出口吞吐维持韧性，价格走势分化 华泰研究 2025 年 8 月 25 日│中国内地 张继强 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴靖*，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570523070006 wujing018437@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 证券研究报告 固收视角 吴宇航* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 李梓豪* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124060040 lizihao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 高频数据核心观点 8 月第三周，外需方面，吞吐量同比维持高位，但运价整体偏弱运行，且跌幅有所走阔。地产方面，新房成交基本持 平，二手房热度有所回落，两者同比延续负增，销售中枢不及前期，房价有待企稳，土地溢价率有所上行。生产端来 看，工业方面，货运量表现较好，煤炭价格继续上涨，生产维持韧性分化，焦化、地炼略有上行，纺 ...

Revenue Insights - In July, general public budget revenue reached 2.03 trillion, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, the first positive growth since the beginning of the year[3] - Monthly revenue growth rebounded significantly by 3.0 percentage points to a new high of 2.6%[3] - Tax revenue increased by 4.0 percentage points to 5.0%, the highest monthly figure since December of the previous year[3] Tax Contributions - The contribution of stamp duty saw a notable improvement, significantly influenced by favorable capital market performance in July[3] - Non-tax revenue continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 12.9%, exacerbating the overall revenue growth pressure[3] - Value-added tax contribution fell by 0.1 percentage points, highlighting ongoing domestic demand weakness and low inflation impact on corporate revenues[3] Fiscal Expenditure and Gaps - Fiscal expenditure in July rose by 2.7 percentage points to 3.0%, with most major expenditure areas showing varying degrees of increase[12] - The budget revenue-expenditure gap narrowed slightly to 2.49 trillion, but remains substantial, necessitating continued government bond financing[12] - Cumulative fiscal deficit from January to July expanded by 1.83 trillion, with government debt financing reaching 67.1% of the annual plan, significantly higher than the previous two years[26] Real Estate and Land Revenue - Government fund budget revenue fell sharply by 11.9% year-on-year to 8.9%, primarily due to a 14.7% drop in land transfer revenue[18] - The contribution of land transfer revenue to government fund budget revenue decreased by 11.1 percentage points to 5.3%[18] - The real estate market remains unstable, with significant imbalances in housing price-to-income ratios in major cities, affecting land market activity[18] Future Outlook - If domestic and external demand continues to decline, there is a pressing need for the central government to adopt a more aggressive fiscal expansion strategy[26] - The potential impact of new tariffs from the U.S. on exports necessitates ongoing monitoring of economic indicators[26] - The overall economic environment suggests that substantial improvements in fiscal revenue are unlikely in the coming months[3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively for three consecutive months, indicating a stable monetary policy environment amid economic fluctuations [1] Group 1: Loan Prime Rate (LPR) - The 1-year LPR is set at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, both remaining unchanged for three months [1] - The stability in LPR suggests a cautious approach by the central bank in response to current economic conditions [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - According to Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, macroeconomic data showed a downward trend in July, with potential external demand slowdown ahead [1] - There is an expectation for future policy measures aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, which may create room for a reduction in policy rates and LPR quotes [1]

Group 1: Industrial Production - China's industrial production remains stable, with daily average pig iron output and steel plate production increasing week-on-week[1] - The operating rate of oil asphalt and some chemical products has improved, while cement clinker capacity utilization has slightly adjusted[1] - Polyester weaving and automotive tire production rates have rebounded, indicating a recovery in downstream industries[1] Group 2: Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 8.9% year-on-year, but the decline rate improved by 6.2 percentage points compared to the previous week[1] - Year-to-date, new home sales have dropped by 14.2%, a 5.0 percentage point improvement from the previous month[1] - The index for second-hand home listing prices fell by 0.42% week-on-week as of August 4[1] Group 3: Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue averaged 206.74 million yuan per day, showing a year-on-year increase of 46.2%[1] - Domestic flight operations increased by 1.6% year-on-year, with the Baidu migration index rising by 17.7%[1] - Retail sales of major home appliances grew by 10.5% year-on-year as of August 1[1] Group 4: External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 6.8% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 4.1%[1] - South Korea's export value decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, a decline of 10.2 percentage points from July[1] - The Chinese export container freight index fell by 0.6% week-on-week, indicating a downward adjustment in shipping rates[1] Group 5: Price Trends - The South China industrial product index rose by 0.4%, while the black raw material index remained stable[1] - Rebar futures prices dropped by 0.8%, and spot prices fell by 0.3%[1] - Coking coal futures prices increased by 0.2%, but spot prices in Shanxi decreased by 0.6%[1]

Group 1: Economic Performance and External Demand - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with net exports contributing an increase of 1.0 percentage points to economic growth [1] - In Q2, GDP growth slowed to 5.2%, with external demand and consumption contributions decreasing by 0.9 and 0.1 percentage points respectively, while investment contribution increased by 0.8 percentage points [1] - The negative impact of US tariff policies is expected to intensify in the second half of the year, necessitating the effective release of domestic demand potential to stabilize growth [1] Group 2: Trade Dynamics with the US - In the first half of the year, China's exports to the US fell by 10.7%, while imports decreased by 9.2%, leading to an 11.5% drop in trade surplus [2] - The US saw a 21.2% decline in exports to China and a 15.6% decrease in imports from China, with a 12.5% reduction in trade deficit [2] - Despite a reduction in tariffs announced in mid-May, bilateral trade has not fundamentally improved [2] Group 3: Monthly Trade Trends - In May, China's exports to the US dropped by 34.5%, and imports fell by 18.1%, with a 41.5% decrease in trade surplus [3] - By June, the decline in exports to the US moderated to 16.1%, while imports decreased by 15.5% [3] - The US experienced a 42.1% drop in exports to China in May, with a 41.4% decline in imports, but the decline narrowed in June [3] Group 4: Impact of Tariff Policies - Over half of the Chinese goods exported to the US have been significantly affected by the current tariff situation, with 53.5% of product categories experiencing lower export growth than the average [4] - In Q2, 24.5% of products exported to the US saw declines of over 40%, but this only accounted for 2.4% of total export value [5] Group 5: Future Trade Projections - The WTO predicts a 0.9% increase in global goods trade for the year, but warns that recent tariff changes will negatively impact global trade prospects [7] - The IMF has raised its global economic growth forecast but emphasizes that rising tariffs could weaken economic growth and increase uncertainty [6] Group 6: Domestic Economic Strategies - The Chinese government is focusing on releasing domestic demand potential as a key strategy to counter external disruptions [10] - Recent policies aim to stimulate consumption through financial support for personal loans and service sector businesses, enhancing market vitality [14]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that while external demand uncertainty is decreasing due to the reduction of U.S. tariff policy disruptions, the impact of a potential slowdown in global trade activities after the "export grabbing" trend subsides still needs to be observed [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - From January to June, the broad fiscal expenditure, including general public budgets and government funds, increased by 8.9% year-on-year, a significant improvement compared to a decline of 2.8% in the same period last year, contributing positively to economic growth in the first half of the year [1] - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" in early August may significantly raise the U.S. weighted average import tariff level, introducing uncertainty to external demand trends [1] Group 2: Policy Implications - Continuous effective fiscal policy is crucial for stabilizing domestic demand and confidence [1] - The need for timely reinforcement of domestic fiscal measures after initial efforts, as well as the effectiveness of new policy financial tools in boosting investment, are areas of concern [1]

Core Insights - Monthly commodity price forecast indicates oil prices in a fluctuating range, while copper and gold prices are expected to trend upwards [2] Domestic Demand - New housing and passenger vehicle sales growth rates have declined, while second-hand housing sales have rebounded; consumer electronics sales prices in August have shown a year-on-year decline [2] - In August, new housing sales saw a year-on-year decline, while second-hand housing sales increased but prices fell; the high base and hot weather contributed to a decrease in passenger vehicle sales growth, with retail sales declining and wholesale sales recovering [2] - Movie box office revenue and attendance have decreased but remain at historically high levels; tourism consumption continues to rise, with hotel occupancy rates increasing and revenue per available room up compared to last year [2] External Demand - The extension of the US-China tariff exemption for three months has been announced, while shipping volumes from China to the US continue to decline [3] - Overall exports are weakening, with a drop in CCFI shipping rates and a significant decrease in container throughput; however, the number of departing ships has increased [3] Production - The effects of capacity reduction are yet to be seen, with manufacturing employment reaching a new low [4] - Recent steel production has decreased due to maintenance and iron water transfer, while the profitability of sample steel mills has slightly declined but remains acceptable [4] - The average daily coal consumption of six major power generation groups has significantly increased, driving up coal prices [5] - The manufacturing employment index has increased month-on-month but shows a year-on-year decline, reaching a historical low [6] Prices - Tariff exemptions have suppressed gold prices; domestic rebar prices have increased, while cement and thermal coal prices continue to rise, and glass prices have decreased [6]

Domestic Demand - New housing and passenger car sales growth has declined, while second-hand housing sales have rebounded[2] - In August, new housing sales saw a year-on-year decline of 8%, while second-hand housing sales volume increased, but prices fell[2] - Retail sales of home appliances in August showed a downward trend in year-on-year growth[2] External Demand - The extension of tariff exemptions between China and the U.S. for three months has led to a continued decline in shipping volumes from China to the U.S.[2] - Overall exports are weakening, with the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) showing a decrease in shipping rates and a significant drop in container throughput[2] Production - Manufacturing employment index has reached a historical low, with a year-on-year decline continuing[2] - Steel production has decreased due to maintenance and operational adjustments, while rebar prices have started to rise[2] Prices - Tariff exemptions have suppressed gold prices, while domestic rebar prices have increased, and cement and coal prices continue to rise[2] - The geopolitical situation and rising U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have put downward pressure on oil prices[2] Risks - Potential policy changes and economic recovery not meeting expectations pose risks to the forecasts[2]

Group 1 - Japan's real GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, translating to an annualized growth rate of 1.0% [1] - Personal consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economy, increased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, while business equipment investment rose by 1.3% and residential investment grew by 0.8% [1] - Public demand, including government consumption and public investment, decreased by 0.3%, contributing negatively to domestic demand growth [1] Group 2 - The Cabinet Office revised its GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year (April 2025 to March 2026) down from 1.2% to 0.7% [2] - The reduction in GDP growth expectations is attributed to the impact of U.S. tariff policies, which are expected to directly decrease Japan's exports to the U.S. and indirectly affect exports to other countries [2]

Group 1 - Japan's real GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, translating to an annualized growth rate of 1.0% [1] - Personal consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economy, increased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, while business investment in equipment rose by 1.3% and residential investment grew by 0.8% [1] - Public demand, including government consumption and public investment, decreased by 0.3%, contributing negatively to domestic demand growth [1] Group 2 - The Japanese Cabinet Office revised its economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 from 1.2% to 0.7%, citing the impact of U.S. tariff policies on Japan's exports [2] - The decline in exports to the U.S. is expected to have a direct effect, while reduced exports from other countries to the U.S. will indirectly affect Japan's exports of intermediate goods [2]