也许您也深切感受到：市场越来越"难以预测"：个别品牌凭借一款单品引爆市场，而有的 却陷入"不投流没生意，投了难盈利"的增长困境。 其实，这也意味着2025年中国快速消费品市场步入以结构调整为核心的精细化增长阶段。 "价值深耕" 成为企业破局的核心命题，这背后是五大核心趋势正在深刻重塑消费逻辑与竞 争格局。 2 025年，消费平替已不再是简单的低价替代，而是消费者对"质价比"的理性权衡，这 种 趋 势 在 过 去 四 年 持 续 深 化 。 《 2025年中国购物者报告，系列一》 显 示 ， 在 包 装 食 品、饮料、家庭护理和个人护理四大类目中，消费者均在积极寻找更经济实惠的替代 选择。 这种趋势也推动了 本土品牌 进一步崛起，在报告追踪的2 7个快消品类中，近半数品类 出现本土品牌抢占外资品牌市场份额的情况。2024年，本土品牌整体市场份额已攀升 至76%。同时，品类内部呈现显著分化：高端面巾纸、瓶装水、个人清洁用品等销售 额下滑，为白牌和自有品牌带来增长窗口；而高端果汁、冲泡咖啡等品类凭借产品创 新仍实现超市场均值的增速。 这一洞察的核心在于，消费者选择已从"单纯省钱"转向"精明消费"，品质与价格的精 细 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Chinese fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market is stabilizing in 2025 after a flat performance in 2024, with a 1.3% year-on-year sales growth in the first three quarters, driven by a 3.8% increase in sales volume [1] - The average selling price in the FMCG market has decreased by 2.4%, a reduction compared to the 3.4% decline in 2024, reflecting a trend towards price stabilization [1] Market Trends - The decrease in promotional activities has contributed to price stabilization, with the contribution of promotions to FMCG sales dropping from 24.1% to 23% [2] - Nearly 80% of the growth in the FMCG market in 2025 is attributed to third to fifth-tier cities, with sales volume increasing by 4%-6%, offsetting a 2%-3% decline in average selling prices [2] - The main drivers of growth include ongoing urbanization and robust local consumption, with more retailers and FMCG brands expanding into lower-tier cities [2] Category Performance - Packaged food categories have shown the fastest growth, with core staple foods and snacks driving a 3.4% increase in sales [2] - Household care products grew by 3.3%, supported by stable demand for cleaning supplies, while personal care categories showed signs of recovery with a 1.1% year-on-year growth [2] - In contrast, beverage sales declined by 1.1%, despite a 3.6% increase in volume, due to a 4.6% drop in average selling prices driven by intensified brand competition and market pressures [3] Consumer Behavior - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior, with a trend towards quality and price balance rather than solely seeking the lowest price [2] - The "consumption substitution" phenomenon remains prevalent, although some categories like juice and chocolate continue to experience premiumization [3] Channel Dynamics - Traditional retail channels are contracting, with traditional hypermarkets and convenience stores seeing a further decline in their share of FMCG sales [4] - Emerging channels such as warehouse membership stores, snack collection stores, and discount stores are experiencing rapid growth, with year-on-year increases of 40%, 51%, and 92% respectively [4] - The rise of snack collection stores is particularly significant for foreign brands, which view these channels as crucial for business growth and market penetration [5][6] Retailer Strategies - Retailers are increasingly focusing on convenience, value, and brand differentiation, with a trend towards developing private labels that offer innovative products rather than just low prices [6] - Collaboration between retailers and brands is becoming more common, blurring the lines between retail and brand ownership [6]

Core Insights - The report highlights the overall performance of China's fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a stable growth trend with a 1.3% year-on-year increase in sales, driven primarily by volume growth of 3.8% despite a decline in average prices by 2.4% [23][24][25]. Market Performance - The FMCG market in China experienced a sales growth of 1.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable 3.8% increase in volume and a 2.4% decrease in average prices [23][24]. - Lower-tier cities (third to fifth tier) contributed 80% of the market growth, becoming the main growth engine, while first and second-tier cities showed relatively flat performance due to slow economic recovery and the trend of "consumption substitution" [23][24][30]. Category Dynamics - **Packaged Foods**: Sales increased by 3.4%, with stable demand for core staple and snack foods. Instant noodles and nutritional supplements performed well, while chocolate and candy continued to decline [33][34]. - **Beverages**: Overall sales decreased by 1.1%, despite a 3.6% increase in volume, with average prices dropping by 4.6%. Milk and yogurt saw significant declines, while juice and beer categories experienced growth [41][42]. - **Personal Care**: Sales grew by 1.1%, ending a three-year decline, with strong performance in makeup and toothpaste, although skincare faced intensified competition and price reductions [46][47]. - **Household Care**: Sales rose by 3.3%, with strong performance in toilet paper and facial tissues, although average prices declined [47]. Price Dynamics - The "consumption substitution" trend continued into 2025, with average price declines narrowing from 3.4% in 2024 to 2.4% in 2025, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards balancing quality and price [7][51]. - Some categories, such as juice and chocolate, maintained a premium positioning, while toothpaste was the only non-food beverage category to sustain stable premiumization [51][55]. Channel Dynamics - **Offline Channels**: Traditional formats like hypermarkets and convenience stores continued to shrink, while new formats such as warehouse membership stores, snack shops, and discount stores expanded rapidly, with growth rates of 40%, 51%, and 92% respectively [8][9]. - **E-commerce**: The e-commerce channel maintained a growth rate of 7%, with penetration increasing from 37% in 2024 to 39% in 2025. Platforms like Douyin and Pinduoduo became key growth drivers, accounting for over 40% of total FMCG e-commerce sales [8][9][11]. Implications for Brands - Brands must gain deep insights into consumer needs across different channels and capture the "moments of truth" that trigger purchase decisions to create products and experiences that resonate with consumers [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of convenience and value-for-money in future channel strategies, highlighting the need for innovation driven by consumer insights to maintain competitiveness in a complex environment [10][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Chinese fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market is stabilizing, with a 1.3% year-on-year sales growth in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by a 3.8% increase in volume and a 2.4% decrease in average price [14][17][18] - Lower-tier cities (third to fifth tier) are identified as the main growth engine, contributing 80% of market growth, supported by urbanization, brand penetration strategies, and new retail channels [14][26][47] - The performance of different categories shows divergence, with packaged food and household care leading growth at 3.4% and 3.3% respectively, while the beverage category declined by 1.1% due to price competition and market shifts [29][39][46] Group 2 - The "consumption substitution" trend continues in 2025 but is slowing down, with average price declines narrowing from 3.4% in 2024 to 2.4% in 2025, indicating consumers are weighing quality against price [2][15][49] - New retail channels are experiencing structural changes, with traditional offline channels shrinking while warehouse membership stores, snack collection stores, and discount stores are expanding rapidly, with growth rates of 40%, 51%, and 92% respectively [2][59][60] - E-commerce channels are also growing at 7%, with platforms like Douyin and Pinduoduo becoming major drivers, accounting for over 40% of total FMCG e-commerce sales [2][59] Group 3 - The report highlights that the FMCG market is entering a new phase driven by demand, where brands must adapt to fragmented and polarized retail landscapes to seize growth opportunities [58] - The average selling price in the FMCG market is stabilizing, with promotional contributions to sales decreasing from 24.1% to 23.0%, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior towards quality and price balance [18][49] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding consumer needs and adapting product offerings and pricing strategies to achieve sustainable growth in the evolving market [2][58]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Chinese fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market shows signs of stabilization in 2025, with a sales growth of 1.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters, driven by a 3.8% increase in volume and a 2.4% decrease in average price [9][12][10] - Lower-tier cities (third to fifth tier) contributed approximately 80% of the market growth, benefiting from urbanization, brand penetration strategies, and the expansion of new retail channels [9][20] - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior, where price sensitivity is balanced with quality considerations, leading to a stabilization in average prices after a significant decline in previous years [10][43] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The FMCG market in China experienced a mild growth in 2025, with a notable performance in the first quarter, which saw a 2.7% increase year-on-year [12] - Sales in lower-tier cities are a key growth driver, with a volume increase of 4-6% offsetting price declines [20][39] Category Dynamics - Packaged food and household care categories led the growth with increases of 3.4% and 3.3% respectively, while the beverage category faced a decline of 1.1% [24][25] - The personal care category showed signs of recovery with a 1.1% growth after several years of decline [34] Price Dynamics - The "consumption upgrade" trend continued into 2025, with average prices decreasing by 2.4%, although the rate of decline has slowed compared to 2024 [10][43] - Promotional activities have decreased, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior towards a more balanced consideration of price and quality [13][43] Emerging Channel Dynamics - New retail formats such as warehouse membership stores, snack collection stores, and discount stores are rapidly expanding, with growth rates of 40%, 51%, and 92% respectively [54][55] - E-commerce channels also showed strong growth, with an increase from 2% to 7% in the first three quarters of 2025 [54][56] Implications for Brands - Brands must adapt to the evolving retail landscape, leveraging data and technology to create demand and navigate the fragmented market [53] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding consumer dynamics to seize opportunities in the new growth cycle [53]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Chinese fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market is stabilizing in 2025 after a flat performance in 2024, with a year-on-year sales growth of 1.3% in the first three quarters, driven by a 3.8% increase in volume, while average prices decreased by 2.4% [3][4] - The growth in the FMCG market is primarily attributed to lower-tier cities, which accounted for nearly 80% of the growth, with sales in these markets increasing by 4-6% year-on-year [4][7] - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior towards valuing quality and price-performance ratio over merely seeking low prices, indicating a structural adjustment in the market [3][4] Market Dynamics - The packaging food category experienced the fastest growth, with an overall sales increase of 3.4%, driven by stable demand for core staple foods and snacks [8] - Household care products saw a sales increase of 3.3%, attributed to stable cleaning habits and innovative products, while personal care grew by 1.1% [8] - Beverage sales declined by 1.1%, influenced by intensified competition and the impact of ready-to-drink beverages [8][9] Channel Trends - New retail formats such as warehouse membership stores, snack collection stores, and discount stores are rapidly expanding, with growth rates of 40%, 51%, and 92% respectively, reflecting consumer preference for high cost-performance and convenience [10] - Instant retail O2O channels reversed last year's decline, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.9% in the third quarter, driven by the popularity of delivery services and increased product variety [10] - E-commerce channels, particularly social e-commerce and platforms emphasizing cost-performance, continue to gain market share, with Douyin and Pinduoduo together accounting for over 40% of FMCG e-commerce sales [13] Strategic Recommendations - The report suggests that retailers are increasingly taking on roles traditionally held by brand manufacturers, accelerating the development of private labels, which have seen an average annual growth of 44% over the past two years [14] - The "C.O.R.E." strategic framework proposed by Bain aims to help brand manufacturers achieve sustainable growth by focusing on demand systems, product offerings, channel routes, and execution [14][15] - Brands must redefine their relationships with retailers and platforms, viewing each channel as an ecosystem for innovation and value co-creation to seize opportunities in the evolving FMCG market [14][15]

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is entering a "stock era" where consumption per capita has peaked, leading to dual pressure on volume and price. This shift necessitates a change in investment logic, with leading companies focusing on shareholder returns and high dividend yields to provide a safety margin [5][18] - Brands are adapting to the trend of consumption substitution by enhancing product cost-effectiveness or quality-price ratios, which may lead to a restructuring of the industry landscape [5] - There are localized opportunities benefiting from consumption upgrades, particularly in categories like juice and liquid milk, where consumers are willing to pay more for improved quality [5] - The emergence of niche products catering to specific consumer groups, particularly among Generation Z, is noted, with these products often having emotional attributes and social relevance [5] - Changes in traffic and channel dynamics present new opportunities for smaller and new brands, with the growth of discount supermarkets and high-end membership stores expected to drive industry growth [5] - Domestic food and beverage brands are increasingly looking to expand overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia, where the market for snacks is projected to exceed $20 billion in 2024, presenting significant growth potential [5] Summary by Sections 1. Characteristics of the Stock Era - The overall consumption market has shown moderate recovery, with retail sales in China reaching 32.39 trillion yuan from January to August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [14] - The food and beverage industry shows internal differentiation, with some sub-sectors like fresh meat and edible oils experiencing growth, while others like liquor and beer face declines [15] 2. Brand Breakthrough Paths in Food and Beverage - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing product value propositions to maintain competitive advantages amid rising consumption substitution trends [5] - It highlights the significance of localized consumption upgrades in specific product categories, which can drive higher consumer spending [5] 3. Sub-industry Analysis - The report provides detailed insights into various sub-industries, including liquor, beer, dairy products, condiments, snacks, and soft drinks, analyzing their performance and market dynamics [7] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading companies in the food and beverage sector are increasingly focusing on shareholder returns, with a notable rise in dividend rates, particularly in the liquor industry [33]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Pet Food Industry - The pet food industry is experiencing a significant trend towards domestic high-end products, with companies like Guobao and Zhongchong performing exceptionally well. Sales growth for the industry from January to May was approximately 17%, with Guobao's online growth at about 49% and Zhongchong's online growth between 25% and 30% [1][2][4]. - Guobao's sub-brand, Freigate, is expected to open up long-term growth potential, with an estimated profit of 800 million yuan for the year and a low valuation, suggesting a potential for increased investment [1][4]. - Zhongchong's Wanpi brand showed strong performance in the first half of the year, with an expected profit of 440-450 million yuan, and optimistic projections for next year at 580-600 million yuan [1][4]. Restaurant Industry - The restaurant industry has entered a consumption replacement cycle, with positive outlooks for Yum China, Xiaocaiyuan, and Green Tea. Xiaocaiyuan is projected to achieve a profit of around 700 million yuan, corresponding to a valuation of about 14 times [1][5]. - Green Tea is noted for its higher cost-performance ratio, while Yum China benefits from growth in takeout and KFC business [1][5]. Beverage Industry - The tea beverage sector is seeing attention on brands like Guming and Mixue, with Guming expected to exceed 2 billion yuan in profit and a continuous growth in store openings [1][5]. Automotive Industry - Xiaomi's automotive business is projected to significantly increase production capacity by the end of 2025, supporting a sales target of over 400,000 units this year and an expected 700,000 to 900,000 units next year. The Ultra version models have a high sales ratio, with an average price of about 300,000 yuan, enhancing gross margins [1][7]. Core Insights and Arguments Performance Trends - The overall performance of the new consumption sector has shown signs of a pullback since early June, particularly in the food and beverage industry post the 618 shopping festival. However, the rise of domestic high-end pet food brands is notable, with four out of the top five brands on Tmall being domestic [2][4]. - Guobao's revenue growth in the second quarter is expected to be around 25%, despite a 5%-10% decline in overseas OEM revenue due to trade tensions [2][4]. Investment Recommendations - The pet food industry is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity, with strong recommendations for Guobao and Zhongchong [1][4]. - In the restaurant sector, investment opportunities are identified in Yum China, Xiaocaiyuan, and Green Tea, with Xiaocaiyuan's expansion and profitability being particularly highlighted [1][5]. Market Dynamics - The gold and jewelry industry is experiencing a shift towards differentiation, with companies like Laopu benefiting from this trend. Despite a 20% decline in overall industry volume in the second quarter, certain companies continue to perform well [2][24]. - The cosmetics industry is facing a systemic pullback, but long-term growth potential remains strong for companies like Maogeping, Shangmei, and Jinbo Biological, which are expected to achieve annual growth rates of 20%-30% [23][25]. Other Important Insights - The pet supplies sector is also highlighted for its potential, with companies like Yiyi, Tianyuan, and Yuanfei Pet showing stable growth and significant opportunities in brand operations [21][22]. - The personal care sector is expected to rebound in the second half of the year, with companies like Baiya expected to recover from short-term volatility and achieve growth rates of over 30% [20][22]. This comprehensive overview captures the key insights and trends across various industries, highlighting potential investment opportunities and market dynamics.

Core Insights - The consumer market in China is showing a moderate recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5% in the urban fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market for the first half of 2025, driven primarily by beverages, which grew by 5.6% [1] - The service consumption sector is on the rise, with a notable 8.7% increase in foot traffic in the out-of-home consumption market [2] - The retail landscape is evolving, with significant performance disparities among major retailers, as evidenced by a 1.1 percentage point decline in market share for the top ten retailers [4] Group 1: Market Performance - The FMCG market's growth is supported by positive trends in beverages, food, household cleaning, and personal care products, while dairy products lag behind [1] - The retail sales of convenience stores decreased by 3.6%, while small supermarkets saw a 7.3% increase in sales [3] - The overall retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% in the first half of the year, with final consumption expenditure contributing over 50% [1] Group 2: Retail Channel Insights - Membership stores are gaining traction, with an overall penetration rate increase of 3.6 percentage points in the first half of 2025, driven by strong performances from Sam's Club [8][9] - Traditional supermarkets are transitioning to hard discount models, with companies like Zhongbai Group and Jiajiayue achieving rapid growth in their discount formats [12] - E-commerce channels experienced a 6.9% increase in sales, with platforms like Douyin and JD Group showing significant growth in penetration rates [13][15] Group 3: Consumer Behavior Trends - Consumers are increasingly sensitive to price while also valuing experiential aspects of shopping, leading to a demand for higher quality and functionality in products [17] - The 618 shopping festival saw a surge in demand for essential goods, with consumers diversifying their purchasing channels and seeking more personalized products [17] - Instant retail is redefining convenience, with platforms integrating resources to enhance consumer experiences, achieving over 35% penetration in the first half of 2025 [16]

Core Insights - The article highlights the key findings from the "2025 China Shopper Report, Series One," focusing on consumer preferences in channel selection and the opportunities presented by the "consumption alternative" trend [1] - It notes a decrease in single purchase volume and an increase in demand diversity for hair care products among consumers [1] - The report also discusses global dairy consumption behaviors and trends, emphasizing the strong demand for facial skincare products in Thailand, which is driving rapid category growth [1] - Additionally, the Worldpanel Consumer Index has launched a "Brand Market Certification" service that defines brand market positions using real purchase data across all channels [1] Consumer Behavior Insights - Consumers are increasingly diversifying their purchasing choices, particularly in the hair care category, where the volume of single purchases is declining [1] - The report indicates a shift in consumer preferences towards alternative consumption options, reflecting changing market dynamics [1] Brand Expansion Trends - The article outlines the global trends in dairy consumption, identifying common behaviors and preferences among consumers [1] - It highlights the robust demand for facial skincare products in Thailand, which is contributing to significant growth in this category [1] Market Positioning - The introduction of the "Brand Market Certification" service by Worldpanel aims to provide a clearer understanding of brand positioning in the market based on actual consumer purchasing data [1]