| | | 尿素早评20250930:假期注意持仓风险 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 变化值 変化值 单位 | | 9月28日 | 9月26日 | | | | | | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1664.00 | 1669.00 | (绝对值) -5.00 | (相对值) -0.30% | | | 尿素期货价格 | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1715.00 | 1720.00 | -5.00 | -0.29% | | | (收盘价) | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1735.00 | 1740.00 | -5.00 | -0.29% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1600.00 | 1600.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1490.00 | 1490.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1610.00 | 1610.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - Although the current spot price of urea is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying at low prices after the spot price stabilizes. It is suggested to pay attention to the buying opportunity of the 01 contract at low prices [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On September 15, compared with September 12, UR01 increased by 20 yuan/ton to 1683 yuan/ton, a change of 1.20%; UR05 increased by 13 yuan/ton to 1731 yuan/ton, a change of 0.76%; UR09 increased by 180 yuan/ton to 1750 yuan/ton, a change of 11.46% [1]. - Among domestic spot prices, Shandong decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1640 yuan/ton, a change of -1.20%; Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1640 yuan/ton, a change of -0.61%; Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1640 yuan/ton, a change of -0.61%. The prices in Shanxi, Hebei, and Northeast remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 33 yuan/ton to -91 yuan/ton; the spread of 01 - 05 increased by 7 yuan/ton to -48 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively; the prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively; the price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 17 yuan/ton to 5083 yuan/ton, a change of -0.33%, and the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5300 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main contract 2601 of urea futures was 1666 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1688 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1665 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1683 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1679 yuan/ton [1]. Long - Short Logic - Recently, the anti - involution sentiment of coking coal has a tendency to rise again. The sharp rise of coking coal in the night session yesterday drove the sentiment of the coal chemical industry to be strong [1]. - From a valuation perspective, the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not high [1]. - From a driving perspective, there are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year. First, there is an expectation of renewal and transformation of old devices on the supply side, with about 20% of urea devices over 20 years old, and the current comprehensive operating rate of urea is over 80%, with little idle capacity. Second, there is an expectation of improvement in exports on the demand side. With the easing of Sino - Indian relations, the urea exports from September to October are quite promising [1].