这篇国际评论，主要来分析下当下的房地产的形势，中介行业转型是必要的吗？ 聊中介不必一上来就贴"黑中介"标签，这个行业本质是时代的晴雨表，如今正经历一场生死转型，龙头贝壳的财报早已给出答案，多数人只看到中介日子不 好过，却没读懂这背后是行业逻辑的彻底重构。 看房产一哥如何在地产"寒潮"中转型 国家统计局数据直观反映市场寒意：去年商品房销售额96750亿元，较前年下滑17.1%；今年1-10月销售额69017亿元，同比跌幅约10%左右。 二手房市场更特殊，网签面积同比增长4.7%，销售额却因单价下跌同步下滑，典型的"量增价减"，中介的盈利空间被直接压缩。 存量房业务更明显，交易额5056亿元增长5.8%，收入却下降3.6%，核心原因就是中介费模式的变革。 过去中介双边收费，买卖双方通吃，利润丰厚，如今政策导向是引导交易双方共同承担经纪服务费用，再叠加加盟店恶性价格战，返佣比例不断攀升，直到 监管出手才有所收敛。 这种内卷下，中介费想回升根本不现实，毕竟市场购房需求本就疲软。 绝境之下，贝壳的转型路径很有代表性。上半年新房业务贡献反超二手房，这在大城市尤为明显，售楼处里中介派驻人员远超开发商自有员工，和中原地 产、 ...

2026年将呈现出哪些特点？可以概括为两个关键词：不确定性与可能性。 文/吴晨 不确定性不言而喻。一边是以"做交易"为行事逻辑的特朗普持续打破全球既有秩序：以自我为中心、以 利益为上，政策缺乏持续性，全世界都需要适应他的多变。如果说这种不确定性更多体现为随个人偏好 起伏的"随机波动"，那么，技术狂飙所带来的不确定性，其背后则蕴含着多种可能性。 一种可能是AI泡沫的破裂。历史上的技术浪潮，大多经历过膨胀与破裂的过程，AI不可能例外。但如 果放长时间尺度来看，我们仍处在AI发展的1.0阶段，类似于世纪之交的互联网1.0时期。因此，即便泡 沫破裂，也不会改变AI长期进化的方向。 另一种可能性，是AI对职场带来的巨大冲击。2026年是AI Native（AI原住民）毕业的第一年。他们也 是第一批在GPT环境中成长起来、同时又目睹入门级工作被大规模替代的一代人。AI将如何重塑职场， 2026年或将给出初步答案。 回顾过去四分之一个世纪，iPhone时刻与诺基亚危局，或许是理解不确定性与可能性最具代表性的案 例。新技术只有抵达"iPhone时刻"，才能真正改变消费者行为；而在位者一旦误判趋势，往往会从巅峰 迅速坠落。"门 ...

其二，"租购并举"格局逐步形成。 中新社北京12月11日电 (记者 庞无忌)经历4年多的调整和再平衡，中国房地产市场已在多个领域显现重 大变化。行业专家指出，楼市正自发调整以适应高质量发展新阶段，其供求结构、交易格局与企业运行 模式等均在积极转型。 其一，交易总量逐步趋稳。 房地产交易中，二手房正占据越来越大的份额。重庆大学副校长刘贵文指出，传统以新房销售为主的增 量交易正走向新房和二手房并举，并进一步迈向以二手房交易为主的成熟市场格局。 数据显示，今年1至11月，全国二手房交易网签面积在房屋交易总量中的占比升至45%。从国际经验 看，进入城镇化后期，以存量交易为主是房地产市场发展的普遍规律。 一二线热点城市已率先进入存量时代。据中指研究院统计，今年1至11月，四个一线城市二手房成交套 数占总成交量的比重均已超六成，其中北京二手房成交量占比超八成。除一线城市外，刘贵文表示，重 庆、成都、杭州、南京等重点二线城市的二手住房成交比例也已超过新房。二手房市场对新房市场 的"替代效应"日益明显。 在此背景下，分析房地产市场走势，需将新房与二手房的总供给与总需求纳入同一分析框架。数据显 示，2025年前三季度，重点30 ...

前言 近年来，中国物业管理行业正经历一场深刻变革。随着房地产市场的调整和宏观经济环境的变化，行业从过去依赖增量扩张 的"规模红利期"，逐步转向以存量资产为主导的高质量发展阶段。2024年百强企业管理面积均值为6946.30万平方米，同比增长 仅2.18%，增速持续放缓。这一数据清晰地表明，物业管理行业已经全面进入存量时代。在这个转折点上，企业如何调整战略、 提升服务质量、挖掘新的增长点，成为行业关注的焦点。 行业变革：从规模扩张到质量提升 物业管理行业的转型并非偶然，而是市场发展的必然结果。2024年，全国新建商品房销售面积约9.74亿平方米，同比减少 12.86%，房地产开发企业新开工房屋面积同比下降22.99%。这些数据充分说明，房地产增量市场持续收缩，物业管理行业难以 再依靠新增项目实现规模的高速增长。 在这一背景下，物业服务企业的经营策略发生了根本性转变。过去追求"规模至上"的发展模式正在被"效益优先"所取代。2024 年，百强企业营业成本率为80.13%，较2023年提升0.98个百分点，虽然成本管控压力加大，但企业正通过优化组织架构、落实 扁平化管理、科技赋能等方式，努力提升运营效率。 更为重要的 ...

存量市场的崛起已现明确数据支撑。2025 年国内二手房成交面积预计增长 5% 至 6.3 亿平方米，占市场份额达 46%；高盛更预测，到 2035 年二手房销量 将达 8—9 亿平方米，规模相当于 2024 年全年新房销量。这一转变将激活全新价值链条：存量房老化改造、社区运营等细分领域崛起，带动建材、家装等 上下游产业形成 5.7 万亿元市场规模。按每年 1% 的翻新率计算，存量房市场将持续释放稳定需求，成为抵消新房下滑、稳定市场的 "新引擎"。 行业格局的 "马太效应" 将同步加剧。高盛预测，中国前十大开发商市场占有率将从 2024 年的 21% 跃升至 2025 年的 50%，在一二线城市这一比例更将达 60%。这意味着中小房企生存空间进一步压缩，具备资金实力、运营能力与品牌优势的头部企业将主导市场，行业集中度大幅提升。 投资逻辑也随之重构，城市分化成为核心特征。前十大房企高层在高盛报告中明确指出，未来值得布局的仅有北上广深四大一线城市，以及杭州、苏州、 南京、合肥、西安、成都等强二线城市 —— 这些区域作为中国经济活力核心区，人口流入与改善需求稳定，将成为市场 "压舱石"。反观三四线城市，若 缺乏产业与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is expected to see structural opportunities by 2026, driven by policies and market conditions, with three main growth engines: new energy, electronics, and computing power [1] Summary by Sections 2025 Review - The construction materials index and fundamentals showed signs of recovery, with the SW construction materials index increasing by 21.37% from the beginning of the year to November 12, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.30 percentage points [2] - Sub-industry performance was mixed, with the fiberglass manufacturing sector leading gains due to the AI computing power boom [2] - Despite a slight revenue decline of 5.74% year-on-year, the industry saw a significant profit improvement, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 21.46% [2] 2026 Outlook - Structural investment opportunities in the construction materials industry are expected to emerge due to intensified policy regulation and sustained high demand in emerging sectors [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to reshape the competitive landscape in traditional materials like cement and glass, improving supply-demand dynamics and gradually restoring industry profitability [3] - The growth of new energy, electronics, and computing sectors will benefit leading companies with technological barriers and production capabilities, particularly in high-performance fiberglass [3] - The demand for renovation and urban renewal in the real estate sector will favor consumer building material leaders with strong channel layouts, brands, and product quality [3] Sub-industry Outlook - **Cement**: Supply regulation effects are expected to improve profitability, with major projects supporting future demand and leading companies expanding into overseas markets [4] - **Fiberglass**: Continued high demand from the wind power and electric vehicle sectors is expected to support sales, with AI computing needs driving fiberglass demand [4] - **Consumer Building Materials**: Urban renewal is likely to boost demand for renovation and repair, while consumption upgrades will increase the demand for high-quality green materials [4] - **Glass**: Prices remain under pressure, but the "anti-involution" policy may help ease supply-demand imbalances [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on three investment themes: 1. Traditional building materials benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, with recommended companies including Huaxin Cement, Shangfeng Cement, and Conch Cement [4] 2. Emerging sectors with sustained high demand, recommending companies like China Jushi and China National Building Material [4] 3. Consumer building material leaders with strong retail channel layouts, recommending companies such as Oriental Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, Sankeshu, and Tubao [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the entry of the rental giant Ziroom into the second-hand housing market with its new business, Ziroom Meijia, amidst a declining real estate market in China [2][3][4] - Ziroom aims to address the evolving needs of buyers and sellers in a market characterized by increased inventory and higher quality expectations from consumers [4][9] Group 1: Market Context - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a decline in both transaction volume and prices, prompting Ziroom to enter the second-hand housing sector at a seemingly unfavorable time [3][4] - The shift from an investment-driven market to one focused on living quality has changed buyer behavior, with buyers becoming more discerning and requiring better service [8][10] Group 2: Business Model - Ziroom Meijia's business model includes separate service managers for sellers and buyers, offering tailored solutions and reducing commission fees by 50% [5][22] - The company utilizes technology such as VR viewings and AI-assisted searches to enhance transaction efficiency [5][10] Group 3: Service Offerings - Ziroom offers three types of housing products: "Huanxin" for basic renovations, "Qingshui" for older homes, and "Xinshe" for high-end, smart home renovations [16][21] - The company emphasizes the importance of quality control over the properties listed, ensuring that not all available units are put on the market [15][16] Group 4: Strategic Vision - Ziroom's strategy is to provide comprehensive housing services throughout the lifecycle of a home, adapting to the changing demands of urban residents [25][28] - The company aims to create a new business model that focuses on customer needs and the entire living experience, rather than just transactions [27][28]

Core Insights - Vanke's founder Wang Shi has made significant predictions about the future of China's real estate market, emphasizing a structural transformation characterized by "three trends, two shifts, and one core" [4][10]. Group 1: Trends - The first trend is the long-term adherence to the "housing is for living, not for speculation" principle, which will become a cornerstone of the Chinese real estate market [6]. - The second trend indicates a shift in the industry's focus from scale expansion to quality improvement, as the market enters a "stock era" with a noticeable slowdown in new housing supply [6]. - The third trend highlights an increasing market differentiation, with urban areas experiencing varied dynamics based on population inflow and product segmentation [6][10]. Group 2: Shifts - The first shift involves a transformation in developers' operating philosophies, moving from high-leverage, high-turnover models to a more stable, cash-focused strategy [8]. - The second shift reflects an upgrade in consumer purchasing attitudes, where the new generation prioritizes suitability over mere ownership, indicating a more rational approach to home buying [9]. Group 3: Core Judgment - The core judgment is that real estate will return to its fundamental purpose of providing living spaces, moving away from excessive financialization and profit-driven motives [10][17]. Group 4: Market Predictions - Wang Shi predicts that in the next five years, first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai will see stable housing prices with fluctuations not exceeding 15%, while second-tier cities may experience slight increases, and many third- and fourth-tier cities will face downward pressure on prices [10]. Group 5: Consumer Strategies - Ordinary homebuyers are advised to focus on meeting their living needs rather than viewing real estate solely as an investment [11]. - The importance of location is emphasized, with a focus on areas with population growth and strong industrial bases [12]. - Quality and service are highlighted as key factors in determining property value, with a shift towards properties that offer superior living environments [13]. Group 6: Technological Impact - Wang Shi underscores the role of digital transformation in real estate, with smart homes and communities becoming significant trends, as evidenced by the growth of the smart home market [14]. - Developers are encouraged to evolve from merely constructing homes to providing comprehensive urban services, enhancing their competitive edge [14]. Group 7: Historical Context - Wang Shi's historical predictions have proven accurate, such as his warnings about market bubbles and the transition to a "silver age" of real estate, showcasing his foresight and understanding of market dynamics [5][15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and opportunities faced by the private equity industry in China as it enters a "stock era," emphasizing the need for innovative strategies to revitalize existing assets and adapt to changing market conditions [2][4]. Group 1: Current Situation and Challenges - The private equity industry in China has developed over 25 years, benefiting from the economic reforms, but now faces a stock game characterized by a dual structure [2][4]. - The industry has accumulated over 14 trillion yuan in assets and 230,000 projects, but fundraising and investment activity have declined in recent years [4]. - Despite market pressures, the secondary market for private equity saw a 46% year-on-year increase in transaction volume in 2024, indicating some recovery [4][5]. Group 2: Solutions and Directions - The S Fund plays a crucial role in the venture capital market by seeking certainty amid uncertainty, especially in managing the 14 trillion yuan of existing assets [5][6]. - The S Fund market is evolving, with state-owned enterprises and financial institutions participating as long-term investors, focusing on asset transactions and exits [6][7]. - The S Fund is categorized into transaction-oriented and function-oriented types, with many provinces establishing state-owned S Funds to activate regional financial resources [7][8]. Group 3: Practices and Exploration - The company has managed 26 billion yuan in assets in Jiangsu and has collaborated with various institutions to enhance post-investment management and develop diverse investment strategies [8]. - Over 15 years, the company has assisted in establishing government-guided fund systems and invested in over 400 sub-funds, totaling more than 60 billion yuan [8]. - The company emphasizes the importance of a robust database and transaction structure design capabilities to excel as an S Fund management institution [8].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the National Day holiday, the property market showed some resilience in terms of week - on - week transaction volume, with the second - hand housing market performing better than the new housing market. However, due to the high base formed by the "924" housing policies in 2024, both new and second - hand housing transactions had negative year - on - year growth [1]. - The real estate industry is accelerating the transformation from "incremental expansion" to "stock quality improvement", and structural differentiation between and within cities may become the norm in the future [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Transaction Volume Analysis - **Week - on - Week Transaction Volume**: 15 key cities' second - hand housing transaction area reached 2.15 million square meters, a 6% week - on - week increase, while 38 key cities' new housing transaction area was 2.74 million square meters, a 23% week - on - week decrease [1]. - **Year - on - Year Transaction Volume**: Affected by the high base in 2024, the year - on - year growth rate of second - hand housing transactions turned negative for the first time after seven consecutive weeks of positive growth, with a decline of 13%, and new housing transactions decreased by 24% for the third consecutive week. Compared with the same period in 2023, second - hand housing transactions maintained high - level activity with an 8% increase, while new housing transactions still declined by 18% [2]. - **By City Tier**: In the second - hand housing market, first - tier cities cooled down, with a 5% week - on - week decline and a 19% year - on - year decrease. Second - tier cities performed well, with a 25% week - on - week increase and an 8% year - on - year decrease. Third - tier cities continued to face pressure, with 4% and 6% week - on - week and year - on - year decreases respectively. In the new housing market, transactions in all city tiers generally declined, with second - tier cities showing some structural resilience with an 11% year - on - year increase despite a 15% week - on - week decline [3]. Key City Observations - **First - Tier Cities**: In the second - hand housing market, Beijing decreased by 31% week - on - week, while Shanghai and Shenzhen increased by 7% and 49% respectively. In the new housing market, first - tier cities' transaction area decreased by 36% week - on - week, with Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou decreasing by 47%, 44%, 32%, and 12% respectively [27]. - **Other Key Cities**: Hangzhou's second - hand housing transaction area increased by 23% week - on - week, and new housing decreased by 57%. Chengdu's second - hand housing increased by 27% week - on - week, and new housing decreased by 18% [28]. Housing Price Observation - From October 6 - 12, the weekly listing prices of second - hand houses in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen decreased by 0.18%, 0.41%, and 0.42% respectively week - on - week. Compared with the week before the "924" policy last year, the listing prices in these three cities still decreased, with declines of 2.9%, 9.3%, and 9.2% respectively [54]. Policy Analysis - The natural resources department issued the "Urban Stock Space Revitalization and Optimization Planning Guide", indicating that China's urban development has entered the "stock era". - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, the real estate market will focus on "urban renewal", "good houses", and the "new real estate development model". The construction of "good houses" will compete with traditional second - hand houses, and the reform of the pre - sale system and strengthened fund supervision under the "new model" are expected to reshape the industry's development logic and restore market confidence [6].