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对美直接出口上行——实体经济图谱 2025年第19期【陈兴团队·财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-05-24 10:23
Group 1: Domestic Demand - New housing sales growth rate continues to narrow, while second-hand housing prices rise but sales decline [1] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have decreased, while wholesale sales have increased; the operating rate of semi-steel tires remains stable [1] - The tourism market shows marginal improvement, with hotel occupancy rates and revenue per available room increasing [1] Group 2: External Demand - Direct exports to the U.S. have rebounded, with container booking volumes from China to U.S. ports showing year-on-year growth [2][3] - The U.S. plans to impose a 50% tariff on European goods, which may benefit China's exports to Europe, particularly in the machinery sector [4] Group 3: Production - Weak terminal construction demand due to increased rainfall in southern regions, leading to a decline in steel prices and production [5] - Prices for PTA, polyester chips, and POY have continued to rise due to maintenance and rising oil prices, although inventory levels have slightly increased [6] Group 4: Prices - Gold prices have rebounded, while copper and crude oil prices are fluctuating within a range; domestic chemical products continue to rise, and steel prices have decreased [7] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties regarding U.S. tariff policies have supported gold prices, despite OPEC+ production increases [8] Group 5: Future Focus - Attention is directed towards corporate profit data and PMI data for further insights into economic conditions [9]