来源：滚动播报 美联储的洛根：目前就业市场每月新增约3万个岗位就能达到供需平衡。 ...

美国就业市场正经历从疫后"供不应求"向当前"供需基本平衡"的关键转折。此前，劳动力供给的刚性缺口为就业市场提供了韧性缓冲，使得即便需求降温， 失业率上升也较为平缓。然而，2025年下半年以来，劳动参与率回升、新增就业放缓，推动失业率由4.1%升至4.4%，主因并非大规模裁员，而是供给端修 复——尤其是青少年临时回流与移民劳动力重新进入市场。其中，移民因素更具持续性：2025年特朗普政府强化边境管控大幅减少非法流入，但境内移民出 清阶段性结束，外国出生劳动力回流却难以迅速匹配岗位，推高失业率。 展望2026年，供给侧对失业率的下拉作用有望减弱。移民执法重心在于控制新增流入，而非大规模驱逐存量，预计移民净流入降幅已近极限，劳动力供给扰 动趋于平稳。与此同时，需求侧仍承压：企业受关税成本挤压盈利，压缩人力开支意愿增强，表现为招聘趋谨慎、偏好低薪岗位、加速AI替代；政府因财 政资金紧张（联邦依赖临时拨款、州政府普遍缩编），招聘扩张受限；而求职者信心下滑、跳槽难度加大，也印证招聘需求疲软。整体看，就业市场虽未加 速恶化，但弱势延续概率较高。 在此背景下，若就业数据进一步走弱且通胀保持可控，美联储或在政策权衡中更侧重防范 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current job market appears to be balanced in terms of supply and demand, but there are still concerning factors that need to be addressed [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Harker indicates that while the employment market seems stable, there are underlying issues that could pose risks [1]

Employment Data - In May, non-farm employment increased by 139,000, exceeding market expectations of 126,000, despite a downward revision of 95,000 in the previous two months[5] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.24% in April, up from 4.19% in March, marking a near three-year high[5] - The labor force participation rate decreased from 62.6% to 62.4%[5] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in July dropped significantly to 16.7% following the employment data release[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates steady in June and July, with potential cuts in September and either November or December[2] - Market expectations for policy rates have shifted closer to the Federal Reserve's stance rather than the White House's position[2] Sector Performance - Service sector employment rose from 132,000 to 145,000, indicating resilience in this area, while goods-producing jobs fell from an increase of 11,000 to a decrease of 5,000[5] - Average hourly earnings saw a month-on-month increase of 0.42%, maintaining a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9%[5] - Job openings to unemployed persons ratio remains at 1, below the 2019 level, indicating a balanced labor market[5]