需求小幅好转，盘面窄幅震荡 尿素周报 2025/11/22 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度总结 | 行情回顾 | 随着储备需求以及出口备货的推进，短期国内尿素需求有所好转，另外复合肥开工的季节性回升也带动需求走高，而供应端 开工小幅回落，国内供需小幅好转，盘面价格窄幅运行，现货底部抬升，基差有所走强。 | | --- | --- | | 基本面 | 供应  企业开工83.91%，环比-0.17%，同比回到高位。 企业预收订单7.12日，环比-0.59日。 需求  各工艺利润均处于低位水平。 | | |  日产20.15万吨，短期预期高位窄幅波动为主。 | | |  | | |  复合肥开工34.61%，环比+4.29%，后续仍以季节性回升为主。 | | |  后续需求关注淡储以及出口需求变化。 | | |  基差有所走强，1-5价差震荡回升 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, urea is expected to fluctuate strongly. Although domestic demand is limited, new export quotas have been issued, increasing the influence of the international market on the domestic market. Some downstream enterprises are replenishing at low prices, and the receipt situation of urea enterprises has improved significantly. - In the medium term, urea is expected to be weak. The influence of the fourth - batch export quota will fade, overall demand will be weak, downstream acceptance will decrease as the ex - factory price rises, and the fundamentals of urea remain loose [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures fluctuated widely and closed at 1665 (0/0%). - Spot market: The ex - factory price increased slightly, and the transaction was average. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Shandong small particles 1600 - 1610 yuan/ton, Hebei small particles 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small particles 1540 - 1560 yuan/ton, Anhui small particles 1580 - 1590 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - In the 46th week of 2025 (20251113 - 1119), the capacity utilization rates of coal - based and gas - based urea in China decreased. The coal - based urea capacity utilization rate was 87.23%, a 0.30% decrease from the previous week, and the gas - based urea capacity utilization rate was 72.55%, a 0.21% decrease from the previous week. This was due to the shutdown of 3 coal - based enterprises' devices and the resumption of 1 coal - based enterprise's shutdown device [4]. Logical Analysis - Supply: Maintenance devices are gradually returning, and the daily output has increased to around 20.4 tons. The inventory of urea production enterprises has decreased by 46,000 tons to around 1.43 million tons, but it is still at a high level. - Demand: The fourth - batch export quota has been issued, increasing the influence of international prices on the domestic market. The compound fertilizer production in central and northern China has basically ended, the grassroots procurement is coming to an end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the demand for raw materials is low. - Price trend: In Shandong, the ex - factory price is expected to decline; in Henan, it is expected to follow the decline; in the delivery area and its surrounding areas, it is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overall, in the short term, urea is expected to fluctuate strongly, and in the medium term, it is expected to be weak [5]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short from high positions, do not chase short positions. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Urea is expected to trade within the valuation range and face short - term pressure in the market [1] - Short - term urea is expected to move in a volatile manner, with the overall upward trend of spot prices expected to slow down, and incremental warehouse receipts putting pressure on the upside of futures prices [3][4] - The domestic urea fundamental pressure is relatively large, but the downward driving force is weakened under the policy regulation. The 01 contract has a strong fundamental pressure level at 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton and a support level at 1550 - 1560 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,640 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,648 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the trading volume was 142,319 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 254,022 lots, down 3,552 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 6,812 tons, up 397 tons; the trading volume was 468.992 million yuan, down 110.461 million yuan. The basis in Shandong area was - 30, up 10; the difference between Fengxi and the futures price was - 140, up 20; the difference between Dongguang and the futures price was - 30, up 20; the spread between UR01 and UR05 was - 77, down 5 [2] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of urea in many enterprises remained unchanged, and the trading price of dealers in Shandong area was 1,610 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The supply - side indicators showed that the operating rate was 84.07%, down 0.34 percentage points, and the daily output was 196,680 tons, down 800 tons [2] 2. Industry News - On November 5, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5781 million tons, an increase of 23,800 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 1.53%. The inventory of some enterprises increased due to factors such as market sentiment and environmental protection warnings, while the inventory of some enterprises decreased [3] 3. Futures Research - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

Core Viewpoint - The urea market is experiencing slight price increases due to improved production rates and market sentiment, but overall demand remains cautious with a focus on export quota developments [2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - Urea prices in Shandong have slightly increased, with small granular urea trading at 1540-1590 RMB/ton and large granular urea at 1740-1760 RMB/ton [2]. - The overall market sentiment has been positively influenced by recent export news, although the follow-up market response has been less than expected [2][4]. - The industry’s daily production rate is reported at 19.59 thousand tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.08 thousand tons from the previous day [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Urea production rates have improved as previously shut-down facilities are coming back online, leading to an accumulation of inventory [3][7]. - As of November 5, total inventory for Chinese urea enterprises reached 157.81 million tons, an increase of 2.38 million tons week-on-week, reflecting a 1.53% rise [3][8]. - Agricultural demand is tapering off as the wheat planting season concludes, while industrial demand is gradually increasing, particularly from compound fertilizer manufacturers [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the new export quota news could lead to a stronger market performance, but caution is advised as the actual impact remains to be seen [4][5]. - There is speculation that export quotas may be significantly relaxed next year, but the export window for this year is likely to remain closed [5][7]. - The overall expectation is for prices to remain volatile with a tendency towards weakness due to limited increases in future export expectations [8].

【冠通期货研究报告】 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 3 日 尿素周报：高价抵触，盘面小幅回调 摘要： 周末以来，尿素报价呈现下调趋势，市场成交疲弱，经销商热情 不高。现货市场上周整体小幅回调，主要下游小麦肥收尾，价格反弹后， 对高价拿货意愿低，上游工厂降价吸单，但后市依然有采购需求，价格 难跌至前低。基本面来看，尿素上游工厂装置多发复产，产量快速回升， 目前尚未开始规模性的限气限产，近期预计高位日产运行。成本端来看， 后续迎峰度冬需求旺盛，煤价有上涨预期，下方水煤浆工艺成本支撑尿 素价格。下游终端需求以华北地区及苏皖地区的小麦肥为主，复合肥冬 储肥目前市场价格博弈中，整体备肥节奏较往年缓慢。本期复合肥工厂 开工负荷及厂内库存均回升，秋季肥收尾阶段，提升开工以保供，终端 需求不及预期，成品库存小幅增加，市场目前关注磷复合肥会议进展。 虽上游工厂产量有所增加，但天气转好，下游农需收尾中，拿货积极性 增加，叠加备肥需求，本期尿素库存去化，但目前依然处于累库周期， 难改累库趋势。整体来说，虽目前需求端呈现偏弱状态，但普遍对后市 依旧持有预期，淡储、复合肥冬储等将影响尿素价格，目前盘面回调中， 我们预计难回前低，低 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - As the urea price in mainstream regions rises by 40 - 50 yuan per ton, downstream follow - up slows down. With short - term low shipment pressure on manufacturers, current enterprise quotes are mostly stable. The agricultural market is expected to last until early November, while industrial procurement is cautious. With the increasing daily output in the urea industry, there may be no substantial export benefits in the short term. After a few days of stalemate, market prices are likely to loosen first, then pressure will shift to manufacturers, and quotes will be adjusted accordingly [2]. - In the short term, the overall spot trading of urea is marginally weakening. In terms of fundamentals, as the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, the daily output of urea will increase in early November while demand gradually weakens, so the price trend is expected to be under pressure. In terms of valuation, the futures 01 contract may face pressure above 1660 yuan per ton. The lower valuation of urea will gradually decline to the cash - flow cost line of fixed - bed units in northern factories as export policies become clearer [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 1635 yuan/ton, the settlement price decreased by 6 yuan/ton to 1635 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 2496 hands to 102,573 hands, the position of the 01 contract decreased by 8953 hands to 273,001 hands, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2318 tons to 2970 tons, and the trading volume decreased by 94.68 million yuan to 335.42 million yuan. The basis in Shandong region increased by 5 to - 25, the basis of Fengxi - disk increased by 5 to - 135, the basis of Dongguang - disk increased by 5 to - 25, and the spread between UR01 - UR05 remained unchanged at - 73 [1]. - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of most urea manufacturers remained stable, except that the price of Jiangsu Linggu increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1650 yuan/ton. The trading prices in Shandong region remained unchanged at 1610 yuan/ton, while that in Shanxi region decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1480 yuan/ton. The operating rate increased by 0.64 percentage points to 79.06%, and the daily output increased by 1500 tons to 184,960 tons [1]. [Industry News] - The follow - up of downstream users slows down as urea prices rise. With the increasing daily output of the urea industry, there may be no substantial export benefits in the short term. After a few days of stalemate, market prices are likely to loosen first, then pressure will shift to manufacturers, and quotes will be adjusted accordingly [2]. - In the short term, the overall spot trading of urea is marginally weakening. The daily output of urea will increase in early November while demand gradually weakens, so the price trend is expected to be under pressure. The futures 01 contract may face pressure above 1660 yuan/ton, and the lower valuation of urea will gradually decline to the cash - flow cost line of fixed - bed units in northern factories as export policies become clearer [2][3]. [Trend Intensity] The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral view [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term price of urea is expected to recover, and it is predicted that the trend of UR today will be oscillating and moderately strong. Although the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply, factors such as the strong international price, increased export volume, and short - term decline in daily production are driving the short - term market improvement [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are starting to decline from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is significantly weak. The price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports is large but has decreased, and the export volume has increased. The domestic urea market is still oversupplied, but the market is expected to recover in the short term. The spot price of the delivery product is 1590 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 45, and the premium/discount ratio is - 2.8%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures price of the urea main contract has rebounded. Industrial demand is weak, while agricultural demand has recovered. The international urea price is strong, and the export volume has increased. Although the domestic oversupply situation is still obvious, the short - term price is expected to recover, and the UR is predicted to trend oscillating and moderately strong today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: Strong international prices, increased exports, and short - term decline in daily production [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Domestic oversupply [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1590, with no change; the Shandong spot price is 1610, with no change; the Henan spot price is 1590, with no change; the FOB China price is 2662 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1635, down 5; the price of the UR05 contract is 1708, down 5; the price of the UR09 contract is 1736, down 9. The basis of the UR01 contract is - 45, up 5 [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 2970, down 2318; the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons; the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.63 million tons; the UR port inventory is 210,000 tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2018, the output was 19.5681 billion, the net import volume was 4.4838 billion, the apparent consumption was 24.0519 billion, and the ending inventory was 236.6 million [9]. - In 2019, the output was 22.4 billion, the net import volume was 4.8794 billion, the apparent consumption was 27.2794 billion, and the ending inventory was 378.6 million. The production capacity growth rate was 8.9%, and the consumption growth rate was 12.8% [9]. - In 2020, the output was 25.8098 billion, the net import volume was 6.1912 billion, the apparent consumption was 32.001 billion, and the ending inventory was 378.3 million. The production capacity growth rate was 15.5%, and the consumption growth rate was 17.9% [9]. - In 2021, the output was 29.2799 billion, the net import volume was 3.5241 billion, the apparent consumption was 32.804 billion, and the ending inventory was 357.2 million. The production capacity growth rate was 11.4%, and the consumption growth rate was 2.6% [9]. - In 2022, the output was 29.6546 billion, the net import volume was 3.3537 billion, the apparent consumption was 33.0083 billion, and the ending inventory was 446.2 million. The production capacity growth rate was 8.4%, and the consumption growth rate was 0.3% [9]. - In 2023, the output was 31.9359 billion, the net import volume was 2.9313 billion, the apparent consumption was 34.8672 billion, and the ending inventory was 446.5 million. The production capacity growth rate was 14.1%, and the consumption growth rate was 5.9% [9]. - In 2024, the output was 34.25 billion, the net import volume was 3.6 billion, the apparent consumption was 37.85 billion, and the ending inventory was 514 million. The production capacity growth rate was 13.5%, and the consumption growth rate was 8.4% [9]. - In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 49.06 billion, with a production capacity growth rate of 11.0% [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that demand was sporadically released, and the ex - factory price stopped falling and rebounded; this week's view is that demand is released periodically, and the ex - factory price is mainly stable with an upward trend [5] - Short - term domestic demand is still limited, agricultural demand has ended, compound fertilizer has not started on a large scale, and the spot market sentiment is still low. The price difference between domestic and international markets is still large, but the export window is about to close, and the impact of the international market on the domestic market is greatly weakened. In the short term, it is slightly stronger, and in the medium - to - long term, it is still weak [5] - The trading strategy is to be slightly stronger in the short term and weaker in the medium - to - long term for unilateral trading, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Due to partial device maintenance, the daily output has dropped to around 187,000 tons. The Indian tender price has dropped to around $400 CFR, and the price difference between domestic and international markets is large, but the export window is about to close [5] - The compound fertilizer production in central and northern China has basically ended, the grass - roots stockpiling is coming to an end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the inventory of urea can be used for more than half a month, so the procurement sentiment for raw materials is not high [5] - The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased by 14,700 tons to around 1.63 million tons, which is at a high level overall [5] - With the firm rise of futures, downstream agricultural follow - up, and better weather, the shipment of compound fertilizer products in the central plains has accelerated, and raw material procurement at low prices for rigid demand has improved the order receipt of manufacturers, and the ex - factory price has been raised [5] - The ex - factory price in the mainstream delivery area has rebounded to around 1,540 - 1,570 yuan/ton, and the downstream acceptance has decreased. After the meeting, there is no stimulus policy, and the demand sustainability needs to be observed [5] 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply - National**: In the 42nd week of 2025 (October 16 - 22, 2025), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 81.23%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.42%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 67.56%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.19% [6] - **Supply - Shandong**: In the 42nd week of 2025 (October 16 - 22, 2025), the capacity utilization rate of Shandong urea was 83.82%, unchanged from the previous week [6] - **Demand - Melamine**: In the 43rd week of 2025 (October 17 - 23, 2025), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 48.30%, a decrease of 6.88 percentage points from the previous week [6] - **Demand - Compound Fertilizer**: In the 43rd week of 2025 (October 17 - 23, 2025), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 27.71%, a week - on - week increase of 3.53 percentage points [6] - **Demand - Compound Fertilizer Urea Demand**: As of October 24, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 850 tons, an increase of 450 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 112.5% [6] - **Demand - Northeast Arrival Volume**: This week (October 17 - 24, 2025), the arrival volume of urea in the Northeast was 110,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week [6] - **Demand - Advance Receipts**: As of October 22, 2025, the advance order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.41 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period [6] - **Inventory - Enterprise**: On October 22, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.6302 million tons, an increase of 14,800 tons from the previous week [6] - **Inventory - Port**: In the 43rd week, the sample inventory of urea ports was 210,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 236,000 tons [6] - **Valuation**: In terms of profit, the price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was firm, the price of Yulin pulverized coal increased, the spot price of urea rebounded, the fixed - bed production had a loss of 125 yuan/ton, the coal - water slurry production had a loss of 110 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production had a profit of 124 yuan/ton. The futures fluctuated, the basis was - 100 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 70 yuan/ton [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Weather improvement has led to increased downstream agricultural purchases and a decline in supply, slowing down the inventory accumulation of enterprises. The futures market has seen four consecutive days of gains, but the spot market has underperformed, resulting in a further weakening of the basis. The 1 - 5 spread is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. Currently, the high - inventory situation of enterprises remains unchanged, suppressing the performance of near - term spot prices, and there is still a lack of strong driving forces [12]. - In terms of fundamentals, the supply side has seen an increase in device maintenance, with the enterprise operating rate at 78.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.61%. The daily production is 18.49 tons, lower than the same period last year. On the demand side, the downstream agricultural demand has increased, and the enterprise's advance orders have risen. The compound fertilizer operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded, reaching 27.71%, a month - on - month increase of 3.35%. Overall, the domestic demand has improved [12]. - Both coal - based and gas - based production profits are at a low level. The strengthening of the futures market has led to a further weakening of the basis, and the 1 - 5 spread remains at a low level. The export profit is at a high level, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued, indicating that the urea valuation is low [12]. - The enterprise inventory is 163.02 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48 tons, and at a high level compared to the same period last year. The port inventory is 21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.6 tons, indicating an accelerated departure of goods from the port [12]. - In the short term, the agricultural demand has improved, and the compound fertilizer operating rate has also increased, leading to an improvement in short - term supply and demand and a strengthening of the futures market. However, the spot market has been slow to follow the price increase, resulting in a weak basis. Currently, consumption still lacks positive factors, and the supply - side enterprise profits are at a low level. Given the low valuation and weak driving forces, the downward space for spot prices is relatively limited. The market is waiting for positive factors to emerge. In the future, as the weather improves, downstream enterprises will have a stronger willingness to stockpile fertilizers, and with the upcoming off - season storage, off - season storage merchants are expected to have a strong purchasing willingness at the current low price level, and there are still some positive factors waiting to be released in the market. In terms of strategy, due to the high inventory, the price volatility has decreased, and the downward space for prices is relatively limited. It is recommended to wait and see or pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The futures market has seen four consecutive days of gains due to improved weather, increased downstream agricultural purchases, and a decline in supply. The spot market has underperformed, and the basis has further weakened. The 1 - 5 spread is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [12]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply side: Device maintenance has increased, with an operating rate of 78.03% and daily production of 18.49 tons. Demand side: Agricultural demand has increased, and the compound fertilizer operating rate has rebounded to 27.71% [12]. - **Valuation**: Both coal - based and gas - based production profits are at a low level. The export profit is high, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued [12]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory is 163.02 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48 tons. Port inventory is 21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.6 tons [12]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term improvement in supply and demand has led to a strengthening of the futures market, but the spot market has been slow to follow, resulting in a weak basis [12]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [12] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Data**: The prices of futures contracts 09, 01, and 05 have all increased compared to the previous week. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei has weakened. The prices of downstream products such as compound fertilizer and melamine have remained stable, with some changes in profits [13]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The futures market has rebounded with a decrease in open interest [28] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: Both coal - based and gas - based production profits are at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [32] - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years, while port inventory has decreased [37] 3.4. Supply Side - **Urea Capacity**: There are plans to put new urea production facilities into operation, but the specific impact on supply needs to be further observed [46] - **Urea Operating Rate**: Short - term maintenance losses have increased, and the operating rate has decreased [48] - **Device Maintenance**: Many enterprises are undergoing routine, loss - based, or policy - based maintenance, and some enterprises have planned maintenance in the future [51][52] 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption**: The monthly consumption shows certain seasonal characteristics [57] - **Compound Fertilizer**: The operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded, and the production profit has changed slightly [61] - **Nitrogen Source Comparison**: The price ratios of urea to synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate show certain trends [63] - **Melamine**: The operating rate, profit, and export volume show certain changes [66][68] - **Terminal Demand**: The demand in industries such as plywood, real estate shows certain trends [74][78] - **Export**: The export profit is good, and the export volume shows certain changes [84][85] 3.6. Option - Related - The open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, trading volume PCR, and volatility of urea options show certain characteristics [95][97][104] 3.7. Industrial Structure Diagram - The urea industry chain has certain characteristics, and the fertilizer demand of domestic and international crops shows seasonal patterns [107][114]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The demand for urea continues to be weak, and the price is oscillating downward. The market sentiment is generally low, with mainstream urea spot ex - factory quotes falling and trading being mediocre [5]. - Some urea production devices are under maintenance, and the daily output has dropped to around 187,000 tons. The export window is about to close, and the impact on the domestic market sentiment is limited [5]. - The compound fertilizer production in central and northern China has basically ended, the grassroots stocking is winding up, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the demand for raw materials is low. The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased to around 1.61 million tons, remaining at a high level [5]. - In the short term, the domestic demand is still limited, the agricultural demand has ended, and the compound fertilizer has not started production on a large scale. The spot market sentiment remains sluggish. Although the price difference between domestic and foreign markets is still large, it only provides some support to the domestic spot market [5]. - The ex - factory prices of some manufacturers have been lowered, but the order intake is still weak. The fundamentals are still relatively loose, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Overview**: The demand for urea is weak, and the price is oscillating downward. Different regions have different price trends. The overall supply is loose, and the demand is declining. The trading strategy is to short on rebounds in the short - term for single - side trading, and to remain on the sidelines for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [5]. - **Core Data Changes** - **Supply**: In the 41st week of 2025 (October 9 - 15), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 83.65%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.74%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 70.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.64%. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate of urea was 83.82%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51% [6]. - **Demand**: In the 42nd week of 2025 (October 10 - 16), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 55.18%, a decrease of 10.29 percentage points from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 24.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.32 percentage points. As of October 17, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer producers in Linyi, Shandong was 400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 220 tons or 35.46%. As of October 15, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.71 days, a decrease of 0.29 days from the previous period [6]. - **Inventory**: On October 15, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.6154 million tons, an increase of 171,500 tons or 11.88% from the previous week. As of October 16, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 446,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons or 7.47% from the previous week [6]. - **Valuation**: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal is firm, the price of Yulin pulverized coal has risen, the spot price of urea has fallen. The fixed - bed production incurs a loss of 110 yuan/ton, the coal - water slurry production incurs a loss of 80 yuan/ton, and the fluidized - bed production has a profit of 150 yuan/ton. The futures are oscillating, with a basis of - 100 yuan/ton and a 1 - 5 spread of - 70 yuan/ton [6]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking The report only lists the sub - items such as "Mainstream Manufacturer Ex - factory Prices", "Basis", "Regional Spread", etc., but no specific content for these sub - items is provided in the given text, so a detailed summary cannot be made.