Dr小鱼 在2026年的第一次播客中，埃隆·马斯克AI、机器人，就业、经济和个人未来规划，进行了整体判断， 结论令人不安。 一、AI 总智能将超过人类社会 马斯克强调数字智能的整体规模正在逼近人类智能总和。未来，人形机器人的数量也会超过人类本身。 机器将从"工具"走向"参与者"。 一切美好的前提是：系统必须保持可控。 二、白领岗位比蓝领更危险，更早更集中承压受Ai压力 三、物价会越来越便宜，钱会越来越多 AI 与机器人带来极端效率，生产成本被持续压低，长期通缩成为常态。 真正的压力落在国家财政上，国债利息正在快速膨胀。 信息处理类工作最容易被算法接管。 写材料、做分析、基础管理和协调，处在高替代区间。 马斯克判断，当前 AI 已经可以替代超过一半不涉及实体操作的工作。 办公室工作比工地"搬砖"更容易失业。 面对这种局面，政府最现实的选择是持续放水，货币供应不断扩张。 四、时间窗口很短，只有3–7 年 马斯克预测未来 3 到 7 年内，社会将同时出现明显动荡和技术推动下的繁荣。 大量岗位变化，现在已经接近替代一半岗位的临界点"奇点"。 传统经济指标在 AI 时代将彻底失效 五、传统养老逻辑彻底改变 马斯克最具冲 ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2026 01 09 年 月 日 12 月 PPI 同比下降 1.9%，环比上涨 0.2%，有色、煤炭行业仍然拉动 较大。输入性因素仍然影响国内有色金属相关行业，有色金属矿采选业、 有色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格环比分别上涨 3.7%和 2.8%。产能治理及 季节性需求因素下，煤炭开采和洗选业、煤炭加工价格环比分别上涨 1.3% 和 0.8%，均连续 5 个月上涨。需求季节性增加也带动燃气生产和供应业、 电力热力生产和供应业价格分别上涨 1.2%和 1.0%。全国统一大市场建设 纵深推进，相关行业价格同比降幅持续收窄，新质生产力相关行业价格同 比上涨。提振消费专项行动深入实施背景下，文体类、品质类消费较快增 长，工艺美术及礼仪用品制造价格上涨 23.3%。12 月生活资料 PPI 同比 下降 1.3%，降幅相比上月缩窄 0.2 个百分点。 物价回升受短期、单一商品因素影响大，对融资需求影响有限。本月 CPI 同比涨幅扩大主要由食品价格涨幅扩大拉动，其中鲜菜和鲜果尤为明显， 但这属于供给端的短期、季节性因素，且 12 月中下旬以来菜价已有所回 落，后续物价 ...

银河证券章俊表示，国内物价运行的低点已过，正进入温和修复阶段。 1月5日至6日，中国人民银行工作会议围绕货币政策实施、金融服务实体经济、风险防控、金融改革开 放等核心领域，明确行动路径。货币政策方面，会议强调，把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为 货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具。经济学家们预计未来政策将保持连 续性、稳定性兼顾灵活性。 摘要 2026年1月，第一财经研究院发布的"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为50.32，较上月回升，维持景气 状态。经济学家们认为2025年我国经济运行稳中有进，顺利收官。 兴业证券王涵认为，未来宏观经济将稳中求进、提质增效，结构持续优化，新质生产力占比 提升，"投资于人"带来新的经济活力。 首席经济学家们对2025年12月CPI同比增速的预测均值为0.8%，PPI同比预测均值为-2%。2025年12月工 业增加值增速预测均值4.9%，固定资产投资累计增速预测均值为-2.2%，社会消费品零售总额同比增速 预测均值为1.8%，贸易顺差预测均值为1113.5亿美元，新增贷款预测均值为7182.5亿元，社会融资总量 预测均值为1.8万亿，M2同比增速预测 ...

2026年1月，第一财经研究院发布的"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为50.32，较上月回升，维持景气状态。经济学家们认为2025年我国经济运行稳中 有进，顺利收官。 首席经济学家们对2025年12月CPI同比增速的预测均值为0.8%，PPI同比预测均值为-2%。2025年12月工业增加值增速预测均值4.9%，固定资产投资累计 增速预测均值为-2.2%，社会消费品零售总额同比增速预测均值为1.8%，贸易顺差预测均值为1113.5亿美元，新增贷款预测均值为7182.5亿元，社会融资 总量预测均值为1.8万亿，M2同比增速预测均值为8%。 1月5日至6日，中国人民银行工作会议围绕货币政策实施、金融服务实体经济、风险防控、金融改革开放等核心领域，明确行动路径。货币政策方面， 会议强调，把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具。经济学家们预计未来政策将 保持连续性、稳定性兼顾灵活性。 | 表 1 CBNR1 自席经济学家调研: 2025 年 12月经济数据次测 | 2025 年 12 月 | 2025年12月预测 | 11 月公布 | 2025年12月预 | | ...

国内地产明确定调，地缘风险再度上行 —— 宏观周报（2025 年 12 月 29 日-2026 年 1 月 4 日） 2026 证 1 证 4 证 分析师 张迪 证010-8092 -7737 证zhangdi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524060001 詹璐 证0755-8345-3719 证zhanlu @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130522110001 吕雷 证010-8092 -7780 宏观动态报告 证lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524080002 赵红蕾 证010-8092 -7606 证zhaohonglei _yj@chinastock.com.c n 证证证证证证证证S0130524060005 铁伟奥 证136-8324 -0373 证tieweiao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130525060002 研究助理：薄一程、吴佳文 www.chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 ...

据日本NHK电视台网站报道，日本高市早苗政府在一个最新民调中，创下了一项自1998年以来的最差 纪录。 根据NHK的介绍，这项于今年10月至11月期间进行的民调，是请3000名18岁以上的日本民众，就"当前 日本正朝恶化方向发展的领域""当前日本正朝良好方向发展的领域"等问题作答。 据日本NHK电视台网站报道，日本高市早苗政府在一个最新民调中，创下了一项自1998年以来的最差 纪录。 根据NHK的介绍，这项于今年10月至11月期间进行的民调，是请3000名18岁以上的日本民众，就"当前 日本正朝恶化方向发展的领域""当前日本正朝良好方向发展的领域"等问题作答。 结果，"物价"在日本正朝恶化方向发展的领域中高居榜首，有多达73%的受访者选择该选项。NHK称， 这不仅比上一轮的调查上升了2个百分点，同时也创下了自1998年此项调查启动以来的最高纪录。 结果，"物价"在日本正朝恶化方向发展的领域中高居榜首，有多达73%的受访者选择该选项。NHK称， 这不仅比上一轮的调查上升了2个百分点，同时也创下了自1998年此项调查启动以来的最高纪录。 有52%的受访者还认为"经济景气"也是日本正在恶化的领域，41%的受访者认为 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-12-22 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《【中邮固收】生产热度下行，大宗商 品价格回落——高频数据跟踪 20251213》 - 2025.12.15 固收周报 生产热度持续下行，农产品价格升至近年高位 ——高频数据跟踪 20251220 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产端热度持续下行，焦炉、高炉、 沥青开工率持续下降，PX、PTA 开工率持续持平，半钢胎开工率小幅 下降。第二，商品房成交边际改善，土地供应面积季节性持续快速回 落。第三，物价边际回升，焦煤、铜、铝、螺纹钢价格上涨，原油价 格持续下降，农产品持续上行至近年来高位。第四，居民出行热度回 升，执行航班量、一线城市高峰拥堵指数均回升。短期重点关注总量 端增量政策落地及房地产市场恢复情况。 生产：焦炉、高炉、沥青开工率均持续下降 12 月 19 日当周，焦炉产能利用率下降 ...

摘要 2025年12月，第一财经研究院发布的"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为50，稍低于上月，持平于50荣 枯线。经济学家们认为，当前我国经济处于弱复苏状态，未来宏观政策将延续宽松基调，为"十五五"开 局奠定坚实的基础。 毕马威蔡伟认为，总的来看，在稳增长政策发力、外部不确定性缓和的带动下，当前整体经 济处于弱复苏通道。 经济学家们预计11月物价数据将较上月公布数据继续回升，CPI同比预测均值为0.72%，PPI同比预测均 值为-2.05%，他们对固定资产投资累计增速的预测均值为-2.1%，社会消费品零售总额同比增速预测均 值为3.09%，工业增加值同比增速预测均值为5.0%。同时，刚刚公布的进出口数据显示，11月进出口同 比数据均高于上月，贸易顺差上升至1116.8亿美元，符合经济学家们的预期。 兴业银行鲁政委认为，"双11"购物节的提振，叠加餐饮回暖趋势延续，11月社会消费品零售 同比有望回升。 经济学家们预计11月金融数据将较上月有所回升，新增贷款的预测均值为6791亿元、社会融资总量的预 测均值为2.32万亿元，M2同比增速预测均值为8.29%，他们认为11月LPR利率和存准水平调整的可能性 较小。 ...

他强调，如何对冲房地产投资下降带来的影响，将是下一步需要重点解决的问题。 12月7日，由联办集团、和讯共同主办、财经中国会承办，主题为"寻找中国经济破局之路"的和讯财经 中国2025年会暨第23届财经风云榜在北京举行。邱晓华在大会演讲中表达了上述观点。 他分析了支撑经济实现目标的三大因素：一是宏观政策积极有效应对，包括积极的财政政策、适度宽松 的货币政策以及消费和投资政策，为经济爬坡过坎提供了有力支撑；二是出口表现超出预期，尽管年初 面临美国"关税战"压力，但企业和进口商的"双抢效应"使得对外经济保持正增长；三是国内市场韧性增 强。 同时，邱晓华也指出当前经济面临的两大突出问题：一是物价持续低位运行，生产价格和消费价格尚未 恢复到正常水平，制约投资、消费和企业效益；二是国内有效需求不足，其中投资需求出现改革开放40 多年来首次负增长，1至11月投资下降约2%，主要受房地产投资两位数下降拖累（房地产投资占总投资 的1/3）。若剔除房地产因素，投资仍保持正增长。 12月7日，国家统计局原局长、阳光保险集团顾问邱晓华在发言中指出，2025年作为"十四五"收官之 年，中国经济总体表现圆满。根据当前发展态势全年5%左右 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - This week's main concerns include a slight rebound in the week-on-week new home sales in 20 cities, a widening year-on-year decline, and only Hangzhou's new home sales were higher than the same period last year. Overall, the real estate sales remained weak. Commodity prices mostly rose, the production remained stable with a differentiated performance in the operating rates. The box office was significantly higher than the seasonal level due to the release of popular movies, which concentratedly reflected the viewing demand [2]. - The year-on-year decline in new home sales widened this week. The week-on-week growth rate of the new home transaction area in 20 cities tracked by Wind was 3.08%, and the year-on-year decline was 33.38%. Specifically, the new home transactions decreased week-on-week, and the year-on-year decline widened. The new home transaction area in second-tier cities was slightly weaker than the previous period, while those in first-tier and third - fourth - tier cities were stronger than the previous period. The year-on-year decline widened significantly, and the new home transaction areas in all tiers of cities were much weaker than the same period last year [2]. - In terms of investment and production, most commodity prices rose. The price of rebar increased slightly, with robust demand, steel mills reducing production, and merchants reluctant to sell, which supported the price increase. The cement price increased slightly as the weather improved, construction accelerated, and manufacturers pushed up the price, but the demand support was limited. The glass futures price rose, with an enhanced expectation of supply contraction, solid cost support, and short - term improvement in production and sales. The asphalt price decreased slightly due to the seasonal shrinkage of demand, sufficient supply, and weakened cost - end support [2]. - In industrial production, the operating rates showed a differentiated performance. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt and automobile tires increased, the operating rate of coking enterprises increased slightly, while the operating rates of steel blast furnaces and PTA decreased, and the operating rate of polyester filament decreased slightly [2]. - In terms of consumption, the travel momentum was strong. The subway ridership, domestic flights, automobile consumption, and box office were higher than the seasonal levels [2]. - In terms of inflation, the pork price decreased, the vegetable price and oil price increased. This week, the vegetable price increased due to cold weather and rainfall leading to vegetable production reduction and poor supply connection. The crude oil price increased, driven by the expected production cut by OPEC+, the decline in US production, and geopolitical risks [2]. - In terms of exports, the SCFI and BDI increased this week. The transportation demand on the East Coast of the United States route rebounded, shipping companies promoted freight rate increases, and the operating cost provided support [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales Remained Weak Year-on-Year - From November 21st to November 27th, the new home transactions decreased week-on-week, and the year-on-year decline widened. The week-on-week growth rate of the new home transaction area in 20 cities tracked by Wind was 3.08%, and the year-on-year decline was 33.38%. Among them, the new home transaction area in second-tier cities was slightly weaker than the previous period, while those in first-tier and third - fourth - tier cities were stronger than the previous period. The year-on-year decline widened significantly, and the new home transaction areas in all tiers of cities were much weaker than the same period last year [2][7]. - In terms of key cities, from a week-on-week perspective, except for Beijing (-32.88%), Shenzhen (-28.09%), and Hangzhou (-1.38%), the new home transactions in other key cities were significantly stronger than the previous period. From a year-on-year perspective, except for Hangzhou (18.73%), the new home transaction areas in other key cities were much weaker than the same period last year [7]. - From November 21st to November 27th, the second - hand home transactions showed a differentiated week-on-week performance, and the year-on-year decline widened. In key cities, from a week-on-week perspective, except for Hangzhou (-1.46%) and Shenzhen (-7.75%), the second - hand home transaction areas in other key cities were stronger than the previous period. From a year-on-year perspective, the second - hand home transaction areas in all key cities decreased significantly compared with the same period last year [7]. 2. Investment: Commodity Prices Mostly Rose - In terms of investment, most commodity prices rose this week. The prices of rebar and cement increased slightly, the glass futures price rose, and the asphalt price decreased slightly [31]. 3. Production: Operating Rates Showed a Differentiated Performance - In production, the operating rates showed a differentiated performance this week. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt and automobile tires increased, the operating rate of coking enterprises increased slightly, while the operating rates of steel blast furnaces and PTA decreased, and the operating rate of polyester filament decreased slightly [39]. 4. Consumption: Travel Momentum was Strong - In terms of consumption, the subway ridership, domestic flights, automobile sales, and box office were higher than the seasonal levels [49]. 5. Exports: SCFI Increased, BDI Increased - In terms of exports, the SCFI index increased slightly, the BDI index increased, the port cargo throughput decreased, and the CRB spot index decreased slightly this week [55]. 6. Prices: Pork Price Decreased, Vegetable Price Increased, Oil Price Increased - In terms of prices, the pork price decreased slightly, the vegetable price increased, the oil price increased, and the rebar price increased slightly [60].