行业点评（R3）- 无重点股票 食品饮料 白酒表现分化，大众品价稳量升 食品饮料行业春节跟踪点评 投资要点： 2026 年 02 月 24 日 评级 领先大市 评级变动： 维持 行业涨跌幅比较 30% 食品饮料 沪深300 % 1M 3M 12M 食品饮料 3.28 -3.44 -3.56 沪深 300 -0.90 4.64 17.14 黄静 分析师 -10% 0% 10% 20% 2025-02 2025-05 2025-08 2025-11 | 执业证书编号:S0530524020001 | | | --- | --- | | huangjing48@hnchasing.com | | | 胡跃才 | 分析师 | | 执业证书编号:S0530525070001 | | | huyuecai@hnchasing.com | | 证券研究报告 投资建议：考虑食品饮料板块低预期、低估值、低持仓的特征，以 及板块呈现企稳改善的态势，我们维持板块"领先大市"的评级。 白酒方面，建议关注品牌力强、量价策略改善的龙头企业；大众品 方面，建议关注β企稳、α持续释放的速冻食品龙头；竞争格局稳 固，价盘有望边际改善的乳品龙头 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Consumer Goods - Snacks and Beverages Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the consumer goods sector, specifically snacks and beverages, during the Chinese New Year period in 2026, highlighting a significant recovery compared to the previous year [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - Overall consumption showed signs of recovery, with essential products and gift boxes performing well during the holiday season [1]. - Discount promotions for core categories and specifications were less aggressive compared to the previous year [1]. - Modern channels and community pathways increased investment in product displays and promotional expenses [1]. Snacks Performance - Snacks performed better in the 2026 Chinese New Year compared to 2025, with hypermarket channels showing strong results [1]. - Data from East China, Central China, and Sichuan-Chongqing regions indicated a 10% year-on-year growth in the snacks category for January-February 2026, with hypermarket channels exceeding 20% growth [1]. - Most brands set their sales targets for 2026 at over 20%, indicating a positive overall trend [1]. - Specific brand performances included: - **Wei Long**: 13% growth in January-February, with a target of 20% for 2026 [1]. - **Yan Jin Pu Zi**: 22% growth, with a target of 20% [1]. - **Three Squirrels**: 5% growth, with a target of 25% [1]. - **Jin Zai Foods**: 17-18% growth, with a target of 15% [1]. - **Qia Qia Foods**: 6% growth, with a target of 15% [1]. Beverage Performance - The beverage sector experienced a healthy shipment performance during the holiday, with significant brand disparities [3]. - Overall beverage shipments grew by 3% year-on-year for January-February, with expectations for double-digit growth in February [3]. - Specific brand performances included: - **Nongfu Spring**: 10% growth, with large packaging water showing double-digit growth [3]. - **Oriental Leaf**: 15% growth, with a target of 15% for 2026 [3]. - **Dongpeng Beverage**: 12% growth, with a target of 25% [3]. - **Kang Shifu**: Improved performance compared to Q4 [3]. - **Yang Yuan** and **Wang Lao Ji** showed slightly weaker year-on-year performance [3]. Recommendations - The overall performance of the snacks category met expectations, with a recommendation to continue focusing on brands like Wei Long, Yan Jin Pu Zi, and Xi Mai Foods for Q1 2026 [2]. - For beverages, the recommendation includes Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring, with expectations of significant growth in Q1 [3].

与重燃的"烟火气"形成鲜明对比的是，陪伴国人多年的春节传统礼品烟酒，正在悄然降温。在山西晋中 某地经营小卖部二十多年的秀英（化名），守着熟悉的货架，对今年春节的消费变化感受格外真切。 "以往从年前开始，烟酒消费就起来了，但是今年春节，烟酒尤其是香烟的销量明显不如往年。"秀英告 诉《华夏时报》记者，现在走亲戚，消费者更多的还是选择牛奶、大米、白面等礼品。"我的理解是大 家更愿意为健康买单，除去春节走亲戚的礼品，目前我的货架上流动最快的商品就是东方树叶。" 本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者何一华 李未来 晋中报道 农历马年春节，是山西正式废止烟花爆竹"禁放令"后迎来的第一个新春。除夕夜，三晋大地鞭炮齐鸣、 焰火冲天，热闹的年味重新回到街巷村落，家家户户在声声爆竹中辞旧迎新，空气中满满的喜庆气息。 店里的老顾客、个体户老板张先生告诉记者，今年春节只买了几盒烟。"以前过年要备好几条烟招待客 人、送礼，现在身边朋友要么戒烟，要么只抽细支烟，拜年也不劝烟劝酒，健康才是头等大事。" 烟酒消费下滑 由于门口守着几个煤矿，客源充足。2005年办齐开店需要的各类许可证手续后，秀英便开了现在的这个 小卖部，靠着烟酒杂 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that despite the prevailing narrative of economic hardship, certain industries are thriving and generating significant profits, particularly in the context of Japan's "lost 30 years" and the evolving consumer behavior in China [3][4]. Group 1: Emerging Business Opportunities - The article identifies eight key industries that are experiencing growth, highlighting that a low-desire society does not equate to a lack of opportunities [4]. - The concept of consumption upgrading and demand migration is presented as the largest business opportunity [5]. Group 2: Second-Hand Economy - In the context of reduced spending on luxury goods, the second-hand economy is flourishing, with companies like "大黑屋" in Japan and "红布林" and "胖虎" in China seeing substantial revenue increases [6][7]. - The article notes that platforms like "闲鱼" and "转转" are experiencing significant user engagement and transaction volume growth [9][10]. Group 3: Pet Economy - The pet economy is highlighted as a growing sector, with young consumers spending on premium pet products despite having fewer children [12]. - Companies like "中宠" and various pet brands are witnessing strong sales growth, indicating a shift in consumer spending towards pet care [13][14][15]. Group 4: Adult Care Products - The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, showcasing the potential of the aging population as a significant economic driver [18][19]. - The article suggests that aging should be viewed as an opportunity rather than a burden, contributing to a multi-trillion dollar "sunset economy" [19]. Group 5: Health Food and Beverages - The rise in health consciousness and demographic changes are driving demand for sugar-free beverages and functional foods, with brands like "东方树叶" and "简醇" gaining traction in China [21][22]. Group 6: Beauty and Aesthetics - The beauty industry continues to thrive, with products like collagen supplements and home beauty devices achieving significant sales, indicating a persistent consumer desire for beauty enhancements [23][24][26]. Group 7: Outdoor and Leisure Activities - The outdoor equipment market is growing, with brands like "凯乐石" and "骆驼" benefiting from increased consumer interest in outdoor activities [29][31]. - The article notes that even in economic downturns, consumers are willing to invest in experiences and leisure [32]. Group 8: Convenience and Time-Saving Products - The "lazy economy" is emerging, with increased demand for frozen foods and smart home appliances that save time, reflecting a shift in consumer priorities towards convenience [39][40]. - The article posits that in a low-desire economy, time-saving solutions may hold greater commercial value than cost-saving measures [42].

Core Insights - The article discusses how certain industries are thriving despite a general perception of economic downturn, highlighting eight key sectors that present significant business opportunities in a low-desire society [3][4]. Group 1: Key Industries - **Second-Hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, represented by companies like Daikokuya, has seen a surge in revenue. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth, indicating a shift in consumer spending towards second-hand goods [6][7][8][9]. - **Pet Economy**: With declining birth rates, young people are spending more on pets, leading to significant growth in pet food and healthcare products. Companies like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China are capitalizing on this trend [11][12][14][15]. - **Adult Care Products**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating a growing demand for adult care products in China, with companies like Kexin poised for growth [16][17][18]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: The rise in health consciousness has led to increased demand for sugar-free beverages and functional drinks, with brands like Dongfang Shuye and Jianchun gaining traction in China [21][22]. - **Beauty Economy**: The demand for beauty products, including collagen supplements and at-home beauty devices, is on the rise, with companies like Jinbo Bio and U like seeing significant sales growth [23][25]. - **Outdoor Recreation**: The outdoor equipment market is booming, with brands like Kailas and Camel experiencing rapid sales growth as consumers seek leisure activities [25][26][27]. - **Emotional Economy**: Products that provide emotional comfort, such as low-alcohol beverages and lifestyle brands, are gaining popularity, reflecting a dual consumer behavior of frugality and indulgence [28][29][30]. - **Convenience Economy**: The demand for convenience foods and smart home appliances is increasing as younger generations spend less time cooking. Brands like Anjijia and Kewotai are seeing steady growth [33][35][36]. Group 2: Market Trends - The article emphasizes that the current economic climate, often viewed as a "winter," presents opportunities for those willing to invest in counter-cyclical sectors [39]. - It suggests that the key to success in a low-desire society is to identify and capitalize on emerging trends and consumer needs, rather than retreating from the market [39].

Core Insights - Coca-Cola's 2025 financial report reveals stagnant global unit case volume despite a 4% price increase, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2][4] - The company reported a revenue of $11.82 billion for Q4 2025, falling short of the $12.03 billion market expectation, primarily due to a 65% decline in North American operating income influenced by a $960 million impairment related to the BodyArmor acquisition [4] - The company's strategy of "volume and price growth" has failed, marking the first instance of zero volume growth in a decade [4][5] Financial Performance - Coca-Cola's total revenue for 2025 reached $47.9 billion, reflecting a 2% year-over-year increase, with organic revenue growth of 5% [4] - The global unit case volume growth rate was recorded at 0%, with all revenue growth attributed to price increases [4] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Q4 net revenue dropped by 7% and operating profit fell by 36%, highlighting core business weaknesses [5] Market Challenges - The rise of domestic brands like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage poses significant external pressure on Coca-Cola [6] - Nongfu Spring reported a revenue of 25.62 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 15.6% increase, while Dongpeng Beverage achieved a revenue of 16.84 billion yuan in the first three quarters, growing by 34.13% [7] - The emergence of low-cost snack retail stores is disrupting traditional pricing strategies, complicating Coca-Cola's market positioning [7] Industry Context - The overall fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector is experiencing collective anxiety, with the Chinese carbonated beverage market size declining by 2.6% in 2025 [8] - Coca-Cola has invested in upgrading five production bases in China over the past three years, which may support future growth opportunities [8]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that despite the prevailing narrative of economic hardship, certain industries are thriving and generating substantial profits, particularly in the context of Japan's "lost 30 years" and its implications for various sectors [3]. Group 1: Economic Trends and Opportunities - The concept of a "low-desire society" does not equate to a lack of opportunities, as there are still significant business prospects available [4]. - The article identifies "consumption stratification" and "demand migration" as the largest commercial opportunities in the current market [5]. - As consumers shift away from purchasing homes and luxury goods, money is flowing into the second-hand economy, with notable growth in Japan's second-hand luxury market represented by companies like Daikokuya [6]. - In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing significant business growth in the second-hand market [7]. Group 2: Emerging Consumer Trends - The article highlights the rise of the pet economy, noting that while young people may not be having children, they are willing to spend on premium pet products [11]. - Companies like Inaba in Japan and Guobao (Zhongchong) in China are seeing strong stock performance due to the growing demand for pet food and related services [12]. - The adult care market is also expanding, with Japan's adult diaper market surpassing $10 billion, indicating a significant growth potential for similar products in China [16][18]. - Health-conscious food and beverage products are gaining traction, with brands like Suntory and Meiji seeing substantial growth due to changing population demographics and rising health awareness [21]. Group 3: Lifestyle and Emotional Spending - The "beauty economy" is thriving, with products like collagen supplements and home beauty devices achieving significant sales, indicating that consumers prioritize beauty even in challenging economic times [23]. - Outdoor leisure activities are becoming popular, with brands like Snow Peak in Japan and various Chinese outdoor brands experiencing rapid sales growth [25][26]. - The emotional economy is also on the rise, with brands like Labubu and Rio catering to consumers' desires for emotional fulfillment and experiences [28][29]. - The "lazy economy" reflects a trend where younger generations prefer convenience, leading to increased demand for frozen foods and smart home appliances that save time [33][35]. Group 4: Market Resilience and Strategic Insights - The article argues that the current economic climate, often perceived as a "winter," presents opportunities for those willing to invest in counter-cyclical sectors [39]. - Companies that can identify and capitalize on these emerging trends are likely to emerge as winners in the low-desire era, as time-saving solutions may hold more commercial value than cost-saving measures [36].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of AI technology is prompting companies to adjust their organizational structures and job roles, leading to a re-evaluation of talent assessment standards and the integration of art into brand building and daily operations [1][3]. Group 1: Art Practices - JD.com plans to build a contemporary art museum in Shenzhen Bay, covering over 10,000 square meters, operating as an independent contemporary art institution, and focusing on themes related to technology, ecology, urbanization, and future living [5][6]. - Tencent is advancing the "Teng Chuang Future" art space, applying technologies like AI and VR/AR in cultural heritage protection and art display, including projects like the digital restoration of Dunhuang murals [8][9]. - Mei Jian Qing Mei Jiu has created China's first art space centered around alcohol, integrating online exhibitions and offline artistic collaborations, promoting Eastern aesthetics in contemporary life [11][12]. - Heytea incorporates artists and design agencies into its brand visual construction, launching global collaborations and themed stores to embed art into high-frequency consumer scenarios [15][16]. - Nongfu Spring integrates art into product packaging, collaborating with illustrators and photographers to create visually appealing designs that enhance brand recognition [20]. - Bilibili extends its online content ecosystem into offline public cultural spaces, showcasing original artworks and inviting creators to participate in exhibitions, enhancing community engagement [22][23]. Group 2: Core Characteristics - JD.com's art museum includes exhibition, performance, and educational spaces, facilitating various cultural activities while aligning with its technological and logistical background [5][6]. - Tencent's art initiatives leverage AI for detail restoration and digital archiving, enhancing efficiency in cultural heritage preservation and creating interactive exhibition spaces [9]. - Mei Jian Qing Mei Jiu collaborates with numerous artists to apply artistic works directly to product packaging, making art a part of everyday consumption [12]. - Heytea's artistic elements are integrated into packaging and store design, enhancing visual experiences and facilitating brand recognition among young consumers [17]. - Nongfu Spring's artistic packaging serves as a high-frequency display medium, reinforcing brand identity through consistent visual engagement [20]. - Bilibili's art practices emphasize community involvement, transforming viewers into participants and creators, thereby extending the lifecycle of content and IP [24]. Group 3: Brand Logic - JD.com's art museum enhances its brand image by adding cultural and emotional dimensions, transitioning from a purely e-commerce platform to a comprehensive institution with technological and cultural attributes [6]. - Tencent's involvement in cultural heritage and digital exhibitions strengthens its brand positioning as a technology and culture hybrid, expanding its business space in the digital cultural sector [9]. - Mei Jian Qing Mei Jiu differentiates itself in a saturated beverage market by enhancing the cultural and emotional value of its products through artistic collaboration [13]. - Heytea's artistic visual strategy helps establish brand recognition and emotional connections with consumers, increasing premium pricing and repeat purchase rates [17]. - Nongfu Spring's continuous design investment builds a stable perception of quality and aesthetics, creating long-term brand assets [20]. - Bilibili's offline exhibitions enhance community ties and user engagement, fostering a participatory culture that extends the relevance of its content [24]. Conclusion - Companies are increasingly entering the art sector through three main approaches: establishing physical cultural spaces, utilizing technology to transform art experiences, and integrating art into products and daily consumption [25].

一年捞金1600多亿，曾一度超过农夫山泉和统一品牌。 三得利，这个被国人喜爱了三十多年的饮料品牌，因名字极具中式韵味，长期被误认为是国货，实则是 日本品牌。 过去39年，凭借出色的本土化策略，它不仅在国内积累了大量忠实用户，也实现了丰厚盈利。 机构数据显示，从2020年开始，其营收和净利连年增长。 2024年财报显示，总营收已经突破1651.8亿元 （RMB）。 | 年度 李俊 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2017 2018 9 2019 V | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | | 截止: | 31/12 31/12 31/12 | 31/12 | 31/12 | 31/12 | 31/12 | 31/12 | | 利润表 > | | | | | | | | 总营收 | ANG AND MAG | 1,178,137 | 1,268,917 | 1,450,397 | 1.591.722 | 1,696,765 | | 毛利 | REC RED MAC | 483,855 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the consumer staples sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - There is an intensified divergence among mid-to-high-end baijiu products, with no discount contraction observed in food and beverage categories [1]. - The report highlights that the wholesale prices of various baijiu brands have shown stability or slight changes, with some brands experiencing price increases while others remain flat or decrease [3][4][35]. - Discounts on representative products in condiments, liquid milk, and soft drinks have widened compared to the end of December, indicating a shift in pricing strategies [19][32]. Summary by Relevant Sections Baijiu Pricing - Guizhou Moutai's wholesale prices for Feitian (case and single bottle) and Moutai 1935 are reported at 1600, 1580, and 630 yuan respectively, with changes of 0, -10, and -10 yuan compared to last month [35]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price is 830 yuan, reflecting a +10 yuan increase from the previous month [35]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 remains at 850 yuan, unchanged from last month [35]. Discount Trends - The average discount rate for condiments decreased from 87.1% to 85.0%, while liquid milk discounts fell from 62.8% to 61.4% [19][22]. - In contrast, discounts for beer, infant formula, and convenience foods remained stable, with beer discounts slightly increasing from 80.3% to 80.7% [20][22][32]. Company Ratings - The report lists several companies with an "Outperform" rating, including: - Guizhou Moutai - Wuliangye - Luzhou Laojiao - Qingdao Beer - China Feihe - Others [1].