Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year-on-year from January to October 2025, with a marginal recovery in October at 3.2% compared to 2.6% in September, driven by tax revenue improvements and the effects of anti-involution policies [3] - The national general public budget expenditure grew by 2% year-on-year from January to October 2025, but saw a significant decline in October with a -9.8% growth rate, down from 3.1% in September, indicating a need for continued fiscal support to stabilize the economy [4] - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 2.8% year-on-year from January to October 2025, with a sharp decline of -18.4% in October, attributed to the accelerated adjustment in the real estate market [4] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Measures - To ensure the continuation of proactive policies in the fourth quarter, incremental policies are being implemented, including the deployment of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools in October 2025 [5] - The central government allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits in October 2025, including an additional 200 billion yuan in special bond quotas to support investment construction in certain provinces [5] Group 3: Investment Insights - The analysis indicates a divergence between macroeconomic variables and asset prices, with government leverage increasing while household and corporate leverage remains stable or declines, leading to rising interest rates independent of the recovery in household and corporate sectors [10] - The report suggests that the solid income and interest rate differentials have been largely neutralized, making it crucial to seek alpha in future investments, emphasizing the importance of risk preference and careful asset selection [11]

Group 1: Japan's Economic Outlook - SMBC Nikko Securities economists indicate that despite comments from Bank of Japan policy committee member Naoki Tamura suggesting a tightening stance, the market's view that immediate rate hikes are very difficult is unlikely to change. The uncertainty in Japan's political landscape poses a key challenge to current monetary policy [1] - The market is particularly concerned about the smooth communication between the government and the Bank of Japan, with these worries becoming increasingly prominent [1] Group 2: Thailand's Banking Sector - Fitch Ratings analysts predict that by 2026, the asset quality of Thailand's banking sector may remain weak but stable. Thai banks are actively reducing exposure to high-risk assets and have sufficient capacity to write off impaired loans, enhancing their resilience against non-performing asset pressures [1] - Despite overall economic growth being weak, a sustained low unemployment rate and a declining interest rate environment will help alleviate repayment pressures on borrowers, supporting loan repayments [1] - Thai banks' pre-provision operating profits are expected to remain strong enough to allow for additional loan loss provisions if necessary, thereby cushioning potential asset quality deterioration [1] Group 3: Australia's Monetary Policy Challenges - The Reserve Bank of Australia is increasingly caught in a dilemma, with price stability and full employment pulling in opposite directions. Inflation may exceed expectations while the labor market is weaker than anticipated, complicating policy decisions [2] - KPMG analysts suggest that the Reserve Bank of Australia should consider lowering interest rates at the upcoming meeting to a more stimulative level to support business investment and household spending, thereby bolstering the weak labor market [2] - HSBC analysis indicates that AI appears to be exerting downward pressure on hiring activities, with Australian businesses potentially accelerating cost-cutting measures amid an economic slowdown, increasing the number of at-risk positions [2] Group 4: U.S. Federal Reserve's Policy Outlook - Barclays Bank notes that Powell's comments suggest the FOMC is closer to ending the balance sheet reduction than previously indicated by recent officials. The forecast for the end of the Fed's balance sheet reduction has been significantly advanced from Q1 2026 to December 2024 [2] - TD Securities expects the Fed to announce the end of balance sheet reduction at the October 29 policy meeting, significantly earlier than previously anticipated, with the balance sheet potentially restarting expansion by 2026 due to year-end liquidity pressures [2] Group 5: Global Interest Rate Trends - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the end of the Fed's balance sheet reduction from March 2026 to February 2026, expecting an official announcement in January 2026 [3] - Evercore ISI analysts state that the Fed's Beige Book reinforces the view that the economic outlook has not changed significantly since the September Fed meeting, with signs of economic growth slowing and weak labor demand solidifying expectations for further rate cuts [3] - Citigroup economists highlight that the proposed $350 billion U.S. investment fund agreement by South Korea is expected to be finalized soon, with market expectations shifting significantly regarding the agreement's prospects [4] Group 6: Singapore's Real Estate Market - Citigroup analysts indicate that Singapore's private residential market is expected to see a significant rebound in October after a sharp decline in September, where developer sales fell to only 255 units, an 88% drop from over 2,100 units in August due to a severe shortage of new supply [5]