交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2026-2-25 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率同比处高位，节后随着部分天然气装置重启，预期日产将维持 在高位，整体供应压力仍处历史同期高点。需求端，工业需求整体偏弱，复合肥、三聚氰胺当前 开工均在偏低位置。农需储备需求良好，随着节后春耕需求启动预计仍有上升空间。综合库存继 续回落，去库形态明显。外盘价格维持高位，出口内外价差继续拉大。2月12日，中国氮肥工业 协会发布了《关于市场炒作尿素指导价的说明》，呼吁市场参与者"不传谣、不信谣"，强调中 长期尿素价格应以稳为主。当前交割品现货1830（+20），基本面整体偏多； • 2. 基差： UR2605合约基差-25，升贴水比例-1.4%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR ...

1.1 核心矛盾 南华期货尿素产业周报 ——空仓过节 2026/2/8 联系人 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 从投产格局以及产业周期来看，尿素仍然处于不断释放新增产能导致供应过剩的阶段，在这样的阶段下， 尿素2026年的价格中枢将进一步下移，但下跌的过程中受到出口政策的托底，总得来看2026年尿素价格将依 靠出口政策缓解压力。需求节奏来看，上半年对应农需旺季，大概率暂停出口，上半年尿素行情将依据需求 节奏涨跌，进入下半年后，依靠出口政策缓解国内供应压力，价格走势偏政策主导。对于尿素05合约而言， 对应国内需求旺季，存有涨价预期，尿素价格持续上涨。但伴随价格上行，下游逐步抵触，现货成交转弱， 预计尿素价格短期回调，建议多单离场，节前空仓过节。 尿素现货日产销与尿素期货收盘价 元/吨 尿素平均产销(右轴) 尿素期货主力合约收盘价 1 2 3 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 尿素山东产销季节性 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 2 4 6 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 | | | 资金席位回测一览 * 远端交易预 ...

新华财经北京1月28日电近期尿素市场震荡上扬，交投气氛好转。卓创资讯监测显示，1月27日中国尿素 中小颗粒市场均价1763.10元／吨，环比上涨0.17%。 据卓创资讯分析师耿赛分析，尿素价格上涨支撑主要来自需求端开工好转。最新数据显示，复合肥企业 周度产能运行率49.27%，环比提升6.11个百分点，部分肥企为节后集中发货做储备货源，湖北硫基肥陆 续恢复生产，河南高塔肥开工提升。复合肥企业随行就市备货，叠加淡季储备按部就班推进，缓解尿素 企业库存压力，尿素企业库存82万吨，环比下降2.14%。 后期来看，耿赛认为，一方面，2月上旬重庆和内蒙古部分检修装置恢复，预计日产量增至21万吨以 上。另一方面，需求端随着春节临近，下游复合肥和板材等工业企业开工预计逐步下滑。"基于现阶段 尿素企业预收订单良好，短期收单压力不大，价格下调空间有限，预计价格窄幅下调后进入节日模式- 价格平稳运行。" （文章来源：新华财经） ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The start of agricultural demand is the key to supporting urea prices. Although the fundamentals may deteriorate marginally during the downstream factory holidays, with the approaching spring plowing, urea prices are likely to rise rather than fall [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market Dynamics - Last week, upstream factories supported prices with pending orders, leading to a market inversion. Futures lacked support and downstream demand was weak, but spot prices remained stable. Some factories raised prices slightly over the weekend. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1,690 - 1,720 yuan/ton [2][4][5] 3.2 Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures market showed mixed trends, with an overall increase. As of January 26, the main May contract closed at 1,791 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the settlement price on January 19. Weekly trading volume decreased by 255.34 million tons to 1,206.05 million tons, and open interest increased by 16.736 million tons to 776.372 million tons. The long - term trend remains strong. The futures increase was greater than the spot increase, and the basis weakened. As of January 26, the 05 - contract basis was - 51 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week. The number of urea warehouse receipts on January 26 was 13,274, down 81 week - on - week [7][8][10] 3.3 Urea Supply Side - Last week, urea weekly production increased. From January 15 - 21, weekly production was 1.4238 million tons, up 1.33% from the previous period, with an average daily production of 203,400 tons. Coal - based production increased by 0.74%, gas - based production increased by 5.30%. Small - particle production increased by 1.60%, and large - particle production increased by 0.28%. On January 26, the national daily urea production was 206,100 tons, up 19,000 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 83.68%. Coal prices weakened, LNG prices remained unchanged, synthetic ammonia prices fell, and methanol prices rose [15][17][18] 3.4 Urea Demand Side - As of January 26, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer remained stable week - on - week. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories continued to increase and was higher than the same period in previous years. However, due to cost support for phosphorus and potassium fertilizers, compound fertilizer prices were in a stalemate, downstream demand was weak, and there was a possibility of production cuts due to squeezed profits. As of January 23, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was 63.65%, up 1.47% from the previous period and 3.48% year - on - year. From January 19 - 23, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 63.65%, up 1.47 percentage points from the previous period but lower than the same period last year. Industrial demand only maintained basic needs. As of January 23, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 946,000 tons, down 40,100 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 4.07% and 488,900 tons lower than the same period last year. Port inventory was 134,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [20][22] 3.5 International Market - Export restrictions in China and Iran have pushed up international urea prices. India is expected to issue a tender in February, and there is also import demand in Mexico and Latin America due to supply shortages. As of January 23, small - particle FOB prices in China increased by 15 US dollars/ton week - on - week to 420 US dollars/ton, and large - particle FOB prices in China increased by 10 US dollars/ton week - on - week to 425 US dollars/ton. FOB prices in other regions also showed varying degrees of increase [24]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, urea continues its oscillating pattern with low - price procurement. Attention should be paid to external disturbances. Mainstream factory ex - factory prices in most regions are stable, but market sentiment is low and trading is weak. Industrial compound fertilizer开工率 has increased, but raw material and finished - product inventories are high, and grass - roots orders are scarce. Agricultural procurement is mainly for rigid demand, and traders are starting to sell due to fear of high prices. New orders are weak [4]. - Domestic gas - head maintenance devices have partially returned, and the daily output has rebounded to over 200,000 tons, running at a high level. The Indian tender result is CFR $420 per ton, with a total counter - offer of around 960,000 tons from the east and west coasts. Although international prices have been rising, the domestic - international price difference is still large, but there are no new domestic quotas, so the overall impact is limited [4]. - The compound fertilizer开工率 in the Central Plains and Northeast regions is stable. Compound fertilizer enterprises that stopped production due to environmental protection in Hebei and Henan have resumed production, and enterprises with low raw material inventories are purchasing at low prices. The procurement progress of off - season storage enterprises has basically reached over 70%, and the procurement intensity will gradually slow down [4]. - As the ex - factory price rises, downstream resistance increases, traders sell due to fear of high prices, agricultural procurement enthusiasm cools down, factory orders weaken, and ex - factory quotes start to decline. The futures price decline further cools the spot market sentiment. Although the overall order - receiving situation has improved after the urea manufacturers lower the ex - factory quotes, downstream customers in high - price sales areas still resist. In the short term, it will continue to oscillate, and cautious operation is recommended [4]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, short at high prices and do not chase short positions; for arbitrage, wait and see; for over - the - counter trading, wait and see [4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 2. Core Data Changes - **Supply - National**: In the 3rd week of 2026 (20260115 - 0121), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 95.30%, a week - on - week increase of 0.70%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 54.07%, a week - on - week increase of 2.72%. There were 3 new coal - based device shutdowns and 4 coal - based enterprise shutdown devices resumed production during the period [5]. - **Supply - Shandong**: In the 3rd week of 2026 (20260115 - 0121), the capacity utilization rate of Shandong urea was 97.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The Ming Shui device had a slight production reduction, and other enterprises' production was basically normal [5]. - **Demand - Melamine**: In the 4th week of 2026 (20260116 - 0122), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 63.65%, an increase of 1.47 percentage points from the previous week [5]. - **Demand - Compound Fertilizer**: From 20260116 - 0122, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer in this cycle was 42.96%, a week - on - week increase of 2.88 percentage points [5]. - **Demand - Compound Fertilizer Urea Demand**: As of January 23, 2026, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,840 tons, an increase of 460 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 33.33% [5]. - **Demand - Northeast Arrival Volume**: From 20260116 - 20260123, the arrival volume of urea in the Northeast was 90,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week. Downstream factories and traders mainly purchase low - price goods for rigid demand and resist price increases [5]. - **Demand - Advance Receipts**: As of January 21, 2026, the advance order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.88 days, a decrease of 0.18 days from the previous cycle, a week - on - week decrease of 2.97% [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprise**: On January 21, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 946,000 tons, a decrease of 40,100 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.07%. The inventory reduction was mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia [5]. - **Inventory - Port**: As of January 22, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 134,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - **Valuation**: In terms of profit, the price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal rebounded, the price of Yulin pulverized coal was weak, the urea spot price increased, and the urea production profit expanded. The fixed - bed production profit was 70 yuan/ton, the water - coal - slurry production profit was 150 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production profit was 390 yuan/ton. The futures price rebounded, the basis was around - 80 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 28 yuan/ton [5]

| 【基本面跟踪】 | | --- | 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,775 | 1,772 | 3 60709 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,768 | 1,781 | -13 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 175,891 | 115,182 | | | | （05合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 233,074 | 235,887 | -2813 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 13,355 | 13,355 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 621,930 | 410,186 | 211744 | | | 基 差 | | 山东地区基差 | -25 | -22 | - 3 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -145 | -142 | - 3 | | | | 东光-盘面 | （最便宜可交割品） | -45 | - ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that due to high - price resistance, urea would fluctuate. This week's view is that with low - price procurement, urea will continue the fluctuating pattern, and external disturbances should be noted. The mainstream ex - factory prices in major regions have remained stable overall since the weekend, with low market sentiment, weak trading, and sporadic orders received by manufacturers. In Shandong, Henan, and delivery areas, ex - factory prices are expected to remain firm. The daily output of domestic urea has rebounded to around 200,000 tons. The Indian tender result is CFR $420 per ton, with a counter - offer of around 960,000 tons, and the impact on the domestic market is limited. The compound fertilizer开工率 in the Central and Northeast regions has increased, and raw material inventory is being replenished at low prices. The procurement intensity of seasonal storage enterprises will gradually slow down. As the ex - factory price rises, downstream resistance emerges, and the ex - factory price will mainly decline. The trading strategy is to go short unilaterally without chasing the short, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Data Changes - Supply: In the 2nd week of 2026 (January 8 - 14), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 94.60%, a 1.54% increase from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 51.35%, a 3.79% increase. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate was 97.90%, a 1.11% decrease [5] - Demand: In the 3rd week of 2026 (January 9 - 15), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.18%, a 7.83 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.08%, a 2.91 - percentage - point increase. As of January 16, 2026, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,380 tons, a 12.66% decrease from the previous week. The arrival volume of urea in the Northeast this week was 95,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous week. As of January 14, 2026, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.06 days, a 5.46% decrease from the previous period [5] - Inventory: On January 14, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 986,100 tons, a 3.53% decrease from the previous week. As of January 15, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 134,000 tons, a 4.29% decrease from the previous week [5] - Valuation: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal rebounded, the price of Yulin pulverized coal was stable, the spot price of urea increased, and the production profit of urea expanded. The fixed - bed production profit was 70 yuan per ton, the water - coal - slurry production profit was 150 yuan per ton, and the entrained - flow bed production profit was 390 yuan per ton. The futures rebounded, the basis was around - 80 yuan per ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 28 yuan per ton [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - In the short term, the urea price is expected to correct due to downstream resistance and weakening spot trading, but the correction amplitude is limited due to strong agricultural demand expectations, and it remains bullish in the medium term [4]. - The demand - side drive is neutral - slightly strong due to continuous procurement by reserves and the grass - roots level, and whether the drive can go further up depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking [4]. - For the 05 contract, the fundamental resistance level is around 1,830 yuan/ton (policy pressure line), and the fundamental support level is expected to be around 1,700 - 1,720 yuan/ton due to strong agricultural demand expectations in 2026 [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,777 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1,779 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 107,441 lots, the position volume of the 05 contract was 232,407 lots, the warehouse receipt quantity was 12,850 tons, and the turnover was 382.293 million yuan. The Shandong regional basis was - 27, the UR05 - UR09 spread was 23 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of some urea manufacturers remained unchanged, such as Henan Xinlianxin at 1,770 yuan/ton, Shandong Ruixing at 1,740 yuan/ton. The price of Yankuang Xinjiang increased by 10 to 1,320 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanxi Fengxi decreased by 15 to 1,610 yuan/ton. The trading prices in Shandong and Shanxi regions were 1,750 yuan/ton and 1,610 yuan/ton respectively, with the Shandong price down 10 [2]. - **Supply - side Indicators**: The operating rate was 85.19%, up 0.47 percentage points, and the daily output was 200,580 tons, up 1,100 tons [2]. 2. Industry News - On January 7, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0222 million tons, an increase of 0.003 million tons or 0.29% week - on - week. The inventory in some provinces decreased, including Henan, Heilongjiang, etc., while in some provinces increased, such as Anhui, Hainan, etc. [3] - The urea trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the urea market is expected to experience a downward trend in 2025, with a price range between 1915 yuan/ton and 1585 yuan/ton, reflecting a volatility of 17.23% due to high supply and seasonal demand fluctuations [1] - In 2026, the urea industry will continue to expand capacity, but demand growth is limited, leading to a forecast of weak price fluctuations [1][2] Group 2 - The supply-demand imbalance is intensifying, with an additional 6.3 million tons of urea capacity expected in 2025 and a projected production capacity of 7.5 million tons in 2026, which is a 6.56% year-on-year increase [2] - Inventory levels are anticipated to remain above 1 million tons for most of 2025, with even greater pressure expected in 2026 [2] - Agricultural demand is stable but modest, estimated at around 24 million tons in 2025, while industrial demand is expected to decline in 2026 [2] Group 3 - Current profit levels in the industry are relatively good, with no losses reported for fixed-bed units in 2025, and newer coal chemical units showing higher profits compared to older ones [3] - However, profit compression is anticipated in 2026 due to sustained high supply and potential decreases in coal prices, which may weaken cost support for the urea industry [3] Group 4 - Export policies are identified as a significant variable affecting market trends in 2026, with China implementing a quota system in 2025 that allowed for approximately 5 million tons of exports [4][6] - The likelihood of continued domestic exports remains high under conditions of high supply, especially if prices remain low, which could lead to a shift from quota exports to unrestricted exports [6] - Overall, the supply growth is expected to significantly outpace demand growth in 2026, maintaining a surplus in the market and further lowering urea price levels, while export policy changes will be crucial to monitor [6]

Core Viewpoint - China's urea export volume decreased to 601,800 tons in November 2025, but the cumulative export from January to November reached 4,616,300 tons, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2023 [1] Group 1: Urea Production and Prices - Urea production in China for January to December 2025 was 71,130,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with December production slightly rising to 6,040,000 tons [1] - As of January 3, 2026, urea prices in Henan ranged from 1,640 to 1,660 CNY per ton, while in Shandong, prices ranged from 1,660 to 1,690 CNY per ton; CFR China small granular urea was quoted at 400 USD per ton, up by 10 USD from the previous week [1] - Domestic coal-based urea operating rate was 89.5%, up by 2.5% month-on-month but down by 1.3% year-on-year; natural gas-based urea operating rate was 48.4%, down by 1.9 percentage points month-on-month but up by 6.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: New Capacity and Inventory - In December 2025, new urea production capacities included stable operations at Gansu Jinchang Energy (300,000 tons/year) and Gansu Liu Chemical (350,000 tons/year), while the 520,000 tons/year facility by Zhengyuan Hydrogen Energy is delayed until 2026 [2] - Urea production companies' inventory decreased for eight consecutive weeks, reaching 1,019,200 tons by December 31, a reduction of 49,700 tons month-on-month and 531,600 tons year-on-year [2] - Domestic urea port inventory stood at 172,000 tons, showing little change from early December 2025, with most ports maintaining low levels [2] Group 3: International Market Trends - International urea prices have stabilized and increased, with FOB urea prices in China at 400 USD per ton, a week-on-week increase of 10 USD and a year-on-year increase of 150 USD [3] - Despite being in the traditional off-season for agricultural demand, some industrial demand has recovered due to environmental regulations, supporting market sentiment and leading to increased stocking by traders [3] Group 4: Other Demand Factors - The operating rate of domestic compound fertilizers showed insufficient rebound, recorded at 37.75% as of December 25, 2025, down by 1.5 percentage points month-on-month and 3.8 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Urea exports to South America from January to November 2025 totaled 686,000 tons, accounting for 14.9% of total exports, primarily to Brazil and Chile [4] - The ongoing geopolitical situation in Venezuela is expected to drive up international fertilizer prices, potentially increasing China's export prices [4]