证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 9月PMI表现温和 节后债市延续震荡 2025年10月10日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 国庆节后本周只有两个交易日，国债期货表现为冲高回落，周四上涨，周五回调。全周30年国债收跌0.03%，10 年国债涨0.09%，5年国债持平，2年国债跌0.02%。 国债期货一周行情复盘 数据来源：wind，格林大华 国债现券到期收益率曲线变动 10月10日收盘国债现券到期收益率曲线与9月30日相比变化不大。2年期国债到期收益率从9月30日的 1.49%上行1个BP至10月10日的1.50% ；5年期国债到期收益率持平于1.60%；10年期国债到期收益率从9月 30日的1.86%下行1个BP至10月10日的1.85%；30年期国债到期收益率从9月30日的2.25%上行3个BP至10月 10日的2.28%。 数据来源：wind，格林大华 9月份官方制造业PMI为49.8%，连续第六个月在荣枯线之下 9月份中国制造业采购经理指数 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 预计基本面对债市定价权逐步抬升 ——9 月 PMI 点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 今年 9 月制造业 PMI 环比增长 0.4pct 至 49.8%，略超预期但仍位于荣枯线以下，非制造业 PMI 回落 0.3pct 至 50.0%。供需关系仍需优化，生产是否"前置"有待观察。外需保持稳定、内需 恢复相对缓慢，"主要原材料购进价格-出厂价格"差值继续走阔，企业利润修复或承压。小型 企业景气度明显回升，新兴制造行业景气度改善。服务业景气度回落，建筑业改善但仍处相对 低位。PMI 修复的持续性有待观察，数据公布当日债市对基本面进一步定价，我们预计随着基 本面对债市的定价权逐步抬升，四季度债市表现或将好于三季度。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 事件评论 风险提示 1、经济基本面变化超预期；2、物价变化超预期；3、货币政策不及预期。 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Ti ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 物价的三个变化——9 月经济数据前瞻 核心观点：展望 9 月，从物价角度来看，关注的是三个变化。 首先，制造业投资累计增速或将是 2021 年以来首次低于 GDP 累计增速，预计 1-9 月制造业投资累计增速为 4.0%，前三季度 GDP 累计增速为 5.1%左右（三 季度当季预计为 4.8%左右）。这有助于改善中期维度的供需矛盾。其次，物价 的领先指标，金融层面的 M1 或开始回落，这意味着未来 3-4 个季度的物价走 势存在反复的可能。再次，物价的静态表现，9 月 PPI 同比收窄，但环比或再 次转跌，反映了当下终端需求尤其是内需依然偏弱的状态，预计 9 月社零同比 3.2%左右，1-9 月固投累计增速-0.2%，9 月出口同比 6%左右。 以上三个变化对于政策而言，需密切关注短期经济运行，适时在终端需求层面 予以加力。根据 9 月 29 日发改委发布会，"将持续加强经济监测预测预警，做 好政策预研储备，根据形势变化及时推出"。 近期以来，政策已经有所微调的包括一线城市的地产限购政策、政策性金融工 具的加速推进（5000 亿补充资本金）、第四批以旧换新额度下达（10 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights improvements in industrial production, sustained high levels of infrastructure construction, and a rebound in real estate transactions, indicating a potential recovery in the economy [2][5][24]. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production has shown improvement, with the blast furnace operating rate increasing by 3.5% week-on-week and 3.5 percentage points year-on-year to 83.9% [5][12]. - The chemical production chain has also seen a rise, with soda ash and PTA operating rates increasing by 1.1% and 5.5% respectively, year-on-year changes being +2.7 percentage points to 12.5% and +8.5 percentage points to 75% [12][16]. - The automotive sector has experienced an uptick, with the operating rate of semi-steel tires rising by 6% week-on-week and 5.8 percentage points year-on-year to 73.5% [12]. Group 2: Construction and Infrastructure - Infrastructure construction remains at a high level, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates increasing by 4.3% and 1.2 percentage points respectively, year-on-year changes being +5.8 percentage points to 44.7% and +1.1 percentage points to 46.4% [16][22]. - The asphalt operating rate has slightly decreased by 1.8% week-on-week but remains at a high level year-on-year at 38.4% [22]. Group 3: Real Estate and Demand - Real estate transactions have improved, with the average daily transaction area of new homes rising by 9.6 percentage points year-on-year to 6.3 million square meters, particularly in first and second-tier cities [25][28]. - Port cargo throughput related to exports has shown strong performance, with year-on-year increases of 1.3 percentage points to 8.5% [32]. Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have rebounded, with prices for eggs, vegetables, and pork increasing by 1.3%, 0.8%, and 0.3% respectively [57]. - Industrial product prices are showing divergence, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index increasing by 0.1% week-on-week, while energy and chemical prices decreased by 0.2% [63].

Core Viewpoint - The recent measures to regulate disorderly competition among enterprises have positively impacted production prices in various industries, which is expected to help the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recover [1] Industry Summary - The government has been actively promoting industry self-discipline and capacity governance in key sectors, with gradual effects becoming evident [1] - In August, the year-on-year decline in factory prices for industries such as coal, steel, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics has narrowed, leading to a reduced downward impact on the Producer Price Index (PPI) compared to the previous month [1] - These changes are conducive to the return of price operations to a reasonable range [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the divergence in industrial production, the continued recovery in infrastructure construction, and the weakness in real estate transactions, indicating mixed signals in the economic landscape [2][4][29]. Group 1: Industrial Production - The high furnace operating rate increased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year to 6.8%, while the apparent consumption continued to weaken, dropping by 1.9 percentage points to 0% [4]. - Chemical production showed significant declines, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 4.1 percentage points to 1.7% and 5.5 percentage points to 12.1%, respectively [11]. - The automotive sector also faced challenges, with the operating rate for semi-steel tires decreasing by 0.3 percentage points to 6.2% [11]. Group 2: Construction Industry - Infrastructure construction is showing signs of recovery, with the asphalt operating rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 9.2% [2][23]. - However, cement production and demand have declined, with the national grinding operating rate and cement shipment rate down by 3.3 percentage points to 9% and 1.3 percentage points to 4.2%, respectively [17]. Group 3: Real Estate and Demand - National new housing daily transaction area remains weak, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6% to 0%, particularly in first and third-tier cities [29]. - The migration scale index decreased by 7.6% year-on-year to 12.8%, indicating a marginal decline in human mobility [40]. Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have declined, with pork, eggs, and fruit prices down by 0.2%, 0.2%, and 0.5% respectively, while vegetable prices increased by 1.7% [56]. - The industrial product price index rose by 0.2%, with the metal price index also increasing by 0.2% [62].

Economic Overview - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that despite facing risks and challenges, China's economy is showing steady progress with supportive macro policies and expanding market demand [3][12]. New Productive Forces - In July, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 9.3% year-on-year, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.6 percentage points [4]. - The digital economy is rapidly developing, with the added value of digital product manufacturing increasing by 8.4% year-on-year in July [4]. - Production of green low-carbon products is also on the rise, with new energy vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and wind turbine generators seeing year-on-year growth of 17.1%, 29.4%, and 19.3%, respectively [4]. Foreign Trade - In July, the total value of goods imports and exports increased by 6.7% year-on-year, with exports growing by 8% and imports by 4.8% [5]. - The diversification of trade partners is evident, with exports to ASEAN, the EU, and Belt and Road countries increasing by 14.8%, 8.2%, and 11.7%, respectively [5]. - The export of integrated circuits saw significant growth of 21.8%, indicating enhanced international competitiveness [5]. Consumption - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with service retail sales growing by 5.2% in the first seven months [6]. - The sales of home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment saw substantial growth, with increases of 28.7%, 20.6%, and 14.9%, respectively [7]. - The tourism and leisure sectors experienced rapid growth, with retail sales in related services maintaining double-digit growth [7]. Investment - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.6% year-on-year in the first seven months, with actual growth (adjusted for price factors) estimated between 4% and 5% [8][9]. - Manufacturing investment increased by 6.2%, significantly outpacing overall investment growth [9]. - Investment in high-tech industries, such as aerospace and information services, saw substantial increases of 33.9% and 32.8%, respectively [9]. Price Trends - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed positive changes, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [10]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a strengthening market demand [10]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month decline of 0.2%, but the rate of decline has narrowed, marking the first reduction in the rate since March [10].

Core Insights - Monthly commodity price forecast indicates oil prices in a fluctuating range, while copper and gold prices are expected to trend upwards [2] Domestic Demand - New housing and passenger vehicle sales growth rates have declined, while second-hand housing sales have rebounded; consumer electronics sales prices in August have shown a year-on-year decline [2] - In August, new housing sales saw a year-on-year decline, while second-hand housing sales increased but prices fell; the high base and hot weather contributed to a decrease in passenger vehicle sales growth, with retail sales declining and wholesale sales recovering [2] - Movie box office revenue and attendance have decreased but remain at historically high levels; tourism consumption continues to rise, with hotel occupancy rates increasing and revenue per available room up compared to last year [2] External Demand - The extension of the US-China tariff exemption for three months has been announced, while shipping volumes from China to the US continue to decline [3] - Overall exports are weakening, with a drop in CCFI shipping rates and a significant decrease in container throughput; however, the number of departing ships has increased [3] Production - The effects of capacity reduction are yet to be seen, with manufacturing employment reaching a new low [4] - Recent steel production has decreased due to maintenance and iron water transfer, while the profitability of sample steel mills has slightly declined but remains acceptable [4] - The average daily coal consumption of six major power generation groups has significantly increased, driving up coal prices [5] - The manufacturing employment index has increased month-on-month but shows a year-on-year decline, reaching a historical low [6] Prices - Tariff exemptions have suppressed gold prices; domestic rebar prices have increased, while cement and thermal coal prices continue to rise, and glass prices have decreased [6]

Domestic Demand - New housing and passenger car sales growth has declined, while second-hand housing sales have rebounded[2] - In August, new housing sales saw a year-on-year decline of 8%, while second-hand housing sales volume increased, but prices fell[2] - Retail sales of home appliances in August showed a downward trend in year-on-year growth[2] External Demand - The extension of tariff exemptions between China and the U.S. for three months has led to a continued decline in shipping volumes from China to the U.S.[2] - Overall exports are weakening, with the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) showing a decrease in shipping rates and a significant drop in container throughput[2] Production - Manufacturing employment index has reached a historical low, with a year-on-year decline continuing[2] - Steel production has decreased due to maintenance and operational adjustments, while rebar prices have started to rise[2] Prices - Tariff exemptions have suppressed gold prices, while domestic rebar prices have increased, and cement and coal prices continue to rise[2] - The geopolitical situation and rising U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have put downward pressure on oil prices[2] Risks - Potential policy changes and economic recovery not meeting expectations pose risks to the forecasts[2]

Monetary Policy Stance - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will implement a moderately easing monetary policy [1] - The PBOC will maintain ample liquidity in the market [1] - The PBOC aims to align the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price stability targets [1] - The PBOC considers promoting a reasonable rebound in prices as an important factor in monetary policy [1] Economic Objectives - The PBOC aims to maintain price levels at a reasonable level [1]