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食品饮料行业深度报告:食品饮料:存量时代的品牌突围路径
Capital Securities· 2025-10-10 13:12
Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is entering a "stock era" where consumption per capita has peaked, leading to dual pressure on volume and price. This shift necessitates a change in investment logic, with leading companies focusing on shareholder returns and high dividend yields to provide a safety margin [5][18] - Brands are adapting to the trend of consumption substitution by enhancing product cost-effectiveness or quality-price ratios, which may lead to a restructuring of the industry landscape [5] - There are localized opportunities benefiting from consumption upgrades, particularly in categories like juice and liquid milk, where consumers are willing to pay more for improved quality [5] - The emergence of niche products catering to specific consumer groups, particularly among Generation Z, is noted, with these products often having emotional attributes and social relevance [5] - Changes in traffic and channel dynamics present new opportunities for smaller and new brands, with the growth of discount supermarkets and high-end membership stores expected to drive industry growth [5] - Domestic food and beverage brands are increasingly looking to expand overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia, where the market for snacks is projected to exceed $20 billion in 2024, presenting significant growth potential [5] Summary by Sections 1. Characteristics of the Stock Era - The overall consumption market has shown moderate recovery, with retail sales in China reaching 32.39 trillion yuan from January to August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [14] - The food and beverage industry shows internal differentiation, with some sub-sectors like fresh meat and edible oils experiencing growth, while others like liquor and beer face declines [15] 2. Brand Breakthrough Paths in Food and Beverage - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing product value propositions to maintain competitive advantages amid rising consumption substitution trends [5] - It highlights the significance of localized consumption upgrades in specific product categories, which can drive higher consumer spending [5] 3. Sub-industry Analysis - The report provides detailed insights into various sub-industries, including liquor, beer, dairy products, condiments, snacks, and soft drinks, analyzing their performance and market dynamics [7] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading companies in the food and beverage sector are increasingly focusing on shareholder returns, with a notable rise in dividend rates, particularly in the liquor industry [33]