's current high prosperity is influenced by rising prices of bulk products and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, but emphasizes that the key factor is the geopolitical landscape and its impact on capital expenditures [8] - **Market Share Analysis**: The report notes that the top five global mining machinery companies are all foreign, with a combined sales figure of approximately $42.2 billion, indicating a significant opportunity for Chinese manufacturers to increase their market share through competitive advantages [8]

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities report indicates that Liugong's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase by 20% year-on-year in 2025, although impairment and exchange rate fluctuations will negatively impact performance [1] Company Summary - Liugong's mining machinery business is a key focus for the company's "14th Five-Year Plan," with plans to strengthen long-term strategic partnerships with large domestic and international mining enterprises [1] - The company aims to accelerate the deployment of ultra-large and intelligent mining products and comprehensive solutions, positioning mining machinery as the third core business alongside excavators and loaders [1] Industry Summary - Prices of core metals such as gold, silver, and copper are currently high, coupled with a continuous decline in global mining grades, leading to a substantial increase in demand for mining machinery equipment [1] - Due to tower crane impairments and investments in mining machinery, the short-term profit forecast for Liugong has been revised down to 1.6 billion, 1.98 billion, and 2.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, from previous estimates of 1.62 billion, 2.34 billion, and 2.79 billion yuan [1] - The current market capitalization corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 15, 12, and 9 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, while maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Key Points Summary Industry Overview - The mining machinery industry is expected to enter a new cycle of prosperity due to supply shortages and rising prices of metal commodities, influenced by anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][2] Company Recommendations XCMG Machinery - Leading in complete open-pit mining machinery, comparable to Caterpillar and Komatsu - Projected mining machinery revenue for 2025 is 13 billion (including spare parts), a year-on-year increase of 50% - Target for 2030 mining machinery revenue is 40 billion, with a CAGR of 25-30% [1] SANY International - Mining machinery accounts for 40% of total revenue - Overseas mining trucks are expected to contribute significantly to growth in 2026, with overseas mining machinery expected to exceed 50% of mining machinery business (6 billion) - Channel model adjustments are anticipated to enhance profitability; target for overseas mining machinery business in 2028 is 13 billion, aiming for over 100% growth in three years [1] Shantui - Leading in mining bulldozers, aiming to create a complete open-pit excavation solution - Expected sales of mining equipment to account for over 10% in 2025 [2] NPE Mining Machinery - Leading in wear-resistant parts for mineral processing, comparable to Meiyit Electric Steel - Projected mining machinery revenue for 2025 is 1 billion, with over 50% from overseas - Anticipated new product launches and overseas capacity expansion could lead to a new performance upturn, with a mid-term revenue target of 2 billion and profit target of 400 million by 2028 [2] New Sharp Co., Ltd. - Main business in hard alloys and rock drilling tools, comparable to Sandvik - Projected mining machinery revenue for 2025 is 1.8 billion, with 40% from overseas; recognized as a leading comprehensive solution provider for mining consumables [2] Nanmin Group - Main business in crushing and screening machinery, comparable to Metso/Sandvik - Projected mining machinery revenue for 2025 is 800 million, with 20% from overseas - Strategic changes include signing a ten-year operation contract for a large iron ore project and investing in a Zimbabwean gold mine, transitioning to an "equipment + operation" overseas model [2] Zhejiang Mining Co. - Main business in crushing and screening machinery, comparable to Metso/Sandvik - Projected mining machinery revenue for 2025 is 700 million, with 20% from overseas - Strategic changes include acquiring a lead-silver mine in Kazakhstan, initiating a dual-driven development phase of "mining machinery overseas + mining operation" [2]