Core Viewpoint - China's urea export volume decreased to 601,800 tons in November 2025, but the cumulative export from January to November reached 4,616,300 tons, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2023 [1] Group 1: Urea Production and Prices - Urea production in China for January to December 2025 was 71,130,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with December production slightly rising to 6,040,000 tons [1] - As of January 3, 2026, urea prices in Henan ranged from 1,640 to 1,660 CNY per ton, while in Shandong, prices ranged from 1,660 to 1,690 CNY per ton; CFR China small granular urea was quoted at 400 USD per ton, up by 10 USD from the previous week [1] - Domestic coal-based urea operating rate was 89.5%, up by 2.5% month-on-month but down by 1.3% year-on-year; natural gas-based urea operating rate was 48.4%, down by 1.9 percentage points month-on-month but up by 6.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: New Capacity and Inventory - In December 2025, new urea production capacities included stable operations at Gansu Jinchang Energy (300,000 tons/year) and Gansu Liu Chemical (350,000 tons/year), while the 520,000 tons/year facility by Zhengyuan Hydrogen Energy is delayed until 2026 [2] - Urea production companies' inventory decreased for eight consecutive weeks, reaching 1,019,200 tons by December 31, a reduction of 49,700 tons month-on-month and 531,600 tons year-on-year [2] - Domestic urea port inventory stood at 172,000 tons, showing little change from early December 2025, with most ports maintaining low levels [2] Group 3: International Market Trends - International urea prices have stabilized and increased, with FOB urea prices in China at 400 USD per ton, a week-on-week increase of 10 USD and a year-on-year increase of 150 USD [3] - Despite being in the traditional off-season for agricultural demand, some industrial demand has recovered due to environmental regulations, supporting market sentiment and leading to increased stocking by traders [3] Group 4: Other Demand Factors - The operating rate of domestic compound fertilizers showed insufficient rebound, recorded at 37.75% as of December 25, 2025, down by 1.5 percentage points month-on-month and 3.8 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Urea exports to South America from January to November 2025 totaled 686,000 tons, accounting for 14.9% of total exports, primarily to Brazil and Chile [4] - The ongoing geopolitical situation in Venezuela is expected to drive up international fertilizer prices, potentially increasing China's export prices [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamental driving force of urea is currently neutral, with the subsequent upward driving force depending on the continuity of mid - stream restocking. The continuous destocking of visible inventory supports the price. [2][3] - In the short term, the urea valuation range has shifted upward. The upper static valuation pressure for futures is around 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, while the lower support for the 01 contract is expected to be between 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - The closing price of the urea main contract was 1687 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price remained unchanged at 1682 yuan/ton. [1] - The trading volume was 86,067 lots, a decrease from 109,007 lots the previous day; the open interest of the 01 contract was 219,302 lots, a decrease of 426 lots. [1] - The number of warehouse receipts was 7,887 tons, a decrease of 50 tons; the trading volume was 289.568 million yuan, a decrease of 77.098 million yuan. [1] - The basis in Shandong region was -7 yuan, a decrease of 22 yuan; the basis of Fengxi - disk was -137 yuan, a decrease of 12 yuan; the basis of Dongguang - disk was 3 yuan, a decrease of 12 yuan. [1] - The spread between UR01 - UR05 was -65, an increase of 4. [1] Spot Market - The factory prices of some urea manufacturers changed, with the price of Yankuang Xinjiang decreasing by 15 yuan to 1320 yuan/ton, Shandong Ruixing increasing by 20 yuan to 1700 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu Linggu increasing by 20 yuan to 1710 yuan/ton. [1] - The prices of traders in Shandong and Shanxi regions both decreased by 10 yuan, to 1680 yuan/ton and 1540 yuan/ton respectively. [1] Supply - side Important Indicators - The operating rate was 84.10%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points; the daily output was 203,380 tons, an increase of 2400 tons. [1] Industry News - As of November 26, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.3639 million tons, a decrease of 73,300 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.10%. [2] - The inventory of enterprises in some provinces decreased, while that in some provinces increased. The overall inventory showed a stable decline due to reserve demand and downstream restocking. [2]