与此同时，娃哈哈集团内部动荡继续。 "基本没戏" 10月11日，一个名为"娃小宗"的微博账号已完成平台认证，检索信息显示，该账号认证主体为宏胜饮料集团有限公司，审核通过时间为9月30日，但暂未 发布任何内容。 昨日(10月10日)晚间，宗馥莉再次辞职的消息传出。宗馥莉被曝已于9月12日向娃哈哈集团有限公司辞去公司法定代表人、董事及董事长等相关职务，并 已通过集团股东会和董事会的相关程序。娃哈哈集团相关人士向21世纪经济报道记者确认为"属实"。 该账号粉丝数目前为2501，仍在持续上涨中。而宏胜集团是恒枫贸易有限公司的全资子公司，祝丽丹为法定代表人和总经理，宗馥莉担任董事。 另据媒体报道，10月10日娃哈哈集团召开董事会，除了通过宗馥莉辞职事项外，还任命许思敏为娃哈哈集团总经理，董事长职务空缺。对上述消息，截止 发稿前，娃哈哈集团方面尚未回复。 而有消息人士指出，宗馥莉的再次辞职，主要是因为娃哈哈商标使用权"不合规"。最终，宗馥莉决定经营自己的品牌"娃小宗"。 宗馥莉早早布局 实际上，早在今年5月12日，娃哈哈集团官方公众号"娃哈哈家园"(现更名"哈哈号角")发文中，曝光了一款"娃小宗"无糖茶饮料，口味为"凝香 ...

[Table_Rank] 评级： 看好 赵瑞 分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110522120001 zhaorui@sczq.com.cn [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 9-Oct 19-Dec 28-Feb 10-May 20-Jul 29-Sep 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据 相关研究 [Table_Title] 食品饮料：存量时代的品牌突围路径 [Table_ReportDate] 食品饮料 | 行业深度报告 | 2025.10.10 核心观点 [Table_Authors] [Table_Summary] [Table_OtherReport] 白酒把握估值修复，食品聚焦成长赛 道 政策定调积极，继续看好食饮板块 ⚫ 存量时代下的食品饮料投资逻辑。由于食品饮料主要子行业人均消费量 已经见顶，以及近年来商务需求承压、消费平替现象加深的背景下，酒 水及大众品的价格体系出现下沉趋势，食品饮料整体面临量价双重压 制，行业阶段性进入到存量时代。在存量环境下，食品饮料板块的投资 逻辑也较以往有所变化，部分行业龙头强化股东回报，较高的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential rebranding of Wahaha to "Wah Xiaozong" under the leadership of Zong Fuli, highlighting the risks and implications of such a move in a competitive beverage market [3][5][20]. Group 1: Rebranding Strategy - Wahaha is planning to change its brand name to "Wah Xiaozong" starting from the 2026 sales year, as indicated in a leaked internal notice [9][12]. - The rebranding is seen as a necessary step for Zong Fuli to gain absolute control over the brand, as the current ownership structure complicates trademark usage [12][14]. - Zong Fuli has previously attempted to transfer the "Wahaha" trademark to her personal company but faced legal obstacles, making the rebranding a strategic move to bypass these issues [13][14]. Group 2: Market Position and Challenges - Wahaha's brand value is estimated at 91.1 billion yuan, but changing the name could confuse consumers and lead to a loss of brand loyalty, especially in lower-tier cities [20][21]. - The company has been facing declining sales and increased competition from rivals like Nongfu Spring, which poses a significant challenge for the new brand to establish itself [30][34]. - The rebranding effort may lead to short-term sales impacts, as existing distributors are already struggling with profitability due to recent changes in sales strategies [21][24]. Group 3: Future Prospects - If the rebranding is executed, it represents a gamble on the future of the brand, with the potential for significant market share loss if not managed properly [26][27]. - The company aims to return to a revenue scale of 70 billion yuan in 2024, but faces skepticism about its ability to maintain this performance amid fierce competition [28][29]. - Zong Fuli's strategy includes focusing on product differentiation and maintaining distributor confidence to ensure the new brand can thrive in a competitive landscape [37].

农夫山泉自 2020 年上市以来，最初在流动性牛市和公司良好商业模式的背景 下，资本市场给予其"水中茅台"的高估值溢价，最高时达到 100 倍市盈率。 然而，随着整体消费市场和大盘的回调，公司在 2022 至 2023 年期间主要通 过业绩消化估值，市盈率稳定在 40 至 50 倍之间。每年公司通常会在年初给出 双位数增长指引，到中报时超预期上修。尽管如此，公司从 2019 年以来，包 括水和东方树叶等产品，每年都有翻倍增长，为市场带来许多惊喜。 农夫山泉 20250927 摘要 Q&A 2022-2023 年，农夫山泉通过业绩消化估值，市盈率稳定在 40-50 倍。 公司每年初给出双位数增长指引，中报超预期上修，水和东方树叶等产 品持续翻倍增长，带来市场惊喜。 2024 年 3 月舆情事件影响农夫山泉线上线下销售，全渠道大幅下降， 虽未实质打击产品或经营壁垒，但影响市场和消费情绪。公司推出绿水 应对，虽占小包装水份额，但售价较低，影响整体利润率。 为应对 2024 年挑战，钟睒睒通过访谈阐述理念，坚持产业升级，提高 果子收购价支持农户。年底公司对 2025 年定调积极目标，加大洪水推 广，限制绿水规格，预计 ...

转自：前瞻产业研究院 行业主要上市公司：奈雪的茶(02150.HK)、三只松鼠(300783.SZ)、良品铺子(603719.SH)、康比特 (833429.BJ)、KEEP(03650.HK)等 本文核心数据：相关业务销量;相关业务收入 1、轻食行业上市公司汇总 目前，轻食上市企业数量较少，且上市企业中多为品牌跨界企业，例如新式茶饮奈雪的茶，休闲零食三 只松鼠、良品铺子，功能食品康比特、百合股份等纷纷跨界布局轻食赛道。 资料来源:各公司公告 前瞻产业研究院 @前瞻经济学人APP 图表 1: 中国轻食行业上市公司汇总(一) 产业链细分 产业链环节 公司简称 股票代码 要点 - 关联度 上游+ 包裝耗材( 富岭股份( 001356.SZe 生物降解材料技术、全球化产能布局2 ★★★★+ 301355.SZe 环保纸袋规模化生产、防渗透技术创新领 南王科技(2 ★★★+ 跑行业( 下载炎腕奥 603187.SH 国内商用冷链设备龙头企业2 设备供应(2 ★★★ 银都股份(2 603277.S 国内商用餐饮设备领域的领军企业2 **** H+J 食品原材料( 宏辉果蔬(2 603336.S 农业产业化国家重点龙头企 ...

Core Insights - The beverage market in China is experiencing a significant divide between sugary and sugar-free drinks, with sugary drinks still dominating in many segments despite the rising popularity of sugar-free options [1][2][7] Market Overview - As of Q2 2025, sugary tea is projected to hold a market share of 68%-70% in the ready-to-drink tea category, while sugar-free tea is expected to account for about 30% [2] - The sales volume of sugary tea consistently exceeds that of sugar-free tea by nearly double, particularly in lower-tier cities where brands like Kang Shifu's iced tea remain dominant [2][3] Company Performance - Kang Shifu's beverage business reported revenue of 51.621 billion yuan in 2024, with the tea segment contributing 21.7 billion yuan, marking an 8.2% year-on-year growth [3] - Kang Shifu's iced tea alone achieved sales exceeding 12.7 billion yuan, making it the first iced tea product in China to surpass the 10 billion yuan mark [3] - Unification's tea beverage revenue reached 8.575 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13.13%, primarily driven by sugary products [3] Competitive Advantages - Sugary tea's resilience in the health-conscious market is attributed to its strong distribution capabilities, with Kang Shifu having over 3 million retail terminals nationwide and a 90% distribution rate in lower-tier markets [4] - The cost structure of sugary tea is more favorable, with lower production costs compared to sugar-free alternatives, which require higher quality ingredients and more complex production processes [4][5] Consumer Behavior - Consumer preferences in lower-tier markets prioritize taste and price over health considerations, with a significant portion of consumers associating sugar-free drinks with inferior taste [5][6] - The emotional connection to sugary drinks, often tied to childhood memories, further solidifies their market position [6] Strategic Responses - Traditional beverage companies are adopting a dual strategy, maintaining their sugary product lines while also introducing sugar-free options to cater to changing consumer preferences [7][8] - Kang Shifu has launched various innovative flavors of iced tea while also introducing sugar-free variants to appeal to health-conscious consumers [8] - Nongfu Spring has entered the sugary tea market with a new product aimed at younger consumers, indicating a shift in strategy to diversify their offerings [9]

Core Insights - The beverage market in China is experiencing a significant divide between sugary and sugar-free drinks, with sugary drinks still dominating in many segments despite the rising popularity of sugar-free options [3][4][6] - The market share of sugary tea is projected to remain around 68%-70% by Q2 2025, while sugar-free tea is expected to hold about 30% [4] - Traditional beverage giants like Master Kong and Uni-President continue to lead the sugary tea market, with Master Kong's beverage revenue reaching 51.621 billion yuan in 2024, and its iced tea sales exceeding 12.7 billion yuan [6][7] Market Dynamics - Sugary tea maintains a strong market presence due to its extensive distribution networks, with Master Kong having over 3 million retail terminals and a 90% distribution rate in lower-tier markets [7] - The cost structure of sugary drinks is more favorable, allowing for lower retail prices compared to sugar-free alternatives, which often require higher-quality ingredients and more complex production processes [7][8] - Consumer preferences in lower-tier markets lean towards taste and price, with 45% prioritizing "affordable price" and 38% "good taste," while only 12% focus on health concepts [8] Competitive Strategies - Companies are adopting a "dual-line strategy" to balance sugary and sugar-free products, allowing them to maintain their market position while preparing for future trends [9][10] - Master Kong is innovating within its sugary tea line while also introducing sugar-free options, such as the zero-sugar iced tea launched in 2021 [10] - Nongfu Spring, a leader in the sugar-free tea market, is also venturing into sugary tea with new product launches aimed at younger consumers [11] Consumer Trends - There is a growing awareness among consumers regarding sugar content, with a significant increase in searches for "low sugar" options [9] - Despite the popularity of sugar-free drinks, many consumers still associate them with inferior taste, leading to a preference for familiar sugary flavors [8][9] - The beverage industry is witnessing a shift in consumer behavior, with a notable increase in demand for low-sugar and zero-additive products projected to reach 71.6% by 2025 [9]

文 | 略大参考 付饶 8月底，宗馥莉接受了财经独家专访，坦言2025年娃哈哈业绩承压，上半年销量增速回落。 多项关键的数据也出现了下滑。尼尔森数据显示，AD钙奶在华东地区销售额下降37%，纯净水市占率从18%跌至12%。 这是一份惨淡的数据。对于任何一家饮料公司来说，二季度作为主要的销售旺季，通常都该是全年表现最好的一个季 度，业绩下滑本身就是消极信号。 尤其对于娃哈哈来说，AD钙奶和纯净水是娃哈哈的两大重要收入构成，华东地区是全国最大的饮料消费市场（占全国 总销售额的24.8%），也是娃哈哈起家、渠道铺设率最高的地区。 表面上，关键业务和关键销售市场的失利，娃哈哈看似突然卖不动了。 实际上，娃哈哈已经原地踏步很久了。 01 原地踏步 在软饮料市场，中国没有任何一家饮料公司会否认自己对可口可乐的执念。 但曾经打服可口可乐的，只有娃哈哈。 1998年，7家本土可乐挑战外来【两乐】，均受到惨遭失败后，宗庆后推出了一款中国人自己的可乐——非常可乐，销 量一度接近可口可乐和百事可乐。对此，可口可乐前总裁杜达夫曾给予了高度评价："将来，可口可乐在中国唯一的对 手可能是来自娃哈哈的挑战。" 好景不长，这句话在不到20年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current chairman of Wahaha Group, Zong Fuli, plans to abandon the "Wahaha" brand established by her father and replace it with a new brand "Wawaizong" starting from the 2026 sales year due to ownership and trademark usage issues [1][4][6]. Group 1: Brand Transition - The decision to launch a new brand "Wawaizong" comes after the failure to transfer the "Wahaha" trademark to a company fully controlled by Zong Fuli, which would have allowed her to maintain control over the brand [6][7]. - The new brand "Wawaizong" has already seen the application for 45 trademarks covering various international categories, indicating a significant push towards establishing this new identity [9]. Group 2: Sales Challenges - Wahaha's sales have been declining, with reports indicating a drop in sales by 15% to 40% in various regions, attributed to market saturation and increased competition [12][13]. - The beverage industry is facing a downturn, with many retailers still selling stock from previous months, leading to concerns about future sales performance [11]. Group 3: Distributor Concerns - Distributors express skepticism about the new brand, fearing that consumer recognition and acceptance of "Wawaizong" will be challenging, especially in lower-tier markets where brand loyalty is strong [10][12]. - Many distributors are struggling with high inventory levels and low profit margins, with Wahaha's profit margins reported at only 10%, significantly below the industry average of 15% [22][24]. Group 4: Market Competition - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with brands like Nongfu Spring and others gaining market share through aggressive pricing and marketing strategies, further complicating Wahaha's position [19][28]. - The introduction of low-cost alternatives in the market has led to price wars, making it difficult for Wahaha to maintain its pricing structure and market presence [14][19]. Group 5: Internal Challenges - The company is facing internal challenges, including a complex product line that lacks focus, which hinders its ability to adapt to market changes effectively [36][37]. - The shift in strategy towards larger distributors has created instability in the distribution network, leading to fears among smaller distributors about their future viability [30][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the consumer sector, particularly focusing on leading companies in the Hong Kong stock market [1]. Core Insights - The consumer sector's performance has shown a significant recovery, with a 55.8% increase over the past 12 months, indicating strong growth potential [3]. - The report highlights the importance of consumption support policies introduced recently, which are expected to stabilize consumption growth in the upcoming quarters [7]. - Key recommendations include focusing on undervalued leading companies and sectors with significant growth potential, such as snacks, beverages, and health products [8][9]. Industry Overview - The consumer sector comprises 1,214 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 18,636.7 billion and a circulating market value of 17,056.8 billion [1]. - The retail sales growth rate for August was 3.4%, slightly lower than expected, but the overall trend is expected to improve due to upcoming holidays and promotional events [6][7]. - The beverage sector is highlighted for its strong performance, particularly companies like Nongfu Spring, which saw over 30% sales growth in August [8]. - The snack sector is also recommended, with companies like Wei Long benefiting from back-to-school stocking, showing a 20-25% increase in sales [8]. - The health product sector is projected to grow, with companies like H&H International Holdings expected to see an upward revision in profit forecasts [8][9]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies such as Nongfu Spring in the beverage sector and Wei Long in the snack sector, both of which are expected to perform well in the near term [8][9]. - Traditional consumer leaders like Haitian Flavoring and Li Du are also highlighted for their growth potential and strategic initiatives [9]. - In the electronics sector, companies like Yadi Holdings and Aima Technology are recommended due to their low valuation and growth prospects [12]. Market Trends - The report notes a shift in consumer preferences towards high-quality and innovative products, particularly in the health and wellness sectors [18]. - The overall market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of gradual recovery in consumer spending supported by government policies [7][18].