Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In July, urea prices are still supported, and low - buying opportunities can be considered. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand does not increase, urea prices will face significant downward pressure, and the subsequent turnaround lies in exports [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On July 10, compared with July 9, UR01 in Shanxi decreased by 3 yuan/ton (-0.17%), UR01 in Shandong increased by 20 yuan/ton (1.18%), UR05 increased by 1 yuan/ton (0.06%), and UR09 increased by 7 yuan/ton (0.40%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: On July 10, compared with July 9, prices in Shandong increased by 20 yuan/ton (1.09%), in Henan increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.54%), in Hebei remained unchanged (0.00%), in Northeast remained unchanged (0.00%), and in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.54%) [1] - **Upstream Costs**: On July 10, compared with July 9, the anthracite price in Henan decreased by 80 yuan/ton (-7.41%), and in Shanxi remained unchanged (0.00%); the compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged (0.00%) [1] - **Downstream Prices**: On July 10, compared with July 9, the melamine price in Shandong decreased by 16 yuan/ton (-0.32%), and in Jiangsu remained unchanged (0.00%) [1] 2. Basis and Spread - On July 10, compared with July 9, the basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 19 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 4 yuan/ton [1] 3. Market Conditions - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1780 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1790 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1759 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1777 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1777 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 208,229 lots [1] 4. Fundamental Analysis - The supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production approaching 200,000 tons. The enterprise inventory is slightly decreasing, mainly due to increased port collection, and the upstream enterprise inventory is still around 800,000 tons. The top - dressing demand in July will support the price [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - The investment rating for the urea industry is not explicitly stated in the report [1] - The core view is that urea prices in July are still supported, and low - buying opportunities can be focused on, but the subsequent turnaround still depends on exports [1] Group 2: Futures Price - UR01 closed at 1712, up 10 or 0.59% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1716, up 7 or 0.41%; UR09 closed at 1748, up 13 or 0.75% [1] Group 3: Spot Price - Domestic spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu showed different changes. Shandong rose by 10 to 1820, Henan remained unchanged at 1810, Hebei decreased by 10 to 1780, Northeast remained unchanged at 1880, and Jiangsu rose by 20 to 1840 [1] Group 4: Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 104, up 3 from the previous day; the spread of 01 - 05 was - 4, up 3 [1] Group 5: Upstream Cost - Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1080 and 820 respectively [1] Group 6: Downstream Price - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] Group 7: Trading Strategy - Urea supply pressure is still large with high daily production. Last week, enterprise inventory decreased slightly due to increased port - bound volume, but upstream enterprise inventory is still around 880,000 tons. July's top - dressing demand supports prices, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. So, it is believed that urea prices in July are still supported, and low - buying opportunities can be focused on, with the subsequent turnaround depending on exports [1]