Group 1 - The intertwined and complementary supply chains between China and the U.S. make it difficult for the two economies to decouple [2][4] - China's exports to the U.S. saw a decline of 12.50% in 2019 due to tariffs, but rebounded to $451.81 billion in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 7.90% [2] - In 2022, China's exports to the U.S. reached a record high of $581.78 billion, up 21.60% compared to 2018, indicating that the impact of tariffs was temporary [2] Group 2 - The Biden administration's "small yard, high walls" policy has had a more significant negative impact on China's exports to the U.S., which fell to $500.29 billion in 2023, a decrease of 13.15% from 2022 [2][3] - Despite the decline, exports began to recover in the third quarter of 2023, with December 2024 exports projected to reach $48.83 billion, an annualized rate of approximately $585.96 billion, slightly above the 2022 record [3] Group 3 - Experts agree that the deep economic interdependence between China and the U.S. makes a "no-cost decoupling" impossible, and the U.S. reliance on Chinese products is underestimated [4] - The current economic resilience in China is supported by strong export performance and industrial production, with monetary policy expected to play a key role in addressing external uncertainties [4][5] - The A-share market is transitioning from a "stock economy" to a "new model," with a positive shift in profit growth observed in Q1 2025, signaling the end of a four-year downturn [5]

Group 1 - The current U.S.-China trade negotiations have resulted in a significant reduction of bilateral tariffs, exceeding many observers' expectations, but structural issues remain unresolved [2][3] - The historical context of the U.S.-Japan trade conflict in the 1980s provides insights into the current U.S.-China trade tensions, highlighting key differences such as Japan's alliance with the U.S. and China's greater strategic independence [3][4] - The "Plaza Accord" in 1985 was a pivotal moment in the U.S.-Japan trade war, leading to a sharp appreciation of the yen, which had long-term negative effects on Japan's export-driven economy [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. is facing deep structural economic issues, including income distribution imbalances, which cannot be resolved merely through trade wars or elections [4][5] - The effectiveness of the U.S. tariff strategy is questioned, as it may not be sustainable due to inherent economic contradictions and the adaptability of other countries to U.S. trade policies [5][6] - Japan's current trade strategy involves a combination of delaying negotiations and maintaining a firm stance on key issues, while also seeking to show goodwill through increased investments in the U.S. [7] Group 3 - Cooperation among countries affected by U.S. tariffs, such as China, Japan, and South Korea, is limited but possible, as nations seek to navigate the comprehensive trade pressures from the U.S. [7] - Japan is actively working to expand the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) to include more economies, aiming to create a stable trade framework outside of U.S. influence [7]