出口吞吐维持韧性，价格走势分化 华泰研究 2025 年 8 月 25 日│中国内地 张继强 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴靖*，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570523070006 wujing018437@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 证券研究报告 固收视角 吴宇航* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 李梓豪* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124060040 lizihao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 高频数据核心观点 8 月第三周，外需方面，吞吐量同比维持高位，但运价整体偏弱运行，且跌幅有所走阔。地产方面，新房成交基本持 平，二手房热度有所回落，两者同比延续负增，销售中枢不及前期，房价有待企稳，土地溢价率有所上行。生产端来 看，工业方面，货运量表现较好，煤炭价格继续上涨，生产维持韧性分化，焦化、地炼略有上行，纺 ...

Core Insights - Monthly commodity price forecast indicates oil prices in a fluctuating range, while copper and gold prices are expected to trend upwards [2] Domestic Demand - New housing and passenger vehicle sales growth rates have declined, while second-hand housing sales have rebounded; consumer electronics sales prices in August have shown a year-on-year decline [2] - In August, new housing sales saw a year-on-year decline, while second-hand housing sales increased but prices fell; the high base and hot weather contributed to a decrease in passenger vehicle sales growth, with retail sales declining and wholesale sales recovering [2] - Movie box office revenue and attendance have decreased but remain at historically high levels; tourism consumption continues to rise, with hotel occupancy rates increasing and revenue per available room up compared to last year [2] External Demand - The extension of the US-China tariff exemption for three months has been announced, while shipping volumes from China to the US continue to decline [3] - Overall exports are weakening, with a drop in CCFI shipping rates and a significant decrease in container throughput; however, the number of departing ships has increased [3] Production - The effects of capacity reduction are yet to be seen, with manufacturing employment reaching a new low [4] - Recent steel production has decreased due to maintenance and iron water transfer, while the profitability of sample steel mills has slightly declined but remains acceptable [4] - The average daily coal consumption of six major power generation groups has significantly increased, driving up coal prices [5] - The manufacturing employment index has increased month-on-month but shows a year-on-year decline, reaching a historical low [6] Prices - Tariff exemptions have suppressed gold prices; domestic rebar prices have increased, while cement and thermal coal prices continue to rise, and glass prices have decreased [6]

Domestic Demand - New housing and passenger car sales growth has declined, while second-hand housing sales have rebounded[2] - In August, new housing sales saw a year-on-year decline of 8%, while second-hand housing sales volume increased, but prices fell[2] - Retail sales of home appliances in August showed a downward trend in year-on-year growth[2] External Demand - The extension of tariff exemptions between China and the U.S. for three months has led to a continued decline in shipping volumes from China to the U.S.[2] - Overall exports are weakening, with the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) showing a decrease in shipping rates and a significant drop in container throughput[2] Production - Manufacturing employment index has reached a historical low, with a year-on-year decline continuing[2] - Steel production has decreased due to maintenance and operational adjustments, while rebar prices have started to rise[2] Prices - Tariff exemptions have suppressed gold prices, while domestic rebar prices have increased, and cement and coal prices continue to rise[2] - The geopolitical situation and rising U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have put downward pressure on oil prices[2] Risks - Potential policy changes and economic recovery not meeting expectations pose risks to the forecasts[2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the economic growth, inflation, and related price trends in multiple industries. It shows that steel inventory is accumulating faster, power plant daily consumption is rising moderately, and there are various changes in the prices of agricultural products, industrial products, and energy commodities [1][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Economic Growth: Faster Accumulation of Steel Inventory 1.1 Production: Moderate Increase in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption increased moderately. On August 5, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generation groups was 89.0 tons, up 0.9% from July 29. On August 1, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 223.1 tons, up 0.3% from July 24 [5][12]. - Blast furnace operating rate fluctuated at a high level. On August 1, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.5%, unchanged from July 25; the capacity utilization rate was 90.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from July 25. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 93.3%, up 1.3 percentage points from July 25 [15]. - Tire operating rate declined slightly. On July 31, the operating rate of truck full - steel tires was 61.1%, down 3.9 percentage points from July 24; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 74.5%, down 1.4 percentage points from July 24. The operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was weakly stable [17]. 1.2 Demand: Faster Accumulation of Steel Inventory - New home sales in 30 cities turned negative month - on - month. From August 1 - 5, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 162,000 square meters, down 20.1% from July, 21.2% from August last year, and 40.6% from August 2023 [23]. - The auto market retail was stable and relatively strong. In July, retail sales increased by 7% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 12% year - on - year [24]. - Steel prices corrected. On August 5, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil changed by - 2.3%, - 2.0%, - 1.4%, and + 0.4% respectively compared with July 29 [5][31]. - Cement prices declined at a low level. On August 5, the national cement price index fell 0.6% from July 29. The cement prices in East China and the Yangtze River region fell 1.3% and 0.2% respectively [32]. - Glass prices fell further. On August 5, the active glass futures contract price was 1,073 yuan/ton, down 9.2% from July 29 [36]. - The container shipping freight index continued to decline. On August 1, the CCFI index decreased by 2.3% and the SCFI index decreased by 2.6% compared with July 25 [38]. 2. Inflation: Agricultural Product Price Index at the Second - Lowest Level in the Same Period of the Past 5 Years 2.1 CPI: Agricultural Product Price Index at the Second - Lowest Level in the Same Period of the Past 5 Years - Pork prices remained weak. On August 5, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.3 yuan/kg, down 0.8% from July 29. In August, the average wholesale price of pork decreased month - on - month and the year - on - year decline widened [45]. - The agricultural product price index was at the second - lowest level in the same period of the past 5 years. On August 5, the agricultural product wholesale price index rose 0.7% from July 29. By variety, vegetables (+2.5%) > chicken (+0.9%) > beef (+0.4%) > pork (-0.8%) > eggs (-1.0%) > mutton (-1.1%) > fruits (-2.4%) [49]. 2.2 PPI: Oil Price Decline - Oil prices declined. On August 5, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 69.6 and 65.2 dollars/barrel respectively, down 2.7% and 5.9% from July 29 [54]. - Copper and aluminum prices fell. On August 5, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 1.4% and 1.6% respectively compared with July 29 [58]. - Most industrial product prices rose. Since August, most industrial product prices increased month - on - month, and most of them increased year - on - year. The prices of cement and glass decreased month - on - month, while other industrial products generally increased [62].

Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - Gold and copper prices are experiencing slight upward trends, while oil prices are also on the rise [1][11] - The recent trade agreement between the US and Japan may impact commodity prices positively, particularly for gold [11][6] Group 2: Consumption Trends - New home sales are seeing an expanded decline, while used car sales are stabilizing; however, tourism consumption remains strong [2][3] - The average selling price of home appliances has shown mixed performance year-on-year, with some categories increasing and others decreasing [3] Group 3: Foreign Trade Developments - Export activities are slightly weakening, with a decrease in container shipping rates and a drop in scheduled container bookings from China to the US [5][4] - The US and Japan have reached a trade agreement that reduces tariffs from 25% to 15%, which may influence trade dynamics in the region [6] Group 4: Production Insights - Steel prices continue to rise, supported by market sentiment and cost factors, with steel mill profitability improving [9][8] - The glass market is showing signs of improvement, although downstream demand remains weak, limiting price increases [10] Group 5: Price Movements - Domestic pork wholesale prices have risen for three consecutive weeks, while prices for rebar and thermal coal continue to increase [11] - The average occupancy rate of hotels and the average daily rate per available room are both on the rise, indicating a robust tourism sector [3]

Group 1 - The Chinese automotive market is currently characterized by intense competition and significant changes, with major players like BYD, Geely, Great Wall, and Chery dominating the landscape [1] - New Weima Automotive has announced a revival plan, including strategies such as replacing old cars for existing customers, purchasing for ride-hailing services, and expanding overseas, with support from local governments [1][2] - Weima aims to resume production of the EX5 and E.5 models by September 2025, targeting annual sales of 10,000 units initially, with plans to increase to 100,000 units by 2029 and achieve revenue of 120 billion by 2030 [2] Group 2 - Geely Holding Group has signed a merger agreement with Zeekr Intelligent Technology, indicating a strategic move to consolidate its automotive business and enhance innovation and profitability [4][6] - The competitive landscape has led to significant price reductions, such as Jaguar's XEL model being offered at a 52% discount, highlighting the pressure on both domestic and foreign automakers [6] - Faraday Future has secured a financing agreement of approximately $105 million, which will be used to accelerate the development and delivery of new models, despite skepticism about its past performance [8][10]

Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - The article predicts that gold and copper prices are experiencing fluctuations upward, while oil prices are on the rise [1] - The gold price has recently declined due to a rebound in June CPI data, a decrease in interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, and a strengthening dollar index [12] - The prices of major commodities such as rebar and thermal coal continue to rise, while the price of cement is on a downward trend [11] Group 2: Consumer Market Analysis - New home sales are experiencing an expanded decline, while the sales of used cars are slightly recovering, and the average price of home appliances has mostly decreased year-on-year [3] - Service consumption shows a mixed performance, with a slight increase in foot traffic in commercial areas, but a decline in movie box office revenues [4] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles are declining, with wholesale sales increasing, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3] Group 3: Foreign Trade Insights - Export activities are showing signs of weakness, with a decrease in the growth rate of departing ships' cargo weight and a decline in export container freight rates [6] - The shipping volume from China to the U.S. has increased, while U.S. retailers and wholesalers are experiencing a year-on-year decline in inventory levels [7][6] Group 4: Production Trends - The production of rebar is decreasing, and inventory levels are continuing to drop, leading to a rise in prices due to market sentiment and cost support [9] - High temperatures are increasing daily coal consumption at power plants, which is positively impacting market sentiment and leading to a rise in coal prices [10] Group 5: Price Movements - The article notes that the prices of various commodities have shown a decline recently, with specific mention of the continuous rise in domestic pork wholesale prices and the recovery of glass prices [11] - The article highlights the fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly the stability of copper and oil prices amidst geopolitical influences [12]

Consumption - Consumer goods consumption remains stable, with automotive sales showing a decline compared to the previous week, and a year-on-year growth rate also decreasing[6] - Service consumption is affected by weather conditions, with travel, cinema, and amusement park attendance showing weak performance[6] - Food and beverage prices have rebounded, but the year-on-year decline in agricultural product prices is still expanding[6] Investment - Special bond issuance accelerated, with a total of 2.4 trillion yuan issued by July 12, 2025, and 228.29 billion yuan in the first two weeks of July[16] - New housing sales in 30 cities have seen a seasonal decline, with a year-on-year drop narrowing from 22.2% to 20.0%[16] - The land market is cooling, with land transaction area decreasing and premium rates dropping to 4.88%[16] Trade - Import growth from South Korea to China has slowed to 2.2%, while Vietnam's export growth remains strong at 19.3%[22] - Port operations are slowing down, with a decline in the number of ships and cargo throughput at major ports[22] - Export freight rates have decreased by 2.2% compared to the previous week[22] Production - Overall production is stable, with electricity consumption rising due to high temperatures, and traditional industries like steel and petrochemicals performing steadily[28] - The photovoltaic sector shows marginal recovery, while the automotive industry also experiences slight improvements[28] Inventory - Construction materials are undergoing destocking, with coal inventories at ports decreasing and remaining at average levels for the same period[41] - The PTA industry chain shows a divergence in inventory trends, with upstream destocking and downstream restocking continuing[41] Prices - Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are both showing marginal increases, with transportation and communication being major contributors to price rises[44] - Prices of pork and vegetables have rebounded, while logistics costs continue to decline[44] Liquidity - The US dollar index has risen by 89 basis points, influenced by strong US employment data, with the dollar to yuan exchange rate increasing from 7.165 to 7.171[46] - Funding rates have slightly increased, with R007 and DR007 rising by 2 and 5 basis points respectively[46]

Group 1: Domestic Demand - New housing and passenger vehicle sales are recovering, while second-hand housing remains weak; the average sales price of home appliances has mostly declined year-on-year [3] - Post-holiday service consumption has cooled down, with movie box office revenues declining and hotel revenues per available room continuing to drop [4] - The retail of passenger vehicles has turned from decline to growth, while wholesale has seen a decrease; the operating rate of semi-steel tires has rebounded [3] Group 2: External Demand - The intensity of "export grabbing" is weakening, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on steel household appliances [5] - High-frequency export indicators in June have all declined, indicating an overall slowdown in exports [6] - Concerns over the expiration of reciprocal tariffs in July have led to a decrease in container bookings to the U.S. from China [7] Group 3: Production - The manufacturing sector is showing clear signs of off-season characteristics, with employment in manufacturing reaching a new low [9] - The operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces have continued to decline, with rebar production decreasing and steel prices showing weak fluctuations [10] - The blue-collar employment index in manufacturing has been below last year's levels for six consecutive weeks, reaching a historical low [11] Group 4: Prices - Prices of major commodities have generally rebounded; domestic cement and rebar prices have increased, while glass and thermal coal prices have continued to decline [12] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, raising concerns about oil supply disruptions and pushing oil prices up significantly [13] - Geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. tariff policies have increased global uncertainty, driving gold prices to fluctuate upwards [14]

Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - The article predicts that gold will experience range-bound fluctuations, while copper and oil are expected to trend upwards [1][13]. - Uncertainties in geopolitical negotiations, such as those involving the US and Iran, are contributing to the rebound in oil prices from their lows [13]. Group 2: Domestic Demand - New home sales, second-hand home sales, and passenger car sales have all declined, while the average monthly sales price of home appliances has shown a mixed trend with more increases than decreases year-on-year [3]. - During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, domestic travel and spending increased by 5.7% and 5.9% year-on-year, respectively, with box office revenue reaching 460 million yuan, a 33.3% increase [4]. Group 3: External Demand - Export growth has generally slowed, with June showing a decline in high-frequency export indicators and shipping rates [6]. - Container arrivals from China to the US have shifted from an increase to a decrease, indicating reduced transshipment activity [7]. - South Korea's exports fell in May, particularly in steel and petroleum products [8]. Group 4: Production - Demand for steel is weak due to the off-season, leading to a decrease in production rates and prices [10]. - As summer approaches, coal and electricity demand may increase, although recent weather conditions have led to a temporary decline in coal consumption [11]. Group 5: Price Trends - Prices for major commodities have generally rebounded, while domestic prices for steel, glass, coal, and cement continue to decline [12]. - The article notes that the market's concerns over copper tariffs are supporting copper prices as they trend upwards [13].