狭义收入增速回升，主因税收推动。 2025 年 1-10 月，全国一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.8% 。其中， 10 月当月同比增速 3.2% ，相比 9 月的 2.6% 边际回升。究其原因，一是，反内卷政策效果持续显现， PPI 降幅继续收窄，对税收收入的拖累边际缓解。二是，在积极政策的带动下，相关行业税收收入 持续改善。从主要分项看，主要税种均有不错表现。一方面，个人所得税收入增速边际回升、高位运行。消费税收入增速也稳中有升。另一方面，增值税、企 业所得税收入增速虽然表现尚可，但是在去年同期基数较低的情况下，增速边际回落。考虑到下半年房地产需求调整，经济增长的内生动能还需增强，宏观积 极政策仍需加码。此外，非税收入降幅继续扩大，除了 2024 年同期高基数的影响，也反映了财政对非税收入的依赖边际减弱。 狭义支出增速回落。 2025 年 1-10 月，全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 2% 。其中， 10 月当月同比增速 -9.8% ，相比 9 月增速 3.1% 有所回落。央、 地财政支出增速分别由 9 月的 3.2% 、 3.1% 降至 -1% 、 -11.9% 。需要提醒的是，本月狭义支出同比回落，虽然与去 ...

Group 1: Japan's Economic Outlook - SMBC Nikko Securities economists indicate that despite comments from Bank of Japan policy committee member Naoki Tamura suggesting a tightening stance, the market's view that immediate rate hikes are very difficult is unlikely to change. The uncertainty in Japan's political landscape poses a key challenge to current monetary policy [1] - The market is particularly concerned about the smooth communication between the government and the Bank of Japan, with these worries becoming increasingly prominent [1] Group 2: Thailand's Banking Sector - Fitch Ratings analysts predict that by 2026, the asset quality of Thailand's banking sector may remain weak but stable. Thai banks are actively reducing exposure to high-risk assets and have sufficient capacity to write off impaired loans, enhancing their resilience against non-performing asset pressures [1] - Despite overall economic growth being weak, a sustained low unemployment rate and a declining interest rate environment will help alleviate repayment pressures on borrowers, supporting loan repayments [1] - Thai banks' pre-provision operating profits are expected to remain strong enough to allow for additional loan loss provisions if necessary, thereby cushioning potential asset quality deterioration [1] Group 3: Australia's Monetary Policy Challenges - The Reserve Bank of Australia is increasingly caught in a dilemma, with price stability and full employment pulling in opposite directions. Inflation may exceed expectations while the labor market is weaker than anticipated, complicating policy decisions [2] - KPMG analysts suggest that the Reserve Bank of Australia should consider lowering interest rates at the upcoming meeting to a more stimulative level to support business investment and household spending, thereby bolstering the weak labor market [2] - HSBC analysis indicates that AI appears to be exerting downward pressure on hiring activities, with Australian businesses potentially accelerating cost-cutting measures amid an economic slowdown, increasing the number of at-risk positions [2] Group 4: U.S. Federal Reserve's Policy Outlook - Barclays Bank notes that Powell's comments suggest the FOMC is closer to ending the balance sheet reduction than previously indicated by recent officials. The forecast for the end of the Fed's balance sheet reduction has been significantly advanced from Q1 2026 to December 2024 [2] - TD Securities expects the Fed to announce the end of balance sheet reduction at the October 29 policy meeting, significantly earlier than previously anticipated, with the balance sheet potentially restarting expansion by 2026 due to year-end liquidity pressures [2] Group 5: Global Interest Rate Trends - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the end of the Fed's balance sheet reduction from March 2026 to February 2026, expecting an official announcement in January 2026 [3] - Evercore ISI analysts state that the Fed's Beige Book reinforces the view that the economic outlook has not changed significantly since the September Fed meeting, with signs of economic growth slowing and weak labor demand solidifying expectations for further rate cuts [3] - Citigroup economists highlight that the proposed $350 billion U.S. investment fund agreement by South Korea is expected to be finalized soon, with market expectations shifting significantly regarding the agreement's prospects [4] Group 6: Singapore's Real Estate Market - Citigroup analysts indicate that Singapore's private residential market is expected to see a significant rebound in October after a sharp decline in September, where developer sales fell to only 255 units, an 88% drop from over 2,100 units in August due to a severe shortage of new supply [5]