【UR周报20250824】第三批出口配额消息落地，盘面冲高回落 日期: 2025-08-24 ZHESHANG FUTURES 【UR周报20250824】第三批出口配额消息落地，盘面冲高回落 核心观点 * 合约: UR601 ® 观点： 尿素 短期易跌难涨，但下方空间有限，在1700价位存在支撑 ® 逻辑： ①近利国内装置计划检修有所趋加。但对供应筑整体影响有限，产量和开工同比维持高位；②需求讲回内攻需进入谈季，工业复合肥开始秋季生产，需求碳整体支撑有限； 忽成本销近规划保持弱势，尿素成本支撑下 移至1500-1600附近。 ④出口政策逐步落地，关注后期具体出口数量。总体来看，国内需求总体有所走弱，供应端压力凸显，关注出口是否能对价格形成支撑， | 产业链操作建议 | | | | | | | | | | 场外报价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 参与角色 | 行为导向 | 情形写向 | 现货散口 | 策略推荐 | 套保衍生品 | 奨 | 套保比例(%) | 入场价格 | 相关场外产品 | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that demand weakened and urea ex - factory quotes mainly declined. This week, due to the new Indian tender, urea prices stopped falling and rebounded. Some device overhauls led to the daily output dropping to around 190,000 tons, still at the highest level in the same period. The new Indian tender of 2 million tons with a September 2nd bid - closing date and an end - of - October shipping date, along with relaxed export policies, boosted the domestic market sentiment. However, overall demand was declining, with high inventories and cautious traders. In the short term, domestic demand was limited, but the Indian tender and low domestic prices were expected to support the market and lead to a short - term bottoming [4]. - Trading strategies include going long on the single - side when prices are low, observing for arbitrage, and selling put options in the over - the - counter market [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overview - Market sentiment was stable, with ex - factory quotes in some areas stabilizing or adjusting. Shandong's quotes rebounded, Henan's remained stable, and prices in the delivery area and its surrounding areas were expected to decline. The overall supply was abundant, and demand was weak, but the Indian tender had a positive impact on market sentiment [4]. 2. Core Data Changes - **Supply**: In the 32nd week of 2025 (20250807 - 0813), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 85.51%, up 1.85% month - on - month; that of gas - based urea was 75.77%, down 0.76% month - on - month. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate was 78.10%, down 1.12% month - on - month [5]. - **Demand**: In the 33rd week of 2025 (20250808 - 0814), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 49.82%, down 11.28 percentage points from the previous week. In the 32nd week of 2025 (20250801 - 0807), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 41.5%, up 2.82 percentage points month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate for compound fertilizer's urea demand was 43.48%, up 1.98 percentage points month - on - month. As of August 13, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.29 days, down 0.24 days from the previous period [5]. - **Inventory**: On August 13, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,400 tons, an increase of 69,800 tons from the previous week. The port sample inventory was 464,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons month - on - month, with a decline rate of 3.93% [5]. - **Valuation**: The prices of Jincheng anthracite lump coal and Yulin pulverized coal rebounded, while the urea spot price declined. The profit of fixed - bed production was 110 yuan/ton, that of coal - water slurry production was 210 yuan/ton, and that of entrained - flow bed production was 360 yuan/ton. The futures fluctuated, with a basis of - 80 yuan/ton and a 9 - 1 spread of - 17 yuan/ton [5].

8月13日，国内尿素现货涨跌互现，区域分化明显。主流产区山东、河南、山西、河北、安徽等地低端 尿素出厂价跌破1700元/吨，并向1650元/吨逼近；新疆尿素报价再跌30元/吨，低至1450元/吨。而个别 地区小幅反弹10~30元/吨。 当日，尿素期货价格下跌，截至收盘，尿素期货主力2601合约报收于1726元/吨，跌幅1.76%。 业内人士表示，上游厂家收单不佳，纷纷降价吸单，市场低端尿素成交略有好转，但中间商出货价格更 低，导致成交价格与厂家出厂报价出现倒挂。 隆众资讯分析师吴苑丽向期货日报记者表示，进入7月后，因农业季节性需求转弱，尿素大多会有一波 下跌行情。今年市场存在出口的松动，因此市场参与者认为尿素价格下行空间并不大。不过，由于尿素 日产量一直偏高，价格又处于年内的中等位置，很难吸引下一波的农业需求，而且出口一直受政策管 控，短时市场有效支撑较弱，行情呈现震荡下行趋势，下游以逢低采购为主，追涨意愿不足。 方正中期期货研究院产业团队负责人夏聪聪表示，尿素货源供应及市场可流通货源充裕，而需求端则表 现疲弱，导致市场买气不足。现货市场参与者信心不足，尽管低价货源增加，但市场整体交投情况并未 有好转。市场买 ...

中原期货研究咨询部 【中原化工】 下游提货积极性不足，秋季肥库存压力较大 ——尿素周报2025.08.11 作者：申文 执业证书编号：F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0022654 shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 0371-58620081 01 周度观点汇总 1.1 尿素周度观点——下游提货积极性不足，秋季肥库存压力较大 | 品种 1. 供应：8月份复产装置较多，供应预计将有所回升； | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2. 需求：秋季肥开工提升，成品库存压力仍较大； 3. 库存：上游尿素企业库存环比小幅下降； | | | | | | 4. 成本与利润：煤炭价格涨势放缓，尿素利润环比小幅下降； | | 新 增 产 能 投 放 | | 5. 基差与价差：9-1价差偏强震荡运行，09基差变化有限。 6. 整体逻辑： | | UR2509合约关 | （下行风险）， | | | | 注 1680-1700 元 / | 吨 宏观利好、出口 | | | 本周国内尿素现货市场价格偏弱运行，当前日产将维持19-20万吨附近波动，8月份前期检 | ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250811: 基本面仍有压力 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日慶 | | | 单位 | 8月8日 | 8月7日 | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | UR01 UR05 山东 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1751.00 1784.00 1760.00 | 1757.00 1793.00 1780.00 | -6.00 -9.00 -20.00 | -0.34% -0.50% -1.12% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1728.00 | 1737.00 | -9.00 | -0.52% | | 山西 | | | 元/吨 | 1650.00 | 1650.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 河南 | 国内现货价格 | | 元/吨 | 1780.00 | 1790.00 | -10.00 | -0.56% | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | 元/吨 | 1760.00 ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 8 月 4 日 尿素日报 【重要资讯】 【尿素】8 月 4 日，尿素行业日产 19.04 万吨，较上一工作日减少 0.04 万吨；较去 年同期增加 1.47 万吨；今日开工 82.24%，较去年同期 79.65%提升 2.59%。隆众统计。 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪表现尚可，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价暂稳，低价成交改善。山东 地区主流出厂报价暂稳，市场情绪表现平稳，工业复合肥开工率略有提升，原料库存充 裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商低价采购， 新单成交平稳，待发充裕，预计出厂报价上调为主；河南地区市场情绪尚可，出厂报价 暂稳，贸易商低价拿货，收单量稳定，成交尚可，待发充裕，预计出厂报价暂稳为主。 交割区周边区域出厂价下调，区内市场氛围表现改善，东北地区暂无采购，交投情绪一 般，农业刚需采购，期现商和贸易商低价拿货，外发订单量增加，新单成尚可，待发充 裕，预计出厂价暂稳为主。部分装置检修，日均产量降至 19 万吨附近，仍位于同期最 高水平。需求端，新一轮印标公布，最终价格较上一期大幅上涨 30 美元/吨以上，当前 国内 ...

研究所 供应宽松延续 价格震荡下跌 2025/08/03 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 尿素基本面 3 后市展望 研究所 P 第 a 一部 r 分 t1 行情回顾 1.1尿素期货主力合约走势（日线） 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 1.2尿素期货基差情况 研究所 山东尿素小颗粒基差（元/吨） 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 研究所 P 第 二部 r 分 a t2 尿素基本面 2.1供给端：尿素开工率情况 研究所 于近5年高位。 本周尿素生产企业 开工率为84.93%， 环比上升1.45%，同 比上升5.79%，仍居 7月30日，山东 尿素小颗粒基差 为28元/吨，环 比上周三下降19 元/吨，同比近 五年居于低位。 数据来源：钢联数据 国信期货 数据来源：卓创资讯 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 7 数据来源：iFinD 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 8 2.2供给端：尿素日均产量情况 研究所 尿 素 日 均 产 量 ...

7月28日，尿素期货盘面表现偏弱，截至发稿主力合约报1746.00元/吨，跌幅2.89%。 【消息面汇总】 机构观点 宏源期货：从基本面来看，尿素的供应压力仍然较大，日产接近20万吨处于高位，企业库存继续小幅去 库，主要是集港增加影响，上游企业库存仍有75万吨左右，从需求上看，7月份的追肥需求仍会为价格 提供支撑，但国内农需一旦转弱，出口需求又得不到补充，则尿素价格将面临较大下行压力。短期内政 策预期或将调整反复，建议暂时观望。 一德期货：行业反内卷及产业结构调整、优化供给和淘汰落后产能，宏观氛围偏强，本周焦煤开始限产 管控，焦煤期货大涨，但尿素行业我们评估竞争充分，跟宏观情绪反弹为主，周五焦煤限仓管控加强， 期货跌停回落，预计宏观情绪或趋于理智，尿素基本面紧平衡，盘面目前偏高估，09预估回落至1740- 1800区间，关注09卖看涨期权，91反套，单边依旧关注远月低多机会。 7月28日，山东地区尿素行情弱势下行，小颗粒主流出厂成交1740-1810元/吨，临沂市场一手贸易商出 货参考价格1780-1790元/吨附近，菏泽市场参考价格1770-1780元/吨附近。 上期中国尿素企业总库存量96.77万吨，高于 ...

第一章 综合分析与交易策略 大宗商品强势反弹，尿素震荡为主 第二章 基本面数据 大宗商品研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2025年7月 银河能化微信公众号 目录 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1、概述 上周观点：大宗商品强势反弹，尿素震荡 GALAXY FUTURES 2 本周观点：需求低迷，尿素回落 周末至今，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价大幅领跌，成交乏力。山东地区主流出厂报价大幅下跌，市场情绪表现一般，工 业复合肥开工率略有提升，原料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货，新单成交乏力，低 价成交尚可，待发消耗，预计出厂报价弱稳为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂报价暂稳，贸易商观望，收单量下滑，成交乏力，待发充裕， 预计出厂报价暂稳为主。交割区周边区域出厂价跟跌，区内市场氛围表现降温，东北地区追肥结束，交投情绪一般，农业刚需采购，期现商 和贸易商出货，外发订单量下滑，新单成交平平，待发充裕，预计出厂价下跌为主。 综合来看：部分装置检修，日均产量降至19万吨附近，仍位于同期最高水平。需求端， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In July, urea prices are still supported, and low - buying opportunities can be noted, but the subsequent turnaround depends on exports. The supply pressure of urea remains high, with upstream inventories close to 1 million tons. Although the top - dressing demand in July will support prices, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 in Shandong remained unchanged at 1682 yuan/ton; in Shanxi, it decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 1.81%. UR05 decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 1694 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 0.12%. UR09 increased by 9 yuan/ton to 1721 yuan/ton, a relative change of 0.53% [1]. Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - In Henan, it remained unchanged at 1780 yuan/ton; in Hebei, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1790 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 0.56%; in the Northeast, it remained unchanged at 1890 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1800 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 0.55% [1]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 8 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream Costs - The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1080 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2930 yuan/ton and 2520 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Jiangsu decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 1.89% [1]. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1707 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1728 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1693 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1721 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1710 yuan/ton. The position of 2509 was 238,027 lots [1].