大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 8 月 19 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货午后增仓大涨，最终报收 1817（+62/+3.53%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价弱稳，成交一般，河南出厂报 1660-1680 元/吨，山东小颗粒 出厂报 1680-1690 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1700-1710 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1630-1640 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1700-1710 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1540-1620 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】8 月 19 日，尿素行业日产 19.84 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.2 万吨；较去 年同期增加 3.01 万吨；今日开工 85.70%，较去年同期 76.31%提升 9.39%。 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价平稳，成交转弱。山东地区 主流出厂报价窄幅反弹，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率略有提升，原料库存充 裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货，新单 成交乏力，待发消耗，预计出厂报价暂稳为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂报价暂稳， 贸易商观望 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - Last week, the urea futures market first rose and then fell. Affected by the high price of the Indian tender and the opening of exports to India, the market soared and then declined. The downstream's ability to bear high prices is insufficient. Although there is demand resilience, there is no willingness to purchase urea in a concentrated manner for the time being. It is mainly based on replenishing stocks at low prices. With the support of exports and subsequent purchases by compound fertilizer factories, the downside space for urea is limited, and it will mainly undergo weak consolidation in the short term [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market Dynamics - In the first half of last week, affected by the rising futures price, the Indian tender price, and export news, the trading atmosphere in the urea spot market was hot, and the spot price increased. In the second half of the week, the export situation was less than expected, and the downstream support was insufficient, so the price stabilized and declined. Since the weekend, the downstream trading has been mediocre, and the price has mainly been adjusted downward [3] Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures first declined and then rose, with an overall increase. As of August 11, the main September contract of urea closed at 1,722 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton compared to the settlement price on August 4. The trading volume of the main contract last week was 15.6933 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 163,000 tons; the open interest was 5.7222 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 370,600 tons. After the Indian tender price increased and China opened the export of urea to India, the futures price soared to a high of 1,791 yuan/ton, but then the export volume was less than expected, and the futures price corrected. Last week, the decline of urea futures was weaker than that of the spot, and the basis weakened [5] Urea Supply - Last week, the weekly output of urea decreased. From July 31 to August 6, the weekly output of urea was 1.3285 million tons, a decrease of 9,100 tons from the previous period, a week-on-week decrease of 0.87%; the average daily output was 189,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 13,000 tons. It is expected that no enterprise's equipment will be shut down next week, and one shut-down enterprise will resume production. As of August 11, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 191,700 tons, and the operating rate was 81.62% [12] Urea Demand - Last week, the price of compound fertilizer remained flat compared to the previous week. As of August 8, the quotation of 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer was 2,950 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week-on-week. Currently, compound fertilizer factories are in the initial stage of autumn fertilizer production, with an increasing operating load. Sales are mainly based on pre-sales orders, and the finished product inventory in the factories is continuously increasing. Due to the general bearish sentiment in the market and the lack of preparations for large-scale inventory replenishment by compound fertilizer factories, the purchase of raw material urea is mainly based on buying at low prices and making appropriate replenishments. At present, the probability of subsequent concentrated purchases is low. From August 1 to August 7, the operating rate of compound fertilizer was 41.5%, an increase of 3.03 percentage points from the previous week and 2.75 percentage points higher than the same period last year. From August 1 to August 7, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 61.1%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points from the previous period and 11.85 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of melamine decreased, the number of shut-down and maintenance equipment increased during the week, and the downstream demand was weak. It is expected that the operating load will continue to decline in the short term [17] Inventory - As of August 8, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 887,600 tons, a decrease of 29,700 tons from the previous week, a week-on-week decrease of 3.24%, and 563,300 tons higher than the same period last year. During the week, the urea output decreased, and the downstream's low-price purchasing increased, so the inventory in the urea factories decreased. It is expected that the urea inventory will continue to decline next week. The inventory of the port samples was 483,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week. As the export goods gradually left the port, the port inventory decreased [19] International Market - China will export a limited quantity of urea to India, with an expected export volume of 200,000 - 300,000 tons. The price of the IPL Indian tender is higher than the market expectation, and India's demand for urea is still increasing. It is expected that a new tender will be launched in September. Except for India and Brazil, the demand in other global markets has declined to varying degrees. It is expected that the international urea price will have a correction trend before the new demand from these two countries emerges. As of August 8, the FOB price of small-grain urea in China was reported at $460/ton, a week-on-week increase of $50/ton; the FOB price in the Baltic Sea was reported at $455/ton, a week-on-week increase of $20/ton; the price in the Arabian Gulf was $512.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $20/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was reported at $457.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $20/ton. As of August 8, the FOB price of large-grain urea in China was reported at $467.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $30/ton; the FOB price of large-grain urea in Egypt was $502.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $12.5/ton; the FOB price of large-grain urea in the Arabian Gulf was $456.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $7/ton; the FOB price of large-grain urea in the Baltic Sea was $455/ton, a week-on-week increase of $15/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was reported at $465/ton, a week-on-week increase of $7.5/ton; the FOB price in the US Gulf was reported at $446.5/ton, a week-on-week decrease of $12.5/ton [21]

作者：康健 从业资格证号：F03088041 尿素周报2025/7/18 交易咨询证号：Z0019583 研究联系方式：kangjian@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：肖兰兰 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 关注出口变化 观点小结 | 尿素 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 | 供应方面，夏季检修增加，产量有所下滑；出口利润较高，但出口额度仍未大幅放开；复合肥秋季预收开 | | | 偏多 | 始，开工率缓慢提升，工业需求不温不火。综合来看，短期国内驱动不明显，关注出口政策变化。 | | 月差 | 中性 偏多 | 可继续关注出口提振带来的月差走强机会。 | | 政策 | 中性 | 市场传言出口指导价提高，新一轮出口额度释放，但目前并不大幅放开出口的确定消息。 | | 现货 | 中性 | 复合肥开工率缓慢提升，但企业收单平稳，成交不温不火。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 企业库存继续下行，港口库存继续走高，企业库存部分向港口转移，出口需求支撑当前尿素价格。 | | 出口 | 中性 | 国际价格继续走高，出口潜在利润进一步提升； ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In July, urea prices are still supported, and low - buying opportunities can be considered. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand does not increase, urea prices will face significant downward pressure, and the subsequent turnaround lies in exports [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On July 10, compared with July 9, UR01 in Shanxi decreased by 3 yuan/ton (-0.17%), UR01 in Shandong increased by 20 yuan/ton (1.18%), UR05 increased by 1 yuan/ton (0.06%), and UR09 increased by 7 yuan/ton (0.40%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: On July 10, compared with July 9, prices in Shandong increased by 20 yuan/ton (1.09%), in Henan increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.54%), in Hebei remained unchanged (0.00%), in Northeast remained unchanged (0.00%), and in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.54%) [1] - **Upstream Costs**: On July 10, compared with July 9, the anthracite price in Henan decreased by 80 yuan/ton (-7.41%), and in Shanxi remained unchanged (0.00%); the compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged (0.00%) [1] - **Downstream Prices**: On July 10, compared with July 9, the melamine price in Shandong decreased by 16 yuan/ton (-0.32%), and in Jiangsu remained unchanged (0.00%) [1] 2. Basis and Spread - On July 10, compared with July 9, the basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 19 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 4 yuan/ton [1] 3. Market Conditions - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1780 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1790 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1759 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1777 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1777 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 208,229 lots [1] 4. Fundamental Analysis - The supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production approaching 200,000 tons. The enterprise inventory is slightly decreasing, mainly due to increased port collection, and the upstream enterprise inventory is still around 800,000 tons. The top - dressing demand in July will support the price [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In July, urea prices are still supported, and low - buying opportunities can be noted, but the subsequent turnaround depends on exports. The supply pressure of urea remains high, with upstream inventories close to 1 million tons. Although the top - dressing demand in July will support prices, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 in Shandong remained unchanged at 1682 yuan/ton; in Shanxi, it decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 1.81%. UR05 decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 1694 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 0.12%. UR09 increased by 9 yuan/ton to 1721 yuan/ton, a relative change of 0.53% [1]. Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - In Henan, it remained unchanged at 1780 yuan/ton; in Hebei, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1790 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 0.56%; in the Northeast, it remained unchanged at 1890 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1800 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 0.55% [1]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 8 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream Costs - The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1080 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2930 yuan/ton and 2520 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Jiangsu decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 1.89% [1]. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1707 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1728 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1693 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1721 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1710 yuan/ton. The position of 2509 was 238,027 lots [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The recent rumors of looser urea export policies and the release of a new round of Indian tenders have boosted market sentiment. From the perspective of urea demand, June - July is still the peak season for top - dressing corn in the north, and the loosening of export policies and price drops will stimulate speculative demand. Therefore, the demand for urea in the next two months is expected to be good. Wait for the spot price to fall and stabilize before looking for long - position opportunities [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1684 yuan/ton on June 27, up 2 yuan (0.12%) from June 26; UR05 closed at 1696 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (0.30%); UR09 closed at 1717 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan (- 0.41%); Shandong spot price was 1810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.56%) [1] - Domestic small - particle urea spot prices: In Shanxi, it was 1660 yuan/ton on June 27, up 10 yuan (0.61%); in Henan and Hebei, it remained at 1800 yuan/ton; in the Northeast, it was 1890 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 1820 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.55%) [1] - Upstream costs: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1080 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Downstream prices: The price of 45%S compound fertilizer in Shandong and Henan remained at 2930 yuan/ton and 2520 yuan/ton respectively; the price of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained at 5083 yuan/ton and 5300 yuan/ton respectively [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 114 yuan/ton on June 27, up 5 yuan from June 26 [1] - The spread of 01 - 05 was - 12 yuan/ton on June 27, down 3 yuan from June 26 [1] 3. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the urea futures main contract 2509 opened at 1735 yuan/ton, with a high of 1740 yuan/ton, a low of 1712 yuan/ton, closed at 1717 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1723 yuan/ton. The position of 2509 was 222,536 lots [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Wait for the spot price to fall and stabilize before looking for long - position opportunities in urea futures, but be aware of the risk of changes in export policies [1]