狭义收入增速回升，主因税收推动。 2025 年 1-10 月，全国一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.8% 。其中， 10 月当月同比增速 3.2% ，相比 9 月的 2.6% 边际回升。究其原因，一是，反内卷政策效果持续显现， PPI 降幅继续收窄，对税收收入的拖累边际缓解。二是，在积极政策的带动下，相关行业税收收入 持续改善。从主要分项看，主要税种均有不错表现。一方面，个人所得税收入增速边际回升、高位运行。消费税收入增速也稳中有升。另一方面，增值税、企 业所得税收入增速虽然表现尚可，但是在去年同期基数较低的情况下，增速边际回落。考虑到下半年房地产需求调整，经济增长的内生动能还需增强，宏观积 极政策仍需加码。此外，非税收入降幅继续扩大，除了 2024 年同期高基数的影响，也反映了财政对非税收入的依赖边际减弱。 狭义支出增速回落。 2025 年 1-10 月，全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 2% 。其中， 10 月当月同比增速 -9.8% ，相比 9 月增速 3.1% 有所回落。央、 地财政支出增速分别由 9 月的 3.2% 、 3.1% 降至 -1% 、 -11.9% 。需要提醒的是，本月狭义支出同比回落，虽然与去 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the global monetary and fiscal systems post-2008, particularly after 2020, and their implications for domestic economic and fixed-income asset forecasts [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal and Monetary Changes - The new fiscal framework post-2020 includes large-scale government borrowing to create demand, with debt monetization and refinancing maintaining existing deficits and interest [1]. - Monetary policy has shifted to support fiscal sustainability rather than solely focusing on inflation targets [1]. - The rapid fiscal expansion has led to a preference for equity markets with higher profit elasticity, while nominal variables like CPI have risen quickly, causing interest rates to increase and fluctuate significantly [1][2]. Group 2: Divergence in Economic Indicators - There is a "triple divergence" observed where government leverage increases while household and corporate leverage remains stable or declines, leading to rising interest rates independent of household and corporate recovery [2]. - Despite fiscal efforts and rising government leverage, economic conditions have not improved significantly, yet stock markets continue to rise while bond markets show volatility [2]. - The performance of new economy sectors, particularly technology, diverges from traditional industries, indicating a split in asset performance [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Given the "local divergence," the pursuit of alpha becomes crucial as fixed-income and easily accessible returns have been largely neutralized [3]. - A focus on risk appetite is essential, with attention to tail risks in certain assets, and a strategy of selecting assets based on price and elasticity differentiation [3]. - The convertible bond market shows a strong supply-demand mismatch, necessitating a focus on technology and elastic sectors for a balanced approach [3]. - The REITs market faces ongoing challenges, requiring careful selection of favorable sectors, while bank margins depend on the reduction of funding costs [3].