行业利润尚可，有压缩预期 从利润来看，当前盘面利润仍然处于相对较好水平。按生产成本统计，2025年固定床装置尚未出现亏损现 象，新型煤化工装置利润相比老装置更高。2026年，在高供应延续的情况下，行业利润有一定压缩预期。 同时，原料端煤炭市场或维持相对宽松格局，价格重心有走低可能，这将导致尿素行业成本支撑力度减 弱，价格重心下移。 出口政策仍是重要变量 2025年，尿素行情呈下滑趋势，从期货加权价格来看，最高在1915元/吨，最低在1585元/吨，波幅 17.23%。高供应成为既定事实，平均日产量同比高约2万吨，行情波动主要取决于季节性需求以及行业政 策的变化。2026年，尿素行业仍处于产能扩张周期，而需求增加有限，预计行情以震荡偏弱为主，价格重 心或进一步下移。 需求增速不及供应，供需失衡加剧 2025年，尿素新增产能630万吨，国内最高日产量接近21万吨。2026年，产能扩张速度仍远超需求增速， 这成为市场面临的主要矛盾。据统计，2026年国内尿素新增产能将达到607万吨，年产量有望达到7500万 吨，同比增长6.56%。库存方面，2025年企业库存多数时间维持在100万吨以上，2026年预估库存压力较 ...

2025年11月我国尿素出口量回落至60.18万吨，虽然较2025年10月和9月降幅明显，但2025年1—11月累 计出口了461.63万吨，超过了2023年全年水平。随着储备需求和出口有条不紊地进行，尿素价格逐渐企 稳反弹。截至2026年1月3日，河南尿素现货低端价格为1640元／吨，高端价格为1660元／吨；山东尿素 市场低端价格为1660元／吨，高端价格为1690元／吨；CFR中国小颗粒尿素报价400美元／吨，较上周 上涨10美元／吨。 据统计，2025年1—12月全国尿素产量7113万吨，同比增加7.9%，其中12月尿素产量小幅升至604万 吨，日产量在19万～20万吨。12月受环保影响，部分尿素装置减量生产。截至12月31日，国内煤制尿素 开工率为89.5%，环比增加2.5%，同比下降1.3%；天然气制尿素开工率48.4%，环比下降1.9个百分点， 同比增加6.3个百分点。 2025年12月16日，印度NFL发布新一轮尿素进口招标，意向采购150万吨，2026年1月2日截标，有效期 至2026年1月16日，最晚船期2月20日。据统计，截至2025年12月，印度一共招投标8轮，中标总量为 867.31 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, urea prices continued to oscillate and search for a bottom, with frequent rapid rebounds. Supply remained high, and production increased year - on - year. In 2026, supply is expected to grow further, with a potential 3.5% increase in capacity and a 3.5% increase in production, or 2 - 2.5% if prices fall. Agricultural demand is expected to rise by 2.67%. Domestic industrial demand may remain weak, with a 2% decline in melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin demand. Urea export policies may continue, but the stimulus from exports is weakening. Without unexpected export demand, urea prices will slowly decline until production shows negative feedback [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Market Review - In 2025, urea prices oscillated downward. Key factors included continuous domestic capacity expansion (355 million tons in 2025, 317 million tons expected in 2026, and 600 million tons from 2027 - 2028), decent agricultural demand during peak seasons, changes in export policies, and stable industrial demand [12][14]. - Quarterly events included winter gas restrictions and rising international natural gas prices in Q3, which pushed up international nitrogen fertilizer prices. There were also factors such as spring plowing demand, changes in compound fertilizer export policies, and the start of summer demand [10]. Capacity Trends - China's urea is in a capacity expansion cycle. In 2025, net new capacity was 4.18 million tons, and 2.94 million tons are expected in 2026. Future plans involve adding about 14 million tons and removing 3 - 5 million tons in the next three years, resulting in a net increase of 9 - 11 million tons [19][24]. - Some fixed - bed processes using anthracite are being phased out, with about 13.61 million tons of such capacity (18% of the total) likely to be eliminated in the next five years [24]. Production and Profitability - In 2025, gas - based urea production was unprofitable, but production was not significantly affected due to planned gas supply and export quota support. However, long - term low prices may lead to reduced production [28]. - In 2026, urea production is expected to increase by 3.6%. But due to limited room for increasing the production rate and low prices for gas - based production, the increase in production may be less than the increase in capacity. If prices fall, output growth may drop to 2.3% [34][39]. Nitrogen Fertilizer Market - Production of nitrogen - containing fertilizers has grown rapidly in recent years. In 2025, synthetic ammonia production is expected to be 34.5% higher than in 2022. Urea remains cost - effective compared to other nitrogen fertilizers, but the substitution demand has decreased [49][53]. - Ammonium chloride and ammonium sulfate markets are moving towards a more balanced supply, with supply increasing and the substitution demand for urea limited. The substitution of ammonium sulfate for urea exports may weaken [54][60][62]. - Overall nitrogen fertilizer supply has increased significantly. In 2025, the total nitrogen - containing output of nitrogen fertilizers is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 10%. However, international nitrogen fertilizer prices have weakened, and future export momentum may decline [64][66]. Demand Trends - Agricultural demand is expected to continue to grow moderately. From 2020 - 2024, grain sowing area and production increased. Policies aim to increase grain production by 100 billion jin by 2030. In 2026, agricultural and other demand is expected to rise by 2.7%, and compound fertilizer demand may increase by 1.7% [70][82][85]. - Industrial demand is related to the real - estate market and furniture exports. With weak real - estate demand and falling furniture export prices, the demand for melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin is expected to decline by 2% in 2026 [88][97]. Export Situation - Export policies are crucial. Historically, policies have changed frequently. In 2025, export policies were relaxed through quotas, and exports may reach 4.76 million tons, with a possible increase to 5 million tons in 2026. India's import demand may decrease, while non - China and India regions are expected to add 4 million tons of new capacity in 2026. Export profit remains high, and the quota system is expected to continue in 2026 [102][111][113][116]. Balance Sheet - In 2026, domestic new capacity will continue to be put into operation. Without considering production cuts due to losses, urea production is expected to increase by about 2.54 million tons (3.7%). Demand is expected to see a 2.7% increase in agricultural and other sectors, a 1.7% increase in compound fertilizers, a 2% decrease in industrial demand, and stable or increasing exports. Overall, supply may slightly exceed demand, but there is still a possibility of short - term strength due to export policies [120][121].

11—12月主流区域尿素价格低位波动，10月出口量维持120万吨的高位，但国内供应量偏高，尿素价格 仍承压。12月中旬，随着新一轮印标的发布，叠加储备需求支撑，尿素价格逐渐企稳。12月17日，CFR （成本加运费）中国小颗粒尿素报价387.5美元／吨，较上周下跌4美元／吨；河南现货价格在 1600~1630元／吨；山东现货价格在1640~1680元／吨。 截至12月18日收盘，尿素期货主力合约价格上涨1.67%，至1708元／吨。主流地区低端产品出厂价上涨 10~20元／吨，至1610~1670元／吨。 供应端压力减轻 相关数据显示，2025年1—11月全国尿素产量为6509万吨，同比增长7.9%，其中11月产量升至601万 吨，日产重回20万吨以上高位。12月尿素产量高位运行概率较大。截至12月12日，国内煤制尿素开工率 为89.6%，环比提升2.9个百分点，同比下降1个百分点；天然气制尿素开工率为55.2%，环比下降9.9个 百分点，同比下降1.2个百分点。 新产能投放方面，12月关注甘肃金昌能源、华昌化工、正元氢能、甘肃刘化共137万吨产能投产进度， 预计2025年尿素总产能提升5.6%。 工厂库存小幅 ...

利好兑现，价格再度走弱 尿素周报 2025/12/13 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度总结 | 行情回顾 | 前期在复合肥以及储备需求支撑下，价格持续震荡走高，本周随着利好消化以及能化板块的集体走弱，尿素价格再度出现回 | | --- | --- | | | 落，目前需求尚可，气头供应季节性回落，企业库存延续高位去化，预计下方空间有限。 供应  国内企业开工81.85%，环比+0.02%，短期预计高位震荡为主。 | | |  最新日产19.59万吨，同比增1.04万吨。 | | |  储备需求逐步回落，复合肥需求尚可，本周40.62%，环比提升0.09%。 需求 | | |  后续需求关注淡储以及出口需求变化。 | | 基本面 |  企业利润再度小幅走弱，目前绝对水平依旧处于低位。 | | |  基差走强，1-5价差回落。 | | | 估值  出口利润高 ...

供大于求格局延续，尿素跌幅扩大 大宗商品研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2025年9月 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 基本面数据 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1、概述 GALAXY FUTURES 2 上周观点：回归基本面，尿素震荡下跌 本周观点：供需格局继续恶化，尿素跌幅扩大 周末至今，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价下跌，成交平平。山东地区主流出厂报价领跌，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥 开工率略有提升，原料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货，新单成交乏力，待发消耗， 预计出厂报价弱稳为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂报价跟涨，贸易商观望，收单量下滑，成交转弱，待发充裕，预计出厂报价跟跌为主。 交割区周边区域出厂价弱稳，区内市场氛围表现降温，东北地区需求低迷，交投情绪一般，农业刚需采购，期现商和贸易商出货，外发订单 量下滑，新单成交平平，待发充裕，预计出厂价下跌为主。 综合来看，部分装置检修，日均产量下滑至19万吨以下。需求端，新一轮印标结果出炉，总招标量203万吨，当前国内外 ...

第三，尿素各个环节库存均处于高位，对价格有一定压制。截至2025年12月3日，中国尿素企业总库存 量129.05万吨，较上周减少7.34万吨，环比减少5.38%。本周期国内尿素企业库存继续下降，近期储备 需求不断补仓以及复合肥工业需求回升，加之部分出口需求推进，尿素企业库存仍处于去库趋势。10月 份至今，因物流发运减少，尿素企业虽有订单待发，但库存逐渐增加。10月之后，中原地区连续降雨， 秋季肥推迟，加之节前下游多适当补仓，市场交易回温缓慢，尿素企业库存整体较10月份之前大幅累 库。目前尿素企业库存总体居历史同期高位，随着国内需求逐渐趋弱，尿素企业检修装置陆续回归，企 业库存将继续累库为主，对价格支撑力度进一步减弱。 当前，尿素期现价格高位坚挺，一方面，国内尿素煤头装置开工率整体高位稳定，但气头装置开始检 修，日均产量降至19万吨附近，供应略有收紧；另一方面，需求稳步提升，中原地区复合肥开始陆续生 产，本月将进行第一轮收单，尿素原料持续采购，同时东北地区持续采购备货，大颗粒价格不断攀升， 淡储企业积极入市拿货进行储备。综合来看，尿素在供应略有收缩而需求提升的背景下，将持续高位坚 挺。 第二，复合肥开工率稳步提 ...

2025 年 12 月 03 日 尿素：价格中枢上移，日内关注库存情况 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,687 | 1,675 | 1 2 -22940 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,682 | 1,682 | 0 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 86,067 | 109,007 | | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 219,302 | 219,728 | -426 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,887 | 7,937 | -50 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 289,568 | 366,666 | -77098 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | -7 | 1 5 | -22 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -137 | -125 | -12 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In December, on the supply side, previously shut - down coal - based plants will resume operations, and new production capacities will be released, but gas - based plants will start to shut down for maintenance. Domestic supply will remain stable at a high level, with daily production expected to stay above 200,000 tons. On the demand side, agricultural demand will be generally stable. Compound fertilizer plants in the Central Plains will start the first round of orders, and spring fertilizer production will be advanced. Winter storage will continue in the Northeast, and some enterprises will stock up at low prices. With the fourth batch of export quotas released, attention should be paid to the dynamics of Indian tenders. Overall, urea prices in December are expected to "rise after a brief decline" [5][98]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Preface - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In December, the domestic urea supply will be high and stable, and the demand will be generally stable. Urea prices are expected to "rise after a brief decline" [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For unilateral trading, go short first and then long between 1600 - 1700. For arbitrage, focus on the 5 - 9 positive spread. For options, the lower bound is 1600, and the upper bound is 1700 [6][98]. 2. Fundamental Situation (1) Market Review - In November, the ex - factory prices of domestic urea in major regions fluctuated. The daily production of domestic urea increased to over 200,000 tons, with sufficient overall supply. The impact of exports on the domestic market gradually faded, and the market returned to the domestic supply - demand fundamentals. The overall demand was stable, and the ex - factory prices of urea in major regions fluctuated between 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton, and ended the month at around 1570 - 1600 yuan/ton [10][11]. - The main futures contract of urea fluctuated widely, with the center slightly moving up. In the first half of November, it was affected by the fourth batch of quotas and rebounded continuously, reaching a maximum of 1679 yuan/ton. In the second half, it returned to the domestic supply - demand fundamentals and declined weakly. By the end of the month, the 2601 contract closed at 1654 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month [25]. (2) Supply Analysis - New Production Mostly Concentrated in the Second Half of the Year - From January to November 2025, 450,000 tons of new domestic urea plants were put into production. In November, 70,000 tons of new plants were expected to be put into operation. By the end of the year, the total domestic urea production capacity is expected to reach about 8.26 million tons [31][33]. - From January to October, the cumulative domestic urea production reached 5.906 million tons, a significant increase of 430,000 tons or 7.86% compared to the same period last year. It is estimated that the production in November will be 615,000 tons, and the total production from January to November will reach 6.506 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 471,000 tons or 7.85% [35]. - In December, coal prices are expected to decline first and then rise. As coal prices fluctuate and urea spot prices rebound, coal - based production profits will slightly expand. The daily production of urea is expected to remain around 200,000 tons, and enterprise inventories are expected to fluctuate [39][46][52]. (3) Export - Related Factors - India's urea import demand may decrease in 2025, but the reduction will be limited. The fourth batch of export quotas has been released, and it is estimated that there will still be about 600,000 tons of exports from November to December [58][63]. (4) Demand Improvement in December - The macro - economic recovery is slow. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity [69]. - In December, industrial demand for urea, such as from the melamine industry, is not expected to have significant highlights. The capacity utilization rate of China's melamine in the 48th week of 2025 (November 21 - 27) was 60.80% on average, down 1.40 percentage points from the previous week [75][77]. - In December, compound fertilizer plants will gradually start production. Agricultural top - dressing still has some demand, but it is limited. Compound fertilizer plants in the Central Plains will start the first round of orders, and the production of spring fertilizer will be advanced. Winter storage in the Northeast will continue to support the prices of large - granular urea [84][90][92]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Similar to the preface, in December, supply will be stable at a high level, and demand will be generally stable. Urea prices are expected to "rise after a brief decline" [98]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For unilateral trading, go short first and then long between 1600 - 1700. For arbitrage, focus on the 5 - 9 positive spread. For options, the lower bound is 1600, and the upper bound is 1700 [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - As the reserve demand and export stocking progress, the short - term domestic urea demand has improved. The seasonal increase in compound fertilizer production has also boosted demand. The supply - side production has slightly declined, leading to a slight improvement in domestic supply - demand balance. The futures price has a narrow - range movement, the spot price has a higher bottom, and the basis has strengthened. The urea price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with limited downward space due to export policies and cost support, and no significant upward - driving factors in the short term. The recommended strategy is to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Summary**: With the progress of reserve demand and export stocking, short - term domestic urea demand has improved. The seasonal increase in compound fertilizer production has also driven up demand. The supply - side production has slightly declined, resulting in a slight improvement in domestic supply - demand balance. The futures price has a narrow - range movement, the spot price has a higher bottom, and the basis has strengthened [12]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The enterprise operation rate is 83.91%, a 0.17% decrease from the previous period, but it is at a high level compared to the same period last year. The daily production is 20.15 tons, expected to fluctuate narrowly at a high level in the short term. The enterprise's advance orders are 7.12 days, a 0.59 - day decrease from the previous period [12]. - **Demand**: The profits of all production processes are at a low level. The compound fertilizer operation rate is 34.61%, a 4.29% increase from the previous period, and it will continue to increase seasonally. Future demand should focus on off - season storage and export demand changes [12]. - **Valuation**: The export profit is at a high level, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued. Currently, the domestic urea valuation is relatively low [12]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory is 143.72 tons, a 4.64 - ton decrease from the previous period, due to domestic reserve demand and export stocking. The port inventory is 10 tons, a 1.8 - ton increase from the previous period, and it is expected that the port collection will gradually increase [12]. - **Market Logic**: The combination of reserve demand and export benefits has led to a reduction in high - level enterprise inventory, and the supply - demand has slightly improved. However, the absolute inventory level of enterprises is still high, and the price is mainly oscillating at the bottom [12]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The prices of the 09, 01, and 05 contracts have changed, with the 09 contract decreasing by 14, the 01 contract increasing by 2, and the 05 contract increasing by 1. The 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 spreads have also changed [13]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia have increased to varying degrees, and the basis has strengthened [13]. - **Downstream Market**: The prices of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased, but the profits of compound fertilizers and melamine have changed differently [13]. - **International Market**: The international prices of urea have increased, and the export profit has reached a high level [13]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: The production profit is at a low level but has slightly rebounded [30]. - **Inventory** - **Enterprise Inventory**: The enterprise inventory has decreased, mainly due to domestic reserve demand and export stocking [12]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory has increased, and it is expected that the port collection will gradually increase [12]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Urea Operation Rate**: The urea operation rate has returned to a high level compared to the same period last year [41]. - **Device Maintenance** - **Current Maintenance**: Many enterprises are undergoing maintenance, resulting in a certain amount of production loss [44]. - **Planned Maintenance**: Some enterprises have planned maintenance in the future, which may affect the supply [45]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption Forecast**: The consumption of urea shows certain seasonal characteristics [50]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: The operation rate of compound fertilizers is mainly increasing seasonally, and the profit has changed [53]. - **Nitrogen Source Price Ratio**: The price ratios of urea to other nitrogen sources have changed [56]. - **Melamine**: The operation rate and profit of melamine have changed, and the export volume has also changed [59]. - **Terminal Demand**: The terminal demand is affected by factors such as real estate and exports [67]. - **Export**: The export profit is at a high level, and the export volume has changed [77]. 3.6. Options - Related - The trading volume, open interest, and volatility of urea options have changed, which can reflect the market's expectations and sentiment [91][97]. 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - The report provides diagrams of the urea industry chain, research framework, and industry chain characteristics, which help to understand the overall structure and characteristics of the urea industry [100][102][104].